Unlikely. They were way, way, way behind the US. And between the Nazi persecutions & politicization of academia and the demands of the war their position was getting worse over time, not better.
As well as not even close to an organized, integrated science/military mindset.
I think people are forgetting the British Empire. If America doesn’t engage militarily in Europe or Africa, then Britain fights the Germans to a standstill, develops the Atomic Bomb independently, and then it’s all over for Germany. It’s Britain that sets the policy for Europe and there’s no Cold War, no Eastern European dictators,
As well as an economy that was set to collapse in not too long a time - the Nazi economy was a ponzi scheme combined with a kleptocracy, and wasn’t going to survive.
The Germans were already placing the vast majority of their fighters against the West, where they were defeated. From here
The Luftwaffe, as shown above, would still have ceased to exist as an effective force in the West long before the bomb was developed, and could have been dropped anywhere the US wanted in Germany at will. Even if the Germans developed their own bomb, delivery would be very, very problematic for them. Placing it as a warhead on a V-1 or V-2 wasn’t plausible, the bombs being quite heavy. It took a B-29 to carry them; in fact the only Luftwaffe aircraft that I can think of that might be able to carry a bomb is the Me-323 Gigant which was a very slow and ungainly transport aircraft, hardly suitable for penetrating Allied airspace where it would have been a sitting duck.
Where would Germany have obtained the uranium needed for nuclear bombs?
The only source they controlled was in Czechoslovakian mines, and they only produced a small amount, sold for yellow-colored stained glass. Certainly not enough to be refined into enough for a bomb. The USA had sources in Colorado/New Mexico, and access to Canadian uranium, and still had to import some from the Belgian Congo to have enough. The Allies controlled the African sources, and would not have sold any to Germany. In fact, Germany placing an order for a large amount would have immediately raised a warning flag for the Allies.
This is all assuming they even tried to do this. Nazi view of all this science as “Jewish physics” doesn’t seem to indicate any big effort on the scale of the Manhattan Project. Assuming Germany even had the resources to do such a project.
The best that could have be done on a mass scale would have been B-29’s flying from Iceland. Their range is about 1500 miles (and back). The distance from Iceland to Berlin is just a little less.
Yeah but if he’s gonna be a megalomaniac evil dictator, couldn’t he have wooed them with false promises and then used them for cannon fodder against the soviets? Solve both problems at once. Mop up the ones who don’t die later.
Except Hitler wasn’t just a megalomaniac evil dictator, he was an incredibly stupid megalomaniac evil dictator. Pretty much every decision he ever made in regards to military and economic matters was the wrong one. The allies actually canceled all of their various assassination plans after reading enough Ultra messages to realize that killing Hitler would lengthen because someone competent might take over.
If you want to see what would happen if Germany does significantly better in WWII and get all of the napkinwaffe super weapons read Stuart Slade “The Big One”.
Short version is the Germany gets nuked into the stone age.
I am not so sure this would be the result.
Firstly, America did not have large enough stockpiles of uranium or plutonium on hand to quickly make more bombs. That adds some time, I am not sure how much–but let’s say a year later we do assemble a couple more A-Bombs.
By this time Germany has seen the effectiveness of the atom bomb and their efforts increase. They are still behind.
There would be a big difference in effectiveness of the two bombs considering Japan vs. Germany. Japan was already beaten to its knees when the bombs were dropped. A victorious Germany in 1942 would mean a very robust Germany by 1946 (an extra year to get more Uranium/Plutonium.) Two bombs would not mean as much to a robust nation as it did to a nation beaten to its knees. In another year we drop a couple more bombs. After a few years Germany develops it too, and limited nuclear exchanges begin back and forth. (I would assume that Germany would also venture into aircraft carriers, as well, given the problem of fighting America overseas.) Longer Range Bombers get invented, and its pretty much even with a stupid nuclear war of attrition.
The bombs get more powerful and plentiful until one or the other loses the capacity to make bombs and or defend its coasts conventionally, and given the additional twenty years added onto the war, there is no way to tell which side that will be.
There is no simple Germany gets nuked into submission.
But you are right, Hitler was an Idiot. Except in knowing how to manipulate people. A genius there.
Exactly. This OP is not a hard question. Nuke them.
You are making it too difficult. The USA could have plenty of A-bombs by 1946.
Germany would not, could not, last “a few years”. Germany would not have atomic weapons. There is no way Germany could survive dozens of A-bombs. Of course, the USA would have to find a way to get around the German air force and be able to drop, or shoot atomic rockets, into germany. German air defenses would be the major problem, but it could be solved one way or another.
Also, building aircraft carriers, without a navy to support them, would not work. Germany’s aircraft carriers would be immediately destroyed as soon as they left the dock.
This requires a Hitler so at odds with the historical one that WW2 would not have occurred in any recognizable form. What would making puppet states out of the Ukraine, Belarus, etc. gain him? The loss of slave labor and exploitation of raw materials in exchange for some troops of dubious reliability, motivation and skill. The Germans managed to force a million former Soviet subjects into the military without setting up puppet states in the form of Hiwis, Osttruppen, and such who proved to be generally unreliable. I can’t see troops being recruited from puppet states being much more reliable or motivated.
A victorious Germany in 1942 would find itself in the same position as a non-victorious one. It would still be unable to cross the channel, it would still be subjected to the same strategic bombing, and the Luftwaffe would be just as thoroughly destroyed as an effective force by early/mid-44. The question of where Germany was going to get this Uranium/Plutonium was already addressed by t-bonham@scc.net. All of those B-29s that went to the Pacific to firebomb Japan would likely have been sent to the UK to bomb Germany as well.
You underestimate how fast more bombs could be made ready, how far behind the US Germany was in nuclear research, Germany’s ability to get its hand on fissile materials even if they had the theoretical knowledge, and the fact that conventional raids by 1,000 or more bombers would continue to remain a nearly daily occurrence over Germany.
I’m guessing you’re assuming Germany takes over the UK if they are worried about carriers and long range bombers. If so, an invasion of the UK was simply not in the cards for Germany. They were not getting across the channel to do anything more than wind up in POW cages. Building carriers would be a foolhardy waste of resources by Germany; they could not hope to compete against the Royal Navy, much less the USN as well. By the end of WW2 the US Navy was the largest navy in history, larger by far than the navies of every other country combined. Germany was also horribly behind in long range bombers, the He-177 was pretty much a disaster as an airplane, much less a bomber and represented the apex of German efforts to make a long range bomber.
I pointed out earlier that B-29s could barely hit Berlin from Iceland.
One frequently-overlooked factor I tend to wonder about is Hitler’s physical condition. In the last film of him — the one where he’s patting the Hitler Youth on the cheeks and shoulders — his left arm appears to be useless and it’s pretty clear that his Parkinson’s is deteriorating.
Absent the Red Army and the accompanying stress, he might have held out longer; still, I think it likely that by mid-1946 (at the latest) he would have been pretty much out of the picture (except to trot out and prop up when needed for a propaganda piece), and the resulting infighting and turf wars would have rendered the Reich virtually leaderless.
We used both our A bombs on Japan.
Actually in that universe the German regular military turns on Hitler and the SS. They’ve accomplished their goals and don’t have any desire to take on England or the US. They realize it will result in total loss. The result of negotiations is the annexation of France and large portions of Poland, Russia and the other states adjoining Germany. Belgium and Holland are alowed their independence, although in a client state relationship. The matter is not settled in North Africa and the Middle East, and there is continuing friction there with a very strong US/UK alliance (they call it USK there).
In the Pacific, Japan has never launched the Pearl Harbor attack, and they are in a standoff at sea with the USK, but they have annexed Russian territory and control of all of Eastern Asia. USK forces build up dramatically in Alaska and BC. There are huge airbases designed to carry out massive air raids on Japanese held territory using newly developed long range bombers. The massive planes have thick foil wings to hold enormous amounts of fuel and carry fat bomb laden fuselages. With the Atlantic free from the the threat of the Wolf Pack, trade grows between Europe and the Americas, making German industrialists very rich, but their economy sags under the burden of maintaining control of acquired territory.
In early 1949, an agreement is reached in Paris between the USK alliance and the German Republic. In exchange for the return of territory, including a free French republic about half the size of the country as it is now in our universe, lines are drawn giving Germany control of North Africa outside of Egypt, and the Middle East except for the southern half of the Arabian Peninsula.
It is not until 1952 that the USK launches Operation Cyclone. Hundreds of long range bomber flights selected ports in Korea, China, and the Siberian Peninsula. The Navy completes a long set of complicated manuveurs which leave the Japanese Fleet trapped below the 30th parallel. The Japanese amass their forces around the bombarded ports, falling into a trap as a 50,000 USK troops and armament are dropped behind the enemy lines. The Japanese are hoisted on their own petard. Their entire defensive strategy centered on repelling invasions by sea. It takes months to clean up after the operation, the Japanese insist on fighting to death instead of surrending, but only 9 months after the rapid success of Cyclone, Operation Broom begins. From the Northwest bases, and new airfields built in captured territory, the carpet bombing of Japan begins. The Japanese had killed over 15 million people across Asia and the Pacific Islands, and there is no mercy. USK promises to kill every person in Japan unless the Emperor is publicly beheaded. 10 days into the operation, a message is issued from the Japanese military. The execution of Hirohito will occur at a time and place of the USK’s choosing, and the military will formally surrender. On March 11th, 1953, Hirohito is beheaded by a Japanese soldier on the deck of a barge towed out into the open sea, in view of USK observers.
After that, things get weird. The postwar generation in Germany rebels against militarism and facism, spawning an art revolution that eventually leads to collapse of the central government and the establishment of a number of new European states. The US and the UK face economic a major economic recession in the post war years. They attempt to maintain economic stability by exploiting colonial holdings in Asia and Africa, but the local populaces break out into violent rebellions, and protacted rounds of military retaliation. In the US, in a surprise move, Sen. Scott Thompson, a brash young red-headed politican throws his hat in the ring for the 2012 presidential election.
All this time, technological developments like the nuclear energy and weapons, turbine engines, advanced semiconductors, and rocketry have hovered in limbo. They had always been considered overly expensive for the return in value, but basic research had continued. Only in the 1990s did these technologies begin to emerge.
The end of the 20th century looks backwards in that universe compared to ours. But I’ve got to go back next year and see how that election turns out.
This does not seem very plausible at all. The german military was interested in a coup d’etat only to save Germany from ruin. A Germany in a winning scenario includes greatly lessened motivation to do away with Hitler.
I didn’t think so either. I found it quite a shock. Most of the alternate universes don’t vary that much from this one.
And they would instead have been used to light up Hamburg and Bremen, or something.
I suppose to make the OP’s scenario more workable, one needs to throw in extras like Churchill having a fatal heart attack when he heard that Stalin had been executed, or something…