# XKCD's Climate Change Comic **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [September 12, 2016, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786 "2016-09-12T20:34:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2016, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/1 "2016-09-12T20:34:25Z")
[Randall has done it again](http://www.xkcd.com/1732/). Take your time to explore this comic/graphic/infograph/whatever you want to call it, then come back here. This may be the best visual I’ve seen about climate change. I mean, it’s a story you know how it’ll end, but it’s kind of a gutpunch in the last half-inch. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2016, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/2 "2016-09-12T21:05:15Z")
The Alt comment: [After setting your car on fire] Listen, your car’s temperature has changed before. ---
**Author:** ![RadicalPi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/radicalpi/32/9806_2.png) [@RadicalPi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RadicalPi)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2016, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/3 "2016-09-12T21:15:02Z")
Wait, what happened to the earth’s orbit in about 18,500 BC? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2016, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/4 "2016-09-12T21:42:06Z")
> [@RadicalPi](#): > > Wait, what happened to the earth’s orbit in about 18,500 BC? There are periodic changes in Earth’s orbital eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession of the axis. Precession is the most rapid with a cycle of 23k years; the tilt changes from 21.5 to 24.5 degrees over a period of 41k years, and eccentricity has a cycle of 100k years. All three of these could have had an effect 20k years ago. A paper [a few years ago](http://phys.org/news/2013-08-earth-orbit-key-antarctic-ice.html) used Antarctic ice cores determined that deglaciation there was driven by orbital changes. I looked up the paper, though, and it didn’t detail the contributing changes. It did say this in summary: _Local orbital forcing is a likely cause of the inferred sea-ice change. Integrated annual insolation at latitude 65 degrees S increased by 1% between 22 and 18 kyr ago. The additional annual insolation is 60 MJ/m^2, which is enough to melt 5 cm/m^2 of sea ice assuming an albedo of 0.75. The increase in integrated summer insolation, where summer is defined as days with insolation above a threshold of 275 W/m^2, is greater than the total annual increase (Supplementary Fig. 10). Thus, the increase comes in summer, when it is most likely to be absorbed by low-albedo open water. The summer duration also begins increasing at 23 kyr ago; longer summers and shorter winters may also contribute to the decrease in sea-ice extent . The effect of an increase in insolation would be amplified by the sea-ice/albedo feedback._ Given the seasonal dependence, I’d expect that changes in axial tilt are the dominant factor. ---
**Author:** ![Aji\_de\_Gallina](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aji_de_gallina/32/260_2.png) [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aji_de_Gallina)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2016, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/5 "2016-09-12T21:43:21Z")
It was all good until he projected lines. Reality is waaaaay below projections now. Also, “assuming massive actions” is the understatement of the year. Because it basically means “destroying the modern world as we know and killing or harming far more people far more quickly than GW/CC could”. So, if no one wants to do something even remotely similar to that, then that option is imaginary and not scientific. Also 2.0: “Northwest Passage opens” must be taken _cum grano salis_. It isn’t open in any practical way (no ship can use it, maybe a kayak or small motorboat), this year’s Niña has closed it up and will be for a few more years. It may as well open in the near future, but not now. Also, there was a ship “The Interceptor” north of Banks Island in 1850s and Roald Admusen crossed the NWP in the 1900s, so that “opens” loses a lot of its punch. It’s a very good infographic marred by Godenberry-like moralising. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2016, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/6 "2016-09-12T21:50:46Z")
> [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > Also, “assuming massive actions” is the understatement of the year. Because it basically means “destroying the modern world as we know and killing or harming far more people far more quickly than GW/CC could”. So, if no one wants to do something even remotely similar to that, then that option is imaginary and not scientific. Do you have a cite for the estimated deaths due to taking massive action against AGW? > [@](#): > > Also 2.0: “Northwest Passage opens” must be taken _cum grano salis_. It isn’t open in any practical way (no ship can use it, maybe a kayak or small motorboat), this year’s Niña has closed it up and will be for a few more years. And do you have a cite for that? I’m guessing not, seeing as how the [massive cruise ship currently making its way through the Northwest Passage](http://www.usnews.com/news/news/articles/2016-09-09/giant-cruise-ship-makes-historic-voyage-in-melting-arctic) is in the news right now. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2016, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/7 "2016-09-12T21:53:44Z")
Wow. Well done. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2016, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/8 "2016-09-12T22:09:30Z")
> [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > It was all good until he projected lines. > Reality is waaaaay below projections now. Nope. > **[RealClimate: Unforced variations: Aug 2016](https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/08/unforced-variations-aug-2016/)** > > RealClimate: Sorry for the low rate of posts this summer. Lots of offline life going on. ;-) Meantime, this paper by Hourdin et al on climate model tuning is very interesting and harks back to the FAQ we did on climate models a few years ago (Part I,... > [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > Also, “assuming massive actions” is the understatement of the year. Because it basically means “destroying the modern world as we know and killing or harming far more people far more quickly than GW/CC could”. So, if no one wants to do something even remotely similar to that, then that option is imaginary and not scientific. Indeed because what you talk about is a straw man, not what the proponents of change propose. > [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > Also 2.0: “Northwest Passage opens” must be taken _cum grano salis_. It isn’t open in any practical way (no ship can use it, maybe a kayak or small motorboat), this year’s Niña has closed it up and will be for a few more years. It may as well open in the near future, but not now. Also, there was a ship “The Interceptor” north of Banks Island in 1850s and Roald Admusen crossed the NWP in the 1900s, so that “opens” loses a lot of its punch. Actually a Chinese cruise company claimed to do that this year or the next, so that is the only iffy thing here, if they succeed then the graph is very, very accurate indeed. > **[Crystal Cruises | Crystal](https://www.crystalcruises.com/)** > > Welcome on board Crystal: curated voyages, where your every experience is exceptional. > [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > It’s a very good infographic marred by Godenberry-like moralising. Not marred, as usual you need to drop the sources that continue to misled you to this day. ---
**Author:** ![Foggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foggy/32/1082_2.png) [@Foggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Foggy)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2016, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/9 "2016-09-12T22:50:35Z")
The link in the Op is to the main page and will show a different comic by Wednesday mourning. This [LINK](http://www.xkcd.com/1732/) will go to the **Earth Temperature Timeline** comic. Maybe a Mod can change it. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2016, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/10 "2016-09-12T23:21:52Z")
Looks pretty good to me. Wouldn’t want Boston to be under a mile of ice as in 20,000 BCE, so warming is a good thing. Could we arrange it so only St. Louis is under a mile of ice? Or maybe only the suburbs? I could go for that. ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2016, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/11 "2016-09-12T23:29:43Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Looks pretty good to me. Wouldn’t want Boston to be under a mile of ice as in 20,000 BCE, so warming is a good thing. > > Could we arrange it so only St. Louis is under a mile of ice? Or maybe only the suburbs? I could go for that. um… the ice’d have to pass through Wisconsin first, I think. Just sayin’. Also, nice Spinal Tap reference. ---
**Author:** ![JohnGalt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johngalt/32/184_2.png) [@JohnGalt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnGalt)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2016, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/12 "2016-09-12T23:33:35Z")
Wow. Just wow. If nothing else, it’s a nice little history of our planet and civilization, with the climate overlay showing that in the past we were at the whims of nature. Now we’re the whims. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2016, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/13 "2016-09-12T23:56:03Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#): > > um… the ice’d have to pass through Wisconsin first, I think. Just sayin’. I’m counting on divine intervention. What use would a rational deity have for St. Louis? My location, OTOH, is God’s Country, i.e., the Magical Land O’ Cows, cheese, and pigs. Yeah, Randall went to 11 on this one. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2016, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/14 "2016-09-13T00:34:21Z")
Who is Godenberry? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2016, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/15 "2016-09-13T01:11:37Z")
Also of note: His projections include a best-case scenario, an optimistic scenario, and a straight extrapolation. What they do _not_ include is a worst-case scenario. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2016, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/16 "2016-09-13T01:22:55Z")
Aren’t our “worst-case scenarios” the straight extrapolations, while the “best-case scenarios” are the numbers we made up because we didn’t want to believe what we were seeing? That’s what it seems like. Is there even a “worst-case” line we aren’t already on? What is that, even, full Antarctic melting by 2029? ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2016, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/17 "2016-09-13T02:06:20Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > Aren’t our “worst-case scenarios” the straight extrapolations, while the “best-case scenarios” are the numbers we made up because we didn’t want to believe what we were seeing? > > That’s what it seems like. Nah. Extrapolation is “if we keep doing what we’re doing”. A worst case scenario would be “China industrializes most of sub-Saharan Africa to their _cough_ exacting _cough_ enviro standards”. Which is kind of happening, really. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2016, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/18 "2016-09-13T02:13:10Z")
> [@Kobal2](#): > > “China industrializes most of sub-Saharan Africa to their _cough_ exacting _cough_ enviro standards”. Get indoors, man! ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2016, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/19 "2016-09-13T02:56:22Z")
I’ve changed the link as you asked so that it will keep on linking to that specific comic always, **LHoD**. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2016, 6:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786/20 "2016-09-13T06:17:15Z")
What a great mod. Anyway, ultimately this strip makes me mad at evangelicals. That’s who are voting the GOP into power, that’s who are just fine with denying/ignoring this problem. Evangelicals, man, they’re going to get us all killed. Really! [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xkcds-climate-change-comic/765786.md?page=2)