Hear, hear! Well said. Women or people because that is what we are. Oh and J.D. Vance is a piece of shit. Just sayin’. I won’t comment on this hi-jack again, but I think it was worthwhile.
Moderating:
It was a useful issue to discuss, but let’s agree to drop the hijack now. Thanks.
Aren’t non-presidential election years consistently lower in terms of voter turnout?
Is this how we get more men to support Harris?
It seems women may indeed be the turning point in this election. Still a long way to go yet. I am amazed she hasn’t moved many men (I like her a lot but, to be fair, I was never going to vote for Trump).
The November presidential election could see the biggest gender divide in history, according to polling and experts.
The latest New York Times and Siena College poll, conducted between August 5 and 9 among 1,973 likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, showed there was a 35-point gender gap between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. The poll showed Trump with a 14-point lead among men, 52 percent to 39 percent. Among women, Harris had a 21-point lead, with 56 percent support to Trump’s 35 percent.
Moderating:
Let’s not do this. We’re trying hard to stay away from misogynistic tropes on this Board. This sort of thing just perpetuates them.
No warning issued.
Its embarrassing that so many men are so gung ho for Trump. From your article.
The gender gap was even bigger in the latest Quinnipiac University poll in which Harris had a 16-point lead among women (56 percent to 40 percent), while men sided with Trump by 23 points (60 percent to 37 percent) for a 39-point gender gap.
I think she’ll win. But…
Remember 2008 when the first Black guy was elected? And a lot of people lost their shit, then veiled it; with accusations that Obama was elected because of “white guilt?” Black people who voted for Obama were mocked in a memorable viral video of a young woman dancing and singing “now I’m gonna get paid!” White people who voted for him with our supposedly proclaiming “He’s the Messiah” (a premature Nobel Prize supplied ammunition for that one).
Given that the War between the Sexes is older than modern concepts of race, nay older than the war between Pharaoh and the Hittites; and given that although nations who’ve elected women chief executives like Finland, Iceland etc. see them as technocrats, we Americans expect them to be heroic celebrities, what’s going to happen when a woman is atop a society of 330 million people with the emotional maturity of middle-schoolers?
Yeah…those numbers worried me too.
I hope Walz can turn that around a bit. Show men that masculinity is not anger but being a good man (in all its forms). America’s dad.
I just doubt three months is enough time for that to sink in and supplant the toxic masculinity JD Vance and Trump are selling.
I wish I could find the article, but I can’t right now.
In it the author made a very good argument that Trump was the worst impulses of humanity combined, and this was in its own way intentional to reinstate white supremacy.
Obama (I’m an Obama supporter, but I’m just being objective here) was a very talented person. Highly intelligent, a good family man, highly educated, self made, compassionate, articulate, etc.
Supposedly one of the reasons the right loved Trump so much is he is none of these things. In its own way, that is a plus for them. It is basically their way of saying that the lowest, most vile white man is superior to the most educated, talented and articulate black man simply because they are white. The fact that Trump is so low and vile is a plus in its own way because it reinstates the validity of white supremacy, that white skin is superior to all other attributes.
I’m wondering if there will be pushback about gender if Harris wins. In 4-8 years will the GOP find the most disgusting, vile, evil man they can find and pick him as their frontrunner to push the unconscious narrative that the most revolting and vile man is superior to a moral, intelligent, educated woman? I wouldn’t be surprised. It happened with race under Obama and Trump.
It’s not a new notion (sadly).
“If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.” ― Lyndon B. Johnson
More likely they will find the most vile woman they can. Candace Owens, perhaps.
Two swing states have votes to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution: Arizona and Wisconsin.
Seems the consensus reporting/analysis I’ve seen is that this will dramatically turn out the vote in those two states. NY Times “the run-up” 13 June podcast had a really interesting one title “Maybe it all comes down to abortion.” Reporters visited Arizona, went out with some ballot signature getters, and interviewed multiple people. Interestingly enough, almost all were in favor of the ballot, but were not enthused about turning out to vote for Biden or Trump. A few volunteered that I will turn out to vote for the ballot, and since I’m there will hold my nose for Biden.
Arizona is very purple. The 3 cities have liberal leaning majorities, the countryside is very conservative, and the population has grown dramatically since at least 1990 with homeowners fleeing Southern California for more affordable digs. My wag is turning out the vote for Pro Choice initiatives in swing states, will most likely end with a Democrat Party victory on the up ticket.
You’d almost think he saw trump coming. Prescient.
The original implication, I assumed, is that from 2020 to 2024 the turnout of women should increase significantly more than that of men due to 2022’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health decision. And that this works to Kamala Harris’s advantage because she polls better with women today.
My counterpoint is that the statistics do not support this theory. Take a look at the Census Bureau’s P20 tables,
| Year | Sex | Citizens | Registered | Voted | Turnout (%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Both | 228,832 | 153,066 | 122,281 | 53.4 |
| 2018 | M | 110,006 | 71,726 | 56,964 | 51.8 |
| 2018 | F | 118,826 | 81,340 | 65,317 | 55.0 |
| 2020 | Both | 231,593 | 168,308 | 154,628 | 66.8 |
| 2020 | M | 111,485 | 79,340 | 72,474 | 65.0 |
| 2020 | F | 120,108 | 88,968 | 82,154 | 68.4 |
| 2022 | Both | 233,546 | 161,422 | 121,916 | 52.2 |
| 2022 | M | 112,996 | 77,021 | 57,966 | 51.3 |
| 2022 | F | 120,549 | 84,401 | 63,950 | 53.0 |
* These numbers are taken from the 18+ rows but the original tables also include breakdowns of age groups by year and sex. Note that the government defines voter turnout by sex as the percentage of citizens of that sex who say they voted. It is not a measure of the percentage of registered voters of that sex who reported voting, nor is it the percentage of votes cast by members of that sex.
You can see female voter turnout slightly declined from 2018 to 2022, 55.0% to 53.0% (-2.0%), relative to male voter turnout, 51.8% to 51.3% (-0.5%), despite the Dobbs decision and the record number of women who registered to vote that fall. For reference, voter turnout in 2020 was 68.4% of female citizens versus 65.0% of male citizens.
Obviously it is to Harris’s advantage that she is polling better with women - but they need to keep up the ground game. Young people in particular are notoriously unreliable voters and I think given the statistics it would be a strategic mistake to simply assume the Dobbs decision will bring them to the polls.
For women in particular, 2018 was a record year for voter turnout. And I think a big part of the reason was because womanhood was such a big theme in the Clinton campaign, and Trump was such an obvious misogynist. Political engagement was up across the board in the Trump years thru 2020, and frankly I don’t see it reaching those levels again in my lifetime. 2016 turnout was 60.1%, and 2014 midterm turnout was 36.4%, for reference. Most Americans are not interested in politics - my guess is that most can’t name all three of their own representatives in Congress.
Yes, Dobbs was a big event but I don’t think the decision itself motivates people to get out and vote so much as the state ballot initiatives for abortion. And unlike the pro-life movement during the years when Roe and Planned Parenthood was law of the land, once a state has passed a ballot initiative protecting reproductive rights I think the political will dies down. Ballot initiatives tend to be one-and-done, for example Michigan is a key state this cycle but its voters already approved proposal 3 in 2022. So that’s good for the women there who are now protected by state law, but I think you will see the issue of abortion is less urgent for potential Harris voters in that state.
~Max
Helpful data analysis – thanks.