# Your predictions for the Oscars of 2007 **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [November 12, 2007, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142 "2007-11-12T16:22:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Kythereia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e8c25b/32.png) [@Kythereia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kythereia)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/1 "2007-11-12T16:22:25Z")
My predictions, let me show you them. Let me show you my predictions. I think _No Country for Old Men_, _Eastern Promises_, _3:10 to Yuma_, _American Gangster_, _Michael Clayton_, and _Gone Baby Gone_ all have a chance of getting nominated for Best Film. Viggo Mortensen should get nominated for Best Actor in _Eastern Promises_ (even if only for the naked bathroom scene) and Javier Bardem should net Best Supporting Actor for _No Country_ (even if only for the godawful haircut). I’m about eighty percent certain _Ratatouille_ will get Best Animated Feature (it depends how well \*Beowulf \*ends up doing). _Elizabeth_ will probably walk away with Best Costumes, and _Lust, Caution_ may end up getting the Best Foreign Film, and I really really hope that _Stardust_ gets nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay. Your thoughts? ---
**Author:** ![Labtrash](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/labtrash/32/528_2.png) [@Labtrash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Labtrash)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/2 "2007-11-12T16:56:49Z")
I truly believe we should hold off all predictions until [Opposite Day](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1090674/) is released. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![well\_he\_s\_back](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/3ab097/32.png) [@well\_he\_s\_back](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/well_he_s_back)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/3 "2007-11-12T18:02:03Z")
yeah - hard to have a predictions thread until we’ve seen “Sweeney Todd” , “Southland Tales” and others… ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/4 "2007-11-12T18:07:53Z")
[QUOTE=well he’s back] yeah - hard to have a predictions thread until we’ve seen “Sweeney Todd” , “Southland Tales” and others… [/QUOTE] Other major films likely to be possible contenders yet to be released:_Atonement, There Will Be Blood, Charlie Wilson’s War, The Savages, Juno, The Diving Bell & the Butterfly, The Kite Runner, Beowulf, I’m Not There, The Great Debaters, Youth without Youth, The Bucket List, Margot at the Wedding, Grace is Gone, The Golden Compass_. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/5 "2007-11-12T18:30:19Z")
It’s still early, but **Into the Wild** is a shoe-in for a best picture nomination. I haven’t seen a better film this year, and I’ve seen a lot of the well-reviewed ones. **Lust, Caution** was a stunning film, too, and will surely win for best foreign language film. > [@Kythereia](#): > > I think No Country for Old Men, **Eastern Promises** , 3:10 to Yuma, American Gangster, **Michael Clayton** , and **Gone Baby Gone** all have a chance of getting nominated for Best Film. I’ve seen the ones I’ve bolded, and agree that they deserve consideration. I thought **Michael Clayton** was the best of those, but still doesn’t come close to **Into the Wild**. I want to see a few others before I pass judgment, though. As **Archive Guy** points out, there are a lot of good films yet to be released. I just saw **Control** last night. The cinematography was very impressive, and would get a nomination if I were picking. Maybe a couple of acting nominations, too, but I wouldn’t nominate it for best picture. **Jimmy Carter: The Man from Plains** deserves strong consideration for Best Documentary. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/6 "2007-11-12T18:48:01Z")
[QUOTE=spoke-] **Lust, Caution** was a stunning film, too, and will surely win for best foreign language film. [/quote] [No it won’t.](http://arts.independent.co.uk/film/news/article3146411.ece)☹ ---
**Author:** ![drm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e57/32.png) [@drm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drm)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/7 "2007-11-12T19:21:14Z")
Just saw **No Country for Old Men** and it could be up for five or six: Picture Supporting Actor (Bardem), and outside shot for Kelly Macdonald as well. Editing Cinematography Adapted Screenplay I saw **American Gangster** and I am less enthusiastic about that as I was No Country but it seems to be worth of Best Picture and I’m sure Denzel will get his obligatory oscar nod. **Michael Clayton** seems like a lock at this point. I thought it was quite good. Clooney might be nominated. Other possibilities for Best Picture that I’ve seen: **Gone Baby Gone** - not comparable to No Country but still quite good **Eastern Promises** - kind of cold, but well made. **3:10 to Yuma** - suspect it’ll be forgotten about by award time. **The Wind that Shakes the Barley** - it’s been a while since I’ve seen it but I did love it. It’s an outside shot as I don’t expect many have seen it. Possibilities that have buzz that I haven’t seen: **Beowulf** - frankly I think it looks terrible. I guess we’ll soon see. **Southland Tales** - reviews are mediocre at this point so I’m inclined to doubt it. **Charlie Wilsons War** - looks good, don’t know anyone that have seen it though. **Atonement** - My friends have seen it and they say it’s terrific. Not the type of performances that will get oscar nods (albeit still good performances. **There Will Be Blood** - A friend of mine has seen it and he says it is incredible and Daniel Day Lewis gives an all time performance. I’m less sold on some others **ArchiveGuy** mentioned but I suppose we’ll soon see. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/8 "2007-11-12T19:28:21Z")
I haven’t seen either, but I’ve heard \*\*Tommy Lee Jones \*\* is a possible double nominee this year for both \*The Valley of Eleh \* and _No Country for Old Men_. Anyone here able to back that up? I wish \*\*Samantha Morton \*\* would get nominated for _Control_, she was amazing. I don’t think she will as the movie isn’t getting enough attention, but since she’s been nominated twice before I wouldnt’ be suprised to see her name up there. ---
**Author:** ![drm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e57/32.png) [@drm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drm)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/9 "2007-11-12T19:32:39Z")
Tommy Lee Jones was in fact quite good in both and In the Valley of Elah completely slipped my mind. I suppose it’s a possibility but I think In the Valley of Elah is a better shot for him as people might say he has played a character much like Ed Tom Bell before (I disagree, this character was far deeper). That’s the reason I didn’t mention him under No Country. ---
**Author:** ![Annie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/858c86/32.png) [@Annie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Annie)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/10 "2007-11-12T19:38:30Z")
The performance that impressed me this year was Christina Ricci in _Black Snake Moan_. She actually made Justin Timberlake not suck ---
**Author:** ![jackdavinci](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackdavinci/32/3259_2.png) [@jackdavinci](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jackdavinci)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/11 "2007-11-12T19:45:41Z")
[QUOTE=labtrash] I truly believe we should hold off all predictions until [Opposite Day](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1090674/) is released. 😉 [/QUOTE] I can tell by your tone that this is some sort of really bad movie and you are joking around, but at the same time, the link you gave has no synopsis and so I’m wondering what this movie is exactly? It seems to have Pauly Shore in it, so that gives me a clue, but I want more details! ---
**Author:** ![Trunk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/87869e/32.png) [@Trunk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trunk)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/12 "2007-11-12T19:47:35Z")
I just saw **Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead** this weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sidney Lumet WIN best Director this year, if only because he’s been nominated several times, and hasn’t won, and this might be his last best shot. That, and, it’s a very good movie, and very well directed. I could see Phillip Seymour Hoffman getting a best actor nomination, and Ethan Hawke, and possibly Albert Finney getting supporting actor nominations. The scene of PSH trashing his house is hilarious, sad, gripping, and perfect. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/13 "2007-11-12T20:36:23Z")
[QUOTE=HelloNinja] I haven’t seen either, but I’ve heard \*\*Tommy Lee Jones \*\* is a possible double nominee this year for both \*The Valley of Eleh \* and _No Country for Old Men_. Anyone here able to back that up? [/QUOTE] He’s extremely worthy for _Valley_, but the main problem is that (a) the film tanked at the BO, and (b) it’s an extremely competitive year for Lead Actors. In addition to the obvious contenders (Depp, Clooney, Washington, Hoffman), he has some previous winners (Nicholson, Hanks, del Toro, Daniel Day Lewis) and some promising Academy newbies (James McAvoy, Emile Hirsch, Mathieu Amalric, John Cusack) that could prove quite formidable. The main problem with a nomination for the Coen bros. film (by all accounts, I haven’t seen it yet), is that he’s completely overshadowed by Javier Bardem, who might be considered a front-runner in the Supporting category (though never-nominated Hal Holbrook may rake in the not-to-be-underestimated old-timer vote). ---
**Author:** ![GuanoLad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guanolad/32/42_2.png) [@GuanoLad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuanoLad)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/14 "2007-11-12T21:03:57Z")
I have never heard of most of these movies you all are talking about. That is usually a guarantee for nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/15 "2007-11-12T21:36:45Z")
[Persepolis](http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/persepolis/) is a very strong candidate for best foreign film and could snag an animation nom as well. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/16 "2007-11-12T21:53:32Z")
[QUOTE=labtrash] I truly believe we should hold off all predictions until [Opposite Day](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1090674/) is released. 😉 [/QUOTE] I see it and [raise](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0999872/) you. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/17 "2007-11-12T21:55:55Z")
[QUOTE=ArchiveGuy] [No it won’t.](http://arts.independent.co.uk/film/news/article3146411.ece)☹ [/QUOTE] Wow. Stunningly stupid on the part of the Oscar panel. In that case, **Lust, Caution** should be nominated for Best Picture. I just got back from seeing **Lars and the Real Girl** , which has garnered a lot of good reviews. Fine film, though comedies rarely get nominations. At the very least, it should get maybe some acting or screenplay nominations. I thought the best (and most subtle) performance in the film was from Paul Schneider as the brother of the title character. Alas, subtlety rarely gets rewarded by the Academy. ---
**Author:** ![Labtrash](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/labtrash/32/528_2.png) [@Labtrash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Labtrash)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2007, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/18 "2007-11-12T23:02:15Z")
[QUOTE=Captain Lance Murdoch] I see it and [raise](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0999872/) you. [/QUOTE] [Back at ya](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0970926/) ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2007, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/19 "2007-11-14T20:40:51Z")
Forgot a couple from earlier in the year that are sure to get some Oscar attention. First, there’s [Rescue Dawn](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0462504/), Werner Herzog’s Vietnam war picture. Steve Zahn deserves an acting nomination for that one. Christian Bale, too. And the cinematography is incredible. I would give Herzog a directing nomination if it were up to me. And then there’s [Away From Her](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0491747/), also deserving of consideration. Julie Christie deserves an acting nomination, at the very least. (Incidentally, what are the Academy’s rules about release dates? Both of these films played at festivals in 2006, but didn’t see theatrical release until 2007.) ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2007, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142/20 "2007-11-14T20:46:59Z")
[QUOTE=spoke-] (Incidentally, what are the Academy’s rules about release dates? Both of these films played at festivals in 2006, but didn’t see theatrical release until 2007.) [/QUOTE] For the regular feature film categories (separate from the more specified rules in the foreign language and documentary categories), the only real requirement is that the film play for one full week in a commercial theater in Los Angeles during the calendar year (and not had an airing on TV beforehand). Festivals don’t count. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-predictions-for-the-oscars-of-2007/426142.md?page=2)