C’mon, John, no spoilers!
The difference is the dying-off of Republican voters, of old age, is becoming statistically significant.
The first wave of Boomers have topped 65, & are pushing 70.
Smoking, diabetes, liver damage from alcohol, and other illnesses, are starting their shocking effect.
And it is showing up, statistically.
I’d love to talk more about working class romanticism and effete elite liberals, but I got to vacuum out the Volvo, then nip down to AssWhole Foods and pick up some radicchio and maybe a nice cabernet…
Thinking Trump will be a good president is a *demonstration *of poor reasoning. At least if the person is listening, if they only pay attention with half an ear, and don’t actually think about his policy ideas, but rather support Trump based on name recognition or swagger, there may be some Trump supporters who aren’t committing intellectual malpractice. But actually following his statements and thinking that his uneducated buffoonery would actually produce good results isn’t exactly the sort of thing that you’d expect as the result of a careful assessment.
It’s okay to have mild condescension to an utter dipshit like Trump who’s talking trash. That’s what condescension is for. Trump is courting the stupid, the angry, and the distracted. His coalition isn’t much bigger than that.
It’s not about his views so much as he is breaking many of the PC taboos that are hindering more serious discussion about certain issues, issues which happen to largely affect working class people.
I think you make some really good points about the vagueness of Trump’s positions. I believe, on the other hand, that saying such things as “stereotypical” Trump supporter exemplify the problem itself by applying extreme behavior that is demonstrated by extreme outliers and applying it to the whole; and this merely serves to derail more serious discussion of the issues and their merit or lack thereof.
Politics is a study in tradeoffs. How do we divide our limited resources?
Do we spend more money on welfare or do we lower the taxes on the working
man/woman? In recent years this has come to mean “if you don’t support welfare you’re racist pig fulminating in white privilege.”
If you bring up that men are now vastly underrepresented on college campuses you’re called a mysogenist.
If you worry about immigration policies affecting job opportunities for citizens you’re called a xenophobic bigot racist.
I think many people want more serious discussion on these issues - even a significantly large portion of Trump supporters. I believe the support of Trump is as much a result of narrow minded self interested views on the left as well as the narrow minded religious focus of the right, and anything that breaks down the tired dialogue is a plus in the minds of many of his supporters.
Make sure they have free-trade, organic, non-GMO, radicchio. They were out across the country because of that NPR fundraiser.
What do you mean buy working class romanticism, I am curious.
But what has produced good results in the last 35 years for the working class person, especially rural white working class? What party has done things such as increase blue collar wages, increase union power? Healthcare has been improved in my opinion, but where are the politicians who are coming on strong for single payer?
Furthermore, the biggest group of voters I’ve seen voting against their own interests is urban minorities - the Clintons have supported and implemented numerous policies that have had a severely negative impact on African Americans.
So where is your condescension for the reasoning of African Americans supporting Hillary against their own interests?
I have an abiding sentimental affection for old-school leftism, the Weavers, the Wobblies, “red diaper babies”, Eugene V. Debs, that sort of stuff. Grapes of Wrath. (I’ll make fun of Steinbeck, even as I respect his contribution. Twain, I just sit quietly with my head bowed.)
Its akin to the romance of “common sense”. Politicians pander to that, men like Trump, who tell people who didn’t get the advantage of education that it is no advantage at all, all that book learnin’ ain’t shit next to good ol’ common sense. It’s crap.
Maybe, just maybe its not an improvement over “common sense”, but how could it be worse? Like saying a muscle unused grows stronger.
So is “PC taboos”, also crap. (Had been waiting for that, actually) If political correctness were such a dominant power in our society, we on the left would already have won. We haven’t, and it isn’t. Trump is a rebel, breaking free of the taboo of PC? Please. If he ever once had to worry about whether his kids shoes will make it to the next paycheck, I’ll eat my hat and yours.
No question that there is a group … predominantly but not exclusively rural White and lower educated, and male … that is more than anything else angry. They are most concentrated in the GOP, or more accurately among GOP-leaners.
They know what they believe to be true and distrust media presentation of so-called facts and government sources of information. The overlap between these people and those who are likely to believe the moon landing was faked or that 911 was an inside job or in the power of the Masons and/or the Illuminati? I’d bet quite high.
They love Trump’s brashness and his articulating the emotional core of their being pissed off. This is not about any issues or policies: it is supporting giving all of “the establishment” the finger.
Thing is that historically they do not actually come out to vote. But they may be more likely to answer a polling phone call.
I think that he will lose Iowa and that he might not even come in second and that despite the polling in NH he will possibly lose there too … or minimally win by much less than expected. Whoever is not Trump or Cruz who is second or third in Iowa (likely Rubio) will get those (a majority of NH likely GOP voters who dislike Trump) to consolidate.
So Iowa will be Cruz, space, Trump, Rubio. And NH Rubio, Trump, and then space and maybe Cruz, but maybe even Kasich or Christie.
From there the narrative becomes how Trump failed to meet expectations, how Rubio exceeded them, and it becomes a Cruz-Rubio race.
The pre-season is stranger to be sure, but until the votes start getting cast in Iowa at least it is still pre-game show.
All of the blue collar people I know who believe the moon landing was a hoax or 911 was an inside job are staunchly Democrat. The OWS people I knew in the past were also far more leaning to the left and far more likely to believe in conspiracy theories.
Of course we are all going off speculation and extrapolation, is their any sort of better analysis out there to go on?
Trump has the support of about 40% of about 30% of the US. At this time he’s captured the mindset of a plurality of a minority. That’s not exactly a threat right now to the left, and I think you’ll find the left is very happy with Trump’s campaign success so far. I certainly am.
Well, sorta kinda. Twelve to fifteen well placed meteors, and Trump comes out strong on a Protect us from the sky platform, yeah, that could happen. It would prove two things, that there is a God and that He hates me.
Trump has supported universal health care, higher taxes on the rich, and was against the Iraq War. Dude might be more lib than Hillary, especially if you think his racist shtick is just pandering to the GOP base. But that’s the rub. No one can really tell what he believes.
You misunderstand me, and I think in a very fundamental way. My experience in the the blue collar world is not that we do not disrespect education. The vast majority of people I have worked with respect it highly. What they do not respect is when one uses their education to talk above them, deceive them, manipulate them etc. They know that education is something that is good to have - many of them wish they had that opportunity. They see their situation as one where their circumstances, lack of academic ability, or poor choices have lead them to having this particular lot in life.
It would be similar to a situation where physical size and strength were as important for status and power as education is today. If there was someone naturally much larger and more powerful than you would you respect them if that power was used only to degrade, threaten and intimidate you, your family, and others like you?
On your second point, is it your position that Trump is not doing un-PC things that would have been unthinkable for a candidate until now?
I’m a Sanders supporter - so it doesn’t bother me in the least that trump does not have more support. Unfortunately, however, according to your way thinking, the Sanders folks are even more fringe and crazy
This election reminds me of… elections. At least in this century, this is the new normal.
What I don’t understand is why we can’t remember that. Doesn’t anyone remember four years ago? The establishment candidates were all trailing people like Giuliani and Cain right up until it came time to start casting real votes. I don’t know know whether to consider Gingrich establishment or not, but even he had his month at 30% approval ratings. For some reason, now we seem to remember it like Romney was always the leading candidate.
Even Trump is only new to the extent that he’s a candidate this time. Otherwise, it’s the same-old, same-old. Doesn’t anyone remember Trump’s birther nonsense? Nothing changes!
Does anyone remember it was started by Clinton supporters
Yeah, you’re not supposed to use your education to do that. That’s for folksy-sounding televangelists to use their ‘faith’ to do that.
Y’know, I’ve been watching folksy right-wing hucksters (and not just the ones purportedly selling Jesus, although due to my own leanings, I despise them the most) shear and swindle the sheep, year after year after year. (Ben Carson’s just the latest snake-oil salesman in a long line.) Y’all never seem to get pissed at them, even though they’re taking money from old ladies living off Social Security. They sound like your tribe, so they have a license to steal, and you never get tired of them doing it.
But it’s a hearty fuck-you to us liberals who say about some issue (dealing with ISIS, for instance), “wait, things are a bit more complicated than that,” and all of a sudden it’s too much trouble to follow because for us it isn’t just a dick-swinging contest, so since it’s going over your head, we must be talking down to you.
No, I can’t respect that.
Well we can at least go by party for conspiracy theories. For 2012 anyway.
Many more in the GOP who believe that a UFO crashed at Roswell, in the New World Order, about the same for a faked moon landing and vaccines cause autism, many more (22%!) that Obama is the anti-Christ, fewer that the CIA spread crack in the inner cities, marginally more in all of lizard people/Big Foot/government mind control, more that pharmacies invent diseases to make money. The New World Order bit was 38% and 45% of those who self-identified as “very conservative.” (“Very liberal” was at 12%.)
And an interesting factoid from the latest NH poll. Trump leads 21% to 15% for the next closest. But he also leads in being the one who most answer that they would never vote for: 57% of all likely GOP voters in NH. In comparison Cruz is at 12% on that metric and Rubio is at 11.