# WTF happened to improve Trump’s odds of re-election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 9, 2020, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869 "2020-07-09T21:14:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2020, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/141 "2020-07-15T02:31:12Z")
Thank you. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2020, 7:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/142 "2020-07-15T07:51:22Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > About eight people out of ten. That is decent numbers, 80% of the people I know that admitted voting for trump are now “never trumpers”. This is a Biased Sample Fallacy - anecdotal and with confirmation bias. However, Trump doesn’t have to lose 80% of his supporters to lose. Even even if Biden doesn’t pick up a single vote beyond the 66 million Hillary got and Trump gets 97% of his voters to come out for him again, that margin of just 3% don’t even have to vote for Biden, they just simply don’t vote or pick a third party candidate, and that alone will be enough to swing the results. ---
**Author:** ![urbanredneck2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/5f8ce5/32.png) [@urbanredneck2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/urbanredneck2)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2020, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/143 "2020-07-15T14:00:22Z")
Before all this pandemic and rioting occurred I think Trump had a great chance of re-election simply because the economy was doing so well. No I’m not so sure. Also Biden is not proving himself to be a good candidate. I think he is going to pick a minority female for VP and that alone will bring him up. Trump might pull and LBJ and allow someone else to run. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2020, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/144 "2020-07-15T15:17:06Z")
> [@urbanredneck2](#): > > Trump might pull and LBJ and allow someone else to run. We have an existing thread on just that topic. No need to hijack this thread with this speculation. [https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-pull-an-lbj/913700](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-pull-an-lbj/913700) ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2020, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/145 "2020-07-15T15:22:52Z")
> [@urbanredneck2](#): > > Also Biden is not proving himself to be a good candidate. He’s smart enough to stay out of Trump’s way while he (Trump) shoots himself repeatedly in the foot, and racked up double-digit polling leads doing it. Sounds like a pretty good approach to me. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2020, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/146 "2020-07-15T15:45:28Z")
Out of the way is good. Invisible is not. Figuring out where one shades to the other is not easy. Good luck Joe, we’re all\* counting on you! * * * \* net of about 70 million Trumpists. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2020, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/147 "2020-07-15T17:31:02Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Out of the way is good. Invisible is not. He’s had multiple major content speeches recently - there was one yesterday on his environmental plan. It was covered by all the major news networks (even Fox broadcast it - probably so they could call it socialist later). ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2020, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/148 "2020-07-15T20:13:16Z")
No, it’s not at all. It is totally correct, out of 10 Republicans I know well, 8 are now “Dump trumpers”. Does that mean that out of the general population, 80% of those who voted for trump are now dumpers? Not at all. My friends tend to be smarter than the average bear, arent racists or white supremacists, etc. However, it is a good sign- and the Lincoln project and the many leading GOPers backing Biden also show the same trend- many _thinking_ Republicans, those with brains and hearts are wanting to dump trump. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2020, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/149 "2020-07-15T22:47:57Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Out of the way is good. Invisible is not. That’s a bullshit narrative. That you would mindlessly spout a bullshit narrative is not a shock, but you repeating the bullshit narrative doesn’t make it something other than a bullshit narrative. Conservative columnist Jennifer Rubin [points out](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/15/big-bold-normal-biden-speech-climate-change/) today that he made a speech about climate change and also mentions his [call with reporters](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/13/joe-biden-makes-it-clear-that-country-is-ready-big-change/) before that on Monday. [Last week he visited](https://www.wnep.com/article/news/local/lackawanna-county/joe-biden-dunmore-campaign/523-63f4e5de-1f90-46b7-9ebd-ede3ebef5832) his childhood home in battleground state of Pennsylvania. He did a [one-on-one](https://www.wnep.com/article/news/local/lackawanna-county/joe-biden-one-on-one-dunmore/523-3022ca90-fb42-485d-a216-825ff787b531) with the local TV station while there (when was Trump’s last one-on-one that wasn’t on Fox News?). This is just the past couple of weeks. So please, please stop spreading bullshit narratives. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2020, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/150 "2020-07-15T22:49:09Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > It is totally correct I didn’t say you were lying, I said you were statistically insignificant. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2020, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/151 "2020-07-16T01:06:58Z")
So, who the fuck cares? why even bring this up? Did I claim it was statistically significant? Dont you think most SDMBers could figure out that a sample size of ten isnt big enough? Geezcrickeys, it’s like you think this board is populated by MAGA hat wearing morons. I didnt post a “Biased Sample Fallacy” because all I posted was a personal anecdote. I didnt claim in any way shape or form that 80% of all Republicans would go that way. So, go stuff your claim of “Biased Sample Fallacy”. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2020, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/152 "2020-07-16T15:56:16Z")
This is a site devoted to ignorance and anyone who thinks that “well, everyone I know says…” means anything is ignorant. You wanna take it to MPSIMS? Maybe they might care about your immediate group of acquaintances. Use all the anecdotal commentary you want. In a debate forum, it’s useless. Your mommy may have said you were special, and I hate to break your bubble, but most all moms say that to their kids. You are statistically insignificant. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2020, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/153 "2020-07-16T16:52:40Z")
> **[U.S. Party Preferences Have Swung Sharply Toward Democrats](https://news.gallup.com/poll/315734/party-preferences-swung-sharply-toward-democrats.aspx)** > > Americans' party preferences have shifted dramatically this year, from a two-point Republican advantage in January to an 11-point Democratic edge in June. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/PT1IiwNeMQTwwBbwsvaX5i8QuszfOM22V_QV6DfYFRWoTacINXJLbvIDggkIopt1Fkc4iZFxEB4WVgtTp4jzdw525kcB5c8isMKvom0LAgYXxEU-uoMSKt2V1FyfRlE2-2VdnzNHfw=w600-h315-p-k "New item by John Thornton") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/FhYzc9AStaSusD2H6) ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2020, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/154 "2020-07-17T16:37:51Z")
You were already banned from GD and PE before. Then you come out with this. Warning issued. Here’s the deal. One more crack like this of any sort and you’ll be banned from both fora until January 1, 2021. If you can’t behave, you’ll not be allowed to play with the political kids. I hope that’s clear. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2020, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/155 "2020-07-18T03:26:59Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > So, who the fuck cares?.. > > So, go stuff your claim of “Biased Sample Fallacy”. I want to apologize for those two lines, it was pointed out they were maybe over the line, and here in P&E I should not have used that wording. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2020, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/156 "2020-07-18T05:27:37Z")
> [@urbanredneck2](#): > > Trump might pull and LBJ and allow someone else to run. Not possible. I mean, Trump could (though is unlikely to, for all the reasons discussed in the other thread) decline to actually run for a new term. But LBJ announced that he would not run for reelection in March of 1968, allowing the nominating process to mostly run in earnest and for the party to coalesce behind another candidate. Now, it’s July - four months later relative to the respective election days. There will be no other campaigns by Republicans. The party is unlikely to coalesce behind another candidate. Trump could decline to run, but that wouldn’t be ‘pulling an LBJ’. It’d be doing something else entirely. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2020, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/157 "2020-07-18T13:41:22Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > I know several people who would never have voted for President Trump before the increase in anarchy and explicit racial identity politics. Now they want to buy guns and vote for the orange one. Right, because Trump has done so much to keep them safe, and so much to reduce the racial social strife. He’s working really hard to reduce the violence, by arming the military and sending them into the streets. He’s so anti-racial identity politics that he defends the Confederate Flag and Confederate monuments while doing nothing about police killing unarmed black people. Yeah, he’s our savior. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2020, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/158 "2020-07-18T13:54:49Z")
No, the redhat wearing geezers are saying things like “White Power” and running cars over protestors and showing up on the capitol with guns and posting threats on facebook against the governors for trying to stop a pandemic. They’re mocking people for wearing facemasks to keep themselves and others safe. I do agree the optics of street violence is a turnoff for many, and I go agree white Americans feel threatened. I do agree violence and destruction from anti-violence protestors is counter-productive. I do agree the actions of a subset of the group color the behavior of the rest in many people’s minds, and affects their perception of what is occurring. And distorted media portrayals like Fox News and right wing media feed that narrative. None of that makes Trump look any better. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2020, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/159 "2020-07-18T14:26:11Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Btw, where is BLM for that murder? Oh, it doesn’t fit their political narrative? Here is an article worth reading. > **[The intersectionality between BLM and 'so-called' Black on Black killings](https://theblackwallsttimes.com/2020/07/08/the-intersectionality-between-blm-and-so-called-black-on-black-killings/)** > > "It feels almost grotesque comparing the killings of people to try and make a point. I don’t like it at all. I’m only doing it because of the conversations I hear surrounding the two," Mike Creef says. > [@](#): > > … why there is national public outrage when an unarmed black person gets killed by police, and yet not near as much public outrage when a Black child gets killed by the hands of gun violence — as if saying Black Lives Matter (BLM) only applies to some Black lives and not others. I feel like it’s comparing apples and oranges, but I want to address a couple of things with this subject. > > When BLM started, it was to solely address police brutality and the injustices that all too often take place towards the black and brown community. Its goal was not to encompass _every_ issue the Black community faces because it’s far too big a net to cast. Also, **the BLM organization and the BLM movement are two different things.** Most people who protest under the BLM movement are not a part of the organization and aren’t demanding or asking for the same things the organization is. This is a point of confusion for many people. > > First, you will be extremely hard-pressed to find just one person who wouldn’t think that what happened to Secoriea is a complete tragedy. A life was cut entirely too short for no reason at all. Dreams, passions, hobbies all gone in an instant. On the other hand, time and time again in instances of unarmed Black men being killed by the hands of police, there is a portion of the population that needs to be convinced that the victim did not deserve what happened to them. Those killed are always presumed to be deserving solely because it was at the hands of police. Nobody needs to be told that a child killed by a bullet is wrong; many need to be told that an unarmed Black man killed by a bullet is wrong. > > Even when there is video evidence, many times when an unarmed Black man gets killed rarely does the officer gets charged and even less convicted. It’s less than 1% the number of times an officer gets charged when killing an unarmed Black man. If someone shoots and kills a child and is caught, 100% of the time the individual will be charged and receives the maximum sentence. The victim and their family will pretty much always get some sense of justice; of course, they would much rather have the life of their child back. With officer-involved shootings, rarely does the victim and their family gets justice. One is killed by a criminal who will most likely be held responsible for their action; the other is killed by someone who has sworn to serve and protect the public and is rarely held responsible. > > To those who posted about Secoriea’s killing asking why BLM doesn’t protest for her, I challenge you to ask yourself what the motive behind posting was? Did you really ONLY care about her being killed, or was any of it to try and discredit the BLM movement? ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2020, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/160 "2020-07-18T14:56:10Z")
Yeah, portraying the country as a dystopian hellscape might work when you are an outsider, but when your party has been in power for almost 4 years, what’s the message? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869.md?page=9)