# Zarqawi Killed - Will It Make A Difference? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 8, 2006, 9:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862 "2006-06-08T09:40:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![DeAngelo\_Williams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f4b2a3/32.png) [@DeAngelo\_Williams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeAngelo_Williams)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/81 "2006-06-08T19:28:21Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Since the next bomb went off this morning, killing 19, I guess the answer is not very long. How do you know that? > [@](#): > > Everything ‘makes a difference’ in the trivial sense that it changes _something_. If I get out of my chair and walk across the room and back, I’m burining a few calories that I would otherwise not have burned. Will it make a meaningful difference in my efforts to keep my weight under control? Maybe if I make a habit of it; certainly not if I don’t. Whether Zarqawi’s death will be trival in it’s consequences is something we will have to wait and see. If someone claims to know the answers — believe me, they don’t. The Iraqi themselves were involved to killing Zarqawi – how will that play out? Will this bring more credit to the Iraqi forces. Zarqawi’s plans for civil war — will that scheme be prosecuted with the same vigor as before? Can it be? Is his death “trival”?? Hell if I know. > [@](#): > > Getting back to Iraq, does Zarqawi’s death increase the likelihood of a more reasonable outcome in Iraq? Does it bring closer the day when the violence will recede to levels akin to that of a civilized society? Something along those lines is what I’m asking about when I ask, “Does it make a difference?” Who knows? Not you, not me, and not anyone else outside of those who have intimate knowledge of the situation. As I’ve already said, I doubt a reasonable person will claim that his death doesn’t make a short term difference in morale – and morale is a substantial part of the battle. However, since this isn’t an organization that believes in public disclosure, I’m not willing to go as far as most on the board and almost assert the fact that ‘yes, there will be some lasting affect that matters’ or ‘no, never, nada.’ Anybody that does is fooling themselves, not me. > [@](#): > > The reality is that Iraq’s basic security situation has been getting steadily worse for the past three years. Has it been getting worse over time because Zarqawi’s organization has been getting more effective over time? Or has it been getting worse, first due to a Sunni insurgency that was going to happen anyway, and more recently due to the upswing of sectarian strife between Sunni and Shia? If the latter, it’s tough to explain why Zarqawi’s death, desirable though it is, will make a difference in what’s happening with Iraq when summer ends. I don’t know what the effects of Zarqawi’s death will have on the long term psychology of the war. Never said that – never even implied it. Now, if I were a betting man, I’d think it’s not going to have any long term effect all else being equal. That said, it doesn’t remove the fact that this news has to be a boost to morale, both military and civilian ---- and it certainly doesn’t remove the possibility that a different al Quida leadership might decide that car bombing Iraqi civilians isn’t getting the job done – or that civil war is no longer on the agenda. Who’s the next new beheading star? Whose face will we all recognize next? Who will be his advisors? Again — Who knows? Point is - anyone that claims that this does or does not change anything long term is really just blowing smoke out of their backside. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/82 "2006-06-08T19:28:44Z")
Anyone wanna guess how long it’ll be before the Bush Administration starts waving a new Al Qaeda #2 to scare us with? And really, why does the Bush Administration keep going after #2? Why not put in a little more effort and go get Mr. Bin Laden #1 himself? Or are they admitting that Osama is more useful as a fugitive bogeyman than a genuine accomplishment in the WoT? ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/83 "2006-06-08T19:39:35Z")
> [@Hentor the Barbarian](#): > > I take this as an indication that you are unable to identify anything that will actually determine whether this event can be called a success in regards to the war in Iraq or the War on Terror. The mere fact that it causes the Usual Suspects to flip-flop is enough to convince me that this is more than trivial. Also the ridiculous fact that you attempted to set up a standard of “if the war in Iraq doesn’t improve measurably **within a week** 😃 then it is meaningless” demonstrates the panic some of you feel at any success in the war on terror. May that panic continue and increase. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/84 "2006-06-08T19:42:01Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > AQ isn’t a very significant factor in Iraq anyway… Although I tend to agree with you on this, I think even those who don’t will agree that we really should’ve gotten that bastard in the immediate aftermath of the invasion. I think it would have been a more signficant event then than now, as he and his ilk would not have been able to stir up more ethnic hatred than already existed. ---
**Author:** ![Birdmonster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/71e660/32.png) [@Birdmonster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Birdmonster)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/85 "2006-06-08T19:45:27Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > Anyone wanna guess how long it’ll be before the Bush Administration starts waving a new Al Qaeda #2 to scare us with? > > And really, why does the Bush Administration keep going after #2? Why not put in a little more effort and go get Mr. Bin Laden #1 himself? Or are they admitting that Osama is more useful as a fugitive bogeyman than a genuine accomplishment in the WoT? There’s always the possibility (probability?) that he’s just uncatchable. I have the minimum of faith in this administration, but I can’t imagine Bushco not going after Public Enemy number 1. He’s useful as a bogeyman, I’d agree, but his capture would be the best concrete accomplishment of Bush’s entire presidency, which, you know, isn’t viewed with much optimism these days. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/86 "2006-06-08T19:48:19Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Although I tend to agree with you on this, I think even those who don’t will agree that we really should’ve gotten that bastard in the immediate aftermath of the invasion. I think it would have been a more signficant event then than now, as he and his ilk would not have been able to stir up more ethnic hatred than already existed. Do you mean in the aftermath of the invasion of Afghanistan? I thought Zarqawi only entered Iraq after the initial invasion. Am I misinformed? ---
**Author:** ![DeAngelo\_Williams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f4b2a3/32.png) [@DeAngelo\_Williams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeAngelo_Williams)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/87 "2006-06-08T19:48:51Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > The mere fact that it causes the Usual Suspects to flip-flop is enough to convince me that this is more than trivial. Also the ridiculous fact that you attempted to set up a standard of “if the war in Iraq doesn’t improve measurably **within a week** 😃 then it is meaningless” demonstrates the panic some of you feel at any success in the war on terror. > > May that panic continue and increase. > > Regards, > Shodan Dude – no lie. I can almost see the clinched teeth. Very strange. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/88 "2006-06-08T19:52:16Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > Do you mean in the aftermath of the invasion of Afghanistan? I thought Zarqawi only entered Iraq after the initial invasion. Am I misinformed? No, Iraq. He was there before we invaded-- hence the critique that we actually could’ve gotten him there before the invasion. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/89 "2006-06-08T19:57:13Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > The mere fact that it causes the Usual Suspects to flip-flop is enough to convince me that this is more than trivial. Also the ridiculous fact that you attempted to set up a standard of “if the war in Iraq doesn’t improve measurably **within a week** 😃 then it is meaningless” demonstrates the panic some of you feel at any success in the war on terror. > > May that panic continue and increase. > > Regards, > Shodan Okay, this makes two avoidant, non-responsive posts. You are certain that this will make a demonstrable difference. I’m simply asking you what indicators will tell us that this is the case. I asked about a week. I asked about months. You choose the timeframe and respond however you like. Just please tell us what will be the positive impact of this event and at what point will we be able to say that you were correct or incorrect. That’s pretty straightforward. Of course, you could simply post another sidestep, but I do wonder why you keep posting simply for the sake of avoiding a response. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/90 "2006-06-08T20:05:43Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > No, Iraq. He was there before we invaded-- hence the critique that we actually could’ve gotten him there before the invasion. Was he the AQ guy who was hiding out with the Kurds? If he’s the one I’m thinking of, the White House had a chance to nail him in an airstrike before the invasion but they chose not to because they wanted to be able to say that al Qaeda was in Iraq (even though Zarqawi was hostile to Hussein). ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/91 "2006-06-08T20:05:52Z")
It’s responsive all right, in **Shodan** ’s own way. His “response” is that, whatever you say, the opposite must be true, and that the worse you feel about something, the better he feels. That isn’t _thoughtful_, of course, but it’s responsive. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/92 "2006-06-08T20:08:05Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > Was he the AQ guy who was hiding out with the Kurds? In the US-protected zone? Yes. Except he wasn’t “AQ” then nor is his operation thought to have ever been connected with Bin Laden’s; he adopted the AQ name \*after \* the invasion apparently as a recruiting tactic. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/93 "2006-06-08T20:08:27Z")
> [@Birdmonster](#): > > I have the minimum of faith in this administration, but I can’t imagine Bushco not going after Public Enemy number 1. “I don’t know where [bin Laden] is. Nor — you know, I just don’t spend that much time on him really, to be honest with you. I … I truly am not that concerned about him.” – George W. Bush, [March 2002](http://archives.cnn.com/2002/ALLPOLITICS/03/13/bush.transcript/) Besides, if GWB actually went after Osama, it’d probably sour things between their two families. Especially since BCCI helped GWB quite a bit with Arbusto Energy and Harken Energy back in the '80s… ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/94 "2006-06-08T20:12:29Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > Was he the AQ guy who was hiding out with the Kurds? Almost. He was hiding out in the Kurdish region, fighting against the Kurds, so I don’t think he was hiding out “with the Kurds”. > [@](#): > > If he’s the one I’m thinking of, the White House had a chance to nail him in an airstrike before the invasion but they chose not to because they wanted to be able to say that al Qaeda was in Iraq (even though Zarqawi was hostile to Hussein). Intersting speculation. ---
**Author:** ![Birdmonster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/71e660/32.png) [@Birdmonster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Birdmonster)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/95 "2006-06-08T20:14:27Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > “I don’t know where [bin Laden] is. Nor — you know, I just don’t spend that much time on him really, to be honest with you. I … I truly am not that concerned about him.” > – George W. Bush, [March 2002](http://archives.cnn.com/2002/ALLPOLITICS/03/13/bush.transcript/) > > Besides, if GWB actually went after Osama, it’d probably sour things between their two families. Especially since BCCI helped GWB quite a bit with Arbusto Energy and Harken Energy back in the '80s… Duly noted. However, that was in 2002, when things were looking a whole lot better for the GOP (at any rate, a mindblowing quote I’d forgotten about). I must mention that our Pres & our country were pretty tight with Saddam back in the '80s too, but that didn’t stop us from digging him out of his hole. ---
**Author:** ![saoirse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/5daacb/32.png) [@saoirse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/saoirse)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/96 "2006-06-08T20:16:38Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > Was he the AQ guy who was hiding out with the Kurds? If he’s the one I’m thinking of, the White House had a chance to nail him in an airstrike before the invasion but they chose not to because they wanted to be able to say that al Qaeda was in Iraq (even though Zarqawi was hostile to Hussein). That’s how I understood it, except for the part about not getting him for PR purposes. Zarqawi was hostile to Saddam, with the Ansar al-Islam movement in Kurdistan. If the Administration had killed him, they could have said that there were more of them in Iraq, after all. I’ll agree Bush is deceitful and incompetent, but I can’t believe he’d pass on a target like Zarqawi except out of ignorance. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/97 "2006-06-08T20:25:11Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > The mere fact that it causes the Usual Suspects to flip-flop is enough to convince me that this is more than trivial. Also the ridiculous fact that you attempted to set up a standard of “if the war in Iraq doesn’t improve measurably **within a week** 😃 then it is meaningless” demonstrates the panic some of you feel at any success in the war on terror. > > May that panic continue and increase. > > Regards, > Shodan Excuse me but what have we “flip-flopped” on? I’ve always said that victory in Iraq is meaningless. Winning doesn’t excuse anything. We still had no right to ever invade that country. If someone tells me they’re going to attack an old man on the street I don’t consider it a defense for them to say “Don’t worry, I’ll win the fight.” Winning is completely beside the point. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/98 "2006-06-08T20:38:37Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Almost. He was hiding out in the Kurdish region, fighting against the Kurds, so I don’t think he was hiding out “with the Kurds”. > Intersting speculation. Not speculation, at least not entirely. My memory was a little spotty (I got it wrong which side of the Kurds he was on), but I wasn’t wrong that Bush passed on multiple chances to wipe out Zarqawi’s camp before the war. From [MSNBC](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4431601/): > [@](#): > > But NBC News has learned that long before the war the Bush administration had several chances to wipe out his terrorist operation and perhaps kill Zarqawi himself — but never pulled the trigger. > > \ [Article describes three separate opprtunities passed on by Bush] \ > > Military officials insist their case for attacking Zarqawi’s operation was airtight, **but the administration feared destroying the terrorist camp in Iraq could undercut its case for war against Saddam**. I remember reading about this stuff at the time. There were definitely some inside allegations that the WH passed on these opprtunities because they wanted to be able to claim that AQ had a presence in Iraq when they were making their case for an invasion. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/99 "2006-06-08T20:40:52Z")
> [@saoirse](#): > > That’s how I understood it, except for the part about not getting him for PR purposes. Zarqawi was hostile to Saddam, with the Ansar al-Islam movement in Kurdistan. If the Administration had killed him, they could have said that there were more of them in Iraq, after all. I’ll agree Bush is deceitful and incompetent, but I can’t believe he’d pass on a target like Zarqawi except out of ignorance. See my link above. He passed on three. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2006, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862/100 "2006-06-08T20:47:16Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > “I don’t know where [bin Laden] is. Nor — you know, I just don’t spend that much time on him really, to be honest with you. I … I truly am not that concerned about him.” > – George W. Bush, [March 2002](http://archives.cnn.com/2002/ALLPOLITICS/03/13/bush.transcript/) I know that’s the way your favorite left-wing blogs like to quote that part of the speech. Why not actually quote the whole context: > [@](#): > > Q Mr. President, in your speeches now you rarely talk or mention Osama bin Laden. Why is that? Also, can you tell the American people if you have any more information, if you know if he is dead or alive? Final part – deep in your heart, don’t you truly believe that until you find out if he is dead or alive, you won’t really eliminate the threat of – > > THE PRESIDENT: Deep in my heart I know the man is on the run, if he’s alive at all. Who knows if he’s hiding in some cave or not; we haven’t heard from him in a long time. And the idea of focusing on one person is – really indicates to me people don’t understand the scope of the mission. > > Terror is bigger than one person. And he’s just – he’s a person who’s now been marginalized. His network, his host government has been destroyed. He’s the ultimate parasite who found weakness, exploited it, and met his match. He is – as I mentioned in my speech, I do mention the fact that this is a fellow who is willing to commit youngsters to their death and he, himself, tries to hide – if, in fact, he’s hiding at all. > > So I don’t know where he is. You know, I just don’t spend that much time on him, Kelly, to be honest with you. I’m more worried about making sure that our soldiers are well-supplied; that the strategy is clear; that the coalition is strong; that when we find enemy bunched up like we did in Shahikot Mountains, that the military has all the support it needs to go in and do the job, which they did. > > And there will be other battles in Afghanistan. There’s going to be other struggles like Shahikot, and I’m just as confident about the outcome of those future battles as I was about Shahikot, where our soldiers are performing brilliantly. We’re tough, we’re strong, they’re well-equipped. We have a good strategy. We are showing the world we know how to fight a guerrilla war with conventional means. > > Q But don’t you believe that the threat that bin Laden posed won’t truly be eliminated until he is found either dead or alive? > > THE PRESIDENT: Well, as I say, we haven’t heard much from him. And I wouldn’t necessarily say he’s at the center of any command structure. And, again, I don’t know where he is. I – I’ll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him. I know he is on the run. I was concerned about him, when he had taken over a country. I was concerned about the fact that he was basically running Afghanistan and calling the shots for the Taliban. > > But once we set out the policy and started executing the plan, he became – we shoved him out more and more on the margins. He has no place to train his al Qaeda killers anymore. And if we – excuse me for a minute – and if we find a training camp, we’ll take care of it. Either we will or our friends will. That’s one of the things – part of the new phase that’s becoming apparent to the American people is that we’re working closely with other governments to deny sanctuary, or training, or a place to hide, or a place to raise money. > > And we’ve got more work to do. See, that’s the thing the American people have got to understand, that we’ve only been at this six months. This is going to be a long struggle. I keep saying that; I don’t know whether you all believe me or not. But time will show you that it’s going to take a long time to achieve this objective. And I can assure you, I am not going to blink. And I’m not going to get tired. Because I know what is at stake. And history has called us to action, and I am going to seize this moment for the good of the world, for peace in the world and for freedom. Emphasis added, to show how this quote has been chopped up, presumably for added effect. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-killed-will-it-make-a-difference/359862.md?page=6)