Sen. John Edwards Chances of Winning

[Tuckerfan]

So Senator John Edwards has decided to run for President. I'm wondering how many people are going to get him confused with nutjob/conman John Edward and if this will hurt/help his chances of getting the Democratic nomination and then the Presidency of the US.

[Neurotik]

Um...my guess is not many people are going to get the two confused. I seriously doubt it will have any impact on his getting the nomination. And if he does get the nomination, then it certainly won't hurt his chances in the presidency.

John Edwards' main problem is going to be name recognition. While I have no polling available, I believe that he seriously lags behind many of the other runners, notably Daschle, Lieberman and Gephardt. And he's just a freshman senator. That's going to seriously handicap him.

But we'll talk about this again in a year when we have a clearer picture.

[Tuckerfan]

Actually, Neurotik, I work with people dumb enough to be confused by such similar sounding names. I'm too frightened that they might say "Yes" to find out if they're registered to vote.

[Neurotik]

And people wonder why certain people get elected...

[bup]

In a similar vein, if Dick Gephardt is dumb enough to run (he still undecided, right?), it's doomed because he kinda sorta looks like Jimmy Carter.

[Doctor Goo Fee]

Edwards has about the same chance that a moderate, southern governor named Clinton, whom no one had ever heard of, had against a spectacularly popular war-time president named Bush in 1992.

No way Clinton wins against G. Herbert Walker... (yeah, right)
No way Edwards wins against Dubya... (maybe we'll see?)

[ftg]

Note that the process of running for president creates in people's minds the "aura" of being worthy of president (or not). Time and time again, little known senators and govenors have won their party's nomination. And in cases such as Carter and Clinton have won the Big Prize.

My own expectations ahead of time are not at all reliable. I think that goes for most people. I didn't think Bush I had a chance in '88 or could possibly lose in '92. Things change. The economy can turn on you. Running a successful campaign makes people look good.

[Neurotik]

Like I said, let's talk again in a year about this.

[Zebra]

Maybe he can get those dead people to vote for him.

[Oblong]

As a Bush supporter, Edwards scares the dickens out of me.
He's got a tremendous life story.

Speaking of polls, Zogby had Edwards tied for second behind Lieberman for the nod. This was before "Gebhard" announced.