# You-Solve-It Mafia Game **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [December 11, 2007, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636 "2007-12-11T18:21:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 73
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1441 "2008-02-02T17:59:05Z")
I forgot the second half of that. I think that **zuma** has offered a very good analysis of why **brewha** is unlikely to be scum. Given that, **Hazel** ’s vote for **Dio** makes very little sense if she’s scum. A vote for **brewha** to save herself from a lynch is easy to defend. Trying to start a new bandwagon with mere hours to go is a lot harder to understand from scum. A townie, on the other hand, would want to vote for someone who they felt was scummy. This is a team game, after all, and killing off someone who you to believe to be on your team is not the path to success. So, based on Day 5, I believe that **Hazel** could only be scum if **brewha** were scum, and I just don’t believe that **brewha** is scum. Actually, this “one or the other must be scum” is a very good argument for the scum. Lynch one, discover that they aren’t scum, say “Then it must have been the other one”, lynch the other, bingo, game over. I am not at all happy to see that the leading candidates are **brewha** and **Hazel**. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1442 "2008-02-02T18:00:23Z")
[QUOTE=brewha] The way I see it, it would be much easier for scum to add their votes to a front runner than it would be to get someone else lynched. Since I do a great job of diverting suspicion away from the real scum, they didn’t see the point in lynching me, and since HNC is scum, they didn’t want to lynch her. The only other option was to ‘get a bandwagon rolling’ on someone else. I’m feeling pretty good about a HNC lynch. [/QUOTE] Brewha, Can you also answer my question above on why Hazel would vote Dio instead of someone who already had votes? If it is easier to “vote for a front runner” why would Hazel pick an entirely new target? ---
**Author:** ![brewha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@brewha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brewha)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1443 "2008-02-02T18:05:57Z")
I would bet that Hazel’s vote was intended to be a throw away. She was voting for someone who she thought wouldn’t get lynched. If she voted for me, and I got lynched, she knew that it would implicate her as scum when I turned up as town. If she votes for someone without votes, and someone else gets lynched, she is free of added suspicion. ---
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1444 "2008-02-02T18:22:22Z")
[QUOTE=brewha] The only other option was to ‘get a bandwagon rolling’ on someone else. I’m feeling pretty good about a HNC lynch. [/QUOTE] Alright. No matter **brewha** ’s alignment, that statement was LOL funny. ---
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1445 "2008-02-02T18:35:23Z")
[QUOTE=Rysto] I think that the assumption that either **brewha** or **Hazel** must be scum is an entirely unwarranted. Suppose neither of them were scum. Then it doesn’t matter what happens: **Dio** is lynched, **brewha** is lynches, **Hazel** gets lynched, or there’s no lynch. All of these outcomes are equally good for the scum. If that’s the case, it’s very hard to draw any conclusions about what the scum would do: they’d most likely just do their best to stay unnoticed. Just think about this. **Dio** lynch makes just as much sense if neither **brewha** or **Hazel** are scum. [/QUOTE] **Rysto** , If, yesterday, unknowns **dio** , **HNC** , and **brewha** were all town, we’ve already lost. The late **Dio** votes are the best I have to go with. I think the assumption should be warrented, otherwise we’re dead either way. I continue to draw conclusions based on vote patterns, the very strange **dio** lynch and my maybe flawed conclusion that **brewha** as scum makes no sense, well, should I stop this bandwagon rolling? ---
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1446 "2008-02-02T18:53:07Z")
[QUOTE=Hawkeyeop] It is nice how your analysis eliminates you as a suspect too. Maybe Brewha and you are both scum and you tried a trick right out of the gate. Is that why you are so determined to use voting analysis? [/QUOTE] Yes. You caught us. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1447 "2008-02-02T19:50:32Z")
[QUOTE=zuma] **Rysto** , If, yesterday, unknowns **dio** , **HNC** , and **brewha** were all town, we’ve already lost. The late **Dio** votes are the best I have to go with. I think the assumption should be warrented, otherwise we’re dead either way. [/QUOTE] That’s a dangerous way of thinking. “We can’t win if this is true, therefore it can’t be true”? I’ve seen that one backfire massively in the past(see: “if **storyteller** is scum we’ve lost, so I trust **storyteller** ” from Mafia 2). Examine your assumption. I’ve yet to hear a reasonable explanation for how **brewha** could be town, **Hazel** could be scum and **Hazel** not vote for **brewha**. I don’t believe **brewha** ’s explanation that the scum want him alive. I agree that the scum have been milking the **brewha** bandwagon for all that it’s worth to distract the town, but for the scum, better a dead Townie than a dead scum. Now, perhaps **Hazel** makes sense as scum if the other scum were already on the **brewha** bandwagon. Who had voted for **brewha** at the time? **Hawkeyeop** , **Hockey Monkey** and **faithfool**. Who else had votes against them? **Hawkeyeop** , **Hockey Money** and **faithfool**. I think that **Hazel** knew that there wasn’t much support for a **faithfool** lynch and didn’t want to stick her neck out. I also think that she didn’t dare risk starting a bandwagon against her fellow scum. So she chose **Dio** , who **storyteller** was riding all game long and who I had just FOS’ed. A nice, safe choice. And when that turned into a bandwagon that got **Dio** lynched, all the better. One more townie down. I can get behind this bandwagon now. **Unvote Hawkeyeop** **Vote HazelNutCoffee** ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1448 "2008-02-02T20:17:04Z")
[QUOTE=Rysto] So she chose **Dio** , who **storyteller** was riding all game long and who I had just FOS’ed. [/QUOTE] NETA: It must be noted that **Hazel** had been voicing suspicions of **Dio** for some time at this point. I don’t want to give the impression that she completely chose his name out of the blue. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1449 "2008-02-02T21:14:38Z")
Some more things. Remember the non-lynch of **brewha** on Day 3? The day that **Hazel** didn’t vote? **Freudian Slit** , **Hockey Monkey** and **Hawkeyeop** were all on the **brewha** bandwagon. Now, if I were scum in **Hazel** ’s position, I’m stuck. If I drop the hammer on **brewha** , then this will be the third consecutive day that 4 scum have voted the same way(one of those votes was **OAOW** ’s self-hammer). If I vote somewhere else, it looks extremely fishy. **Hazel** was stuck between a rock and a hard place, and I’m wondering if she didn’t vote because she figured it was the least suspicious thing she could do. Since then, it looks as though the scum have made a concerted effort to not vote together. **Hazel** , **Hockey** and **Hawkeyeop** all voted different ways on Day 4, and while **Hawkeyeop** followed **Hazel** onto the **Dio** bandwagon, **Hockey** actually voted for **Hazel**. ---
**Author:** ![Hockey\_Monkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a183cd/32.png) [@Hockey\_Monkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hockey_Monkey)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1450 "2008-02-02T21:21:23Z")
I would probably concur with you **Rysto** , except I know that **Hockey Monkey** is town, so that kinda blows a hole in your theory. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1451 "2008-02-02T21:23:07Z")
[QUOTE=Hockey Monkey] I would probably concur with you **Rysto** , except I know that **Hockey Monkey** is town, so that kinda blows a hole in your theory. [/QUOTE] I’m not exactly looking to win you over with my theory. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1452 "2008-02-02T21:34:37Z")
4 - HazelNutCoffee (Pleo, zuma, brewha, Rysto) 3 - brewha (hawk, sach, faithfool) 1 - Rysto (HM) 5 to start the clock 6 to end the Day. 8 out of 9 votes cast have been cast, and there are about 24 hours left in the Day. ---
**Author:** ![Hockey\_Monkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a183cd/32.png) [@Hockey\_Monkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hockey_Monkey)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1453 "2008-02-02T21:37:14Z")
It weirds me out that 2 people I think are scum are voting for the other person I think is scum. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1454 "2008-02-02T21:50:38Z")
[QUOTE=Hockey Monkey] It weirds me out that 2 people I think are scum are voting for the other person I think is scum. [/QUOTE] I’m more bothered by the fact that my prime suspect is vociferously defending my other two prime suspects. ---
**Author:** ![HazelNutCoffee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@HazelNutCoffee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HazelNutCoffee)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1455 "2008-02-02T21:55:15Z")
Holy crap. I’m really sorry - something unexpected happened yesterday afternoon that tied me up, and then I was out of the house for the evening - and today I’ve been cleaning madly getting ready for visiting Dopers. I was actually thinking about my vote in the shower today, and Rysto’s vote for Diomedes that immediately follwed mine came to mind. My initial thought was that it seemed really scummy, but if Rysto is scum he’d know both Dio and I were town, which means it doesn’t make sense - a scum starting a bandwagon against town to save town. I know this only makes sense to me since I know my own alignment. But at the very least I won’t be voting for Rysto. I know the day ends tomorrow at 11:30am PST. My dilemma is that I obviously don’t want to get lynched, but I’m not sure brewha is scum. On the other hand, it seems that single votes I throw out get accused of being safe/throwaway votes. Sorry, I have to run - I’m expecting Dopers to arrive any minute, but I WILL post a vote before the Day is out. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1456 "2008-02-02T22:12:06Z")
[QUOTE=Hockey Monkey] I would probably concur with you **Rysto** , except I know that **Hockey Monkey** is town, so that kinda blows a hole in your theory. [/QUOTE] You know, I really don’t like this post. Because if **Hockey Monkey** really were a Townie who thought that this theory had a lot of merit, she’d say that I should look at **faithfool** instead of her. **faithfool** does not fit the theory as well as **Hockey Monkey** does, but she fits pretty well. ---
**Author:** ![Hockey\_Monkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a183cd/32.png) [@Hockey\_Monkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hockey_Monkey)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1457 "2008-02-02T22:26:31Z")
[QUOTE=Rysto] You know, I really don’t like this post. Because if **Hockey Monkey** really were a Townie who thought that this theory had a lot of merit, she’d say that I should look at **faithfool** instead of her. **faithfool** does not fit the theory as well as **Hockey Monkey** does, but she fits pretty well. [/QUOTE] Sorry **Rysto** , that was kind of a drive by since I’m at work. I was just saying that I like the way you are thinking, but you are on the wrong track. I don’t think \*\*faithfool \*\* is scum, so it would never occur to me to substitute her into your theory. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1458 "2008-02-02T23:17:38Z")
[QUOTE=Hockey Monkey] It weirds me out that 2 people I think are scum are voting for the other person I think is scum. [/QUOTE] I think this is because you are wrong on Hazel. If you switch back to Brewha we should be able to finally get him lynched. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1459 "2008-02-02T23:19:40Z")
[QUOTE=Hawkeyeop] I think this is because you are wrong on Hazel. If you switch back to Brewha we should be able to finally get him lynched. [/QUOTE] Translation: “Our teammate is in trouble. Quick, get back on the **brewha** bandwagon.” ---
**Author:** ![Hockey\_Monkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a183cd/32.png) [@Hockey\_Monkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hockey_Monkey)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1460 "2008-02-02T23:58:59Z")
Gah! My head hurts. 😛 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636.md?page=72) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636.md?page=74)