You test positive: what are the chances that you actually have the disease?

[Cicero]

@cerberus

Pr{D} Pr{T|D*} Pr{T*|D} Pr{T|D} Pr{T*|D*} Pr{D|T} Pr{D*|T*}
.0000001 0.050 0.010 0.950 0.990 .0000019 1.000000
.0000010 0.050 0.010 0.950 0.990 .0000190 .9999999
.0000100 0.050 0.010 0.950 0.990 .0001900 .9999995
.0001000 0.050 0.010 0.950 0.990 .0018966 .9999949
.0010000 0.050 0.010 0.950 0.990 .0186640 .9999494
.0100000 0.050 0.010 0.950 0.990 .1610169 .9994901
.0000001 0.010 0.010 0.990 0.990 .0000099 1.000000
.0000010 0.010 0.010 0.990 0.990 .0000990 1.000000
.0000100 0.010 0.010 0.990 0.990 .0009890 .9999999
.0001000 0.010 0.010 0.990 0.990 .0098039 .9999990
.0010000 0.010 0.010 0.990 0.990 .0901639 .9999899
.0100000 0.010 0.010 0.990 0.990 .5000000 .9998980
.0000001 0.005 0.005 0.995 0.995 .0000199 1.000000
.0000010 0.005 0.005 0.995 0.995 .0001990 1.000000
.0000100 0.005 0.005 0.995 0.995 .0019861 .9999999
.0001000 0.005 0.005 0.995 0.995 .0195136 .9999995
.0010000 0.005 0.005 0.995 0.995 .1661102 .9999950
.0100000 0.005 0.005 0.995 0.995 .6677852 .9999492
.0000001 0.001 0.001 0.999 0.999 .0000999 1.000000
.0000010 0.001 0.001 0.999 0.999 .0009980 1.000000
.0000100 0.001 0.001 0.999 0.999 .0098913 1.000000
.0001000 0.001 0.001 0.999 0.999 .0908347 .9999999
.0010000 0.001 0.001 0.999 0.999 .5000000 .9999990
.0100000 0.001 0.001 0.999 0.999 .9098361 .9999899

You did that on purpose didn’t you?