# Your opinion of the Blue Wave **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 7, 2018, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108 "2018-11-07T00:32:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/61 "2018-11-07T18:35:26Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > I agree that gerrymandering is a problem for the Democrats, but you need more of an analysis than that. > > Part of the problem is simply self-sorting. Some amount of that 5% edge leading to parity in representation is due to things like 85% of San Francisco voting for Nancy Pelosi and 60% of North Dakota voting for Kelly Armstrong. Neither district is gerrymandered, but a lot of Democrats’ votes are “wasted” because they are strongly concentrated in cities. The idea of concentration of votes accounting for the problem, though, should balance out. Congressional districts are roughly equal in size, and there’s 435 of them. But in fact that does not happen. In 2016 Republicans won the House popular vote by just 1.1%, but won the House 241-194, a wide margin of victory, much wider than this year. election by election results vary; in 2016 the margins roughly matched, but in 2014, the Republicans actually lost the popular vote and still won the House. Overall, Republican vote totals underperform Democratic ones and yet they win more seats. It’s not a huge difference but it’s there. The Senate, of course, is extremely biased towards Republicans. The soon to be Senate is majority Republicans despite the vote over the course of all their elections (2014, 2016, and 2018) being Democratic by a wide, wide margin. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/62 "2018-11-07T18:44:39Z")
Yeah, but you have to take into account California’s jungle primary. It causes general elections for the Senate to just be between two Democrats. Take out the California popular vote when tabulating. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/63 "2018-11-07T19:00:10Z")
Yeah, it’s pretty much what I had hoped to happen, I’m especially pleased with the gains in governorships. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/64 "2018-11-07T19:22:08Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > The idea of concentration of votes accounting for the problem, though, should balance out. Congressional districts are roughly equal in size, and there’s 435 of them. Why do you think it should balance out? It _could_ balance out, but there’s no reason it has to. So far, it appears that Democrats are more likely to be clustered into places where 80% of the vote is Democrat and Republicans are more likely to be in places where, say, 55% of the vote is Republican. Some of that is certainly gerrymandering, but even in the absence of gerrymandering, that kind of thing, where one party tends to cluster more tightly, can still happen. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/65 "2018-11-07T19:24:06Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > God forbid they provide oversight! Precious Trump and his cabinet would never do anything that might come close to violating the law… how dare anyone think about looking into it? You’re misunderstanding. What \*\*Ashtura \*\*is suggesting is that the message sent by voters in House elections wasn’t “Impeach Trump!”, it was a message that we want more sane, more compassionate government, and not this really weird, hateful and divisive government we’re currently experiencing. So… legislate, and don’t spend much time playing Don Quixote and trying to impeach Trump. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/66 "2018-11-07T19:33:29Z")
> [@bump](#): > > You’re misunderstanding. What \*\*Ashtura \*\*is suggesting is that the message sent by voters in House elections wasn’t “Impeach Trump!”, it was a message that we want more sane, more compassionate government, and not this really weird, hateful and divisive government we’re currently experiencing. > > So… legislate, and don’t spend much time playing Don Quixote and trying to impeach Trump. **Ashtura** pretty clearly said that the Democrats shouldn’t investigate the Trump administration at all. That’s nuts. If he meant impeachment, then why would he use the word investigate? If he doesn’t feel that way, then he can say so and I’ll gladly retract my criticism. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/67 "2018-11-07T19:37:05Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > Who expected? You expected +50 seats in the House, victory in the Senate, flipping every well-contested governor’s race? If so you were insanely over-optimistic :). Uh where did you get that idea? And the notion of a blue wave wasn’t made up by me. I just don’t think these results equate to a blue wave any way you squint at it. But imo, this was sorta a bust. We barley won the house, got embarrassed in the Senate worse than was even predicted, and governor’s races didn’t break for Dems like we needed them to. Sure, there were bright spots, but considering what a trainwreck Trump is, and how racist he’s been, this was a huge disappointment for me. Again, mho. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/68 "2018-11-07T19:37:10Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It was the biggest wave in a generation in the House. 9.4 point win in the popular vote. In the Senate, holy crap was that ugly though. And in governors races it appears there was no national trend. So a very mixed election, although I do think it’s fair for Democrats to call it a wave if they want to. It’s also fair for Republicans to be pretty happy with the results. They may have put the Senate out of reach for 2020, which means even if Trump loses, for the first time in forever Democrats will take power without the Senate. Which I actually think would make for a pretty good government. What Democrats _did_ do is stop the forward momentum by Republicans, and that was important. This was not reflected in the Senate, but it was true in local elections, where the Dems were able to split up or take control of legislatures. Florida and Georgia were major disappointments, but you could probably make the case that Kemp won by a razor thin margin because of successful vote suppression. The Dems have about a year to figure out their next move. ---
**Author:** ![senoy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dbc845/32.png) [@senoy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/senoy)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/69 "2018-11-07T19:40:12Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > Why do you think it should balance out? It _could_ balance out, but there’s no reason it has to. > > So far, it appears that Democrats are more likely to be clustered into places where 80% of the vote is Democrat and Republicans are more likely to be in places where, say, 55% of the vote is Republican. > > Some of that is certainly gerrymandering, but even in the absence of gerrymandering, that kind of thing, where one party tends to cluster more tightly, can still happen. Broadly speaking, white people are more politically divided than minorities. Minorities tend to cluster together geographically. So you end up in a situation where a district is nearly all minority and nearly all Democrat. Democrats win with overwhelmingly large percentages of the vote in those districts. Predominantly white districts almost never vote that monolithically, so even rural districts that are nearly all white still have significant numbers of Democratic minorities. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/70 "2018-11-07T20:41:40Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > They may have put the Senate out of reach for 2020, which means even if Trump loses, for the first time in forever Democrats will take power without the Senate. Which I actually think would make for a pretty good government. No. What would make for pretty good government would be an end to obstructionist tactics. Turn the clock back to pre-Gingrich days. Or even pre-McConnell days. That wasn’t an halcyon era of democracy. But it was functional. The only paths forward involve reform or collapse for the GOP. There’s no evidence for any inclination towards the former. So we are left with the latter. Both sides have had unified control in the past. The GOP used it to pass plutocratic tax cuts, a poorly written one with exemptions ballooning then disappearing in future years. The Democrats used their control to pass healthcare reform. Healthcare reform. There was broad consensus that the US system was broken: rescission and the inability to get insurance for those with pre-existing conditions were two problems. The Dems discussed it for a year, held hearings, tried to arrange a compromise with the GOP. No dice. Until the GOP Senate forms a rump of at least 10 Senators willing to cross party lines, they deserve the support of nobody. In other words, my bar isn’t high. ETA: The reconstruction of the conservative mentality around staunch neuro-typical principles would be something I could support. I don’t see it though. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/71 "2018-11-08T00:17:19Z")
Voters usually aren’t looking for massive policy shifts when they elect new parties to govern. When massive policy shifts occur, the backlash is usually immediate and crushing. Not having the Senate would force Democrats to just govern. No major policy changes, just small stuff everyone can agree on, pass budgets and spending plans, and don’t screw with people’s lives or the economy. If the Democrats prove they can really govern, rather than just pass ambitious legislation they can’t implement competently, then they’ll get the Senate later and can then do what they want. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/72 "2018-11-08T00:47:23Z")
I voted ‘small wave’ but looking at historical results in off-year elections, it wasn’t really that. Democrats did about as well in the House as the out party has done in previous midterm elections after a change inPresidency, but they underperformed in the Senate, likely due to the Kavanaugh hearings. And the popular vote is irrelevant in American politics, and especially in Senate and House races. The Democrats are sorting themselves into large population areas and abandoning the middle of the country where the majority of states are, so in any system of geographic representation they are likely to win the popular vote while losing seats. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/73 "2018-11-08T00:47:57Z")
> [@senoy](#): > > Bottom line is that Dems really overplayed their hand with Kavanaugh. While they were doing it, I thought they were overplaying. Democratic turnout was already going to be sky high and was near peak. Taking a stand on Kavanaugh was not going to bring out more Democratic voters. What you wanted to do was suppress Republican turnout. Giving them a rallying point was idiocy. The Republican talking point was 'If you give Democrats control, they’re going to start a McCarthy style “witch hunt” of Trump and his supporters. So giving them what could easily be portrayed as a McCarthy style “witch hunt” of a Trump nominee was perhaps the dumbest thing you could do. And to what end? > > Kavanaugh was a done deal and I said it as soon as he was nominated. There was nearly a zero chance Republicans were going to let him fall. The drama and the theater just made it something that they could talk about. Who is the Republican base? White men. So attacking a white man when you don’t have a completely solid case makes them all feel under attack and that’s what gets them to the polls. Kavanaugh is what cost them the Senate and at least some of the House. Current Democratic leadership needs to change. We can bash the Clintons for all of their mistakes, but they knew how to play the game. Current Dem leadership is playing checkers at a chess match. Geeze, even Trump wants Pelosi as House Majority leader because they know she’s divisive and someone they can use as a foil to rile their base in 2020. Dems are also going to give her to them, because it doesn’t matter how right the Dems are, you can always count on them to do the stupid thing. Republicans have done genuine witch hunts against democrats (Benghazi hearings for example) and it never cost them any support in the polls. Maybe the two parties are just different. I’m still confused, because I think GOP turnout in 2018 was higher than GOP turnout in 2010. That is counterintuitive, they should’ve had more turnout in 2010 when they were locked out of power. Instead they turned out to keep power, which makes much less sense. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/74 "2018-11-08T01:17:08Z")
Trump can boost turnout. Obama had the same ability while President. I think another contributing factor was that Democrats hyped everyone up. Pretty much from January 2017 on they were talking “Blue Wave!”, whereas in 1994, 2006, 2010, and 2014, no one really talked that way until it got close. You gotta keep that stuff on the downlow.🙂 Spend two years telling everyone that 2018 is going to be a HUGE election means that people will start to think it’s a pretty huge election. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/75 "2018-11-08T02:01:44Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Republicans have done genuine witch hunts against democrats (Benghazi hearings for example) and it never cost them any support in the polls. > > Maybe the two parties are just different. > > I’m still confused, because I think GOP turnout in 2018 was higher than GOP turnout in 2010. That is counterintuitive, they should’ve had more turnout in 2010 when they were locked out of power. Instead they turned out to keep power, which makes much less sense. Fear is a powerful motivator. Republicans fear(ed) Democrats gaining power these days, more so than in 2010. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/76 "2018-11-08T02:05:09Z")
It’s not a tsunami, we didn’t get the Senate or a ton of governor seats. But Trump’s legislative agenda is dead, and the Democratic investigative agenda is very much alive and invigorated. I look forward to seeing Trump’s pathetic shrivelled secrets being dragged out into daylight for inspection. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/77 "2018-11-08T02:09:10Z")
Correct me if I’m wrong, but all the tax returns that Democrats want from Trump are from \*\* before\*\* he won the presidency, right? What are they going to do - impeach him for something he did before he became president? Or do they just itch to scour over them and publish something? ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/78 "2018-11-08T02:25:10Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Correct me if I’m wrong, but all the tax returns that Democrats want from Trump are from \*\* before\*\* he won the presidency, right? What are they going to do - impeach him for something he did before he became president? Or do they just itch to scour over them and publish something? I won’t pretend to speak for everybody, but I expect that when his tax returns are published we’ll see he is a total fraud who was propped up by money-laundered Russian interests. It likely won’t sway the true believers but I want this on the public record. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/79 "2018-11-08T02:28:20Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > Why do you think it should balance out? It _could_ balance out, but there’s no reason it has to. > > So far, it appears that Democrats are more likely to be clustered into places where 80% of the vote is Democrat and Republicans are more likely to be in places where, say, 55% of the vote is Republican. Is there any evidence this is true in cases that aren’t gerrymandered? Looking at past results, it sure seems like Republicans have as many lopsided wins. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/80 "2018-11-08T03:21:45Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > It’s not a tsunami, we didn’t get the Senate or a ton of governor seats. But Trump’s legislative agenda is dead, and the Democratic investigative agenda is very much alive and invigorated. I look forward to seeing Trump’s pathetic shrivelled secrets being dragged out into daylight for inspection. Yeah. It’s not just Donald that is in jeopardy here, and it’s great. You know what else is cool - we have Democrats taking control of the science committees who actually believe in science! > **[People Who Accept Climate Change Now Control the House Science Committee](https://www.vice.com/en/article/8xp9bx/for-the-first-time-since-2010-people-who-accept-climate-change-control-the-house-science-committee?utm_source=reddit.com)** > > Several Democratic House candidates with scientific backgrounds won against Republican incumbents on Tuesday. > [@Motherboard article above](#): > > The combined effect of Democrats taking control of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, coupled with a surge of newly elected Democratic candidates with STEM backgrounds, stands to dramatically reshape science policy in Congress. > > Climate and environmental science will be at the forefront of this shakeup. Under the past eight years of Republican leadership, the House Science Committee delivered an abysmal record on climate science, with GOP committee chair Lamar Smith pushing blatant misinformation about the major influence of human activity on warmer global temperatures. > > Committee members have also been accused of intimidating and harassing scientists, and promoting unscientific views on subjects ranging from industrial pollution to evolution. > > Texas Democrat Eddie Bernice Johnson, a ranking member of the House Science Committee, is favored to take over as the new chair. Johnson has a medical background and became the first registered nurse to be elected to Congress in 1993. She has a long record of science advocacy, and accepts the scientific consensus that humans are contributing to climate change. If all they do is sideline Lamar Smith, it will be a change worth celebrating. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108.md?page=5)