Your crazy, off-the-wall theory for why the economy is getting better

Loving this.^^ And probably stealing it sometime soon.

When ads for various “bingo” websites go away, I’ll know the economy is definitely getting better.

We went looking at jewelry last week. Every jewelry store we went to had cleared out at least a quarter of its retail space for Pandora/Troll beads and bracelets. Even Jared’s is madly trying to sell them. I’m sure part of it is trying to jump on the bandwagon because they’re very popular, but also because they figure nobody’s buying $1000 earrings right now so they may as well try to push $50 beads.

Here in flyover country, we don’t get the high highs or the low lows, and what is happening on the coasts and in the larger cities usually takes a year or two to reach us.

In SW MO housing prices went up 0.6 percent last year, and have not lost value during this downturn. In my line of work, I see a lot of the business trends in the area, especially lodging and food. Most of the motels in town are holding steady for the last few years. In late '08-late '09, restaurants started closing at a much faster pace than opening; probably 3:1. Now it’s about 1:1 closing : opening.

This will be known as the recovery that never came. I think we’ve experienced a serious shift which will be a permanent marker in the history of the USA. The whole culture has changed. 10% unemployment will be the new baseline (used to be 4-5%)… 15% will be the new scary mark. Heck, 8-10% used to be terrifying. The longer we stay at 10%, the more normal it will seem and the rest of the country will be economically modeled around 10% as the new baseline. The culture and dynamics will shift permanently, so that there is absolutely no way we will see unemployment rates below 9-10% long term.

Note: Observations reflect local issues. When viewed as a whole, the USA is wallowing along, not rebounding from a recession.

I’m in NH, and this summer I have seen more Ferraris and Lamborghinis and other high end cars than I can ever recall seeing.

I think there is definitely money out there to be spent, only it’s held by too few people.

Given that, I kinda think the economy in the big picture is neither up nor down but just stagnant, with some people benefiting, but many more taking it hard in the rear.

I work in the defense industry and go to a decent number of tradeshows. When the economy started going downhill, the quality of the giveaways dropped significantly from laser pointers, pocket knives, and flashlight keychains to cheap plastic pens, retractable badge holders, and candy.

I am happy to report that I just got back from a tradeshow a few weeks ago, and they are back to higher end giveaways again, so the economy must be improving…

The actual reason is that businesses and banks don’t know what those regulations will be or what the political climate will look like after tne November elections. I don’t know if they really care all that much what the regulations will be, but at the very least they want to know what they will be so they can plan accordingly.

You really think that thousands of businesses and banks collectively decided not to hire people to spite the democrats? Talk about raving loony.