# You-Solve-It Mafia Game **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [December 11, 2007, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636 "2007-12-11T18:21:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 72
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1421 "2008-02-01T18:03:34Z")
Rysto and Hockeyeop, if none of you are getting lynched today, who would you vote for? ---
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1422 "2008-02-01T18:07:05Z")
[QUOTE=Hawkeyeop] Zuma, Do you oppose a Rysto lynch? [/QUOTE] Yes. I have problems with sach and rysto. But I think a HNC lynch is more likely to take out scum. My lynch candidates, in order, are HNC, sach, rysto. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1423 "2008-02-01T18:10:55Z")
[QUOTE=zuma] Rysto and Hockeyeop, if none of you are getting lynched today, who would you vote for? [/QUOTE] Brewha, but I think you knew that. My current order is Brewha Rysto Sach Pleo Zuma Hazel Hockey Monkey I don’t think there is any reason to assume the scum wouldn’t do something unexpected on day one. ---
**Author:** ![brewha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@brewha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brewha)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1424 "2008-02-01T19:09:43Z")
I’m heading outta town for the weekend, but should be back in time on Sun before the lynch and I may have internet access on Sat. I’m leaning towards Rysto, HNC, and Faithfool as scum. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1425 "2008-02-01T19:29:47Z")
Things I’ve learned while rereading the thread part three: I continue to find Hockey Monkey and Hazel not scummy. Hockey Monkey thought that any player without a unique trait was fishy. There was no real reason to believe this, but she argued it anyway. We know at least one of those two individuals were scum. Brewha being scum would, in my mind, confirm Hockey as town. Even if only OAOW ends up being town, I still find it unlikely a scum would have pushed so hard for lynching of individuals with unique traits. People have brought up the first Hazel vote, but again I don’t find it scummy. When she posted her “non vote” we were already at a majority. A OAOW vote from Hazel would of only accomplished risking a speed lynch. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1426 "2008-02-01T20:12:47Z")
I’ve completed my re-read, and I don’t have a heck of a lot. One of the problems with this game is that once you start to think that a certain player looks scummy, you run into confirmation bias problems. You can talk yourself into almost anything looking scummy. So here’s what I’m going to. I’ll re-read again and start taking notes on the marginally scummy things that I see. I’ll post them, but with the understanding that I know that what I’m posting is weak evidence at best. You guys read through what I’ve got, keep in mind that I’m probably putting the worst possible spin on things, and decide. Now, **zuma** asked me who I felt was scummiest based on vote patterns. This isn’t exactly my forte, but there’s definitely something that sticks out at me. [Here are the final vote tallies](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9414596&postcount=1307), as collected by **zuma**. **Hawkeyeop** has voted with the majority **every day**. He’s a bandwagoner, and notice that he only voted for **Freud** when it became obvious that she was going to hang(full disclosure: my vote came in 5 minutes before his. Still, at 5-4 **Freud** ’s lynch was not a sure thing at the time). Based on everything I’ve seen, especially today, here’s how my suspicions lie: **Certain is scum** Hawkeyeop **Very Suspicious Of** Hockey Monkey **Could Go Either Way** sachertorte HazelNutCoffee **If They’re Scum Why Do the Scum Keep Harping on Them?** brewha faithfool **Strongly Pro-Town** Pleonast zuma **I Know that I’m Town** Rysto ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1427 "2008-02-01T20:20:27Z")
Oh, and to be clear **sach** and **Hazel** are in the “Could Go Either Way” category because I have strong pro-town feelings from those below them on the list and strong scum feelings from those above them. Those two are the two I don’t have a proper read on at the moment. By the process of elimination I’m certain that the last scum is in that group, but I don’t have any strong feelings about either. ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1428 "2008-02-01T20:23:11Z")
[QUOTE=zuma] Hawk, I’ve read through day 1, and something doesn’t ring right with **sach** to me. I think it’s because he played M5 as town, when I was scum, and we had these debates about killing him, because he was so active, so agressive, and was usually right. I’m just not getting the same impression from him in this game. [/QUOTE] I don’t doubt that I’m playing very differently than in M5. M5 was my first game. I was much more active in the beginning. I’m pretty sure you can map my declining participation level from M5 through The Conspiracy and through this game itself. I have a very different impression of my M5 game. My recollection is that I was right about NAF, and that was pretty much it. I distinctly remember being dead wrong about Kyrie Eleison. Also wrong about fluiddruid, Scuba\_Ben, and Queuing. [QUOTE=zuma] **sachertorte** : You’ve agreed with my theory that **HNC** and **brewha** are probably not both town. What led you to vote for **brewha** over **HNC**? [/QUOTE] My suspicions of **brewha** include his Day One behavior which I have trouble reconciling from a logical townie perspective. In addition **brewha** escaped Day 3, which combined with Day 5’s makes **brewha** my prime candidate. The main argument against **HazelNutCoffee** that I find compelling is the Day 5 vote dynamic which implicates both brewha and HazelNutCoffee. I see the scumminess in how the vote developed around HazelNutCoffee. I do not see the scumminess in HazelNutCoffee’s voting history. I’m fine with lynching HazelNutCoffee based on Day 5, but brewha’s Day 1 and Day 3 in addition to Day 5 push brewha ahead of HazelNutCoffee for me. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1429 "2008-02-01T20:34:34Z")
To anyone voting (or considering) Hazel: Why would she vote for Dio when there were other town members already with votes? If her main goal was to not get lynched, shouldn’t she have picked someone who already had a vote on them? Sach, Do you have thoughts on Rysto? If you have already expressed them, can you point me to where they are? ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1430 "2008-02-01T21:20:44Z")
Hey, I need to get you guys a vote count. Sorry one hasn’t come sooner, but I have been really sick all week. 3 - brewha (hawk, sach, faithfool) 2 - HazelNutCoffee (Pleo, zuma) 1 - Hawkeyeop (rysto) 1 - Rysto (HM) The Day ends on Sunday. 5 votes starts the clock, 6 will end the Day. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1431 "2008-02-02T15:45:33Z")
I had a thought this morning about dossiers. Specifically, I was wondering how it was the **Freudian** had such a normal-looking dossier when it very much seems that she was a killer who lied about it. So I asked myself, “If I were scum, how would I lie about my dossier to make the lie plausible?” And the answer hit me: mix up the scum dossiers. There are 5 scum dossiers and 5 private traits, so each silent pig chooses 1 private trait from each dossier. It’s perfect. Each silent pig has a perfectly legitimate-looking dossier, because their dossier is made up of nothing but real traits, and they didn’t have to copy from a townie’s dossier. But each scum also has plausible deniability for night-kills, because it’s very likely that different scum will match traits from different night-kills. Is my explanation clear enough? Maybe a quick example will clarify what I mean. Let’s say we have five scum: A, B, C, D and E. Each scum has 1 public trait(Ap, Bp, etc) and 5 private traits(for A: A1, A2, A3, A4, A5). Scum A would claim private traits A1,B1, C1, D1 and E1. Scum B would claim A2, B2, C2, D2 and E2. And so on. So let’s say A is the night killer. Night 1, one of his traits is revealed; let’s say it was A2. Night 2, another trait is revealed, maybe A1. Scum B can say, “See? I’m not the killer; I don’t have trait A1.” Scum A can say that’s he’s not the killer because he doesn’t have trait A2. Plausible deniability. Unless you’re **OAOW** , the unluckiest scum in the world, and on night 0 A1 gets chosen and on night 1 Ap gets chosen. Night 1: _I once drove a VW Bug through the front door of a 7/11._( **OAOW** ) Night 2: _I’ve had sex underneath the Washington Monument._ ( **OAOW** , **Kat** ) Night 3: _I’ve eaten grilled cow udder more than once._ ( **sachertorte** , **OAOW** ) Night 4: _I once drove a VW Bug through the front door of a 7/11._ ( **Hockey Monkey** ) Night 5: _My great-great-grandfather was a duke in Sicily._ ( **zuma** , **HazelNutCoffee** ) Night 6: _I believe that homosexuals should be allowed to be as miserable as straight couples. If they want to get married, let them._ ( **Hal** ) … Well, fuck. And I was so excited about this theory, too. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1432 "2008-02-02T15:52:08Z")
NETA: Obviously the Night 1 and Night 4 traits match both **Hockey Monkey** and **OAOW**. ---
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1433 "2008-02-02T16:42:32Z")
I am now going to argue against a **brewha** lynch, again. Going over day 1 votes, I find it incredibly unlikely that 3 out of the first 4 **mhaye** voters would be scum. It’d be something I’ve never seen before on day one of mafia. And, while **faithfool** piled up early votes, **MHaye** and I were gaining votes. The **MHaye** votes went like this: **OAOW** **zuma** **brewha** **freudian slit** **brewha** had an easy out voting for either me, or more likely a throwaway. And if **brewha** were scum, placing a third vote on **MHaye** , I doubt **freudian** would come in and place a fourth vote. **brewha** as scum making that vote makes no sense. This bears repeating. Scum placing 3 out of the first 4 votes on the day 1 lynch would be something I have never witnessed before. If you agree with me that **brewha** and **HNC** are probably not both town, **HNC** seems to me the easiest one to lynch, based on voting history described by **Pleonast** , which I agree with. I would also support a **rysto** , **sach** , or **faithfool** lynch. And **brewha** I’m tired of doing your homework for you 🙂 I’m by no means a decent mafia player, while being town. I think I’m ok as scum, as I have a bit of an evil streak in me heh. But as town, all I’ve ever done is try to be as open as possible (and it got me killed on day one more than a few times), and have learned to look at throwaway votes, vote patterns, and whatnot as potential scum tells. I’m town, and I think **brewha** would be a terrible, terrible lynch candidate today. So I think Day 5 is very important, and **HNC** is the better candidate of the two. Good god I hope I’m not looking like an idiot on the spoiler boards right now :I We now have 24 hours to lynch and I think we need to get our votes in. ---
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1434 "2008-02-02T17:08:52Z")
[QUOTE=sachertorte] I have a very different impression of my M5 game. My recollection is that I was right about NAF, and that was pretty much it. [/QUOTE] Well, it was **NAF** who kept on about killing you. I’ll give you that. However the change in playing style continues to give me pause. Now I want you dead 🙂 Why can’t I quit you, **sach**? ---
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1435 "2008-02-02T17:16:26Z")
This question is for **sachertorte** : What do you think of my argument that **brewha** would be less likely to be scum than **HNC** , based on my analysis that it would be unlikely to assume that 3 out of the first four **mhaye** voters on day one would be scum. It’s on record that you agree with my opinion that **brewha** and **HNC** are unlikely to both be town. ---
**Author:** ![brewha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@brewha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brewha)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1436 "2008-02-02T17:33:22Z")
I’m really torn on who to vote for. The only thing I have concluded is that **Zuma** is town. I’m a very unpopular person to back and if **Zuma** were scum it’d be easy to convince others to lynch me. I trust **Zuma** and I’m going to go along with Dio’s lynch saving scum. So, **Vote HazelNutCoffee** Sorry to say, but this vote from me is set in stone. I’ll likely not have internet access again until after the day is over. ---
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1437 "2008-02-02T17:36:50Z")
[QUOTE=sachertorte] My suspicions of **brewha** include his Day One behavior which I have trouble reconciling from a logical townie perspective. In addition **brewha** escaped Day 3, which combined with Day 5’s makes **brewha** my prime candidate. The main argument against **HazelNutCoffee** that I find compelling is the Day 5 vote dynamic which implicates both brewha and HazelNutCoffee. I see the scumminess in how the vote developed around HazelNutCoffee. I do not see the scumminess in HazelNutCoffee’s voting history. I’m fine with lynching HazelNutCoffee based on Day 5, but brewha’s Day 1 and Day 3 in addition to Day 5 push brewha ahead of HazelNutCoffee for me. [/QUOTE] **sach** , I’m having trouble with your logic here. I am sorry to keep hammering you on this, but I now want to ask you what it was about **brewha** ’s day one behavior which bothers you. His attack on me? That seems to me to be something scum would not do as I have outlined before. Also, you say you do not see the scumminess in **HNC** voting history. You disagree with the vote history analysis, which, to me looks like a scum voting history. Frankly, **HNC** voting history leaves a lot to be desired, to say the least ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1438 "2008-02-02T17:47:04Z")
I think that the assumption that either **brewha** or **Hazel** must be scum is an entirely unwarranted. Suppose neither of them were scum. Then it doesn’t matter what happens: **Dio** is lynched, **brewha** is lynches, **Hazel** gets lynched, or there’s no lynch. All of these outcomes are equally good for the scum. If that’s the case, it’s very hard to draw any conclusions about what the scum would do: they’d most likely just do their best to stay unnoticed. Just think about this. **Dio** lynch makes just as much sense if neither **brewha** or **Hazel** are scum. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1439 "2008-02-02T17:49:20Z")
[QUOTE=zuma] Going over day 1 votes, I find it incredibly unlikely that 3 out of the first 4 **mhaye** voters would be scum. It’d be something I’ve never seen before on day one of mafia. And, while **faithfool** piled up early votes, **MHaye** and I were gaining votes. [/QUOTE] So since you haven’t seen it before it can’t be true? Why wouldn’t the scum vote in that matter? Because it looks too scummy? Obviously not, as you are convinced that this action alone makes it impossible that Brewha is scum. The scum know what analysis is used to find them. Why wouldn’t they want to trip us up by doing things like this? [QUOTE=zuma] The **MHaye** votes went like this: **OAOW** **zuma** **brewha** **freudian slit** [/QUOTE] It is nice how your analysis eliminates you as a suspect too. Maybe Brewha and you are both scum and you tried a trick right out of the gate. Is that why you are so determined to use voting analysis? [QUOTE=zuma] If you agree with me that **brewha** and **HNC** are probably not both town, **HNC** seems to me the easiest one to lynch, based on voting history described by **Pleonast** , which I agree with. [/QUOTE] Can you answer my question above on why Hazel would vote for Dio instead of someone who already had votes on them? ---
**Author:** ![brewha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@brewha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brewha)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1440 "2008-02-02T17:54:41Z")
[QUOTE=Rysto] I think that the assumption that either **brewha** or **Hazel** must be scum is an entirely unwarranted. Suppose neither of them were scum. Then it doesn’t matter what happens: **Dio** is lynched, **brewha** is lynches, **Hazel** gets lynched, or there’s no lynch. All of these outcomes are equally good for the scum. If that’s the case, it’s very hard to draw any conclusions about what the scum would do: they’d most likely just do their best to stay unnoticed. Just think about this. **Dio** lynch makes just as much sense if neither **brewha** or **Hazel** are scum. [/QUOTE] The way I see it, it would be much easier for scum to add their votes to a front runner than it would be to get someone else lynched. Since I do a great job of diverting suspicion away from the real scum, they didn’t see the point in lynching me, and since HNC is scum, they didn’t want to lynch her. The only other option was to ‘get a bandwagon rolling’ on someone else. I’m feeling pretty good about a HNC lynch. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636.md?page=71) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636.md?page=73)