# WTF happened to improve Trump’s odds of re-election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 9, 2020, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869 "2020-07-09T21:14:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/81 "2020-07-11T17:43:09Z")
> [@guizot](#): > > They’ll be framing the protests as the end of the world, and Trump as the only way to stop it. And stupid people will be falling for it. Sure, there are stupid people who will accept anything Trump says. But there’s not enough of them to win Trump re-election. Trump should realize he can’t just replay his 2016 campaign. He was able to slide through that one because all he had to do was make outlandish promises of what he would do _if_ he was President. But he’s now been President for over three years. There are going to be people - even among those who voted for him in 2016 - who will now being looking at his record. In 2016, for example, there were people who voted against Trump because they thought building a border wall was a dumb idea. In 2020, those people will still think it’s a dumb idea and will vote against Trump again. But they’ll be joined by the people who voted for Trump in 2016 because they loved the idea of a border wall and are now disappointed with Trump because he never built it. ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/82 "2020-07-11T17:48:26Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Sure, there are stupid people who will accept anything Trump says. But there’s not enough of them to win Trump re-election. You have a faith in the American public which I’ve lost over the last four years, mainly because I’ve seen how social media has become such an effective political weapon. I’ll be happy to be proven wrong. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/83 "2020-07-11T18:08:06Z")
Y’know what? I say if someone’s getting scared at signs and portents… _ **good** _. BE scared. And do something about it - preferrably ensuring there IS a large vote against him. Being assured that there was no way he could make it all the way was exactly how the other Republican contenders and the Democratic campaign failed to stop him early when they could have. So act as if he CAN win. BUT do not panic, rather, as a consequence _also act like you can prevent that_. Organize, educate, get out the vote. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/84 "2020-07-11T18:43:50Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Although he did not have an opponent who specialized in childish teasing, nor did he face an opposition voter base who’s energized by childish teasing. > > Biden may be a less teasable name than Dukakis, but Trump & his motley crew of followers are far better teasers. I’m pretty sure Trump’s base is much smaller than Reagan’s was. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/85 "2020-07-11T18:47:49Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > This is the dumbest thing that I have seen and to be fair I have seen it in many, may other places. Even Trump’s campaign has an ad running that shows rioting and calls it “Joe Biden’s America.” > > The ad used footage from Trump’s America. > **This is Trump’s America.** > > This unrest is happening under Donnie’s watch. Most Americans will see that he owns it - I concede this includes a fair number of yokels who love every minute of it, but a much larger number don’t see racial unrest as a feature and can correctly note on a calendar who was in the White House when it occured. > > Remember: A lot of those same racists [voted for Obama](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/07/obama-won-lots-of-votes-from-racially-prejudiced-whites-and-some-of-them-supported-trump/) and it won’t take many of them to peel back their support to Obama’s vice president - literally a tiny percentage would do it - to swing the election. Perhaps I didn’t make my point very well. Yes, Biden has nothing to do with causing this unrest and certainly has no role in managing it today. But the volume of _motivated_ law-and-order voters is pretty well proportional to the volume of scary news. What Trump’s ad is saying is “If you want more of that, of those people being allowed, nay encouraged, to run wild in the streets, then let Biden be elected. If you want it stopped and stopped cold, vote for the rightists. Vote for Trump.” It doesn’t have to be factually accurate to be persuasive to the people it’s trying to persuade. The more there is unrest, the more there is unrest loudly trumpeted on even the slightly-right media, the bigger Trump’s turnout will be. THAT is how that’s Biden’s Achilles Heel. Specifically, the volume of unrest and the media treatment is something he has almost no influence over. From his POV it’s an uncontrolled risk. The second way greater unrest is harmful to Biden is he will be forced to take a position on it. And the more, and more aggressive unrest, the stronger a position he will need to take to keep his left wing on-side and engaged. Note that “stronger” doesn’t mean more repressive. It means taking more account of, making larger promises over, making it more of a centerpiece issue in his advertising platform. Unfortunately for him, it’s hard to imagine a platform that satisfies even everyone on the various shades of the left much less everyone on the various shades of the left while also avoiding riling as many or more rightists into a frenzy of R voting. This race is all about turnout. Anything that scares whitebread suburban man & woman runs the risk of creating massive R turnout. While Biden is stuck trying to triangulate between violence excusers, legitimate racial grievants asking for a fairer future, and others looking for reparations. Plus a few other factions I haven’t mentioned. It’s excellent for Biden’s chances that Trump is comprehensively mismanaging any and every challenge Fate throws at him. It’s just unfortunate that this particular problem (racial unrest mixed with violent looting) is so neuralgic across the 4-square checkerboard of R vs D and W vs B. Threading a happy path through that minefield has challenged better natural politicians than Biden. To the degree the unrest dies down and is replaced by almost any other challenge for Trump to screw up bigly Biden will gain. Or so it seems to this avowed Progressive. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/86 "2020-07-11T19:08:54Z")
They are gonna push this Pedo thing, I think- Larry Correia, the controversial SF author, just posted a edited and faked video saying Joe is a pedo. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/87 "2020-07-11T19:21:44Z")
The problem is, Donnie’s an even bigger pedo. The bigger problem is that voters are wise to the smear tactics that will be employed and people motivated to vote against Trump won’t likely care too much if Biden’s not perfect. There are some exceptions of course: if they can succeed in making Biden look like a rapist or a racist, then that could cause damage among his key constituencies. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/88 "2020-07-11T19:27:02Z")
Exactly. Remember the Bush dynasty, the Clintons? Trump beat both of them. The Blue Wall? This is a guy who for the last 5 years has taken conventional wisdom and _fucked it in its ass_, (without its consent, natch). He can win. He has an uncanny ability to identify what enough people will support and buck trends. Attacking the Blue Wall was supposed to be laughable…yeah not so much. He is attacking Democratic-run urban centers and states, which tend to be the hardest hit by Covid. And unrest. He is betting that since most peoples direct link with the Government is state and local and the hardest hit tend to be democratic (yes I know red states are being hit as well) then enough people might switch over to him, blaming the Democrats, like so much former industrial states voters supported him in 2016. The attacks on NYS and California being failed states are with major “only I can fix them” undertones. It’s a risky bet, but he has made them before and won. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/89 "2020-07-11T19:43:35Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > But I wholeheartedly agree with your diagnosis about the unrest. It’s helping Trump now and IF it continues unabated through the election it will cost the Ds, including but not only, Biden _many_ percentage points of support. This is for **chappachula** too, if that was the case it does not explain why Trump polling did go into free fall while that is going, I will have to say that most of the people are figuring out that what the right is trying to do, to equate peaceful protesters with violent ones is backfiring and hard. This is because one should not forget that a lot of the peaceful protesters are more numerous and more people supports them, Trump and henchmen equating them with the most violent ones and his asinine default protection of confederate traitors and police bad apples is not really helping Trump. Particularly when one has not to forget that Trump, being Trump, decided to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory from public opinion in the most despicable of ways: > **[Peaceful Protesters Tear-Gassed To Clear Way For Trump Church Photo-Op](https://www.npr.org/2020/06/01/867532070/trumps-unannounced-church-visit-angers-church-officials)** > > After U.S. Park Police and National Guard troops pushed demonstrators out of Lafayette Park, President Trump walked from the White House to St. John's Church where he posed for pictures with a Bible. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/90 "2020-07-11T19:49:52Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > He is betting that since most peoples direct link with the Government is state and local and the hardest hit tend to be democratic (yes I know red states are being hit as well) then enough people might switch over to him, blaming the Democrats, like so much former industrial states voters supported him in 2016. The attacks on NYS and California being failed states are with major “only I can fix them” undertones. > It’s a risky bet, but he has made them before and won. Too bad that that is what Trump claimed to be the best at, Trump is not fixing things, he is making things worse and the opening of schools is bound to become another nightmare for Mr. ‘I don’t take responsibility at all’. ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/91 "2020-07-11T20:34:00Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > He is betting that since most peoples direct link with the Government is state and local and **the hardest hit tend to be democratic (yes I know red states are being hit as well)** There are all sorts of possibilities for Trump to win this election, but your analysis here is devoid of any relationship with the current reality. Democratic-controlled states are the ones hit hardest? Have you even been following the news for the past few weeks? Here is a list of states that, according to [Harvard University’s statistics](https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/), have the highest infection rates over the last couple of weeks: | State | New Cases/100,000/day | | --- | --- | | Arizona | 49.6 | | Florida | 42.3 | | Louisiana | 32.2 | | South Carolina | 30.4 | | Texas | 26.8 | | Georgia | 26.7 | | Alabama | 26.4 | | Nevada | 24.6 | | Mississippi | 23.1 | | Idaho | 22.7 | | Tennessee | 21.9 | | California | 19.2 | | Arkansas | 18.8 | | Utah | 18.5 | The national 7-day rolling average for the United States is currently (July 11) at 16 new cases per day, per 100,000 people. By my count, of the 14 states that have infection rates above the national average, 12 went for Trump in 2016, 11 have Republican Governors, and those same 11 also have a Republican-controlled state legislature. Six of the top seven states are completely Republican dominated at the state level. Here are the 12 states with the lowest new infection rates over the last few weeks: | State | New Cases/100,000/day | | --- | --- | | Vermont | 1.0 | | New Hampshire | 1.6 | | Maine | 1.8 | | Hawaii | 2.0 | | Connecticut | 2.3 | | New Jersey | 3.1 | | Massachusetts | 3.2 | | New York | 3.3 | | Rhode Island | 4.1 | | Michigan | 4.8 | | Montana | 5.2 | | Pennsylvania | 5.4 | | Colorado | 5.4 | | Wyoming | 5.4 | Quite a lot of blue states right there, and at least a couple of really important swing states with Democratic governors. Tell me again how blaming the state governments for the coronavirus crisis is going to help Republicans. Hell, even plenty of New York Democrats thought Andrew Cuomo was a douchebag six months ago, but his popularity ratings have gone through the roof since March. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/92 "2020-07-11T20:53:39Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > > [@LSLGuy](#): > > > > But I wholeheartedly agree with your diagnosis about the unrest. It’s helping Trump now and IF it continues unabated through the election it will cost the Ds, including but not only, Biden _many_ percentage points of support. > > This is for **chappachula** too, if that was the case it does not explain why Trump polling did go into free fall while that is going, I will have to say that most of the people are figuring out that what the right is trying to do, to equate peaceful protesters with violent ones is backfiring and hard. This is because one should not forget that a lot of the peaceful protesters are more numerous and more people supports them, Trump and henchmen equating them with the most violent ones and his asinine default protection of confederate traitors and police bad apples is not really helping Trump. > > Particularly when one has not to forget that Trump, being Trump, decided to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory from public opinion in the most despicable of ways: > > [Peaceful Protesters Tear-Gassed To Clear Way For Trump Church Photo-Op : NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/06/01/867532070/trumps-unannounced-church-visit-angers-church-officials) This is exactly right. People are forgetting that Trump’s numbers fell hard the first few weeks after George Floyd’s death (during which most of the riots happened). They was still very very low compared to even 2 months ago. People blamed Trump for the issues going on. And importantly, independents blamed Trump by a wide margin. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/93 "2020-07-11T21:31:04Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > Sure, maybe I’m worried a little bit about the rioting. But that’s all happening miles away so I don’t feel it as an immediate danger. > > Contrast that with the virus. Correctly or not, I feel it is an immediate, and deadly, danger to my family and other loved ones. Sure. In fact, I’m in much greater danger of getting killed in a car accident going home tonight, than from these notional anarchist rioters. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/94 "2020-07-11T21:53:39Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > They are gonna push this Pedo thing, I think- Larry Correia, the controversial SF author, just posted a edited and faked video saying Joe is a pedo. Because the Tara Reade thing really stuck… I may be optimistic where I shouldn’t be but I don’t think the mainstream media that Trump has derided and sicced his followers on wil be as quick provide the false equivalence between Donnie and Biden that they did with Hillary and Donnie. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/95 "2020-07-11T22:13:58Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > But the volume of _motivated_ law-and-order voters is pretty well proportional to the volume of scary news. What Trump’s ad is saying is “If you want more of that, of those people being allowed, nay encouraged, to run wild in the streets, then let Biden be elected. If you want it stopped and stopped cold, vote for the rightists. Vote for Trump.” > > It doesn’t have to be factually accurate to be persuasive to the people it’s trying to persuade. The more there is unrest, the more there is unrest loudly trumpeted on even the slightly-right media, the bigger Trump’s turnout will be. No, that plan is not going to work. Because when Trump says he will stop the riots cold, people are going to look around and ask “Then why do we still have riots? Why haven’t you stopped them?” Every day there’s rioting, it shows people that Trump cannot stop rioting. And the bigger the problem gets, the worse Trump’s inability to do something about it becomes. As I’ve already said, Trump can’t act like it’s 2016. He can’t just make promises. People expect to see results by now. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/96 "2020-07-11T22:18:24Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > They are gonna push this Pedo thing, I think- Larry Correia, the controversial SF author, just posted a edited and faked video saying Joe is a pedo. Oh no, Biden is going to get sad puppied! ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/97 "2020-07-11T22:47:40Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > Y’know what? I say if someone’s getting scared at signs and portents… _ **good** _ . BE scared. And do something about it - preferrably ensuring there IS a large vote against him. Totally agree! ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/98 "2020-07-11T23:03:08Z")
Fear can also cause paralysis and apathy, though, just as hope can provide energy. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/99 "2020-07-11T23:43:01Z")
Yeah, I never understood the idea that good polls make people less likely to vote. When I think my candidate has a good chance to win, I’m excited to vote for him. When I think he’ll probably lose, I still vote, but I’m not enthusiastic about it. ---
**Author:** ![Kimera757](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kimera757/32/3765_2.png) [@Kimera757](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimera757)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2020, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/100 "2020-07-12T00:00:02Z")
Politico is suggesting that the Republicans have an advantage in voter registration, as in a pandemic environment voters who tend to support Republicans are finding it easier to register. > **[Trump gets some good election news: GOP voter registrations outpace Dems](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/11/trump-voter-registration-355152)** > > A slowdown in adding new voters to the rolls during the pandemic has played to Republicans' advantage. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869.md?page=6)