# Your Democratic Primary Candidate Power Rankings: Post 'em here. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 27, 2019, 11:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148 "2019-06-27T11:36:52Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2019, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/101 "2019-09-14T18:29:05Z")
I may have placed too much confidence in that predictor, especially this early (when betting is smallish). I do know that, comparing their odds with my intuition I thought of betting Romney in '12 and against Trump in '16 … and was obviously glad I did not. I _do_ think Warren is likelier to get the brass ring than Biden. She’s the best and brightest on the stage, while Biden’s age or gaffes are likely to catch up with him. I also agree that Biden is more “electable” … _ **IF** _ he has the health, stamina, and mental acuity to last out the campaign. You make a good point about tying up money (though you’ll probably be able to cash out for good profit by early Spring. OTOH, if you “short” several candidates, you’ll lose at most one bet — is that considered when determining what cash balance is required? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2019, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/102 "2019-09-14T18:43:42Z")
And just for the fun of it, here’s how my numbers this week compare with the Real Clear Politics average and The Economist’s average: ```auto Candidate Average RTF RCP Econ Biden 26.5 26.8 27.0 Sanders 17.9 17.3 16.0 Warren 17.6 16.8 18.0 Harris 6.6 6.5 7.0 Buttigieg 5.0 4.8 6.0 O'Rourke 3.0 2.8 2.0 Booker 2.1 2.3 3.0 Yang 2.5 3.0 3.0 ``` ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2019, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/103 "2019-09-14T21:41:32Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > And just for the fun of it, here’s how my numbers this week compare with the Real Clear Politics average and The Economist’s average: > > ```auto > > Candidate Average RTF RCP Econ > > Biden 26.5 26.8 27.0 > Sanders 17.9 17.3 16.0 > Warren 17.6 16.8 18.0 > Harris 6.6 6.5 7.0 > Buttigieg 5.0 4.8 6.0 > O'Rourke 3.0 2.8 2.0 > Booker 2.1 2.3 3.0 > Yang 2.5 3.0 3.0 > > ``` Can you add 538 too? If you want more homework… 😉 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2019, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/104 "2019-09-14T21:58:37Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Can you add 538 too? If you want more homework… 😉 They have one?? Reason I did this in the first place was because they didn’t have one, AFAICT. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2019, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/105 "2019-09-14T22:05:49Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > They have one?? Reason I did this in the first place was because they didn’t have one, AFAICT. Yeah, I assume they have one for internal use at least but I can never find a running average, just the poll number dump. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2019, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/106 "2019-09-14T22:13:54Z")
Good stuff, RTF! ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2019, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/107 "2019-09-15T00:11:56Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > You make a good point about tying up money (though you’ll probably be able to cash out for good profit by early Spring. OTOH, if you “short” several candidates, you’ll lose at most one bet — is that considered when determining what cash balance is required? That’s a good point. But I am mainly interested in betting against Yang. Maybe in January or February I will try to make a quick profit with some of my savings. Is there a transaction fee? ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2019, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/108 "2019-09-15T00:40:25Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > And just for the fun of it, here’s how my numbers this week compare with the Real Clear Politics average and The Economist’s average: > > ```auto > > Candidate Average > RTF RCP Econ > Biden 26.5 26.8 27.0 > Sanders 17.9 17.3 16.0 > Warren 17.6 16.8 18.0 > Harris 6.6 6.5 7.0 > Buttigieg 5.0 4.8 6.0 > O'Rourke 3.0 2.8 2.0 > Booker 2.1 2.3 3.0 > Yang 2.5 3.0 3.0 > > ``` Why is Booker ahead of Yang in your list? There is no set of numbers where Booker beat Yang in this list. ::MSNBC graphics:: 😛 ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2019, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/109 "2019-09-15T01:09:26Z")
nm ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2019, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/110 "2019-09-15T01:10:37Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > Why is Booker ahead of Yang in your list? There is no set of numbers where Booker beat Yang in this list. > > ::MSNBC graphics:: 😛 Personal prejudice. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2019, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/111 "2019-09-15T02:08:17Z")
Wanted to say thank you too. Cool little project, RTF. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2019, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/112 "2019-09-15T12:57:42Z")
You’re welcome, everyone! I’ve gotta say I’ve been enjoying doing this, so I’ll keep doing it. And doing my own average by my own written-down rules forces me to see things I might have missed, and keeps me from seeing things that aren’t there. For example: much as I want to read it into the polls, Warren’s not on the verge of breaking 20%. (Unless debate #3 gives her a bigger boost than anyone’s expecting.) And the Warren/Sanders inversion, where Warren’s rise in the polls was going to eventually result in her drawing support from people who’d been supporting Bernie, isn’t happening either. Instead, since late July, _both_ Warren and Sanders have been rising in the polls. (I _really_ didn’t expect that.) Combined, they’re now drawing upwards of 35% in the polls now, versus ~30% then. And Biden’s support does seem to be very, very gradually diminishing. If I was seeing this in the RCP average, I’d blame the stuff I didn’t like on the clunky\* way they do their average. But when it’s happening in _my_ numbers, I can’t pretend it’s not happening. - The RCP average turns out to be better than I thought: their rather simplistic average might be off by a couple of points here and there, but per my comparison for last week, it’s not that far off from either The Economist’s average or my own. I still like mine better, of course. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2019, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/113 "2019-09-15T16:43:44Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > They have one?? Reason I did this in the first place was because they didn’t have one, AFAICT. Sorry, you’re right, I thought they did but not yet, apparently. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2019, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/114 "2019-09-15T16:59:24Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > … I still like mine better, of course. 🙂 And you’re not alone! Seriously thanks both for the effort and for sharing it with us. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2019, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/115 "2019-09-18T17:15:07Z")
It’s Wednesday, so it’s time for this week’s polling average: ```auto Candidate Date 8/14 8/21 8/28 9/04 9/12 9/18 Biden 30.1 28.6 28.5 29.8 26.5 28.5 Warren 17.0 16.2 16.8 19.0 17.6 18.6 Sanders 17.1 15.2 16.9 16.0 17.9 16.9 Harris 8.2 7.2 7.2 6.8 6.6 5.6 Buttigieg 5.6 4.7 4.7 5.2 5.0 5.7 O'Rourke 2.6 2.7 2.1 1.4 3.0 3.0 Booker 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.9 Yang 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.8 Everyone else < 2.0 ``` In addition to the three at-least-weekly polls (YouGov, Morning Consult, HarrisX), this week’s polls include new polls A-rated NBC/WSJ and Survey USA, B-rated GQR Research, and C-rated McLaughlin and Associates, and the following still-recent holdovers: A-rated CNN-SSRS and B-Rated Ipsos. And here’s the comparison with the other averages: ```auto Candidate Average RTF RCP Econ Biden 28.5 27.9 28.0 Warren 18.6 17.7 19.0 Sanders 16.9 16.1 16.0 Harris 5.6 6.0 6.0 Buttigieg 5.7 5.7 6.0 O'Rourke 3.0 3.1 2.0 Booker 2.9 2.7 3.0 Yang 2.8 3.3 4.0 ``` ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2019, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/116 "2019-09-18T17:30:27Z")
Thanks again. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2019, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/117 "2019-09-18T19:10:33Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > And the Warren/Sanders inversion, where Warren’s rise in the polls was going to eventually result in her drawing support from people who’d been supporting Bernie, isn’t happening either. Instead, since late July, _both_ Warren and Sanders have been rising in the polls. (I _really_ didn’t expect that.) Combined, they’re now drawing upwards of 35% in the polls now, versus ~30% then. And Biden’s support does seem to be very, very gradually diminishing. What mostly seems to be happening is that while Biden support is slightly( but not yet seriously )eroding, the main trend is Warren/Sanders getting fatter by devouring the declining Harris base. The Big Four looks to be consolidating towards the Big Three. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2019, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/118 "2019-09-19T15:10:36Z")
> **[There’s A Better Case For A Top 2 Than A Top 3](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/theres-a-better-case-for-a-top-2-than-a-top-3/)** > > Before last week’s debate, I argued that there was a lot of ambiguity as to who belonged in the top tier in the Democratic primary. Depending on which factors y… Argues for what we’ve been saying for a bit: Biden and Warren are a clear top two. Sanders not in that group anymore. Also shares a weighted average using the same approach as their presidential approval tracker for both national and Iowa. National Biden 30.2 Warren 20.4 Sanders 16.6 Iowa Warren 23.5 Biden 20.6 Sanders 12.5 Using after last debate polls. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2019, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/119 "2019-09-19T20:55:56Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > [There’s A Better Case For A Top 2 Than A Top 3 | FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/theres-a-better-case-for-a-top-2-than-a-top-3/) > > Argues for what we’ve been saying for a bit: Biden and Warren are a clear top two. Sanders not in that group anymore. > > Also shares a weighted average using the same approach as their presidential approval tracker for both national and Iowa. > > National > Biden 30.2 > Warren 20.4 > Sanders 16.6 > > Iowa > Warren 23.5 > Biden 20.6 > Sanders 12.5 > > Using after last debate polls. I should point out that only two post-debate polls of Iowa were available for this average. Both pollsters are unrated by 538. As a Warren supporter, I like seeing her name at the top of that list, but I’d feel a lot more comfortable about trusting it if Ann Selzer was one of the pollsters. Nate does say in that piece that a Selzer/DMR poll is coming soon, so I’m gonna withhold judgment until then. As far as the nationals are concerned, I’d love to see their weights, because that’s a bigger advantage for Warren over Sanders than I’ve seen in anyone’s average before now, including my own. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2019, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148/120 "2019-09-19T22:50:40Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I should point out that only two post-debate polls of Iowa were available for this average. Both pollsters are unrated by 538. > > As a Warren supporter, I like seeing her name at the top of that list, but I’d feel a lot more comfortable about trusting it if Ann Selzer was one of the pollsters. Nate does say in that piece that a Selzer/DMR poll is coming soon, so I’m gonna withhold judgment until then. I just noticed that one of the two unrated outfits polling Iowa, Civiqs, also has done a national poll since the debate. They have Warren over Biden in Iowa, 24-16. Well, possible I suppose, since I don’t know shit about what’s happening in Iowa, but it’s still a bit _too_ far in the direction of what I’d _like_ to believe, so color me skeptical. But then I see they have Warren over Biden nationally by 30-24, and they also did a poll right before the debate which showed Warren over Biden nationally, 28-23. Since I believe those numbers about as much as I believe what Donald Trump says, I’m similarly (i.e. totally) discounting the big lead they give Warren in Iowa. (And I’m glad I don’t include unrated pollsters in my average!) So I don’t have any idea who’s ahead in Iowa, and frankly I don’t think 538 knows either, given that their conclusion is based on two polls, and this one’s entirely responsible for the fact that their average shows Warren ahead. There are reasons to _suspect_ she might be leading there, but no evidence yet AFAIAC. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-democratic-primary-candidate-power-rankings-post-em-here/836148.md?page=7)