# xtisme, come on down, you muppet! **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [June 7, 2010, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300 "2010-06-07T17:06:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Muffin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muffin/32/4341_2.png) [@Muffin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Muffin)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/181 "2010-06-08T03:52:06Z")
He thinks the solution is for there to be two examiners in each car. Ne shitteh vous pas. ---
**Author:** ![Giraffe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/giraffe/32/129_2.png) [@Giraffe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Giraffe)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/182 "2010-06-08T04:00:12Z")
> [@Muffin](#): > > He thinks the solution is for there to be two examiners in each car. Ne shitteh vous pas. Huh, I just assumed he failed the written test, given his performance in this thread. You mean he lacks basic hand-eye coordination as well? Talk about being dealt a losing hand… ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/183 "2010-06-08T04:10:12Z")
> [@Fenris](#): > > See Poul Anderson’s _Operation Chaos_. See Post #37. Man, you’re slow tonight. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 6:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/184 "2010-06-08T06:14:43Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > Well, for starters you’re a confused, belligerent conspiracy theory wackdoodle and anti-Semitic bigot (sorry for the redundancy). You forgot “mugger”. ---
**Author:** ![ivan\_astikov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/58f4c7/32.png) [@ivan\_astikov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivan_astikov)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 7:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/185 "2010-06-08T07:15:13Z")
Poor little **Muffin**. Reduced to scrabbling around on another forum to find his lumps of poo to fling! It’d be sad, if it wasn’t so funny. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Kobayashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4af34b/32.png) [@Mr.Kobayashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Kobayashi)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 9:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/186 "2010-06-08T09:33:11Z")
Because I’m generally interested in the subject (which is why I started the thread that spawned this one), I’ve had a look at the book and author - although this is only going to be very much a first impressions type thing since I’ve only read the ‘Look Inside This Book’ feature on [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), and some interviews with the author that are up on YouTube. The first thing I notice is a strong reliance on the argumentum ad numerum - that the numbers alone of supposed UFO encounters themselves point to something. This is not necessarily the case, as there have been [hundreds of Bigfoot sightings too](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bigfoot#Prominent_reported_sightings). Does this mean that there is a conspiracy to cover up Bigfoot? The conspiracy (if you object to that word, it’s one he uses in a radio interview, so…) angle is pushed heavily in what I’ve read in his book so far, and he uses the example of the Manhattan Project, noting that the U.S. was able to detonate The Gadget in New Mexico without the U.S. populace being any the wiser. While this is true, it’s a bad example - the Soviets had [managed to conduct successful espionage](http://www.cfo.doe.gov/me70/manhattan/espionage.htm) in the project, and even the Japanese and Germans were aware of ‘rumours’ despite the supposed secrecy. It assumes a government competence that frankly is unfounded. This also assumes a worldwide intergovernmental conspiracy to keep the whole thing quiet, during the height of the Cold War no less. There’s also a heavy reliance upon anecdotal evidence. I’ve written before on the SDMB about the nature of anecdotal evidence; human nature tends to put a spin on experiences regardless of the tellers honesty. He points to the [Battle of Los Angeles](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Los_Angeles#Attribution) as evidence for his case, but discounts out of hand any alternative explanations, calling explanations like mass hallucination/hysteria (which can lead to all sorts of madness, including dances), experimental aircraft, drug-induced phenomenon or outright hoaxes as ‘the usual culprits’. My initial impression is that he approaches the whole thing bass-ackwards, like many on the…fringes, shall we say. He has it in mind that UFOs and a conspiracy exists, and looks for any evidence to try and back this up. The nature of the beast means that contradictory explanations and science are dismissed as being part of the conspiracy. Like moon hoaxers, and NASA evidence you present is instantly dismissed as being tampered with by conspirators. They have unfalsifiable beliefs. Rather, he should examine the evidence then draw conclusions. This is the proper application of investigatory science. Instead, he hasn’t been through a peer-review process and has instead got a book published, which probably made him more money but means that we can’t treat his findings the same way we’d treat something that had gone through the ringer, the means we use to establish what actually is present in reality and what isn’t. He would have more credibility if he was to present what evidence he had to the process, although once again he could dismiss the ‘establishment’ as being committed to a massive conspiracy. And the bigger the conspiracy, the greater the likelihood that someone slips up. Look at Watergate, the office of the President couldn’t even cover up a hotel break in, for crying out loud. Although the author claims that there are mysterious powers behind the presidency, so who knows. All in all, I can’t say that what I’ve seen so far has been compelling evidence that aliens have visited our planet and the government(s) are covering it up. At best, it points to the widespread phenomenon of people seeing things in the sky and not knowing what they are, and then making assumptions and assertions about the nature of said objects. Like I said, this is only what I’ve been able to gather from first impressions. Perhaps there is more compelling stuff later on, in which case **ivan** would need to paraphrase it. ---
**Author:** ![Scumpup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ce73a5/32.png) [@Scumpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scumpup)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 10:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/187 "2010-06-08T10:32:46Z")
WRT the driver’s license, Ivan is unused to a system where you can’t get most anything you want for a couple packs of cigarettes and a blowjob. ---
**Author:** ![ivan\_astikov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/58f4c7/32.png) [@ivan\_astikov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivan_astikov)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 10:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/188 "2010-06-08T10:33:27Z")
When the argumentum ad numerum, as you so cutely name it, consists mostly of military and professional pilot sightings and experiences, it carries more weight than your typical backpacker in Bigfoot country encounters. ---
**Author:** ![ivan\_astikov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/58f4c7/32.png) [@ivan\_astikov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivan_astikov)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 10:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/189 "2010-06-08T10:42:44Z")
> [@Scumpup](#): > > WRT the driver’s license, Ivan is unused to a system where you can’t get most anything you want for a couple packs of cigarettes and a blowjob. [Stick with brevity.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=12520689&postcount=11) It’s your strongest suit. ---
**Author:** ![kambuckta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/53a042/32.png) [@kambuckta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kambuckta)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 10:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/190 "2010-06-08T10:44:05Z")
> [@ivan\_astikov](#): > > When the argumentum ad numerum, as you so cutely name it, consists mostly of military and professional pilot sightings and experiences, it carries more weight than your typical backpacker in Bigfoot country encounters. Why do the military and pilot sightings of your precious UFO’s carry ‘more weight’ than those who claim to have seen Yetis? What is the qualitative difference? Why the hell am I getting involved in this fucking stupid thread? ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Kobayashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4af34b/32.png) [@Mr.Kobayashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Kobayashi)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 10:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/191 "2010-06-08T10:54:12Z")
> [@ivan\_astikov](#): > > When the argumentum ad numerum, as you so cutely name it, consists mostly of military and professional pilot sightings and experiences, it carries more weight than your typical backpacker in Bigfoot country encounters. Yet the vast majority of people who claim that they’ve had [some sort of encounter with UFOs](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_UFO_sightings) are civilians (and mostly from First World nations, oddly enough - probably because of the propagation of the idea through mass media). Regardless, your argument also hinges on the ideas that the military is infallible, and that the _only_ explanation for these sightings (if they even occurred as reported, remember the fluid and unreliable nature of [anecdotal evidence](http://www.skepdic.com/testimon.html), which seems to be the sum total of evidence as far as your claim is concerned) is that they are aliens and therefore we must infer that the government is engaged in a vast worldwide conspiracy. I’m not even disputing that these phenomenon occur - people do see objects in the sky which they can’t identify. What I am disputing is the assertion that these are necessarily aliens and the further assertion that the government wants the whole thing hushed up. ---
**Author:** ![ivan\_astikov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/58f4c7/32.png) [@ivan\_astikov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivan_astikov)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/192 "2010-06-08T11:00:05Z")
Which the book addresses in a far more detailed manner than I could. Or would you expect someone wanting to discuss evolution to have no familiarity whatsoever with The Origin Of Species? I’m not implying that Dolan is a Darwin, but the subject matter of his book is equally, if not more important to mankind than Darwin’s is. Imho. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Kobayashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4af34b/32.png) [@Mr.Kobayashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Kobayashi)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 11:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/193 "2010-06-08T11:12:54Z")
> [@ivan\_astikov](#): > > Which the book addresses in a far more detailed manner than I could. Or would you expect someone wanting to discuss evolution to have no familiarity whatsoever with The Origin Of Species? > > I’m not implying that Dolan is a Darwin, but the subject matter of his book is equally, if not more important to mankind than Darwin’s is. Imho. Which speaks against your case. I agree that the subject is incredibly important - if somebody could prove that extraterrestrial intelligence even existed, let alone that it travels light-years just to muck around with us, they’d win the Nobel Prize for Physics and be at once the most famous scientist ever. There’s too much in it for some shadowy and unproven conspiracy to globally cover up any empirical evidence - unless said evidence doesn’t exist in the first place, which is my position. In any case, I’d be interesting to hear how the book does deal with these objections, if you could briefly paraphrase (after all, it’s easy to paraphrase some of Darwin to deal with discussions on evolution). I’m hoping it’s not further assertions and anecdote. From what I read in the opening pages of his book, Dolan does seem to rely on testimonials and stories to add weight to his case. Which don’t prove anything, as witnesses make mistakes, get confused, exaggerate or outright lie. If there is evidence for the existence of an extraterrestrial intelligence he should formally present it to a peer-reviewed journal. The fact that he doesn’t says that either he simply can’t be bothered, which doesn’t bode well given the importance, that such evidence doesn’t exist, in which case we’re back to square one and the position I hold, or that he thinks ‘science’ is in on the conspiracy, which renders all fields of discovery moot if scientists are willing to comprise their principles in aid of an improbable multi-governmental conspiracy. ---
**Author:** ![ivan\_astikov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/58f4c7/32.png) [@ivan\_astikov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivan_astikov)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/194 "2010-06-08T11:19:55Z")
I’ll let Mr Dolan explain. > [@](#): > > I have brought together several themes in preparing this study, which covers the UFO phenomenon from 1973 until 1991. First are the reports themselves, priority of which was given to those with military implications. In some cases this meant that the report came from a military or intelligence agency within the U.S., U.S.S.R., or another nation; in other cases it meant that reliable journalistic sources had reported an attempted jet interception or some other military encounter with a UFO; in others still it meant well-researched cases by a major UFO investigative group, such as the Mutual UFO Network (MUFON). Of course, not all UFO encounters in this book have direct military implications. Some are just good reports that were reliably investigated, important historically, or offered some other redeeming quality. Throughout, I sought to describe and analyze these cases succinctly, yet fully. > > This book is more than a collection of UFO accounts, however. Ultimately, it tells a story, some of which concerns the attitudes of political and military agencies. We can learn these in several ways. One is through the available military and intelligence reports. While there are limits to what we can know based on reports of mid-level classification (i.e. “Confidential” as opposed to “Top Secret”), we can still see that the military considered many UFO encounters with great seriousness, even gravity. Responsible thinkers must ask why this was so, and why such an attitude has continually been countered by official silence and dismissal. When powerful groups dismiss something publicly, but take it seriously in private, we can assume something important is being withheld. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Kobayashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4af34b/32.png) [@Mr.Kobayashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Kobayashi)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/195 "2010-06-08T11:39:23Z")
> [@ivan\_astikov](#): > > I’ll let Mr Dolan explain. I’m afraid Dolan’s explanation didn’t do much for me, as it falls far short of being anything like empirical evidence - again, we’ve got reports of ‘encounters’ or ‘interceptions’ of UFOs, which Dolan claims to investigated fully. Very well, if he has let him submit his findings and I’ll be the first in line to congratulate him on a great discovery. If his findings conclude that these UFOs must be aliens, let’s see the evidence for this conclusion. The second paragraph is little more than just conspiratorial white noise, extrapolations from silence is hardly a reliable source or basis to form conclusions (the conclusion again being - aliens. A non-sequitur based on prior assumptions. For all we know the Air Force or whoever was testing advanced aircraft, or conducting secret patrols, or any number of alternative explanations that require silence but which doesn’t necessitate aliens). Dolan believes that there is a conspiracy, which essentially cripples him from my point of view. Any evidence to the contrary can be seen as part of the conspiracy, any official reports or investigations, fabricated, witnesses told to shut up and so on. This runs contrary to scientific enquiry; we don’t form a hypothesis, gather evidence and chuck out anything that disagrees because ‘the man’ must want it to disagree with you for purposes unknown. It’s a slippery slope with no end. ---
**Author:** ![ivan\_astikov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/58f4c7/32.png) [@ivan\_astikov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivan_astikov)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/196 "2010-06-08T11:59:58Z")
Here we go again, “Conspiracies are impossible!” :dubious: Any idea what the current Black Budget top projects are at the moment, and how much they are costing? Do you think they are looking for the cure for cancer and unlimited energy for the masses, in these secretive boardrooms and labs they occupy? ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/197 "2010-06-08T12:07:06Z")
Conspiracies as widespread as would have to exist for a phoenominon which is claimed to be so widespread (many many many people claim seeing UFOs and alien encounters), in a world full of HD cameras you can put in your pocket, cell phone cameras, youtube, etc. for there to be no solid evidence is wildly implausible. Is there this ultra-efficient group of men in black who find out who’s snapped up a picture of the UFOs and manage to get to them within 20 minutes before they post it on the internet? His greater point, I think, is that once you enter the conspiratorial mindset, there’s nothing that can persuade you. Any evidence that contradicts your position becomes part of the conspiracy. Is there any bullshit you don’t believe? Like, do you think the moon landing was real? Do you think that pharmaceutical companies and doctors everywhere know vaccines cause autism and don’t care? Do you think 9/11 was done by secretly planted explosives inside the buildings? Give me an example of a conspiracy theory you don’t believe in, and I can demonstrate that the same erroneous thought that goes into supporting their view. I suspect there may not be an issue we can agree is bullshit, though. Your mind appears to be wide open and accepting of anything - you’ll soak up any woo that anyone throws in front of you. I notice you sidestep people’s examples of trying to find some common skeptical ground (like the recent comparison to belief in bigfoot) - probably because your initial thought was “hey, bigfoot is real too!”. Maybe I’m wrong though, and help me out - are there any conspiracy theories that you think are bullshit? ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Kobayashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4af34b/32.png) [@Mr.Kobayashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Kobayashi)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/198 "2010-06-08T12:09:59Z")
> [@ivan\_astikov](#): > > Here we go again, “Conspiracies are impossible!” :dubious: > > Any idea what the current Black Budget top projects are at the moment, and how much they are costing? Do you think they are looking for the cure for cancer and unlimited energy for the masses, in these secretive boardrooms and labs they occupy? I didn’t say they were impossible, but your case would have a conspiracy of unprecedented size and scope. At all levels of government, there are people who are incompetent and greedy, the bigger the conspiracy, the greater the chance of one of these people coming into the loop. Every member of it would need to be 100% committed to the cover up, despite the magnitude of the discovery. I mentioned before Dolan’s example of the Manhattan Project, which was beset by espionage and rumour. More recently, the powers of the executive office was unable to prevent two journalists from bringing down a president. It assumes a competency and scope which simply doesn’t manifest in reality. Certainly don’t have a clue what Black Budgets are or what they are doing, I’m pretty sure the U.S. Government would be rather unhappy if I did. But this is one big argument from ignorance - because we don’t know what they’re doing, they must be working on covering up aliens. I think it’s more likely that they’re working on projects like [this](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B-2_Spirit#Development) or [this](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SR-71_Blackbird), from what we know now. This is also ignoring why Doran hasn’t presented what evidence he has for his conclusions in a proper peer-reviewed scientific journal, rather than a book presented to the public. If he has the evidence, let it be examined by professionals with a fine tooth comb, just as we examine evidence for pretty much every other field of study in the same manner. ---
**Author:** ![Muffin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muffin/32/4341_2.png) [@Muffin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Muffin)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/199 "2010-06-08T12:12:20Z")
> [@kambuckta](#): > > Why the hell am I getting involved in this fucking stupid thread? Like a moth, you are being drawn to the Vibratory Real Divine Light. To quote one of the thread’s [advertisements](http://www.oneuniversalmind.com/lp/inner-light?sr=1&gclid=COytuIuzkKICFRQN2god-B1Vbw): “However, my understanding is being opened up little by little, as I listen to you, and I am becoming confident that I will reach deep alpha, deep theta, delta, and then ultimately go beyond into the realm of the One where there is only Vibratory Real Divine Light.” The advetisement promises a: “Tell-All Report That Will Lead You Deeper Down The Rabbit Hole,” so it must be true. If you want to “control . . . time,” all you have to do is let the “former spy” “tell you a secret.” “Remember the movie, The Matrix? . . . . We are all connected through . . . the Matrix. . . .” That is why you are getting involved in this fucking stupid thread. ---
**Author:** ![ivan\_astikov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/58f4c7/32.png) [@ivan\_astikov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivan_astikov)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/xtisme-come-on-down-you-muppet/542300/200 "2010-06-08T12:20:27Z")
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