# Yellowstone's gonna blow! We're all doooooooooomed! **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [December 31, 2008, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304 "2008-12-31T01:19:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/21 "2008-12-31T03:36:14Z")
> [@parthenokinesis](#): > > If we’re lucky the eruption will trigger the La Palma volcano and we can immediately follow the super volcano with the mega tsunami. I was thinking that too. What other disasters are just waiting on a hair-trigger? ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/22 "2008-12-31T03:41:07Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > [Doooooooooooooooooomed!!!](http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hklq5saMBlMynv31EbfNSka-SpOwD95COBD00) > > Note that the park spokesman’s “nothing to worry about” is about the quakes, not the potential for catastrophic eruption! > > Dooooooooooooooomed! If we _don’t_ get wiped out, I’m going to be sorely vexed at you to say the least. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Scrivener](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@The\_Scrivener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Scrivener)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/23 "2008-12-31T04:03:45Z")
Reading up on [volcano winters](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_without_a_summer), Tambora, and Yellowstone, I see a really troubling statistic. The 1816 starvation year followed the ten or eleven-day-long eruption of Tambora in 1815, which ejected some 160 cubic kilometers of, well, ejecta into the atmosphere, resulting in pyroclastic deposits in Indonnesia ten feet deep. The great quantity of aerisolized sulfur blown high into the stratosphere resulted in a persistent “dry fog” over North America. By contrast, the last big blow-up of Yellowstone ejected **1000** cubic kilometers of stuff (perhaps it occurred over a period of several weeks). Dunno about the sulfur component and whether a similar explosion would result in dry fogs over, say, Indonnesia, but I think the potential for 1000 cubic km would pose enough of a problem all by itself. ---
**Author:** ![TimeWinder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bcef8e/32.png) [@TimeWinder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimeWinder)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/24 "2008-12-31T04:18:57Z")
_Obviously_ the correct solution is to turn on the [Large Hadron Collider,](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=499477&highlight=black+hole) and use it to generate a bunch of static black holes to scoop up all the ejecta before it causes any real problems. If that doesn’t work, we can use the antimatter from the asteroid [Toutatis](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=498297) for much the same purpose, although there’s a little bit of an energy dispersal problem to be solved in that event. ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/25 "2008-12-31T04:23:24Z")
> [@TimeWinder](#): > > …although there’s a little bit of an energy dispersal problem to be solved in that event. SPF 1 billion sunblocker should do the trick there. Getting it on the wildlife is left as a exercise for the reader. ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/26 "2008-12-31T04:42:28Z")
IANAVolcanologist. However, I’ve had an active interest in Yellowstone for quite a while. I’ve worked there and used to know the Park Geologist years ago. One of the highlights was walking with him up to Old Faithful geyser minutes before an eruption to take water samples. As we turned away, up she went, in full glory. But I digress. The current earthquake swarm reminds me of the 2004 swarm at Mount St. Helens inn the weeks before its eruption. I was up at Mount St. Helens when the 2004 swarm began. The seismos were ticking at a similar rate as we currently see with Yellowstone. However, the 2004-2008 eruption sequence at Mount St. Helens was a direct result of the continuing subduction of the San Juan de Fuca plate under the North American plate. That subduction continues and, in time, will prompt future eruptions of Mount St. Helens, Mount Rainier, Mt. Hood and other Cascade Range volcanoes. On the other hand, the Yellowstone Supervolcano is a hot spot that’s existed for several million years. The North American Plate above it continues to move above it. Just take a look at a decent geological map and it’s easy to spot the hot spot move across southern Idaho, northeast through Yellowstone and eventually beyond. (Actually the hot spot doesn’t move; it’s the North American Plate that’s moving over it.) WAG - There is definite magma movement occurring under Yellowstone Lake right now. What remains to be seen is its extent. It could be a burp, a fart, or even a prelude to a significant belch. The Yellowstone Lake lakebed has been tilting in recent years. The last data I saw was the southern arms of the lake are growing as the bed underneath sinks relative to the northern area of the lake that’s rising. At the same time, the data was also showing the lakebed rising and falling at a rate sometimes approaching 12 inches of movement up and down daily. Almost as though the lakebed is “breathing.” It’s also the middle of winter in Yellowstone. I’m betting there is a quiet scramble at the USGS and other agencies to somehow physically travel to the area and set up more instruments. This swarm could be a prelude to something imminent, or just another sign of things to come, tomorrow, next week or 1,000 years from now. Still, it would be great to travel to Yellowstone and visit for a spell once the Spring thaw begins. All that release ice and snow percolating down through the cracks in the earth just might “grease the skids” to greater volcanic activity. If anything, Yellowstone may really put on a geothermal show this spring and summer. The best information is available from the [USGS Yellowstone Volcano Observatory](http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/). ---
**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/27 "2008-12-31T05:01:22Z")
> [@Scuba\_Ben](#): > > In fact, you’ll briefly think you were in a story written by **Boyo Jim**. It was an unusually bright and sulfurous night and yet, even though the macabre visions of my countrymen being burned alive by hot, magnum lava were set far away, I still thought about them as I ate my sandwich while the television set on mute provided me quiet company away from it all. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/28 "2008-12-31T05:19:19Z")
> [@Duckster](#): > > It’s also the middle of winter in Yellowstone. I’m betting there is a quiet scramble at the USGS and other agencies to somehow physically travel to the area and set up more instruments. This swarm could be a prelude to something imminent, or just another sign of things to come, tomorrow, next week or 1,000 years from now. Still, it would be great to travel to Yellowstone and visit for a spell once the Spring thaw begins. All that release ice and snow percolating down through the cracks in the earth just might “grease the skids” to greater volcanic activity. If anything, Yellowstone may really put on a geothermal show this spring and summer. I’d rather be vaporized at the epicenter of the blast than smothered by falling ash/boulders/mountains/etc. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/29 "2008-12-31T05:20:14Z")
Oh come on. Y’all know it isn’t going to blow until 2012. ---
**Author:** ![TimeWinder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bcef8e/32.png) [@TimeWinder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimeWinder)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/30 "2008-12-31T05:20:29Z")
> [@Duckster](#): > > I It could be a burp, a fart, or even a prelude to a significant belch. Hey, could you knock it off with all the technical jargon? ---
**Author:** ![Wile\_E](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c37758/32.png) [@Wile\_E](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wile_E)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 5:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/31 "2008-12-31T05:46:26Z")
Can’t we do something, like sacrifice a virgin? ---
**Author:** ![Waenara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/50afbb/32.png) [@Waenara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Waenara)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/32 "2008-12-31T05:49:26Z")
> [@Q.E.D](#): > > It’s classed as a supervolcano, and we know of the last three supereruptions, occurring about every 600,000 years. The last one was 640,000 years ago. To be fair, **Sunspace** ’s [link](http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1071/of2007-1071.pdf) in post #15 suggests that this is a slight exaggeration - the average is actually a slightly longer period than 600,000 years. My emphasis added: > [@United States Geological Survey](#): > > Although the probability of a large caldera-forming eruption at Yellowstone is exceedingly small, it is exceedingly difficullt to make a defensible quantitative estimate of that probability. As there have been three such eruptions in about the past 2,100,000 years, there are only two intereruptive periods from which to gauge any additional possible interval between the third and a potential fourth such event. The first interval, between the Huckleberry Ridge (2.059±0.004 Ma) and Mesa Falls (1.285±0.004 Ma) caldera-forming events, was 774,000±5700 years. The second interval, between the Mesa Falls and Lava Creek (0.639±0.002 Ma) events, was 646,000±4400 years. **A statement, widely repeated in popular media, regards such eruptions as occurring at Yellowstone “every 600,000 years” with the latest eruption having been “600,000 years ago”. This is commonly taken to imply that another such eruption is “overdue”. Such a statement is statistically indefensible on the basis of the extrapolation of two intervals. (Even the simple arithmetic average of the two intervals is 710,000 years, not 600,000 years)**. From the line of reasoning outlined here, the probability of a fourth large caldera-forming event at Yellowstone can be considered to be less than 1 in a million, below the threshold of hazards interest unless future premonitory phenomena, probably more severe than those recorded historically in caldera systems around the world (Newhall and Dzurisin, 1988), were to be recognized. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/33 "2008-12-31T05:55:21Z")
> [@Wile\_E](#): > > Can’t we do something, like sacrifice a virgin? Its the 21st Century, dude, virgins seem to be in rather short supply. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/34 "2008-12-31T06:02:59Z")
> [@Tuckerfan](#): > > Its the 21st Century, dude, virgins seem to be in rather short supply. Maybe **Wile E** is trying to tell us something. Don’t be coy, now, **Wile E** ; if you’re volunteering, step right up! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/35 "2008-12-31T06:13:41Z")
> [@Wile\_E](#): > > Can’t we do something, like sacrifice a virgin? The bulk of Yellowstone is in Wyoming. You really expect to find virgins in Wyoming (outside of Jackson Hole)? ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 6:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/36 "2008-12-31T06:17:10Z")
> [@spoke-](#): > > Maybe **Wile E** is trying to tell us something. Don’t be coy, now, **Wile E** ; if you’re volunteering, step right up! 😉 I don’t know, I was lead to believe that in addition to all the women at Niagara Falls, **Wile E** and [Claire Standish](http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0007029/) were riding the hobby horse. ---
**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 6:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/37 "2008-12-31T06:33:06Z")
> [@Duckster](#): > > The bulk of Yellowstone is in Wyoming. You really expect to find virgins in Wyoming (outside of Jackson Hole)? No, not in Jack some hole. ---
**Author:** ![Wile\_E](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c37758/32.png) [@Wile\_E](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wile_E)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/38 "2008-12-31T14:52:13Z")
This has to be a record for how many times I’ve been quoted in a row. I think the trick to getting such a response is to mention virgins or boobies. > [@Tuckerfan](#): > > Its the 21st Century, dude, virgins seem to be in rather short supply. > [@spoke-](#): > > Maybe **Wile E** is trying to tell us something. Don’t be coy, now, **Wile E** ; if you’re volunteering, step right up! 😉 Alas, that ship has sailed. > [@Duckster](#): > > The bulk of Yellowstone is in Wyoming. You really expect to find virgins in Wyoming (outside of Jackson Hole)? You expect to find virgins inside of Jackson Hole? > [@Tuckerfan](#): > > I don’t know, I was lead to believe that in addition to all the women at Niagara Falls, **Wile E** and [Claire Standish](http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0007029/) were riding the hobby horse. Huh? > [@Shagnasty](#): > > No, not in Jack some hole. ---
**Author:** ![Alienhand](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8edcca/32.png) [@Alienhand](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alienhand)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/39 "2008-12-31T15:48:11Z")
[nevermind] ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304/40 "2008-12-31T16:32:06Z")
> [@Wile\_E](#): > > I think the trick to getting such a response is to mention virgins or boobies. Boobies! I’m sorry, what were we talking about? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/yellowstones-gonna-blow-were-all-doooooooooomed/479304.md?page=3)