Ultimate fate of Elon's Tesla Roadster

Francis_Vaughan
Fri, 09 Feb 2018 06:15:28 +0000
Factual Questions

Something that I though of in all the discussions about the recent SpaceX launch.

There have a been a few questions about the long term fate of the Roadster. Elon muttered about millions - perhaps billions of years.

However I wonder about that. The orbit is essentially from an apohelion of 2.61 AU to a perihelion of 0.98. Which is of course as expected as the final burn occurred whilst in Earth orbit. So, the orbit brings the Tesla back near the Earth. It seems to me that there is a good chance that the Earth is going to be modifying the Roadster’s orbit, and I wonder if in time either the orbit period will become locked to a multiple of the Earth’s, or if the orbit is more likely to be unstable and the fate of the Roadster is to be ejected from the solar system sooner rather than later. (Which would also be pretty cool.) I guess there is a very small but non-zero chance it hits the Earth or moon within the odd million or so years.

So, any thoughts from those with more than a passing knowledge of orbital mechanics? What might the betting be on the chances of the various fates?

Then again, I will put money on it being on display in the Smithsonian before any worse fate befalls it.

43 posts - 31 participants