# Your reaction to the current (Feb 2018) fallling stock market **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [February 5, 2018, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265 "2018-02-05T22:54:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/21 "2018-02-06T06:20:44Z")
> [@StGermain](#): > > I looked at the recent gains as a bubble, and didn’t count on that money. I’ve 10 years before I can hit my retirement accounts. I figure a lot will happen in that time. > > StG In my case, it’s 5 or 6 years, and I feel the same way. ---
**Author:** ![pullin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c57346/32.png) [@pullin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pullin)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 10:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/22 "2018-02-06T10:34:59Z")
I’m close to retirement, maybe a year or so\* and I’m prepared for a drop. I’m actually hoping it turns into a serious recession because I’m ready to buy, and I’d prefer to work through the next one rather than live on withdrawals. My (unprovable) belief is that we’re gonna have one, and sooner is better than later. So I’m cheering each drop in the Dow that appears on my phone app. \*18 months, or whenever management pisses me off enough. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 10:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/23 "2018-02-06T10:46:30Z")
Yesterday _ **SPY closed below $264. It hasn’t been this low since … December!** _ I didn’t even _know_ about the dip until I saw this thread just now. Couldn’t you have PM’ed me two weeks ago? I’ve lost a bundle just in JNJ, though its fall is due to concerns about their carcinogenic(?) baby powder rather than general sentiment. Miscellaneous comments: [ul][li] _**During the eight years from Obama’s inauguration to Trump’s inauguration, the S&P500 index rose 180% (almost 13% annually).**__**Europe’s FTSE (VGK) rose just 50% (5% annually) and VPL about the same.**_ This is all in dollar terms, but I think an apples-to-apples comparison is reasonable, the Vanguard funds are dollar-denominated and available to all.[/li][li] _ **Between Trump’s inauguration and today** _ SPY, VGK, VPY have moved almost in lock-step (though _ **S&P 500 has underperformed slightly** _). The day-to-day lock-step is almost uncanny; even the falls on Friday and Monday were matched almost exactly. [/li][li] “Dollar-denominated.” A year ago the Dollar was worth 0.95€. A few days ago it dropped below 0.80€. _**A 15% decline in the value of the Dollar (compared to Euro) under Trump.**_ Not as bad a drop as BitCoin’s, but it is key to proper assessment.[/li][li] Is the dollar weakness good or bad? I don’t know and _neither do our leaders._ In the past, Secretaries of the Treasury have proudly touted a strong Dollar as good for America and good for the World. Mnuchin’s take? _He’s not sure if he wants a weak dollar or a strong dollar._ Neither is Trump.[/li][li] Bond yields continue to rise. Recall again that the long-bond interest soared 0.5% just on that distant Election Week. Exxon and Chevron have both been borrowing on the bond markets to pay their dividends. It’s hard to be too sanguine, with the tax cut card _already_ played. What’s next? The inflation card? Not Infrastructure stimulus, I think — at this point, we’d have to hope Mexico pays for it — the U.S. cannot.[/li][li] The Nikkei 225 fell 4.7% on Tuesday. FTSE recovered in the morning but is still down 1.8% on the day.[/li][li] So … all eyes turn to the panicked millionaires of the U.S.A. The market may open near Monday’s close, but what happens then? Do we empty our savings accounts to buy at bargain prices? Or get out before things get bloody?[/li][li] The weird security known as XIV (that’s VIX inverted :eek: ) fell 80% yesterday. Maybe XIV is a good buy now? :)[/li][/ul] > [@Mangosteen](#): > > _Tremendous_ buying opportunity. Just don’t wait too long. Don’t try to time the bottom! I know anecdote is not the singular of data, but let’s start with you! Are you buying big-time today at this _tremendous_ opportunity? (Or did you already go “all in” on fourth street?) ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/24 "2018-02-06T11:09:21Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Is anyone reacting to this WRT their own personal finances? I’m not. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/25 "2018-02-06T12:12:21Z")
It may rain this afternoon. That would be surprising because it hasn’t rained for several days and as a result I expected it would never rain again. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/26 "2018-02-06T12:26:03Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Yesterday _ **SPY closed below $264. It hasn’t been this low since … December!** _ > > I didn’t even _know_ about the dip until I saw this thread just now. Couldn’t you have PM’ed me two weeks ago? I’ve lost a bundle just in JNJ, though its fall is due to concerns about their carcinogenic(?) baby powder rather than general sentiment. > > Miscellaneous comments: > [ul] > [li] _**During the eight years from Obama’s inauguration to Trump’s inauguration, the S&P500 index rose 180% (almost 13% annually).**__**Europe’s FTSE (VGK) rose just 50% (5% annually) and VPL about the same.**_ This is all in dollar terms, but I think an apples-to-apples comparison is reasonable, the Vanguard funds are dollar-denominated and available to all.[/li][li] _ **Between Trump’s inauguration and today** _ SPY, VGK, VPY have moved almost in lock-step (though _ **S&P 500 has underperformed slightly** _). The day-to-day lock-step is almost uncanny; even the falls on Friday and Monday were matched almost exactly.[/li][li] “Dollar-denominated.” A year ago the Dollar was worth 0.95€. A few days ago it dropped below 0.80€. _**A 15% decline in the value of the Dollar (compared to Euro) under Trump.**_ Not as bad a drop as BitCoin’s, but it is key to proper assessment.[/li][li] Is the dollar weakness good or bad? I don’t know and _neither do our leaders._ In the past, Secretaries of the Treasury have proudly touted a strong Dollar as good for America and good for the World. Mnuchin’s take? _He’s not sure if he wants a weak dollar or a strong dollar._ Neither is Trump.[/li][li] Bond yields continue to rise. Recall again that the long-bond interest soared 0.5% just on that distant Election Week. Exxon and Chevron have both been borrowing on the bond markets to pay their dividends. It’s hard to be too sanguine, with the tax cut card _already_ played. What’s next? The inflation card? Not Infrastructure stimulus, I think — at this point, we’d have to hope Mexico pays for it — the U.S. cannot.[/li][li] The Nikkei 225 fell 4.7% on Tuesday. FTSE recovered in the morning but is still down 1.8% on the day.[/li][li] So … all eyes turn to the panicked millionaires of the U.S.A. The market may open near Monday’s close, but what happens then? Do we empty our savings accounts to buy at bargain prices? Or get out before things get bloody?[/li][li] The weird security known as XIV (that’s VIX inverted :eek: ) fell 80% yesterday. Maybe XIV is a good buy now? :)[/li][/ul] > > I know anecdote is not the singular of data, but let’s start with you! Are you buying big-time today at this _tremendous_ opportunity? (Or did you already go “all in” on fourth street?) Too many TLAs ---
**Author:** ![Isamu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/7c8e57/32.png) [@Isamu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Isamu)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/27 "2018-02-06T12:29:41Z")
I sold all my NDQ shares two weeks ago because the level felt precipitous. That was half my portfolio. The other half is day-trading stocks which I am looking at now. I’ll take it on a day to day basis. If the market keep dropping then I will try to sell my most speculative stocks. Probably hold on to the rest though because they were all fundamentally sound IMHO. If it’s just a correction then things will turn around before summer. ---
**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/28 "2018-02-06T12:59:32Z")
Apart from annual portfolio rebalancing in the first week of January - which so far has always meant selling some mutual fund shares to buy stocks - we’ve never cashed out any of our investments, certainly not in response to what the market is doing. The daily news of stock market movements is little more than entertainment to me; all the pants-wetting by the media (and those who buy into it) is a bit ridiculous. Looking forward to seeing what happens today. ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/29 "2018-02-06T13:06:36Z")
I’m a holder, with just a small number of funds. I review my choices and weighting every quarter and re-balance, but I haven’t switched out of any fund in over 5 years (nothing has convinced me to). So, while this turbulence stinks, I won’t be doing anything in reaction to it. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/30 "2018-02-06T13:13:42Z")
I’m not changing anything. I put a certain amount every month into an index fund no matter the day-to-day performance, as I’ve done for almost 20 years, and plan to continue until I retire. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/31 "2018-02-06T15:18:26Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > Too many TLAs You too! Ironically I had to Google to learn what TLA is. 🙂 SPY, VGK and VPL are simply broad averages of large-company stock prices in the U.S., Europe and Asia-Pacific respectively. (Two of them are Vanguard funds.) It’s convenient to add them to graphs at Finance.Google to glimpse stock prices generally around the world. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/32 "2018-02-06T15:25:39Z")
If you’re not planning to retire for another 20+ years and you’re putting money in your 401k, then you should be cheering for the drop. Because the idea is “Buy Low, Sell High”, and right now, you’re buying high. I posted above, the market would need to crater 30% to be at ‘average’ P/E (Price to Earnings) ratios from the last 150 years. I sold off my entire portfolio in the last year for reasons I won’t get into, but I am sitting on 5 figures cash in my account waiting for an actual bargain to cross my screen. ---
**Author:** ![Doctor\_Jackson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctor_jackson/32/32_2.png) [@Doctor\_Jackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Doctor_Jackson)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/33 "2018-02-06T15:49:20Z")
This is the reason that dollar cost averaging (regular, fixed amount investing - like a 401k) is so powerful - when the market is down you’re buying more, when the market is up you’re buying less. I still have an 8-10 year retirement window, so I’m doing exactly nothing different. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/34 "2018-02-06T16:31:25Z")
Something like "NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! I’M RUINED!!! ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/35 "2018-02-06T17:43:49Z")
I added about 35% to my SPYG position. Assuming it recovers, I got it at a 4% discount (like most everything else at the moment. What I’m hemming and hawing about right now is SBUX. I bought it around 58 or 59 so it’s been down since then. Glancing at the chart it looks like it may have recovered from yesterday, but this may have been (still could be?) a good time to buy it on sale and help recover some of those losses…on the assumption that it will make it’s way back up. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/36 "2018-02-06T17:46:54Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > It may rain this afternoon. That would be surprising because it hasn’t rained for several days and as a result I expected it would never rain again. Wasn’t it really cold last week? What global warming??? 😃 As for the stock market, I have my windows open just in case I need to jump. I’m selling everything, buying gold, and moving to Idaho. ---
**Author:** ![Whiskey\_Dickens](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/9fc348/32.png) [@Whiskey\_Dickens](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whiskey_Dickens)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/37 "2018-02-06T18:07:46Z")
I am also in the “waiting for the bottom so I can buy” boat. Judging by the number of people reporting the same position, there’s a lot of people sitting on cash and trying to time the market. Interesting to see if the injection of investment slows or stops the crash. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/38 "2018-02-06T18:11:51Z")
My only contact with the stock market was via my mutual funds, and I got out of them last year as I retired and moved the money to Annuities for retirement income. So no need to worry unless the crisis gets so big that the annuity companies go bust; and if that happens, it’ll probably be the least of anyone’s worries… ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/39 "2018-02-06T18:32:30Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Is anyone reacting to this WRT their own personal finances? > > I don’t have a lot of money, and I don’t “play” the stock market; I’m a believer in just holding, reinvesting dividends, and not reacting to routine ups and downs. However the heady upward trend in the last year _(thanks, Obama!)_ has transported both my brokerage account and my IRA into the low six figures where they were never going to get on their own. I just went into both accounts online and sold off some stocks to cement those gains. I didn’t sell everything, and I didn’t even sell all the shares of the BIG gainers. I might buy back in when things have sunk some more. I just didn’t want to sit by and watch all the gains go away. Yes, I’m contributing to the slide. Sorry. > > Is anyone else doing anything that they can share (see what I did there?)? Well, since my plan is to to buy and hold for the next 15-20 years than I am doing exactly that. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265/40 "2018-02-06T20:33:10Z")
Haven’t paid all that much attention – I’ve been gradually shifting retirement savings from stocks as the time approaches, but it’s still far too far away for short-term fluctuations to matter very much. I was a bit amused by [this whiplash moment](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1F90cgRBzI0) of news coverage. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/your-reaction-to-the-current-feb-2018-fallling-stock-market/808265.md?page=3)