# Zelenskyy; Russia plans to attack NATO in 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [February 14, 2025, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313 "2025-02-14T15:42:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Si\_Amigo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/si_amigo/32/2877_2.png) [@Si\_Amigo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Si_Amigo)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/23 "2025-02-14T18:25:32Z")
Assuming the US leaves NATO completely then its up to them to let the Ukraine or anybody else to join NATO. This might actually be a good thing for Europe, as they are not poor or by any means a third rate power. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/24 "2025-02-14T18:42:09Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Ah yes, the Peter Zeihan prediction that Russians couldn’t possibly figure out how to get oil out of the ground. Zeihan has been so wrong about so many things now that it’s almost funny. Not just Peter Zeihan (and I share your skepticism of his broadly sweeping claims with a paucity of citation); the Russians have been importing foreign technology and expertise since before the fall of the Soviet Union to sustain their petroleum industry and are highly dependent upon this to keep it running it because their ability to internally develop expertise has dropped sharply in the last few decades as the oligarchs running these industries have not invested and developed their interests. And even of the petroleum they can extract most of it has to be sold as crude oil at pennies on the dollar because Russia lacks modern or expansive refinery capabilities. Regardless, the demographics of Russia are plain; even the official statistics show them as being well below replacement levels, and independent analysis shows Russia to be at the absolutely bottom in terms of negative population growth. Putin’s incursion into Ukraine was plainly an effort to demonstrate that this is not a problem (and in my opinion mostly to bolster up his appearance of strength and appeal to national pride within Russia), and the catastrophic failures of what was supposed to be a couple weeks of operation to capture Kyiv and install a puppet government made a mockery of that. > [@Si\_Amigo](#): > > Assuming the US leaves NATO completely then its up to them to let the Ukraine or anybody else to join NATO. This might actually be a good thing for Europe, as they are not poor or by any means a third rate power. This is assuming that the alliance holds together, which is not at all assured. Depending upon political developments in Germany, France, Turkey, Poland, et cetera, the fractious nationalism that brought Europe into the First World War has a real potential to be realized yet again. This still won’t make Russia more powerful or ultimately sustainable but it will be relatively less weak compared to a Europe unified under NATO. The United States has always sustained NATO (mostly for its own interests, which post-WWII included a stable Europe to buy agricultural goods and oppose Soviet expansionism, and post-Cold War as an investment hub and to maintain American global hegemony) and because it was not of Europe it could mediate intra-continental political disputes and if necessary throw its economic might into suppressing discontent, but now that the US is signaling a desire to turn their back on the alliance it is really the question of who will step up and take the reigns to ensure that there isn’t a leadership vacuum or lack of direction. France? Germany? Poland? Will other NATO members all fall in line behind one of them? I don’t know, and I don’t think anyone else can provide assurance that NATO will endure without an American overwatch. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/25 "2025-02-14T19:16:54Z")
Is it out of the question that the US would even provide material support _to Russia?_ I mean, it’s pretty clear that Russia has successfully captured RW media in the US, and it’s also pretty clear that whatever memes people in the MAGAverse believe now become policy. The flowchart of propaganda to policy has only two boxes. What guardrail prevents even that from happening? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/26 "2025-02-14T19:18:07Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > Is it out of the question that the US would even provide material support _to Russia?_ Not at all. They likely will. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/27 "2025-02-14T19:22:30Z")
My understanding was Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/28 "2025-02-14T19:30:08Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > Is it out of the question that the US would even provide material support _to Russia?_ “Drill, baby, drill!” isn’t just applicable to the Arctic Wildlife Refuge. If we can get some of that sweet Siberian oil in exchange for advanced American weapon systems at a favorable exchange, why not? What has Zelenskyy done for us lately, anyway? I’ll show you some _quid pro quo_! Stranger ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/29 "2025-02-14T19:33:54Z")
> [@DavidNRockies](#): > > What could Putin _possibly_ gain from invading another country? As close as possible to rolling back what has happened since 1989. If not necessarily absorbing the Baltics into Russia or reviving the Warsaw Pact, then at least detaching as many as possible of the former Soviet satellites from NATO into a cordon sanitaire. ---
**Author:** ![Chad\_Sudan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chad_sudan/32/4509_2.png) [@Chad\_Sudan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chad_Sudan)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/30 "2025-02-14T19:46:36Z")
It seems evident that a) the US no longer wants to defend or support Ukraine b) the US no longer wants to honor its Article 5 commitment to assist NATO members who are under attack As the US has become unreliable, European states need to decide among themselves how committed they are to Ukrainian security and to the doctrine of mutual defense. If Europe cannot present enough of a united front against Putin, would he be more inclined to push further west into free Ukraine, or would he instead attack the Baltic States\*? (\*where I live) Ukraine is a higher priority for Putin. And the Baltic States, unlike Ukraine, are NATO members. However, if other NATO members did not provide direct assistance, the Baltics obviously would not have the means to resist a Russian invasion the way Ukraine has. ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/31 "2025-02-14T19:47:26Z")
I feel like some people missed the sarcasm tag (/s) in my post 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/32 "2025-02-14T19:56:24Z")
You may have intended the question as sarcasm but there are plenty of people are making the same statement in askance of the notion that once sated by consolidating Ukraine and deposing Zelenskyy through a window Putin will not try for more, as if he parallels to 1938 Czechoslovakia aren’t clear. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/33 "2025-02-14T20:02:41Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > A prerequisite for this would be Ukraine being forced to concede everything the Russians have taken by force (at least), and finish the war. Which is exactly what Trump has said he’ll do (and is doing) > > After that Putin can heavily fortify the occupied regions and withdraw the majority of troops, lead a few victory parades celebrating the troops and the brave leader who led them to victory over fascism, then start planning the next invasion (probably Baltic states) Right now it’s in Ukraine’s interests to simply stop contesting the war, sign whatever agreement is put in front of them, and then abrogate that agreement when Russia invades the Baltics or wherever. Peace deals with Russia are worthless and temporary. Only a fool would consider actually being bound by them. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/34 "2025-02-14T20:16:44Z")
> [@Chad\_Sudan](#): > > As the US has become unreliable, European states need to decide among themselves how committed they are to Ukrainian security and to the doctrine of mutual defense. Given that the United States is an unreliable ally at best, and at worst might aid Russia, it’s probably for the best that Europe forms a new defensive coalition for their mutual defense. I can’t help but think NATO is pretty much dead as far as the United States is concerned. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/35 "2025-02-14T20:21:18Z")
> [@DavidNRockies](#): > > Here’s what I don’t understand. If Trump and Hegseth have already basically said that they’ll _begin_ bargaining with Putin from a position that: > > - Putin gets to keep any Ukrainian land already illegally taken, _and_ > - That Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO, then > > What could Putin _possibly_ gain from invading another country? He’d gain another country. He has a unique window of opportunity here. Nobody other than Trump would consider standing by while Russia invades a NATO ally. So Putin will want to take advantage. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/36 "2025-02-14T21:13:10Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > the demographics of Russia are plain… well below replacement levels Almost every country on earth is below replacement levels. Why is that a problem for Russia? It’s only a problem for countries which care about their citizens, and let them vote. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/37 "2025-02-14T21:21:04Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > Given that the United States is an unreliable ally at best, and at worst might aid Russia, it’s probably for the best that Europe forms a new defensive coalition for their mutual defense. I can’t help but think NATO is pretty much dead as far as the United States is concerned. They don’t need to invent anything new out of whole cloth, because the European members of NATO are almost exactly the same as the EU. In the EU but not NATO includes just Austria, Ireland, Malta, and Cyprus, and in NATO but not the EU is Turkey, Norway, UK, Albania, North Macedonia, and Montenegro, several of whom are already applicants to the EU. If NATO falls apart due to the US pulling out, it would be unsurprising to see the EU add a military alliance aspect to the economic. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/38 "2025-02-14T21:31:14Z")
> [@On another topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/1014334/1): > > As much as I support Ukraine and think Trump is an idiot who will destroy the extremely important NATO alliance, Russia couldn’t invade Bhutan at this point. Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are all, IIC NATO, and their military is dinky. Putin wants to bring back the old Russian empire- that includes those three + Ukraine, Belarus, Finland, Poland, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and wait for it… Alaska. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/39 "2025-02-14T21:42:42Z")
he also wanted to take UKR swiftly … and he is still choking on it and lost a part of Russia so there is “ **wanting** ” … and there is “ **canning** ” 😉 ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/40 "2025-02-14T21:47:22Z")
True, but Ukraine had a reasonable military, not so those three dinky states. Not to mention, it is easy to get aid to Ukraine. If Putin gets peace in Ukraine- I predict he will keep crimea- he will turn to those three- or just muscle Belarus into giving in. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/41 "2025-02-14T21:54:05Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > True, but Ukraine had a reasonable military, not so those three dinky states. Not to mention, it is easy to get aid to Ukraine. lets be realistic here: the reason why UKR still stands lies (ha!) not within UKR, but in the support they got from the west (mostly advanced weapon systems to allow them to go beyond the 5 mile front line) … the same holds true - in a more condensed form - for the baltics. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2025, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313/42 "2025-02-14T22:00:55Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Right now it’s in Ukraine’s interests to simply stop contesting the war, sign whatever agreement is put in front of them, and then abrogate that agreement when Russia invades the Baltics or wherever. Any agreement will cripple Ukraine. Russia’s plan is to reinvade later when the time is right. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zelenskyy-russia-plans-to-attack-nato-in-2026/1014313.md?page=3)