# Zarqawi-Lite: AQ in Iraq's #2 guy captured **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [September 5, 2006, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460 "2006-09-05T01:41:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/1 "2006-09-05T01:41:38Z")
[WaPo story](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/03/AR2006090300196.html) > [@](#): > > BAGHDAD, Sept. 3 – U.S. and Iraqi forces have captured a top al-Qaeda leader who ordered the bombing of a Shiite Muslim shrine in Samarra that triggered a wave of ferocious sectarian killings, Iraqi officials said Sunday. > > The arrest of Hamed Jumaa Faris Juri al-Saeidi, described by Iraqi officials as the No. 2 leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, was the latest in a series of blows to the Sunni Arab insurgent group, believed responsible for numerous suicide attacks on civilians and other deadly violence. The group’s former leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, was killed by U.S. forces in June and replaced by Abu Ayyub al-Masri. > > “The al-Qaeda organization in Iraq has been seriously weakened and is now suffering from a leadership vacuum,” Iraq’s national security adviser, Mowaffak al-Rubaie, said at a news conference. Twenty senior al-Qaeda in Iraq fighters have been captured or killed based on information from Saeidi since his arrest within the past few weeks, Iraqi officials said. I’d been thinking anyway that it was time to ask the question, “So, how much difference did Zarqawi’s death make, anyway?” since he’s been dead for three months now, and the violence continues to spiral out of control. And now we have the obvious followup question, “Why should anyone expect this turkey’s capture to make any more difference than Zarqawi’s death did - that is, none whatsoever?” And of course, “Will anyone in the press take advantage of this opening to ask Bush, Cheney, or Rummy why, if Zarqawi was such a big deal, things have continued to go down the toilet in Iraq in the three months since his death?” Not holdin’ my breath on that one. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Cid\_Viscoso](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/41988e/32.png) [@El\_Cid\_Viscoso](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Cid_Viscoso)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/2 "2006-09-05T01:47:13Z")
Al Qaeda is baseless, therefore let us think this achievement is base and wither our victory in’t. - Duke of Rumsfield ---
**Author:** ![NurseCarmen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5daacb/32.png) [@NurseCarmen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NurseCarmen)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/3 "2006-09-05T01:49:14Z")
It’s amazing how many #2s AQ has. ---
**Author:** ![Dunderman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecb155/32.png) [@Dunderman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dunderman)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/4 "2006-09-05T01:56:19Z")
[QUOTE=NurseCarmen] It’s amazing how many #2s AQ has. [/QUOTE] My thought exactly. “Top al-Qaeda people” keep getting whacked. You’d think they’d start running out of bottom people to promote. They probably would, if they existed. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/5 "2006-09-05T02:01:59Z")
[QUOTE=NurseCarmen] It’s amazing how many #2s AQ has. [/QUOTE] It’s the attack of the clones! ---
**Author:** ![Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tapioca_Dextrin)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/6 "2006-09-05T02:12:21Z")
Personally, I expect the people of Iraq to express themselves using the traditional Arab celebration of a rose petal parade :dubious: [sub]NB my real name is Donald Rumsfeld and/or Dick Cheney[/sub] ---
**Author:** ![Scylla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@Scylla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scylla)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/7 "2006-09-05T02:17:37Z")
RTF: I don’t understand. They shouldn’t have caught him? This is bad? It’s not good news? Is it just not good news for you that we have a success that you need to demean it? I really don’t want to ask why do you hate America, and why are you rooting for Al Quaeda and why do you want things to go bad for us over there but your OP makes these look like valid questions. So let me just ask for the record: 1. Is it a good thing that we got this guy? 2. Is it a success or a failure that we got him? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/8 "2006-09-05T02:17:56Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] [WaPo story](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/03/AR2006090300196.html) I’d been thinking anyway that it was time to ask the question, “So, how much difference did Zarqawi’s death make, anyway?” since he’s been dead for three months now, and the violence continues to spiral out of control. And now we have the obvious followup question, “Why should anyone expect this turkey’s capture to make any more difference than Zarqawi’s death did - that is, none whatsoever?” And of course, “Will anyone in the press take advantage of this opening to ask Bush, Cheney, or Rummy why, if Zarqawi was such a big deal, things have continued to go down the toilet in Iraq in the three months since his death?” Not holdin’ my breath on that one. [/QUOTE] So, what exactly are you Pitting here? Would you rather the guy was not caught? I think even the administration will admint that the foreign jihadists and al Qaeda types are behind only a fraction of the violence in Iraq-- most of it is Iraqi Sunnis kiling Iraqi Shiites and vice versa. ---
**Author:** ![Revenant\_Threshold](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f1d935/32.png) [@Revenant\_Threshold](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Revenant_Threshold)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/9 "2006-09-05T02:27:44Z")
[QUOTE=Scylla] So let me just ask for the record: 1. Is it a good thing that we got this guy? 2. Is it a success or a failure that we got him? [/QUOTE] Your two questions appear to be the same question cunningly disguised. Anyway, yep, it’s a good thing we got him (assuming the next person in the “chain of command” isn’t even worse, of course). The problem is; how good? Will this have a large effect on al Quaeda? Small? These are important questions to ask, for two reasons that I can think off the top of my head; firstly the more important thing is whether killing off seconds-in-command is an effective military policy; the funds used in intelligence to find out where these guys are and in the hardware (plus, of course, personnel) in the actual event might be better used somewhere else. The second reason would be that we need to assess the claims of \*other \* people that this was effective. If, for example, the U.S. Army, or the press, or the administration, or respected thinkers etc. were to claim this as a fantastic coup, likely we’re going to think “Well, excellent. Keep at it!”. If, however, we look into it and find that reality doesn’t appear to match their claims, then not only should we question the intelligence of these people but also their honesty. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/10 "2006-09-05T02:31:58Z")
[QUOTE=Scylla] So let me just ask for the record: 1. Is it a good thing that we got this guy? 2. Is it a success or a failure that we got him? [/QUOTE] Trivially good at best, and meaningless. Assuming he really is a member of Al Qaeda, and even assuming he’s high up, he’ll be replaced immediately. Besides, most of the violence is by the locals, not Al Qaeda. However, I _will_ say that it’s good that they arrested him, instead of bombing the neighborhood to rubble and claiming they got him. [QUOTE=John Mace] So, what exactly are you Pitting here? Would you rather the guy was not caught? I think even the administration will admint that the foreign jihadists and al Qaeda types are behind only a fraction of the violence in Iraq-- most of it is Iraqi Sunnis kiling Iraqi Shiites and vice versa. [/QUOTE] Haven’t they been claiming that the insurgency is mostly foreign and Saddam loyalists ? ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/11 "2006-09-05T02:35:54Z")
> [@Scylla](#): > > I don’t understand. They shouldn’t have caught him? This is bad? It’s not good news? I think the OP’s point is that it’s being oversold as more important news than it actually is. The press keeps announcing that we’ve caught al-Qaeda’s No. 2 operative and that it’s struck a crippling blow at their organization. Then a few months later, lo and behold, they catch another one. Meanwhile the conflict in Iraq doesn’t improve. Yes, of course it’s a good thing that al-Qaeda operatives get caught. But it keeps being presented in the media as one of those “turning points”— **now** we’re really striking at the heart of the terror network! The enemy is reeling! They’re in the last throes!—and then a little later, it happens all over again. I think [The Onion](http://www.theonion.com/content/node/44900) said it best: > [@](#): > > Eighty Percent Of Al-Qaeda No. 2s Now Dead > > February 1, 2006 | Issue 42•05 > > WASHINGTON, DC—The Pentagon announced Monday that 80 percent of Osama bin Laden’s seconds-in-command have been eliminated. “Nearly 1,600 al-Qaeda leaders ranked number two have been wiped out,” Lt. Col. Mark Allison said. “That leaves only 400 of Osama bin Laden’s right-hand men in the organization.” Following the apparent failure to kill bin Laden’s No. 2 man Ayman al-Zawahri in a missile strike on a Pakistani border town on Jan. 13, American forces intensified the search for al-Qaeda second-in-command Ahmed Al-Zahnami, or, failing that, No. 2 man Amman al-Zaharani, or No. 2 man Ahmed al-Zafarani. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/12 "2006-09-05T02:40:35Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] Not holdin’ my breath on that one. [/QUOTE] Nope, there’s no reason to. It’s definitely a coup for Mouwafak-al-Rubaie, Iraq’s national security advisor, but hardly a corner turning event worth jumping up and down about. Frankly, with [Sistani withdrawing from politics](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/09/03/wirq03.xml), and a [coalition of 300 tribal leaders calling for the release of Saddam, or else](http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2003241574_iraq03.html), just in the past few days, I’m surprised that the capture of this al Qaeda dude even made the news. ---
**Author:** ![Scylla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@Scylla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scylla)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/13 "2006-09-05T02:45:35Z")
[QUOTE=Revenant Threshold] Your two questions appear to be the same question cunningly disguised. [/quote] Or perhaps stupidly redundant, but if you wanna go with “cunning” I’m game. > [@](#): > > Anyway, yep, it’s a good thing we got him (assuming the next person in the “chain of command” isn’t even worse, of course). I agree. > [@](#): > > The problem is; how good? Will this have a large effect on al Quaeda? Small? These are important questions to ask, for two reasons that I can think off the top of my head; firstly the more important thing is whether killing off seconds-in-command is an effective military policy; the funds used in intelligence to find out where these guys are and in the hardware (plus, of course, personnel) in the actual event might be better used somewhere else. I think those are good questions to ask, and I agree as well. I notice that RTF **didn’t** ask any of those question or make any of those statements. > [@](#): > > The second reason would be that we need to assess the claims of \*other \* people that this was effective. If, for example, the U.S. Army, or the press, or the administration, or respected thinkers etc. were to claim this as a fantastic coup, likely we’re going to think “Well, excellent. Keep at it!”. If, however, we look into it and find that reality doesn’t appear to match their claims, then not only should we question the intelligence of these people but also their honesty. I would agree with this, too. If this is RTF means than perhaps he should ask these questions rather than just jumping ugly on the capture announcement. ---
**Author:** ![Revenant\_Threshold](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f1d935/32.png) [@Revenant\_Threshold](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Revenant_Threshold)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/14 "2006-09-05T02:55:24Z")
[QUOTE=Scylla] I think those are good questions to ask, and I agree as well. I notice that RTF **didn’t** ask any of those question or make any of those statements. [/QUOTE] Er, what? **RTF** ’s first paragraph questions whether or not it made a huge difference - not whether it was a good thing or not, but to what extent was this a success. The second one says the same thing, but it coloured by his opinion that Zarquawi’s death made little difference. Not all that unreasonable a point to make. And lastly, he questions members of the administration as to why their opinions are what they are (and questions the press’s ability to do their job). He then ends with a note suggesting he doesn’t think this last question will be answered, suggesting that the other two he posed might be. > [@](#): > > If this is RTF means than perhaps he should ask these questions rather than just jumping ugly on the capture announcement. **RTF** asked both of those questions, and expected answers. He didn’t say that this was the horrible failure that you seem to be implying he did. I really don’t see where you’re getting this from. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/15 "2006-09-05T02:58:33Z")
[QUOTE=Revenant Threshold] **RTF** asked both of those questions, and expected answers. He didn’t say that this was the horrible failure that you seem to be implying he did. I really don’t see where you’re getting this from. [/QUOTE] Anal dispersion. ---
**Author:** ![bannerrefugee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/c68b51/32.png) [@bannerrefugee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bannerrefugee)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/16 "2006-09-05T03:05:12Z")
His capture is irrelevant. Iraq was a useless adventure. Why isn’t this obvious? ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/17 "2006-09-05T03:50:36Z")
Just FTR, the number two guy in Al-Qaeda is [Ayman al-Zawahiri](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayman_Al-Zawahiri). He was AQ’s number 2 guy before 9/11, and he will be AQ’s number 2 probably until such time as he dies or is captured or retires. (In fact, I’ve read in some places that he’s becoming more important in the operation than OBL, but I’m not sure about that.) If this guy is who they say he is he is the #2 guy of Al Qaeda _in Iraq_, a separate organization. A bad but not too bad analogy would be to compare Dick Cheney with Cruz Bustamante. (Lt. gov. of California.) ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/18 "2006-09-05T04:55:00Z")
Interesting debate technique, Scylla. RTF asked three questions in the OP: “So, how much difference did Zarqawi’s death make, anyway?” “Why should anyone expect this turkey’s capture to make any more difference than Zarqawi’s death did - that is, none whatsoever?” “Will anyone in the press take advantage of this opening to ask Bush, Cheney, or Rummy why, if Zarqawi was such a big deal, things have continued to go down the toilet in Iraq in the three months since his death?” Interesting questions without a significant partisan bias. But I guess you either didn’t have or didn’t like the answers for those questions. So you decided to invent some new questions and pretend that RTF asked them instead: “They shouldn’t have caught him? This is bad? It’s not good news?” “Is it just not good news for you that we have a success that you need to demean it?” “Is it a good thing that we got this guy?” “Is it a success or a failure that we got him?” So, in keeping with this technique, I think it’s clear from your post that you want to have everyone who opposes you rounded up and put to death. To which I have some questions of my own: “That’s the same kind of thing Stalin did. Do you really think Stalin is an appropriate role model?” “Stalin used to beat his wife. When did you stop beating your wife?” “As a conservative, do you prefer being compared to a Nazi instead of a Commie?” “If you are going to be compared to a Commie, which one would you most like to be compared to? Personally, I’d pick Leonid Brezhnev - he at least had good hair.” ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/19 "2006-09-05T05:10:53Z")
[QUOTE=Der Trihs] Haven’t they been claiming that the insurgency is mostly foreign and Saddam loyalists ? [/QUOTE] Yes. foreign fighters and Saddam loyalists, not just foreign fighters. > [@Kimstu](#): > > I think the OP’s point is that it’s being oversold as more important news than it actually is. The press keeps announcing that we’ve caught al-Qaeda’s No. 2 operative and that it’s struck a crippling blow at their organization. What press are you reading? From the Washington Post: > [@](#): > > [Insurgent Leader Al-Zarqawi Killed in Iraq](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/08/AR2006060800114.html) > > His killing is the most significant public triumph for the U.S.-led military coalition in Iraq since the 2003 capture of Saddam Hussein, although analysts warned that Zarqawi’s death may not stem the tide of insurgency and violence any more than Hussein’s capture did. Copying Osama bin Laden’s leadership strategy, Zarqawi set up numerous semi-autonomous terrorist cells across Iraq, many of which could continue operating after his death. Form the [New York Times:](http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/z/abu_musab_al_zarqawi/) > [@](#): > > Commanders at the Pentagon predict that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s death will cause an upsurge in violence in Iraq in coming days, The Times’s Thom Shanker reports. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2006, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460/20 "2006-09-05T05:24:27Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] And of course, “Will anyone in the press take advantage of this opening to ask Bush, Cheney, or Rummy why, if Zarqawi was such a big deal, things have continued to go down the toilet in Iraq in the three months since his death?” [/QUOTE] Is this close enough? > [@](#): > > [Press Conference of the President](http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/06/20060614.html) > > Q Good morning, Mr. President. You seem quite energized by this moment of opportunity. > > THE PRESIDENT: No, I’m just fighting off fatigue. > > Q I know the feeling, sir. I’m wondering, though, if there are ever moments of doubt about your decisions and strategy in Iraq. Do you ever have a moment where you feel this just won’t end well, that no matter how many Zarqawis are killed, the insurgents are just never going to give up? Emphasis added. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zarqawi-lite-aq-in-iraqs-2-guy-captured/371460.md?page=2)