# You-Solve-It Mafia Game **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [December 11, 2007, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636 "2007-12-11T18:21:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 85
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2008, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1681 "2008-02-18T21:23:27Z")
I’m not going to focus on my theory about the dossiers for now. **sachertorte** revealing first isn’t fatal to the theory and I still think that I’m right, but it is reasonable that **Freudian** could have stolen the model trait. I have some other things against **sach** , and if he turns out to be scum then I will come back to this and take a long, hard look at **Hawkeyeop**. My re-read still hasn’t yielded all that much. At this point that’s making me suspicious as hell. This is what – Day 8? – and I still don’t have a read on **sachertorte**? Does anyone? I don’t like that at all. In 8 Days **sach** should have participated enough to give us some kind of read on him. That fact that I just don’t have a clue suggests to me that he’s been intentionally under the radar for the entire game. The only case of any significance that he’s ever set out was his case against **brewha** – and not only has he turned out to be wrong on **brewha** , one thing in that case [stands out to me](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9357780&postcount=971): > [@sachertorte](#): > > The thing I first questioned brewha about was why he accused zuma but did not suspect Hockey Monkey when brewha should have also not be able to match one of Hockey Monkey’s traits to source #1. > brewha responded that he saw Hockey Monkey’s traits in the “other thread.” The problem is, **that’s not what [brewha said](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9295767&postcount=596)**: > [@brewha](#): > > I found some of Hockey Monkey’s traits on the other thread. I found none of **Zuma** ’s. As the day wore on, I found other people posting the same traits as **Zuma** and even found some of **Zuma** ’s traits on the other thread. Now, I think that we can all agree that there is a **huge** difference between “I found some of HM’s traits in the other thread, but none of zuma’s” and “I found HM’s traits in the other thread.” This mischaracterization of **brewha** ’s words, especially given that **brewha** has indeed turned out to be Town, looks very bad on **sachertorte**. **sach** looks an awful lot like scum trying to force a **brewha** lynch through. The other thing that jumped out to me was [this post by storytellter](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9357158&postcount=968). The punchline: > [@](#): > > How many times in the 20 pages we’ve had so far do you suppose sachertorte has argued with some sort of dossier-related theorizing on the grounds that lying scum would alter the statistics? But this time, in developing his own theory, he didn’t consider that possibility? That seems… unusual. > > Unless. > > If sach is scum, then he knows that two matching traits is actually rare because he knows the true contents of all the dossiers. The statement above would have seemed innocuous to him making it, particularly if - and I’ve been wondering about this - the scum have lied not at all or relatively little about their dossiers. That would explain: (1) why sach has emphasized the idea that “scum will lie” the whole game long; and (2) why he assumed Hockey Monkey’s spreadsheet would be identical to the true dossier composition for the purposes of analysis. Given the information we’ve acquired since, we must conclude that the scum have in fact lied on their dossiers. However, that does not change the core of **storyteller** ’s argument for me: after going on and on about scum will lie and that we can’t trust the private data, **sachertorte** goes off and makes an argument that trusts the private data. This inconsistency bugs the hell out of me. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2008, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1682 "2008-02-18T23:28:45Z")
I forgot to discuss my vote today. Unless somebody posts a really compelling case(and the likelihood of even seeing a case seems to be approaching zero), my vote will be for **sachertorte**. Given that we have no margin for error, I am not going to place that vote now, but I will before the deadline. **Pleonast** , **faithfool** , here’s to hoping that I’m going to hear from you both toDay. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2008, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1683 "2008-02-19T00:43:31Z")
While I hate to interrupt Rysto, he seems to have a good conversation with himself going on, I do think it is interesting to look at Brewha’s dossier. Brewha’s death was an odd one, and not just because I was about 165% convinced he was scum. He was a person who had suspicion upon him, and most recently, voted to lynch a town member. My guess is that Brewha did not share as many dossiers with the scum as the remaining town members do. So, as another point in my defense, I shared 2 traits with Brewha, one of which you know I’m not lying about. Rysto, Pleo, and Faith all share a trait with Brewha, while Sach does not. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2008, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1684 "2008-02-19T01:00:01Z")
> [@](#): > > I do think it is interesting to look at Brewha’s dossier. Brewha’s death was an odd one, and not just because I was about 165% convinced he was scum. He was a person who had suspicion upon him, and most recently, voted to lynch a town member. My guess is that Brewha did not share as many dossiers with the scum as the remaining town members do. So, as another point in my defense, I shared 2 traits with Brewha, one of which you know I’m not lying about. Rysto, Pleo, and Faith all share a trait with Brewha, while Sach does not. That’s a stretch. Trying to figure out why certain players have been killed can be a fruitless exercise. Nobody voted for **brewha** yesterDay. Perhaps the scum felt that he was the townie who was least likely to garner votes. Perhaps he was correct in his suspicions and the scum wanted to eliminate somebody likely to vote for scum(he called out **sachertorte** and **Hawkeyeop** yesterDay, and was vocal about looking at lynching me if **HM** came up town). ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2008, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1685 "2008-02-19T17:11:08Z")
bump Oh, and faith. Once again, I understand if you can’t get to a computer. Real life happens and this is just a game, so I don’t want you to feel like this is me putting any sort of pressure on you. This is just a warning since I think it will get passed on to you via your laptop sharing friend. We really will need you to post and vote before the Day ends or you will be mod killed. Time is running out. I will be back in an hour or so with a vote count and an official time stamp etc. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2008, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1686 "2008-02-19T18:36:30Z")
Checking in in a spare moment. I’ll try to post something substantial this afternoon. When does the Day end, exactly? ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2008, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1687 "2008-02-19T18:46:37Z")
It looks like it should be tomorrow at 12:30 PM Eastern, 3:30PM Pacific. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2008, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1688 "2008-02-19T18:51:36Z")
Am I wrong in thinking that if Faith doesn’t show up today and Naf doesn’t kill her that town members should vote to lynch Faith? I don’t think she is scum, but, in that scenario, unless one scum decides to vote for the other, we lose. So lynching Faith, at that point, might be the only option we have. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2008, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1689 "2008-02-19T18:55:25Z")
Uh, that should be 9:30 Pacific, shouldn’t it? :smack: ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2008, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1690 "2008-02-19T19:10:51Z")
[QUOTE=Rysto] Uh, that should be 9:30 Pacific, shouldn’t it? :smack: [/QUOTE] I was going to comment that you world seems to spin in a different direction then mine. 😉 Ah well, Rysto is right. Tomorrow at 9:20 am pacific time (why not be precise?) the Day will end. There is now less then 22 hours left in the Day. There are 2 votes out: 1 - Rysto (Sach) 1 - Sach (Hawk) If no one recieves 3 votes, the Day will end without a lynch and the game will end with a scum win. Go Team! ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2008, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1691 "2008-02-19T19:16:03Z")
[QUOTE=NAF1138] I was going to comment that you world seems to spin in a different direction then mine. 😉 [/QUOTE] It’s a good thing that I keep catching my own mistakes; otherwise you’d all be sure that I’m scum trying to fool you all. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2008, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1692 "2008-02-19T23:25:00Z")
In order to win, all three townies must vote for the same scum. If faithfool is town, as I believe she is, we need her to show up to have any chance of winning. Otherwise we won’t be able to get more than two votes on scum. I know I should be defending myself more vigorously, but in order to win I need to: 1. Be correct about Rysto and Pleonast being the last two remaining scum. 2. Convince hawkeyeop to switch his vote to Rysto (or both switch to Pleonast) 3. Get faithfool to show up and vote with us. The fact that the best I can expect from faithfool is a drive-by vote (if at all) doesn’t make me think my chances of rescuing this game are all that great. Plus, I have no idea how to convince hawkeyeop that I’m Town. The big thing seems to be that zuma was suspicious of me, which I would argue is a good reason for scum to kill zuma so that they can use that as a reason to vote for me. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2008, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1693 "2008-02-19T23:29:33Z")
[QUOTE=sachertorte] The big thing seems to be that zuma was suspicious of me, which I would argue is a good reason for scum to kill zuma so that they can use that as a reason to vote for me. [/QUOTE] What? Nobody has made that argument toDay. I think that **Hawkeyeop** might have mentioned this yesterDay, but IIRC neither **Pleonast** or I have mentioned **zuma** at all. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2008, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1694 "2008-02-19T23:54:33Z")
I’m stuck this afternoon in a fire drill getting a proposal out the door (don’t you hate customers who call and say “I’m going on vacation tomorrow, can you get the full quote and proposal to me by the end of the day?”). But I’ve skimmed the last two Days. I’ve been trying to put a Scum label on each of you and see where it fits bit. This is not the part of Mafia that I excel at. I apologize in advance if I’ve got this wrong. I think **faith** and **Rysto** are the last two Scum. **faith** ’s game has been all over the place. There’s a lot of meta-game info about him: an early scum tell of asking about a different board. Secret knowledge about his Dossier shows he told the truth (but maybe some of the scum told the truth). The fact we’re still playing despite the fact that a mod-killed Townie faith will end the game. While real life gets in the way, absence definitely favors scum. **Rysto** has been playing a good game. But I find his voting to be subtly anti-Town. Basically what a “perfect” Scum player should do. I’ll place my vote tomorrow morning for one of them. I obviously need the support of **Hawkeye** and **sach**. **Hawkeye** , I don’t think **sach** is scum. I don’t have any real defense for my feeling, except my gut instinct of **Rysto** and **faith** being more scummy. But your vote for him is not helping us. **sach** , I’m not sure why you think I’m scum. Please reconsider your assessment of **faith**. The meta-game argument that since **Hal** knew his Dossier, **faith** must be Town is a weak one to base the results of the game on. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2008, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1695 "2008-02-20T01:30:31Z")
So either **Pleonast** is town or both **sach** and **Pleo** are scum: if **Pleo** were scum and **sach** town, he could easily vote for **sach** and win the game. And if both were scum and I were **Pleonast** , I’d strongly consider voting for **sach** toDay anyway and then win it toMorrow when I vote to kill off **Hawkeyeop**. So I still don’t think that **Pleonast** is scum. **Pleo** , I’ve basically been the only one participating at all toDay. We’ve seen a couple of dubious meta-gaming arguments from **sach** and **Hawk** regarding **Hawk** ’s alignment and that’s it. I’ve been the only one re-reading and posting theories and presenting a case. If I were scum it would suit me just fine to see discussion completely die toDay: apathy definitely benefits the scum. The last 3 Days I have done my best to present lengthy cases based on my best analysis. If you believe that **faith** and I are scum you must believe that **faithfool** is last Night’s killer. Therefore I must be the killer before that, and successfully lied on my dossier about three of my five private traits. My private traits are: **I believe farts are really funny. People only pretend to not think they are.** This is **Freudian** ’s public trait. I can think of arguments for or against stealing a public trait from fellow scum, so I won’t make an argument here. **I believe that cruelty makes foie gras all the more tasty.** Santos Rugger introduced this trait, but didn’t give the exact wording. I introduced the exact wording, and it matched the wording from **Hal** ’s dossier exactly. However, it is possible that I knew about the source of the dossiers, looked through the entire 13-page Controversial Opinions thread and managed to find the exact trait. **I was in a biker movie.** I introduced this trait, and it was subsequently confirmed as a real trait on **Kat** ’s dossier. **I believe that the world would be a much better place if about 25% of the population were taken out back and shot.** This is unique to me. I might have made it up completely. **I started a forest fire by playing with matches.** I introduced this and it was confirmed as a real trait when it appeared on **brewha** ’s dossier. So, if you believe that I’m scum, you must believe that I stole 3 real traits, including one whose wording had never been seen in this thread before, and got lucky enough that none of my real traits were ever revealed. There is a 3/6 \* 2/5 \* 1/4 = 5% chance of that happening. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2008, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1696 "2008-02-20T02:02:53Z")
I have to admit you’re playing the most pro-Town today, **Rysto**. And, I’m close to switching my scum list to **sach** instead of you. What’s holding me back is the niggling doubt that you’re doing to intentionally be pro-Town. Your insistence of my Towniness doesn’t help, either. But I’m willing to be persuaded. I’d like to hear more from **sach** and especially **Hawkeye**. I guess at this point, I’m most willing to vote for **faith** , but I’m not sure if we can get agreement on that. Just to clear where I stand: Most willing to vote for: **faith** Can be persuaded to vote for: **Rysto** , **sach** Unlikely to vote for: **Hawkeye** I will busy tomorrow morning and probably won’t have time for an extended discussion. I’ll definitely put in a vote, though. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2008, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1697 "2008-02-20T02:11:58Z")
[QUOTE=Pleonast] Your insistence of my Towniness doesn’t help, either. [/QUOTE] Here’s why I believe that you are Town: -Your dossier looks real. You revealed one trait subsequently turned up on a confirmed townie’s dossier. You also revealed first. -From Day Six on you and **zuma** have worked so hard to encourage discussion among us Townies. That’s why I trusted **zuma** and that’s why I began to trust you on Day Six. -I have not completed it but I have been working on a case against **Hawkeyeop**. If I believe that **sach** is scum and I believe that **Hawk** is scum then by elimination I must believe that you are town. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2008, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1698 "2008-02-20T03:36:11Z")
[QUOTE=Pleonast] I have to admit you’re playing the most pro-Town today, **Rysto**. And, I’m close to switching my scum list to **sach** instead of you. What’s holding me back is the niggling doubt that you’re doing to intentionally be pro-Town. Your insistence of my Towniness doesn’t help, either. But I’m willing to be persuaded. I’d like to hear more from **sach** and especially **Hawkeye**. I guess at this point, I’m most willing to vote for **faith** , but I’m not sure if we can get agreement on that. Just to clear where I stand: Most willing to vote for: **faith** Can be persuaded to vote for: **Rysto** , **sach** Unlikely to vote for: **Hawkeye** I will busy tomorrow morning and probably won’t have time for an extended discussion. I’ll definitely put in a vote, though. [/QUOTE] If Faith doesn’t show up I’ll vote for her, since I believe it is our only chance. But I don’t believe she is scum, which is why I have trouble believing that both you and Sach are town. My main reasoning for thinking Faith is town are Hal having her dossier and the last two dossier reveals not seeming to match any trait of her’s. I’ll be on tomorrow with more thoughts ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2008, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1699 "2008-02-20T15:33:43Z")
Ha, the board is up again. Two hours until the end of the Day? I want to get a vote in: **Vote faithfool** I can be convinced to switch to **Rysto** or **sach**. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2008, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636/1700 "2008-02-20T15:35:02Z")
[QUOTE=Rysto] So either **Pleonast** is town or both **sach** and **Pleo** are scum: if **Pleo** were scum and **sach** town, he could easily vote for **sach** and win the game. And if both were scum and I were **Pleonast** , I’d strongly consider voting for **sach** toDay anyway and then win it toMorrow when I vote to kill off **Hawkeyeop**. So I still don’t think that **Pleonast** is scum. **Pleo** , I’ve basically been the only one participating at all toDay. We’ve seen a couple of dubious meta-gaming arguments from **sach** and **Hawk** regarding **Hawk** ’s alignment and that’s it. I’ve been the only one re-reading and posting theories and presenting a case. If I were scum it would suit me just fine to see discussion completely die toDay: apathy definitely benefits the scum. The last 3 Days I have done my best to present lengthy cases based on my best analysis. If you believe that **faith** and I are scum you must believe that **faithfool** is last Night’s killer. Therefore I must be the killer before that, and successfully lied on my dossier about three of my five private traits. My private traits are: **I believe farts are really funny. People only pretend to not think they are.** This is **Freudian** ’s public trait. I can think of arguments for or against stealing a public trait from fellow scum, so I won’t make an argument here. **I believe that cruelty makes foie gras all the more tasty.** Santos Rugger introduced this trait, but didn’t give the exact wording. I introduced the exact wording, and it matched the wording from **Hal** ’s dossier exactly. However, it is possible that I knew about the source of the dossiers, looked through the entire 13-page Controversial Opinions thread and managed to find the exact trait. **I was in a biker movie.** I introduced this trait, and it was subsequently confirmed as a real trait on **Kat** ’s dossier. **I believe that the world would be a much better place if about 25% of the population were taken out back and shot.** This is unique to me. I might have made it up completely. **I started a forest fire by playing with matches.** I introduced this and it was confirmed as a real trait when it appeared on **brewha** ’s dossier. So, if you believe that I’m scum, you must believe that I stole 3 real traits, including one whose wording had never been seen in this thread before, and got lucky enough that none of my real traits were ever revealed. There is a 3/6 \* 2/5 \* 1/4 = 5% chance of that happening. [/QUOTE] Now that the scum’s plot to down the message board has failed, back to work. I don’t think you being scum is as unlikely as you say. You could easily of taken traits from a fellow scum and then revealed them first. Furthermore, both the remaining scum have had only 1 trait revealed, so you only would needed to be lucky once, not three times. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636.md?page=84) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-solve-it-mafia-game/429636.md?page=86)