# Your opinion of the Blue Wave **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 7, 2018, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108 "2018-11-07T00:32:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/101 "2018-11-08T18:22:05Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Is there any evidence this is true in cases that aren’t gerrymandered? Looking at past results, it sure seems like Republicans have as many lopsided wins. Sure. Look at state boundaries. States are obviously not gerrymandered; their boundaries were made long before the current political climate. The Democrats are more highly concentrated in highly populated states and the Republicans are more disperse. Look at [This chart](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016#/media/File:Presidential_Election_Results_Swing_by_State_from_2012_to_2016.svg) showing the popular vote shift by state for the 2012 and 2016 elections Look at the very Democratic states. There’s a lot of population there. Look at the very Republican states. There’s not a lot of population there. Look at the slightly Republican states. There’s a lot of population there. Look at the slightly Democratic states. There’s not a lot of population there. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/102 "2018-11-08T18:32:33Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > What does “hold off on the Mueller report” mean? All I’m saying is that the Congress should do its duty – including the duty of oversight of the Executive Branch. And investigating possible wrongdoing by members of the Executive Branch, including calling witnesses and reviewing documents, is well within this duty and an entirely reasonable thing to expect that Congress does. Look, you view the Bengazhi and Email thing as partisan hackery, do you not? I’m just saying I think it would be tactically smarter to wait on Mueller’s report (which shouldn’t be long now), before going full bore investigation mode against Trump. Maybe he’ll do their job for them. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/103 "2018-11-08T18:48:33Z")
> [@senoy](#): > > Bottom line is that Dems really overplayed their hand with Kavanaugh. While they were doing it, I thought they were overplaying. Democratic turnout was already going to be sky high and was near peak. Taking a stand on Kavanaugh was not going to bring out more Democratic voters. Half the voters in this country are women. Something a lot of conservative men seem to ignore. In exit polls, women voted 59% for Democrats and 40% for Republicans. That’s a significant shift; in the midterm elections of 2010 and 2014, women split pretty much equally on party lines. ---
**Author:** ![Blalron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/35a633/32.png) [@Blalron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blalron)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/104 "2018-11-08T18:52:36Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > Look, you view the Bengazhi and Email thing as partisan hackery, do you not? I’m just saying I think it would be tactically smarter to wait on Mueller’s report (which shouldn’t be long now), before going full bore investigation mode against Trump. Maybe he’ll do their job for them. Mueller’s job is very limited in scope. His mission is purely to find out crimes that he can prove beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law. Congress’s job is much broader than that. There are legitimate reasons, besides partisan hackery, for Congress to investigate Russian interference in the election. For example, they may find it wise to draft legislation to combat further interference. Personally I’d prefer an independent commission, like the 9/11 Commission, to thoroughly investigate and issue recommendations for lawmakers. I have doubts that that the Republicans in the Senate would pass it, or that Trump would sign it. In the absence of that, the Democrats in Congress should do their own investigation. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/105 "2018-11-08T21:53:44Z")
Dave Wasserman is the House editor of Cook’s political report, which has handicapped elections for decades. He’s calling it a wave: In 2006/2010, the party “riding the wave” won an average of 57% of Toss Ups, 19% of opposite Leans, & 9% of opposite Likely races per @CookPolitical ratings. In 2018, Dems won/are leading in 57% of Toss Ups, 7% of Lean R races & 3% of Likely races. In the House, this was a wave. [https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1060584485408923648](https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1060584485408923648) We’ll see if it holds up. In terms of the OP, this looks like less than a big wave and more than a small wave. IOW: a wave. > [@Ashtura](#): > > Look, you view the Bengazhi and Email thing as partisan hackery, do you not? I’m just saying I think it would be tactically smarter to wait on Mueller’s report (which shouldn’t be long now), before going full bore investigation mode against Trump. Maybe he’ll do their job for them. Mueller isn’t investigating emoluments. Mueller won’t be releasing Trump’s tax returns. Independent investigation and oversight, which used to bipartisan responsibility, is the only responsible course of action. As for tactics, the Dems don’t take over until January. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/106 "2018-11-08T21:56:19Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Lost in all this is that with a larger margin in the Senate, Republicans are likelier to nominate someone far right-wing to the Supreme Court should Ginsburg or Breyer depart. Had it stayed at 51, they would have needed to find a more centrist nominee whom either Collins or Murkowski would support. But now neither Senator will be needed by the GOP. If they could get Kavanaugh in with what they had before they can get anyone in. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/107 "2018-11-08T22:07:16Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > Look, you view the Bengazhi and Email thing as partisan hackery, do you not? I’m just saying I think it would be tactically smarter to wait on Mueller’s report (which shouldn’t be long now), before going full bore investigation mode against Trump. Maybe he’ll do their job for them. I don’t see a conflict (there are many potential areas of wrongdoing outside the scope of Mueller’s probe), but I don’t have a problem with this if the Mueller report comes soon. And if it does, it’s likely to reveal things that Congress ought to further investigate. And if Mueller is fired, then of course the House should find out why, and find out what Mueller’s investigation learned. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/108 "2018-11-08T22:11:07Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > If they could get Kavanaugh in with what they had before they can get anyone in. Not necessarily. Kavanaugh was replacing Kennedy, a centrist, and so his appointment wasn’t that great a shift in the court’s balance. If Ginsburg (a far-lefty) departs and her Trump-nominated appointee is a far-right judge, there will be an even more intense firestorm. It would represent a massive shift in the court’s balance, one that pro-choicers Collins and Murkowski might oppose. The newly expanded Senate majority would allow McConnell and Co. to ram such a judge through no matter what Collins and Murkowski might say or do. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/109 "2018-11-09T00:02:55Z")
Good map here from the NY Times, using arrows to show which parts of the US shifted toward the Democrats and which toward the Republicans, and by how much: > **[Sizing Up the 2018 Blue Wave (Published 2018)](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/07/us/politics/how-democrats-took-the-house.html)** > > The shift to the left in the House in the 2018 Midterm elections went well beyond the districts Democrats flipped. It confirms what I’d noticed on Election Night – that the Great Plains was where much of the larger shifts toward Democrats occurred. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/110 "2018-11-09T00:04:25Z")
Tues night maybe it looked like a small wave, but right now it looks like a very solid wave, with at least a 35 seat gain likely. If they win the AZ and FL recounts, then I’d definitely call it a big wave. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/111 "2018-11-09T00:08:55Z")
Kyrsten Sinema is now in the lead in the AZ Senate race!!! [https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0](https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0) ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/112 "2018-11-09T00:11:57Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Good map here from the NY Times, using arrows to show which parts of the US shifted toward the Democrats and which toward the Republicans, and by how much: > [Sizing Up the 2018 Blue Wave - The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/07/us/politics/how-democrats-took-the-house.html) > > It confirms what I’d noticed on Election Night – that the Great Plains was where much of the larger shifts toward Democrats occurred. There are a few oddities in that map, though. My district in Wisconsin is shown as shifting FAR to the right – yet my rep Ron Kind, a Democrat, won easily (again). Huh? Turns out he was _unopposed_ two years ago. There’s probably a few such situations sprinkles across that map. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/113 "2018-11-09T02:57:22Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Kyrsten Sinema is now in the lead in the AZ Senate race!!! > > [https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0](https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0) I was not too optimistic when I saw that Sinema was up by just about 2000 votes, but now… She’s over 9000!!! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![edspellman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/58956e/32.png) [@edspellman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/edspellman)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 7:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/114 "2018-11-09T07:06:06Z")
I think that those who thought this was trickle or small wave were a bit premature what with Sinema leading, and maybe even Nelson prevailing in recount, plus house seats left over continue to flip seats to Dems to where 35 to 38 seat win is very possible, clearly this was a big wave election. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/115 "2018-11-09T17:18:42Z")
> [@edspellman](#): > > I think that those who thought this was trickle or small wave were a bit premature what with Sinema leading, and maybe even Nelson prevailing in recount, plus house seats left over continue to flip seats to Dems to where 35 to 38 seat win is very possible, clearly this was a big wave election. 37 seats is the average loss of an incumbent president’s party in a first mid-term in the modern era. That’s pretty skewed by some very big and very small numbers mucking up the average, so perhaps it isn’t worth much. But +37 House, +7 governor seats and -2 Senate( a likely outcome )is a _good_ night. Nobody( on the left )should be depressed about it. But a BIG wave would have been +50-60 House, +8 or more governor seats and 0 to +2 Senate - basically the far end of the 80% confidence margin on 538 curve. This ain’t that, IMHO. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/116 "2018-11-09T23:21:15Z")
I’d call +2 Senate seats and 60 House seats a Tsunami. Kevin Drum makes the case for the big wave: [15 Reasons Why Democrats Crushed Republicans This Week – Mother Jones](https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/11/15-reasons-why-democrats-crushed-republicans-this-week/) Let’s review what’s happened over the past few days: 1. Democrats won a huge victory in the House. Even with all the gerrymandering and voter suppression that Republicans put in place, they won by a popular margin of 7-8 percent. When all the counting is done, they will probably have won about 35 new seats and Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker of the House. This ends Trump’s legislative agenda for good. 2. Trump immediately responded by holding an obviously unhinged press conference in which his nervousness and fear were plain to see. … 3. Overall, Republican flipped seats in North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri. Democrats have flipped a seat in Nevada and are quite possibly going to flip a seat in Arizona. In Florida, they may well prevent Republicans from flipping another seat. Altogether, if the best case works out for Democrats, they will lose only a net of one seat, leading to a 52-48 Senate. That’s not much. It makes Mitch McConnell’s job easier, but it also means that Democrats have an excellent chance of winning back the Senate in 2020, when Republicans have 21 senators to protect while Democrats have only 14—all but one of whom is pretty unbeatable. Republicans, by contrast probably have 5 or 6 vulnerable seats. … 4. Altogether, the Democrats won a big victory in the House, suffered a small loss in the Senate, and won a big victory in the states. They also seem to be doing very well in court cases around the country, and public opinion is very much on their side. Meanwhile, Trump’s ability to win races is getting weaker, but Republicans are stuck with him anyway. More about that in the previous [post](https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/11/in-2018-racism-was-down-but-sexism-was-up-among-republican-voters/) I wrote this morning. > [@GIGObuster](#): > > She’s over 9000!!! 🙂 What, 9000! :eek: Ref: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?time\_continue=9&v=E3dj3TJ1r9A](https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=9&v=E3dj3TJ1r9A) [It's Over 9000! | Know Your Meme](https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/its-over-9000) ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2018, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/117 "2018-11-10T03:41:19Z")
> [@](#): > > What, 9000! :eek: > Ref: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?time\_continue=9&v=E3dj3TJ1r9A](https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=9&v=E3dj3TJ1r9A) > [It's Over 9000! | Know Your Meme](https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/its-over-9000) Napa: “There is no way that can be right!..” Yeah, she is now over 20,000 now! 🆒 [sub]Republicans: “Damn it, Napa”…[/sub] ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/118 "2018-11-14T13:36:36Z")
538 (and Nate Silver) have spoken: Yes, it was a blue wave. > **[Yes, It Was A Blue Wave. No, It Doesn’t Matter For 2020.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/yes-it-was-a-blue-wave/)** > > Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): So we’re here today… I think this thread can be closed now. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/119 "2018-11-14T22:07:11Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > 538 (and Nate Silver) have spoken: Yes, it was a blue wave. > > [Yes, It Was A Blue Wave. No, It Doesn’t Matter For 2020. | FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/yes-it-was-a-blue-wave/) > > I think this thread can be closed now. 😉 Nate Silver, from your link: > [@](#): > > The arguments that it ISN’T a blue wave are dumb. Can we end the chat now and get lunch? ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108/120 "2018-11-14T23:35:35Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Nate Silver, from your link: I’d tack on the related “Arguments about whether it fits a meaningless label are also dumb.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-opinion-of-the-blue-wave/824108.md?page=7)