Post your Iraq War scenario here...

[Boyo Jim]

Wednesday (midnight): explosions bloom all over Baghdad. Airstrikes and cruise missile rain down for 24 hours.

Thursday (midnight): US armored vehicles and mechanized infantry cross the Iraqi border. Average distance to travel to Baghdad -- my WAG is 400 miles. Iraqi troops offer no organized resistance.

Monday night: first US troops reach outskirts of Bagdad.

Wednesday night: All major road rail arteries in and around Bagdad under US control.

24 hour pause, during which US leaflets the city, giving directions for safe passage out for civilians and surrendering soldiers.

During this time, Saddam escapes from Baghdad.

Friday morning: US tank unit supported by TV camera crews enter Baghdad, headed toward a Presidential Palace. Re-enactment of the scene of the in Hanoi as tanks smash through the Palace gates, and a soldier races up the stairs to plant an American flag.

President Bush declares war over.

3 months later: headlines note that no major evidence of WMD programs yet found.

6 months later: Saddam located in Iran. US begins preparing for war.

[jk1245]

I think your timelines are pretty close to accurate, cept I think the "first" troops will reach the outskirts of Baghdad shortly (as in a few hours or less) after the start.

I think Saddam will be offed by one of his own, and if not, he surely wouldn't go to Iran. That's the $64k question, isn't it? No country would dare give him shelter, lest they be accused of "harboring fugitives".

If he does manage to escape death at the hand of his own henchmen, I imagine Saddam would like to go out a martyr. I pray he doesn't take Baghdad with him.

[eenerms]

Saddam will not be in Iran no matter what. BTW he isn't welcomed in Saudi Arabia either.

[5 time champ]

You are probably close Boyo Jim

They will find some WMD, even if its just a pair of Saddam's old army boots. Or someone finds a bottle of bleach and a bottle of ammonia in the same buidling. Proof positive of Saddam's infamous chlorine gas program.

But yes, Saddam escapes, to god knows where.

[3trew]

See, now that could be a good thing. He might wind up in Burma or some other place that could use a serious housecleaning but doesn't have the other necessary elements to cause anybody to, y'know, do something about it. If he stayed on the run long enough we could wind up with several nasty dictatorships destroyed incidental to the search.

[Wearia]

I could see the army lucking out and capturing Saddam. Then having no idea what to do with him.

[peepthis]

I think the timeline is far too rushed. The air war will continue to bombard Iraqi defenses for a week at least, before commiting to the risky manuever of sending in ground troops. This, of course, would be the optimal time for Saddam to flee, but as others said he's persona non grata in Iran and Saudi Arabia.

US troops will be surrounding Baghdad in about 2 weeks time after the war starts, I predict. And the bombing won't start til the weekend, at the earliest.

WMD will be found.

[Maera]

Sadam waits until the last second, then announces he will accept exile in France if the French guarantee his safety and immunity. France agrees by arguing it will save Iraqi lives and to tweek Bush (and for a few of the billions Sadam has stashed away). He and his sons live to be old men. We clean up his mess - no war needed.

[don't ask]

My scenario was much like Maera's with the exception that he is already in France staying at Jacque Chirac's place.

[HPL]

Originally posted by Boyo Jim
6 months later: Saddam located in Iran. US begins preparing for war.

Nah. Saddam used chemical weapons on Iran in the 1980's. If they catch him there, they'd likely either give him to the US as a gesture of goodwill, or make the remaining hours of his life extremely miserable.

Problem is, who would actually let him stay with their knowledge? He's secular and most of the middle east is fundementalist. Plus the brownie points a nation would get by throwing him out of a car in front of the US embassy.

[mecaenas]

USA wins war. USA fails to find WMD. US plants evidence of WMD. US writes history.

[Boyo Jim]

Remember, in the first Gilf War, the surviving elements of the Iraqi Air Force escaped to Iran.

But a more likely restatement of this position is:
6 months later: Saddam reported to be in Iran. US begins preparing for war.

[Crusoe]

US forces cross border effectively unopposed after frontline Iraqi resistances disappears due to a combination of massive air and artillery bombardments and mass surrender. Ground forces take only minor casualties en route to major cities, possibly with friendly fire and aircraft losses to SAMs and AAA the greatest cause of death.

Limited local use of chemical weapons by individual Iraqi commanders (most likely through artillery bombardments) causes very few casualties due to (a) general level of preparedness among invading troops, (b) lack of widespread will to use such weapons and (c) damage already caused to delivery means (i.e. airstrikes on artillery units). Does not stop Bush and Blair heavily promoting a "we told you so" line in the press that comes across as crowing more than as a serious political statement.

Urban fighting only significant in Baghdad. Casualty rates increase among infantry units as massive firepower multipliers (air, artillery, armour) cannot be used in an urban environment without large numbers of civilian casualties. Public and press reaction initially muted due to apparent imminent end of hostilities.

Inevitable capitulation. Special forces units either capture or kill Hussein towards the end of the war, or he is killed in an airstrike will attempting to escape prior to this point. If he is captured, I am genuinely uncertain as to whether this would be publicised and Hussein subjected to rigourously observed legal proceedings or whether he would be "disappeared".

During the hostilities no major terrorist attacks occur in the UK or US, but "minor" incidents do occur (e.g. car bombs in cities). Responsibility is assumed by individuals rather than more organised groups. Terrorist attacks do occur with noticeable frequency on Americans and Britons in other Middle Eastern states, and on the perceived assets of the US and UK (embassies, corporate offices, McDonalds and so on).

Future terrorist attacks increase in frequency.

[Tristan]

US kicks the ass.

US takes the names.

Saddam Hussein is found already dead in a palace.

more evidence of WMD are found.

Peacniks and sore losers claim it's planted.


hey, if you can be knee-jerk jingo-istic, so can I.

[Crusoe]

Originally posted by Tristan
hey, if you can be knee-jerk jingo-istic, so can I.

Just out of interest, who was being jingoistic?

[jjimm]

Tristan, check out what jingoism actually means. Nobody's being jingoistic here.

[Tamerlane]

Originally posted by Boyo Jim
Remember, in the first Gilf War, the surviving elements of the Iraqi Air Force escaped to Iran.

Eh, no, I believe they fled to Iran and were promptly impounded. I don't think Iraq ever got any of those planes back, though I'm open to correction on that ( last I remember they were still trying to get some back in the late '90's and getting a cold shoulder ).

I think Crusoe comes pretty close to my thinking on the likliest scenario, possibly excluding the chemical weapons ( which are going to be effectively useless - what Iraq has been demonstrated to have is not that useful against modern troops ) and the minor terrorism ( may happen, may not ).

- Tamerlane

[Tristan]

Well I feel stupid.

What's the word when folks are being all cynical and assumptive about something based on conjecture and imagination?

[Optihut]

originally posted by Tristan
What's the word when folks are being all cynical and assumptive about something based on conjecture and imagination?

I'd say it's called "experience"

[Paul in Qatar]

They will gas us.

[Futile Gesture]

A lot of short-term thinking evident here. Let's look at the big picture here;-

- War over in a matter of weeks. Let's not pretend that the Iraqi army is going to put up any significant resistance.
- Significant numbers of deaths among poorly trained, coerced Iraqi soldiers.
- Iraqi left a shattered crater.
- Interim government installed by US authority
- Lots of lovely fat contracts awarded to US construction, oil companies and buddies of Dubya.
- Some years down the line democratic elections held, consisting of politicians firmly in afore mentioned companies' pockets.
- Rest of Middle East extremely annoyed at US for another 100 years.
- Further terrorism and war assured everywhere as moderate and Western-friendly govts. in the region destablized and/or overthrown.
- Rest of world not overly pleased either as US coins in the profits and increase control on world's oil supplies.

[Tristan]

Another long range alternative...

-War over in weeks.
-US Military administration oversees the reconstruction and rebuilding of Iraq. Special care is given to make sure backdoor dealings are at a minimum.
-Iraqi poeple eventually vote in their own moderate government.
-Peace and economic prosperity in Iraq as a Western style Democracy is shown to be an effective government.
-Iraq becomes peace broker in Middle East, using significant economic power (for the region) to work towards peace.


on a side note:

- Anti American interests don't care, and continue to hate America based on shallow excuses.
-US Peaceniks deride us gov't for "Nation Building" when people are "starving at home".... as if that can be fixed.

[Smeghead]

It won't be the end of the world. Nor will it solve all of the world's problems. After it's over, life will continue pretty much the same for most people.

[TVeblen]

I think Crusoe summed it up pretty well. Only after the overt war phase comes a long, very long, occupation phase. Melding the rival factions into a government that's accepted internally or by other Arab states proves impossible. The "New Iraq" becomes a lightning rod for MENA resentment over perceived western/foreign imperialism. Terrorism increases, locally and abroad.

[Shodan]

Iraq war over in six weeks. Peaceniks claim war was never necessary, and call for impeachment of Bush.

Saddam killed by his own palace guard. Peaceniks claim cold blooded murder by US troops, and call for impeachment of Bush.

Oil wells set ablaze by retreating Iraqi forces. Peaceniks claim this would never have happened without invasion, and call for impeachment of Bush.

Iraqi civilians overwhelm US aid stations after troops surrender en masse. Peaceniks claim this was deliberately engineered to cause starvation in Iraq, and call for impeachment of Bush.

Evidence of illegal missiles is discovered. Peaceniks claim these are not really weapons of mass destruction, claim war was unnecessary, and call for impeachment of Bush.

Evidence of chemical warfare plants is uncovered. Peaceniks claim these are really innocent fertilizer plants, and call for impeachment of Bush.

Evidence of bio-warfare plants is uncovered. Peaceniks claim these are really medical research plants, and call for impeachment of Bush.

Heavens open up. God Almighty returns to earth, and issues a statement that Saddam was attempting to acquire weapons of mass destruction, and that the war with Iraq was morally necessary, and that He informed Bush so in a vision from heaven. Peaceniks claim that this is a violation of the separation of church and state, and call for the impeachment of Bush.

Regards,
Shodan

[PatrickM]

Originally posted by TVeblen
I think Crusoe summed it up pretty well. Only after the overt war phase comes a long, very long, occupation phase. Melding the rival factions into a government that's accepted internally or by other Arab states proves impossible. The "New Iraq" becomes a lightning rod for MENA resentment over perceived western/foreign imperialism. Terrorism increases, locally and abroad.

Forgive me, TVeblen, but what's "MENA"? Resentment, I understand.

[Gatopescado]

Can't type, drinking.

_______________
Fagjunk Theology: Not just for sodomite propagandists anymore.

[Tamerlane]

Originally posted by PatrickM
Forgive me, TVeblen, but what's "MENA"? Resentment, I understand.

Middle East/North Africa

It makes for more historically and politically proper grouping than just Middle East alone.

- Tamerlane

[Tristan]

For what it's worth, agree with you or no, Shodan just made me do a spit take.

You funny bastard.

[Crusoe]

It would have been nice if we could have avoided mischaracterising the positions of both the anti-war and pro-war (or at least, "no alternative to war") camps, but apparently that's not possible.

[Jimson Jim]

Warning- rather long.

This war is being fought with videotape as much as by bullets. Many, many units have embedded journalists.

US/Coalition Military will continue the tightening the noose strategy around Baghdad. Out lying Iraqi troops give up in droves, lots of good footage of humane treatment of surrendered forces. Hard line troops put up resistance in Baghdad. Chemical weapons will not be used but chemical artillery shells will be found in abundance by Coalition forces. More footage shown and reshown on CNN.

Once in Baghdad house to house fighting will be necessary in some but not all areas. Hostile forces will mix in with feeling civilians to fire at Coalition forces from the crowds. This in an attempt to get live news footage of Coalition forces firing into crowds of innocents. Some soldiers will fire into crowds. This will result in some innocent Iraqi civilians being shot or shelled. Iraqi forces will also occupy buildings filled with non-combatants in attempt to avoid being bombed or shelled. Coalition forces will be forced to empty these building room by room at a high body count. More news footage will result. Ultimately the invasion will succeed in taking Iraq.

I don’t know if the Invasion will succeed in legitimizing itself. It will totally depend on the conduct of the Coalition forces. If they are professional and if their commanders are willing to sacrifice the safety and lives of Coalition forces for the lives and safety of the Iraqi citizens. Pictures of Coalition servicemen bleeding and dying while sheltering civilians from indiscriminate Iraqi military rounds or shells may well turn the tide of non-Muslim public opinion. I think the most destabilizing time will come some months after the invasion is complete.

The UN will supply humanitarian aid and the US will begin the Rebuilding phase. While it won’t be a blatant take over of all Iraqi oil industry, the US firms will gain a substantial ownership of the soon to be privatized Iraqi National Oil Company. The interim government will start to implement democratic/capitalistic reforms. This government will be weak and lack popular support.

During this initial period, partisan infighting may begin between the two major Muslim groups in south and central Iraq as well as the Kurds in the North. The Kurds will likely demand an independent state. This will alarm Turkey, which may look to occupy Kurdish lands. All the while activist, agents and provocateurs from interested Muslim and Arab groups and countries will seek to create disruptions. In addition there will be an ever-present threat of attacks on “Peace Keepers” by any and all of the above and others we do not yet know of.

Stability in the region will depend on the interim government’s ability to keep Iraqi from breaking apart like the other states cobbled together in the 20th century. To my knowledge none of those states, which were forcibly created, has survived the democratization process.

[Labtrash]

They already ruined it for me - I was hoping that the first bomb dropped would be one of them big-ass MOAB's - right on top of Saddam's house, but noooooooo...all the hype about testing them, then nada...what a letdown.