# You have to bet ... a poll and thoughts about odds.

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-have-to-bet-a-poll-and-thoughts-about-odds/754599>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [May 12, 2016, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-have-to-bet-a-poll-and-thoughts-about-odds/754599 "2016-05-12T12:47:29Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 2\
**Page:** 3

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\
**Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-have-to-bet-a-poll-and-thoughts-about-odds/754599/41 "2016-08-05T17:00:19Z")

</div>

I did some quick calcs based on 538’s probabilities with some normality assumptions, and came up with the following probabilities.

Clinton by 6 or more 54%  
Clinton by 15 or more 8.5%  
Trump by 3 or more 6.6%

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\
**Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-have-to-bet-a-poll-and-thoughts-about-odds/754599/42 "2016-08-05T17:14:29Z")

</div>

> [@Buck\_Godot](#):
>
> I did some quick calcs based on 538’s probabilities with some normality assumptions, and came up with the following probabilities.
> 
> Clinton by 6 or more 54%  
> Clinton by 15 or more 8.5%  
> Trump by 3 or more 6.6%

Based on the nowcast, or the polls only/polls plus?

[Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-have-to-bet-a-poll-and-thoughts-about-odds/754599.md?page=2)