# Zarqawi Killed - Will It Make A Difference? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 8, 2006, 9:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862 "2006-06-08T09:40:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/41 "2006-06-08T15:08:58Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > If anything were more predictable than the sun rising in the east, it would be the Usual Suspects falling all over each other denying that any success in the war on terror was a success. Okay - rather than snark on by, please lay out exactly how the success of this event is going to play out. What will we see in the next week that will indicate this was successful? How about over the next month? What milestones will we view to know that we should hang our heads in shame having failed to believe **Shodan** and his cohort’s collective wisdom? My guess is that nothing remarkable will be evident, and that when we point out that the insurgents continue to engage in acts of violence at roughly the same rate, we will be told that we are failing to take note of all the schools that have been built, or that electricity is available for an additional 15 minutes on Tuesdays. We will then be treated to a rant about the failings of the MSM and aspersions cast at the journalists in the region. If we’re told anything at all, and you (in general terms) haven’t slunk back into your fortified dens with your Limbaugh tuned into the radio, or if you even post on the SDMB any more. Here’s a glass raised to the fallen SDMB conservatives: if only they were here today they could share in your predictive (and exceptionally predictable) outrage. ---
**Author:** ![Sevastopol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cdc98d/32.png) [@Sevastopol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sevastopol)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/42 "2006-06-08T15:09:25Z")
Clearly I was mistaken in confusing our **Ryan Liam** with [the one that](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=286466&highlight=riverbend) opened a pit thread regarding [Riverbend](http://riverbendblog.blogspot.com/) you know, the young woman critical of the war, who _lives_ in Iraq. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/43 "2006-06-08T15:16:34Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > This is the Iraq War, dude, not the pretend War on Terror. Get your wars straight. There is no distinction, as the death of a major al-Queda operative as part of the war in Iraq demonstrates. > [@](#): > > “Victory” in Iraq isn’t even very relevant. I never opposed the war because I thought we wouldn’t win. Winning it doesn’t make it right. Sounds like you are hedging your bets so that you can condemn whatever happens, no matter what happens. Like I said, the same will happen if and when we get bin Laden. A constant chorus of “we should be concentrating on bin Laden!” followed by “this means nothing! Nothing, I tell you!” Just like it was “we should be concentrating on al-Queda” until we kill its most active operative, when it switched to “this is terrible - there will be a thousand more recruits!” > [@Hentor the Barbarian](#): > > What will we see in the next week that will indicate this was successful? We will see the Usual Suspects hail it as a major defeat for the US, an opportunity to condemn Bush, and a dozen or so Pit threads will be spawned attacking anyone and anything they can think of relating to it. That’s often an indication. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/44 "2006-06-08T15:16:40Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > This is the Iraq War, dude, not the pretend War on Terror. Get your wars straight Actually, Zarqawi fits into both. I’m with \*\*JC \*\*on this one. I don’t know how al-Qaeda in Iraq (or whatever he group is called) is organized and I don’t think anyone here does either. There are (at a high level) two wars going on in Iraq-- one is a power struggle between the various ethnic groups and the other (Zarqawi’s war) is one of broad terrorism with no specific political objective. To the extent that US troops remain in Iraq to eradicate Zarqawi’s war, this may help us get out of there sooner. I’d like to hope that’s the case, but I’m not overly optimistic. I think **DtC** ’s hydra analysis is a good one for the civil strife going on right now, but I’m not so sure it’s correct for the al-Qaeda inspired terrorism that exists there. We’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/45 "2006-06-08T15:24:05Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > We will see the Usual Suspects hail it as a major defeat for the US, an opportunity to condemn Bush, and a dozen or so Pit threads will be spawned attacking anyone and anything they can think of relating to it. > > That’s often an indication. > > Regards, > Shodan I take this as an indication that you are unable to identify anything that will actually determine whether this event can be called a success in regards to the war in Iraq or the War on Terror. Either that, or you are unwilling to actually commit to any standards of measurement, lest it be evident that you were wrong about this, too. ---
**Author:** ![Loopydude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e56c9b/32.png) [@Loopydude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loopydude)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/46 "2006-06-08T15:28:11Z")
One thing definitely worth considering is al-Zarqawi’s death may have been, to a significan extent, an inside job. We wouldn’t have found him without tipoffs (see **Haroborwolf** above), and the scuttlebutt appears to be these tipoffs may have come from fairly high up in the AQ food chain. Perhaps OBL and/or others who are by no means friends of the USA _wanted_ him dead. al-Zarqawi’s brand of insurgency was a particularly swaggering, brutal, and dirty one (from an Arab perspective, at least), where innocent Iraqis were frequently and quite deliberately targeted to foment internal conflict, the idea being that fanning the flames of sectarian hatred within Iraq would precipitate conditions that would speed US withdrawl. al-Z. made a _lot_ of enemies both within and outside of Iraq with this program, and it’s probably a safe bet those enemies included other AQ leadership. His movement certainly seems conterproductive considering some of OBL’s stated goals, as well as his exhortations for Iraqis to stop killing each other and focus on Americans. So, again, that’s something to think about pretty seriously, I suspect. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/47 "2006-06-08T15:38:55Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > It will make about as much difference as the 473 times the US has captured the #2 man in al Qaeda. Getting bin Laden himself would not make appreciable difference. One leader falls, another takes his place. Would the US have given up in WW II if Eisenhower had been killed? Of course not. Guys like Zarqawu and bin Laden were created by terrorism, not the other way around. The number 2 man in Al Qaeda is [Ayman al-Zawahiri](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zawahiri). Always was and always will be until the happy day when he is killed or captured. I’ve never understood this meme on the left that we’re always getting the number two guy. Zawahiri is the number two guy, a fact that was well known even before 9/11. Zarqawi was the head of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, and was frequently at odds with the regular Al-Qaeda, especially over his attacks which killed Arabs, like the Jordan hotel bombings. Sorry for the hijack. As far as the OP, it won’t make that much of a difference. First someone else is going to replace him. Second, the problem in Iraq isn’t Zarqawi, it’s the lawless chaos that allows someone like him, or the sectarian gangs, to flourish. I’m still glad he’s dead, and I hope the bastard suffered. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/48 "2006-06-08T15:41:05Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > If anything were more predictable than the sun rising in the east, it would be the Usual Suspects falling all over each other denying that any success in the war on terror was a success. (a) What **Dio** said. Wrong war. What we’re talking about here is the violence in Iraq. You’ve probably noticed that Sunnis and Shi’ites are killing each other in fairly significant numbers of late. You’ve also probably realized that killing Zarqawi isn’t going to make the animosity underlying those killings go away, nor do those on either side lack the means to continue the killing. (b) Sure, it’s a success; it’s just not a particularly meaningful one, in terms of the big picture. Compared to, say, [Saddam’s capture](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=4350482&postcount=62), this should be small potatoes. As you can see from that link, and the one above referencing Uday and Qusay, I have had my moments of celebration over such transitory victories. I have learned that there’s no point in celebrating. Do you claim I should have learned some other lesson? If so, make your case. > [@](#): > > Next most predictable will be the instant flip-flop from “why aren’t we concentrating on bin Laden” to “this is meaningless” when and if we kill bin Laden. Everybody knows why we aren’t concentrating on bin Laden: virtually our entire conventional military might is bogged down in Iraq. Despite that - and despite the reality that bin Laden’s death or capture would be less significant strategically now, under what is believed to be a much more decentralized al Qaeda network, than it would have been three or four years ago - our failure to kill or capture the man behind the killing of 3000 Americans on 9/11 is still a huge failure. We owe it to the dead, and to their survivors, to make sure he doesn’t get away with it. > [@](#): > > Knee-jerk condemnation of everything and anything related to Bush and the war on terror. Imagine my surprise. 😉 Hey, imagine **Shodan** reflexively defending Bush, no matter how great the fuckup. Who’d’a thunk? ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/49 "2006-06-08T15:42:06Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > I’m with \*\*JC \*\*on this one. I don’t know how al-Qaeda in Iraq (or whatever he group is called) is organized and I don’t think anyone here does either. However, we did see [this bit of information back in April:](http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iraq/articles/20060407.aspx) > [@](#): > > Following months of rumors, it’s pretty much been confirmed that al Qaeda-in-Iraq leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi has been demoted. An Iraqi Sunni now heads the operation, with Zarqawi just dealing with “military matters.” Even in that respect, Zarqawi is probably on a short leash. IIRC, there were later reports that Zarqawi _regained_ his leading position, but it’s tough to decide what’s believable, and what’s BS. Regardless of how hard it is to confirm details, it does seem that al-Qaeda in Iraq has a viable organization even without Zarqawi. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/50 "2006-06-08T15:48:05Z")
\*\*[King Canute Speaks:](http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060608/pl_nm/iraq_zarqawi_bush_dc_5) \*\* > [@](#): > > Wednesday’s death of the Jordanian-born Zarqawi “is a severe blow to al Qaeda,” a victory in the war on terrorism, and “an opportunity for Iraq’s new government to turn the tide in this struggle.” Thank God this isn’t just another corner turning! ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/51 "2006-06-08T15:49:28Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > Thank God this isn’t just another corner turning! Or an important milestone. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/52 "2006-06-08T15:50:16Z")
But is it “death throes”? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/53 "2006-06-08T15:55:07Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > I take whatever Juan says with a pinch of Salt, most of what he talks about is off the mark even with relative facts. > > [http://iraqpundit.blogspot.com/](http://iraqpundit.blogspot.com/) > > This blog punches a few holes in what he says, and has added value because it comes from an Iraq. Sorry, I don’t do “there’s a rebuttal to you _somewhere_ at this link, why don’t you go look for it?” If you want to make an argument, make it, and dig up your own support. It’s not my job to find the support for your argument _and_ for my own, thanks. > [@](#): > > The Iraqi police got around the area first and surrounded it, helped claim Zarqawis body, intelligence was also dependent on Iraqis, all the US did was primarily blow the bastard to bits. Cite? I haven’t seen this in the news reports I’ve read. If they had him surrounded, though, they should have been able to capture him on their own if they were any good. Obviously we didn’t have much faith in them, if it happened this way. > [@](#): > > Yes they do, they carry out the daily functions of government The one essential function of government is to hold a monopoly on major violence. Absent that, all of a government’s other successes are undermined. Now that I’ve reminded you of that, I think you can see that the Iraqi government is nowhere close to governing. > [@](#): > > All which is understandable considering it’s only been 3 years since the toppling of the Hussein regime. All of which would be more understandable if, by most metrics, Iraq was gradually becoming more peaceful and more secure over that period. Unfortunately, exactly the opposite has been happening. It’s one thing to say, “they haven’t come far enough yet, but be patient” if they’re going in the right direction. If they’re not, it makes no sense at all. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/54 "2006-06-08T15:58:39Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Sounds like you are hedging your bets so that you can condemn whatever happens, no matter what happens. That’s bullshit. Before we ever even began the invasion, I was saying we would win. I expected to win handily and said so. Winning or losing has never had a thing to do with my opposition the Iraq War. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/55 "2006-06-08T16:03:22Z")
I seriously doubt his death will serve as any more inspiration, honestly, or that his supposed martyrdom will have any impact. It will certainly disrupt whatever operations his organization was doing. In time nobody kows what will happen to it. It could whither and die or it could be built up with new leadership. But even if it does die, those who were in it will just create havoc elsewhere with other groups. In the big picture it will probably have little impact one way or the other, but it still had to be done, of course. ---
**Author:** ![DeAngelo\_Williams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f4b2a3/32.png) [@DeAngelo\_Williams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeAngelo_Williams)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/56 "2006-06-08T16:10:50Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Isn’t it past the point when anyone can believe a morale boost will make a difference?.. Morale, IMO, is what all of the car bombings and Zarqawi sponsored video beheadings are/were about. Zarqawi made himself the face of much of that and his death, as that hated face, helps. So, if the US and Iraqi personnel take this as good news, and I think they will, then the answer is yes, it will make some difference. How long that lasts, is a separate question from whether one will or will not occur. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/57 "2006-06-08T16:13:19Z")
It’ll last until the next roadside bomb goes off…which will probably be today. ---
**Author:** ![DeAngelo\_Williams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f4b2a3/32.png) [@DeAngelo\_Williams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeAngelo_Williams)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/58 "2006-06-08T16:17:17Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > It’ll last until the next roadside bomb goes off…which will probably be today. If it does it does. But that doesn’t mean there is some positive side to Zarqawi’s death. There is. ---
**Author:** ![BlackHeart](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/c77e96/32.png) [@BlackHeart](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlackHeart)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/59 "2006-06-08T16:25:23Z")
First thing that came to mind when I read the news was “Uh-oh, thank goodness I don’t ride the subway in the mornings.” ---
**Author:** ![Gozu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gozu/32/6615_2.png) [@Gozu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gozu)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/60 "2006-06-08T16:35:02Z")
Nobody has mentionned this yet but the bombs they used to kill Zarqawi ALSO killed a woman and a child. Now the woman might or might not be innocent but the child certainly was. See, this is what fuels extremist violence against civilians. Why send a bomb that you know is going to kill everybody in the building instead of sending in a SWAT team ? At least give any innocent parties a chance at survival. This is how the U.S gains more supporters for Alquaeda. You can’t say it’s evil to use bombs to murder innocent civilians and children and then turn around and do the same. So, why wasn’t a SWAT team sent? God knows there is no lack of highly trained soldiers in Baghdad. I’ll tell you what an Iraqi will think: To the americans, wrongfully killing innocent arabs and their children is better than risking the injury or deaths of a few of their military personnel. Their lives just aren’t worth as much. Does anyone really think that calling this a war on terror and talking about the inevitability of collateral damage makes it all OK? Frankly, it sickens me. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862.md?page=4)