# You can still bet online for Trump to win **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 28, 2020, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686 "2020-11-28T18:45:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2020, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/41 "2020-11-29T20:39:01Z")
When I clicked on this site, I found the following note “Created On: 10/19/2020 11:23 AM (ET) Note to traders: As of this time, the contracts for Joe Biden and Donald Trump have reached the limit for the allowable number of traders.” so it seems like I can’t make a bet on the 2020 Presidential election there (if I’m interpreting this correctly, all I can do is watch what people who already have contracts are doing with them - if I’m incorrect in my interpretation, please let me know). ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2020, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/42 "2020-11-29T21:34:20Z")
> [@CardboardBoxx](#): > > Betfair is an exchange, so they’re not losing money under any circumstances, but there is still a lot of money there from punters still backing Trump. To my mind getting £1 back for each £22 you risk is almost like free money, but I’m still too risk averse to take it up. I think it’s a great deal for anybody who likes a little risk though. There are still people willing to put up money against a bet for Biden winning? If I put up $2200 and Biden wins, I collect $2300? Is there some catch here? Like I can’t collect if Trump challenges the outcome or if Biden dies before he’s inaugurated. Or I have to worry that I won’t receive my money when I win. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2020, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/43 "2020-11-29T21:40:54Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > Lance aren’t you the guy who thinks betting markets are the best thing since sliced bread? And that they are way more accurate than guys like Nate Silver? They are still accurate. They are giving intinity to 10 odds that Biden will win. What’s inaccurate about that? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2020, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/44 "2020-11-29T21:44:13Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > This website is taking bets on Trump. It’s called predictt Um… yeah… that website has come up a time or two in this thread if you read carefully. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2020, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/45 "2020-11-29T23:13:17Z")
For completeness… As has been mentioned repeatedly in this thread, I can’t just go place a bet on Trump at PredictIt. The market is capped. This is what happens when I try… [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/KZI22tXjDpWG1mZWzxH-Ib1_XoAr80eiZhEUZqq_HnQAI-e1LnJ-FymczMtIKNU7R9_h_RXntQWmcGQPPN0fOU5H2U_kczZTvzfkALFK0CJc4G3us3JD9-j4dE0T4Ffh3kJJtH68Cg=w600-h315-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/UrGPSh1ufmB5gJBS8) ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2020, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/46 "2020-11-29T23:33:04Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Um… yeah… that website has come up a time or two in this thread if you read carefully. Yeah I’m with you - I thought that was a whoosh but maybe not. Glad to see a thread like this finally catch legs. I’m one of the “talk me off the ledge” people from the ongoing Election thread. And I’ve brought it up a few times, my concern that in that corner of the internet, there’s still people who believe there’s at least a “13 - 15% chance” that Trump is still President at 5pm on January 20th. That thought scares me to death. ---
**Author:** ![CardboardBoxx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardboardboxx/32/7079_2.png) [@CardboardBoxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CardboardBoxx)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2020, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/47 "2020-11-29T23:34:38Z")
Catch 1: I think you’re an American, right? I think Betfair is illegal to access from most (all?) of the US Otherwise you only lose if Trump is determined to have won the election on Nov 3 by the standard procedure of counting EVs, it doesn’t matter who actually gets inaugurated and any “faithless electors” will be ignored. ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2020, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/48 "2020-11-29T23:49:29Z")
I’d just like to point out that I am NOT putting money on Biden becoming President. If I did, he’d suddenly take a job washing jitneys in Jakarta. And I’d feel like it was my fault. Hmmm, maybe I should bet on Loeffler and Perdue in Georgia… then they’d both drop out of politics (“to spend more time with their pets”). ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2020, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/49 "2020-11-30T00:51:59Z")
> [@CardboardBoxx](#): > > Catch 1: I think you’re an American, right? I think Betfair is illegal to access from most (all?) of the US That’s some catch, that Catch-1. ---
**Author:** ![CardboardBoxx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardboardboxx/32/7079_2.png) [@CardboardBoxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CardboardBoxx)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2020, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/50 "2020-11-30T11:22:24Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > That’s some catch, that Catch-1 It’s the best there is. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2020, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/51 "2020-12-15T16:57:37Z")
> [@Monocracy](#): > > Right now it will cost you 84 cents to buy “No” on the contract “Will Trump win any of Pennsylvania, Arizona or Georgia?” Thanks for this tip. I got in for 1000 shares at $0.85 on 11/29. A little bit over two weeks later that market has settled and I have $985 after fees. Not a bad rate of return. Dumb markets will pay you to make them smarter (usually). [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/pw/ABLVV84JjpjeJFSFLRhyTlgBcYxx6h63QxYP_P8CHjUjMW1Q1_SrF1seIfci6UKDiy5Ccq1mGfVQUUt2emFaFQbvNbAci3iqC3h5efklU25jHOLsBFrDaDE=w600-h176-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/NrJfxtPmUfCBwHzX8) ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2020, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/52 "2020-12-15T19:32:32Z")
Sorry, if I’m misunderstanding. So, Predictit is offering 7% odds that Trump is going to win, but you can’t actually bet on either Trump or Biden? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2020, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/53 "2020-12-15T19:54:11Z")
I said before that Trump was not worth a Pence. I was wrong, he is now worth 13. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2020, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/54 "2020-12-15T19:58:05Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > So, Predictit is offering 7% odds that Trump is going to win, but you can’t actually bet on either Trump or Biden? Here are the current markets open for the 2020 Presidential Election: [https://www.predictit.org/markets/13/President](https://www.predictit.org/markets/13/President) PredictIt is an exchange - they’re not setting the odds, they’re creating a market for people to wager against each other. In many of the markets, there are no available shares to purchase - so you can’t actually place a wager. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2020, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/55 "2020-12-15T20:00:05Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > PredictIt is an exchange - they’re not setting the odds, they’re creating a market for people to wager against each other. This is important and seems to be frequently overlooked. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2020, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/56 "2020-12-15T20:08:36Z")
Now I’m more confused. They’re creating a market to wager, but there are no shares available. So, these “odds” are meaningless because nobody can bet on them? Wouldn’t this be like saying that I’m selling a mansion for a dollar, but having no inventory available to sell? (Not trying to argue! I genuinely don’t understand!) ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2020, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/57 "2020-12-15T20:23:25Z")
No its basically like they have posted some notes from people saying “I am willing to buy a mansion for $1.00 if anyone is willing to sell it.”, and right now no one is willing to accept that offer. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2020, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/58 "2020-12-15T20:29:08Z")
So, there is no actual market for a 1 dollar mansion. Is there any actual market for Trump to win the election if nobody is able to trade on this? ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2020, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/59 "2020-12-15T20:31:08Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Is there any actual market for Trump to win the election if nobody is able to trade on this? The people within the market are able to sell their shares - and they do so every now and then. You just have to be online when they do so you can get in. From what I’ve heard, it’s been sporadic lately. Prior to the election, it was a very active market - lots of buying and selling, and people could get in more easily. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2020, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686/60 "2020-12-15T20:46:00Z")
Do you actually have to be online? or can you put in proxy bids (I will take any offer on a Biden win that is pays more than 1 cent on a dollar) that are fulfilled on a first come first serve basis and counter offers appear? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-can-still-bet-online-for-trump-to-win/926686.md?page=4)