# Zogby claims Kerry holds landslide electoral vote margin. WTF? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 26, 2004, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101 "2004-05-26T01:35:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/1 "2004-05-26T01:35:19Z")
From [http://www.politics1.com](http://www.politics1.com), 5/25/04: > [@](#): > > ZOGBY CLAIMS KERRY HOLDS LANDSLIDE ELECTORAL VOTE MARGIN. According to the latest series of Zogby tracking polls [[http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html](http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html)] in the battleground states, Zogby now claims that John Kerry would score a 320-218 electoral vote victory over President Bush if the election were held today. The polls were all conducted within the past week for the Wall Street Journal. Zogby now places the following swing states in the Kerry column: Florida\*, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri\*, Nevada\*, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin. Zogby gives these swing states to Bush: Arkansas, Iowa, Tennessee\*, and West Virginia\*. [Note: An asterisk indicates the lead is within the poll’s margin of error.] Now, here’s where it gets odd: These polls are being conducted entirely online but – Zogby says – are “controlled and weighted” to ensure that the “participants accurately reflects characteristics of the voting population including region, party, age, race, religion and gender.” Zogby claims margins of error in the 3% to 4.2% range – well within the range of traditional polls. Keep in mind that this is all new territory for polling, so it is WAY too soon to tell if there is any reliability in all of this. But still … 320-218 … I’m not sure I buy that wide of a margin. If the President’s approval ratings continue to hover in the low 40s this fall – as nearly all polls currently show – even down-ballot Republicans around the nation could start feeling the painful consequences. **Can** an Internet-based poll be valid? Since it’s limited to people who have Internet-linked computers? ---
**Author:** ![Reeder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c6cbf5/32.png) [@Reeder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Reeder)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/2 "2004-05-26T01:45:50Z")
I can’t speak to the online polls, but Zogby is a well respected polling and public research company. You should realize that not everyone has a phone either. And many just use cell phones which don’t have a public listing yet. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/3 "2004-05-26T02:18:56Z")
Here’s [Zogby.com’s article on this poll.](http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=830) > [@](#): > > Yesterday marked the first public appearance of Zogby Interactive election polling. We conducted a poll of 10,605 likely voters in 16 battleground states. It is not, however, a new service for us. > A number of questions will arise about the feasibility of doing polls over the internet. Interestingly, many of the same questions arose when the polling business moved from face-to-face interviewing to the telephone. Is it a representative sample of the electorate? Are lower income, minority, older, and technologically challenged people sufficiently represented? How can we be sure that the 72 year self-described World War II veteran is not a mischievous14 year old girl? Don’t internet users tend to skew Democrat? Or Republican? Or independent? > Can it really be characterized as probability sampling if every household in the US does not have same chance of being contacted as every other? > > These are all good questions. IMHO, It’s too soon to tell what this type of poll will be good for, if anything. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/4 "2004-05-26T02:30:59Z")
It **is** indeed way too early for this to be considered definitive. But I’ve always had a lot of faith in Zogby’s work over the years. He runs a good service. ---
**Author:** ![SmackFu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/53a042/32.png) [@SmackFu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmackFu)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/5 "2004-05-26T02:47:31Z")
It is interesting how he points out that now polling can’t reach people who have no land line and have moved to cell only. I would guess that’s a group that skews young and democratic. ---
**Author:** ![MrTuffPaws](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f475e1/32.png) [@MrTuffPaws](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrTuffPaws)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/6 "2004-05-26T03:16:23Z")
Didn’t someone once say that 90% of statistics are pulled from someone’s ass? ---
**Author:** ![cmason32](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/51bf81/32.png) [@cmason32](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmason32)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/7 "2004-05-26T03:33:07Z")
> [@MrTuffPaws](#): > > Didn’t someone once say that 90% of statistics are pulled from someone’s ass? I don’t know about that, but 97.4% of all statistics are made up on the spot. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/8 "2004-05-26T03:33:35Z")
Cartman’s. But seriously, folks, here’s how it goes down. Mr. Zogby is entirely correct, and Kerry wins the popular vote and the electoral college hands down, no question. James Baker then reveals documents purporting to prove that John Kerry was born in France, hence, according to the Constitution, ineligible to be President. By this reasoning, he avers, GeeDubya wins by default. The issue goes to the Supreme Court, which, in an historic 5-4 decision… ---
**Author:** ![SSgtBaloo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ac91a4/32.png) [@SSgtBaloo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SSgtBaloo)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/9 "2004-05-26T04:10:22Z")
> [@MrTuffPaws](#): > > Didn’t someone once say that 90% of statistics are pulled from someone’s ass? I’ve heard that, too. Who _is_ that guy? I’ll bet his ass hurts. –SSgtBaloo ---
**Author:** ![blowero](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/41988e/32.png) [@blowero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blowero)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/10 "2004-05-26T05:56:26Z")
> [@](#): > > Zogby gives these swing states to Bush: Arkansas, Iowa, Tennessee\*, and West Virginia\* See what happens when cousins marry… 😉 ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 10:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/11 "2004-05-26T10:36:29Z")
Iowa to Bush? That doesn’t seem right to me. Iowans are a pretty liberal and tolerant lot. In the caucus, they were quite passionate about the number one criteria being the ability to deliver a kick to Bush’s nether regions. Otherwise, I’m cautiously optimistic that this will indeed be a Kerry blowout- unless Iraq heals spontaneously (it won’t) or there is a massive terror attack on Halloween or later. ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 10:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/12 "2004-05-26T10:49:01Z")
12 of those states are within the margin of error for the poll and most of the rest of them are barely above the margin of error. It is only accurate for people in which they could find their e-mail address and a decent amount of personal information which I imagine is significantly smaller than the entire population. I think the only definitive thing that can be taken out of htis poll is that its going to be a pretty close election. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 12:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/13 "2004-05-26T12:36:16Z")
> [@treis](#): > > I think the only definitive thing that can be taken out of this poll is that its going to be a pretty close election. I don’t believe so. When was the last election involving an incumbent elected president that was close? Not Clinton, Bush I, Reagan, Carter, Nixon, Eisenhower, Roosevelt… how far back do we have to go? Re-election campaigns are referendums on the performance of the incumbent- not good news for Bush. ---
**Author:** ![BJMoose](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/5fc32e/32.png) [@BJMoose](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BJMoose)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/14 "2004-05-26T14:29:32Z")
It’s encouraging to here this, but the fact is the fat lady hasn’t even put on her makeup yet. It needs to be pointed out that, in this poll, the lead in seven of the twelve states going to Kerry, and in all four states going to Bush, are within the poll’s margin of error. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/15 "2004-05-26T14:33:02Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I don’t believe so. When was the last election involving an incumbent elected president that was close? Not Clinton, Bush I, Reagan, Carter, Nixon, Eisenhower, Roosevelt… how far back do we have to go? Re-election campaigns are referendums on the performance of the incumbent- not good news for Bush. But this year, we don’t **have** an incumbent elected president. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/16 "2004-05-26T15:56:47Z")
I really, really, really, really hope that Zogby is right. The internet thing worries me but Zogby knows what he’s doing. he’s an extremely scrupulous and methodical statistician and pollster and IIRC he had the most accurate prediction for the 2000 election (he predicted a slight popular edge for Gore but that Nader would hurt him in some borderline states. I’m pretty sure all the pther national polls predicted a popular win for Bush). I’m just way too pessemistic to get my hopes up yet. All of the normal indicators are against Bush. Incumbants who are under 50% on job approval don’t get reelected. A majority of Americans think Iraq has been handled badly. Bush does not have the personal charm or inspirational spark to turn anything around with personality alone. By all rights he should lose but I won’t let myself feel optimistic until he’s officially gone. OBL is still waiting to be “found” after all. ---
**Author:** ![Airblairxxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Airblairxxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airblairxxx)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/17 "2004-05-26T16:22:07Z")
It is now May. The election is in November. It’s WAY too early to divine anything. Fellow liberals, we haven’t won diddly-squat. Conservatives, your side hasn’t lost yet. ---
**Author:** ![New\_Iskander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/db5fbb/32.png) [@New\_Iskander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/New_Iskander)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/18 "2004-05-26T16:29:58Z")
I can’t wait to see how many war protesters will suddenly “stop worrying and learn to love the Bomb”. Go Kerry! ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/19 "2004-05-26T16:32:14Z")
I feel your pain. It’s light years to election time. The ObL thing, I dunno. The Bushiviks have been at such pains to de-emphasize ObL while constructing the image of Saddam as Bad Guy Numero Uno, they may have to rebuild his importance in order to cash in on it. The sorrowful fact is, it ain’t worth it. Our reputation is in the dumpster, innocent people are being hurt and our soldiers getting killed and maimed. In comparison, the gazillion buck we are pissing away seems almost inconsequential. That it took this level of screwing the pooch to awaken America that the Emperor has no flight suit…it wasn’t worth it, not by a long shot. Even assuming Kerry wins, the process of rehabilitating ourselves in the eyes of the world will be long and costly. If I had the choice, by some magic, to make the whole Iraqi mess disappear, with all our soldiers whole and home, and our reputation no worse than it was, and the cost was re-installing GeeDubya…I’d take it. Hell, I survived Nixon, I can survive another four years of Ol’ Puddnhead. Its like amputating a gangrenous limb - it is necessary, it is healthful, the consequences of failure are dire. But there is no joy in it. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2004, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101/20 "2004-05-26T16:45:51Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > I can survive another four years of Ol’ Puddnhead. But isn’t that essentially what many of us said to ourselves 3 and a half years ago. “Yes, that was downright unfair, but he’ll have his ass handed to him in the mid-terms and will be out in 2004.” I feel rather naive for having said that, given the dire state we are in today. Perhaps you mean that given the power to undo catastrophic mistakes like Iraq, you could survive four more years of GW. Even if we could undo Iraq, how could you be confident that we would not find ourselves in 2006 in the midst of some new catastrophic mistake. Would that we all had magic powers. Except Sam Stone. And Brutus. And Shodan. And Bush. And Dick Cheney. I think it would be bad for Grover Norquist to have magic powers too. Hmmm… we better strike Jerry Jones from the magic-powers list also. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/zogby-claims-kerry-holds-landslide-electoral-vote-margin-wtf/247101.md?page=2)