# WWII: Battle of Midway...why couldn't the Japanese have pressed on and captured the island? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 1, 2020, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029 "2020-08-01T22:36:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 27
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2021, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/521 "2021-07-03T21:42:02Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > Midway would see daily aerial patrols and subs scouting the area both coming and going to their patrol zones. Take out a few supply ships and nothing will be flying from Midway if it doesn’t run on sea water. Why can’t Japan do the same? Look at a map. The nearest US base is 1500 miles away. Then they would need to sail further west to interdict Japanese ships while not being attacked by planes on Midway. Midway and Japan can fly recon planes out there and spot US ships. Why is Japan magically unable to supply remote bases all of a sudden? How is the US magically running amok west of Midway? ---
**Author:** ![JohnnyEcks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnnyecks/32/18197_2.png) [@JohnnyEcks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnnyEcks)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2021, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/522 "2021-07-03T21:54:21Z")
Because the U.S. had a robust merchant navy and were building cargo ships at a truly astounding rate. The Japanese cargo fleet was too small to supply what they had, and they couldn’t spare the ships to escort them. There’s no way Japan is able to keep Midway supplied. There’s no way they replace lost planes, or even keep them fueled. But it doesn’t matter anyway, because Midway was never the target. Midway was the bait, to force the American fleet into battle. As discussed above, Yamamoto knew the war was lost if it dragged on. He was also a gambler, and he did what a gambler does when he’s got large debts and a small bankroll: bet it all on a long shot and hope. It worked the first time. Not the second. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2021, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/523 "2021-07-03T22:00:33Z")
Sure. But they still had to play the game. Either Japan just quits and surrenders (never gonna happen) or they keep doing the best they can until their inevitable defeat. Japan chose the latter. Given that, they then had to play the game as best they could. If Japan _really_ wanted to keep Midway they would sortie the cargo ships needed and surface fleet needed to see it done. The US, at that point, was not able to roam willy-nilly around the western Pacific. Not even close. Look at the fleet Japan brought to Midway compared to three US fleet carriers (one of which was undergoing repairs as she sailed to Midway). The US would come to dominate the Pacific but it was nowhere near doing that when Midway happened. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2021, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/524 "2021-07-03T22:23:37Z")
Why didn’t the two light carriers Japan had there count for anything? I get they are outclassed by fleet carriers but they are not nothing. The US carriers had their pilots decimated (were there any torpedo bombers left?) and I would think they would be running low on aviation fuel and ordinance. Two light carriers plus the surface fleet might still be a lot of trouble. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2021, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/525 "2021-07-03T22:55:54Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Why didn’t the two light carriers Japan had there count for anything? They weren’t “there”. They were busy attacking friggin’ Alaska. (and using up their bombs and fuel to do so) ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2021, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/526 "2021-07-03T22:57:29Z")
Ah…thanks. Not much use up there. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2021, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/527 "2021-07-03T23:14:26Z")
Nice! ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2021, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/528 "2021-07-03T23:19:39Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Sure. But they still had to play the game. Well, although the IJN was _designed_ to sink the USN, the Japanese had other options rather than attack the USA. The Northern Option, into Siberia was popular until they got whupped by Zhukov. But if they had came back after the nazis invaded the USSR, that could have changed history. The Southern option, taking the DEI, Vietnam and the British colonies, could have been done without US intervention. The IJN would have had their oil, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2021, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/529 "2021-07-03T23:27:35Z")
As an aside: Does anyone here think the US would have accepted a Japanese surrender after the Battle of Midway? Assume Japan insists on a conditional surrender. No way the emperor goes and Japan gets to keep its Chinese conquests. They withdraw from Pacific islands they took (feel free to speculate on other possibilities). Before anyone starts…I know there is _no way_ this could have happened. As mentioned above, it would be a literal death sentence to suggest it in WWII Japan. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2021, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/530 "2021-07-03T23:35:21Z")
_Maybe_, since FDR _really_ wanted to concentrate on the Nazis. The Japanese would have to pull out of pretty much everywhere but maybe Manchuko. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2021, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/531 "2021-07-03T23:38:55Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Does anyone here think the US would have accepted a Japanese surrender after the Battle of Midway? Not after Pearl Harbor. The American public wanted revenge as much as it wanted victory. FDR knew this when he rejected anything other than unconditional surrender just six months after Midway. ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2021, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/532 "2021-07-03T23:44:09Z")
> [@JohnnyEcks](#): > > As discussed above, Yamamoto knew the war was lost if it dragged on. He was also a gambler, and he did what a gambler does when he’s got large debts and a small bankroll: bet it all on a long shot and hope. It worked the first time. Not the second. Yeah. A guy can walk into a casino, drop last $10,000 on number 25 on a roulette wheel, and walk away a big winner (odds are that he’ll be broke though) - but he can’t take his $10,000 and make a series of $10 bets in the hopes of accumulating the $100,000 he needs - there’s only a 1/37 chance of winning in the first case, but an infinitesimal chance of winning in the second case. ---
**Author:** ![OttoDaFe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ottodafe/32/356_2.png) [@OttoDaFe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OttoDaFe)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2021, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/533 "2021-07-03T23:47:16Z")
> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > > [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > > > Why didn’t the two light carriers Japan had there count for anything? > > They weren’t “there”. They were busy attacking friggin’ Alaska. (and using up their bombs and fuel to do so) For the sake of accuracy, the [_Zuihō_](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_aircraft_carrier_Zuih%C5%8D) was attached to Kondo’s Invasion Force, and the [_Hōshō_](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_aircraft_carrier_H%C5%8Dsh%C5%8D) was attached to Yamamoto’s Main Body. The former carried six Zeros, six obsolete “Claude” fighters, and nine or twelve “Kate” carrier attack planes; the latter carried six obsolete “Jean” torpedo planes. (On 6 June, as part of covering CruDiv 7’s withdrawal, _Zuihō_ was ordered to “prepare to attack the enemy carriers.” Given that at the time the USN was suspected of having two fleet carriers and two “converted carriers” in the area, this order smacks of derangement.) ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2021, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/534 "2021-07-03T23:47:21Z")
So, if I get what you are saying right, Yamamoto should have gone all-in on Midway. Withdrawing his forces just meant he made a lot of $10 bets which made winning the war (if it was ever possible) all that much more difficult. ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2021, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/535 "2021-07-04T00:02:00Z")
I was thinking of the Midway battle itself as the big bet - hoping for a smashing defeat of the whole US PacFleet. Taking Midway Island in hopes that it might prove useful in a long war is making the small bets that allow the house edge to whittle you away to nothing. ---
**Author:** ![JohnnyEcks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnnyecks/32/18197_2.png) [@JohnnyEcks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnnyEcks)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2021, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/536 "2021-07-04T01:01:10Z")
After the aircraft carriers sank, there was no winning. There was no possibility of victory without them. They were right to retreat in a tactical sense, but strategically anything they did was irrelevant. The war was as good as lost, even if they did capture midway. The carriers and their crews were irreplaceable, The Japanese fleet was crippled, and the US fleet was only growing stronger and more experienced. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2021, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/537 "2021-07-04T02:00:26Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > So, if I get what you are saying right, Yamamoto should have gone all-in on Midway. Withdrawing his forces just meant he made a lot of $10 bets which made winning the war (if it was ever possible) all that much more difficult. I am struggling to understand how taking Midway wins the war. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2021, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/538 "2021-07-04T02:04:00Z")
See posts above. And retreating sure doesn’t win it. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2021, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/539 "2021-07-04T04:17:22Z")
No post above explains how taking Midway wins the war, sorry, but trying to could sure have accelerated losing it. You are placing a bizarre importance on holding Midway. It doesn’t merit it. It wasn’t the point. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2021, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029/540 "2021-07-04T04:34:59Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > The US could simply out-produce and out-last Japan. [Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9ag2x3CS9M), by Military History Visualized, is a 14 minute timeline of USN vs. IJN warship production during WWII. Note that some – not much – of the US production was going to the Atlantic. And speaking of YouTube, this seven-year old, 50-minute lecture by Jon Parshall at the US Naval War College popped up in my recommendations this evening. As of this posting I’ve not seen it but since the title is “The Untold Story of the Battle of Midway” I expect it will echo _Shattered Sword._ [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9rkKtK1b44&](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9rkKtK1b44&) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029.md?page=26) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wwii-battle-of-midway-why-couldnt-the-japanese-have-pressed-on-and-captured-the-island/917029.md?page=28)