The Middle East Prediction Thread

Great Debates
1

Someone else tried one of these, but it was a little unfocused and partisan.

I think it would be interesting for people on both sides of the debate to post their predictions here, so that we can go back in the coming months and years and evaluate why people believed what they did, and how their opinion today correlates with their belief in what’s going to happen when the war comes.

Hopefully, enough people on both sides will answer these questions. Each question can have a ‘caveat’ where you can write your misgivings about your own position, or alternate hypotheses you think are plausible.
Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?
Yes.

How long will the war last?
2 weeks.

Caveat: I believe there is a good chance that the regime will collapse at the start of hostilities, and the war will end in a day or two. On the other hand, if Saddam manages to consolidate his Republican Guard in Baghdad and dig in, it could take a month or more before it’s over. But I think that is unlikely.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?
Less than 500.

Caveat: If Saddam manages to hold together his government and draw his 70,000-strong Republican guard into Baghdad without a coup or surrender, urban warfare could cause that number to increase into the low thousands of American casualties. I think this is unlikely. Also, if Saddam uses Chemical weapons, there could be higher casualties. I believe the number would still be below 1000.

How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?
Somewhere between 5,000 and 50,000, probably on the low side of that.

Caveat: The regime could collapse very early in the fighting, in which case total casualties could be under 1000.

How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?
2000. Far fewer than would have died in the next year by Saddam’s hand if he were still in power.

Caveat: If there is intense urban warfare, that number could go up by a factor of ten. Also, there’s a chance that many, many more will be killed by Saddam, either in scorched-earth destruction, or intentional atrocities in order to harm the world’s opinion of the war.

Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?

Liberators. Perhaps not at first, but as the reality sinks in that Saddam is gone and the Americans won’t let one of his cronies take his place, the people of Iraq will come to really thank the United States for freeing them.

What will Iraq look like a year after the war?
I believe it will be free, and relatively peaceful. While I expect the occasional acts of violence and maybe terror, I believe there will be real progress towards a stable, prosperous country.

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?
A full Japanese-style controlling occupation will last for a year or maybe two. Maybe much less, but not more.

There will still be an American military presence there in ten years, much like there is still an American military presence in Japan, Germany, and South Korea today.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?
A rise in short-term instability as various terror organizations react.

A year from now, the start of real change in the middle east will be happening. The dissident movement in Iran will gain strength. Hizbollah will either be under attack in Lebanon, or gone. Libya will renounce terrorism. The U.S. government will begin to pressure Saudi Arabia, sparking real change there.

Ten years from now, the middle east will be very different. There will be a general agreement that terrorism is counter-productive to the goals of the Arab countries. The U.S. may have to take down another regime before it’s all over - Syria perhaps. But in the end, history will show that the fall of Iraq was the event that started the process of real change for the better in the middle east.

Hopefully, some of you on both sides of the debate will fill in this little questionaire. If you think I missed some important questions, add them.

I think this kind of recording of what our thoughts and fears are before an event of this magnitude could be historically useful. If the SDMB is still around in 20 years, it will be very interesting to go back and read this stuff.

2

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Sam Stone *
**Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?
No.

Caveat: He is wasting too much time talking about going to war and not actually executing it. Getting approval from the U.N. seems more of a P.R. move.

How long will the war last?
A month or so.

Caveat: It may take longer if people are “conscripted” to fight for Saddam. However, it may end quicker if the Kurds act against Saddam.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?
Up to 1,000.

How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?
About 5,000.

Caveat: I have no real basis for this, just a number I’m throwing in here.

How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?
Approximately 20,000.

Caveat: I have a bad feeling Saddam will use A/B/C weapons on his own people in an effort to both make the war look bad and to take out coalition forces, primarily American/British.

Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?

Liberators by the Iraqis but oppressers by opponents of the war, both foreign and domestic.

Caveat: In 20 years, many Iraqi college students will protest American troops stationed in Iraq, claiming the U.S. is practicing imperialism on their soil.

What will Iraq look like a year after the war?
Similar to Afghanistan. The U.S. will have to back-up any pro-Western leader/figurehead while he is targeted for reprisal by any dissident groups or remaining forces of the old regime, including the Kurds. There will be major border conflicts along the Turkish-Iraqi border as the Kurds will attempt to establish their own sovereign nation.

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?
In any scale, at least 10 years, with some permanent bases established by then, primarily near the Kurd-controlled north and possibly near the Iranian border.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?

Multiple terrorist attacks around the world, especially in Israel, the U.K. and U.S. Iran might have a popular uprising; Israel may be poised to take out Hamas and other terrorist groups operating out of the West Bank. As a possible risidual, the E.U. will become more anti-American and our relations with the E.U. will suffer for it.

Democracy will be far from a reality in most of the Middle East within our generation but perhaps a possibility in the next generation.

3

Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?
Yes.

How long will the war last?
3 days.
Day 1, Iraqi forces wake up to see US forces every where, including hundreds already inside Baghdad.
Day 2, limited fighting
Day 3, Iraqi militants surrender. Saddam moves in with Ossama and Mula Omar.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?
Less than 50.

How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?
Somewhere less than 1,000.

How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?
This will depend entirely on Saddam. As with the past few US led skirmishes, there will be a few bombs that land off target. There will be a few daycare/missile silos hit (I’m convinced Saddam has spent 12 years building those). I think most civilians will die as a result of Saddam releasing biological agents. My hope is that his troops will refuse the order (Choucheski?)

Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressors by the Iraqi people?

Liberators by the masses. But there are a lot of people In Iraq doing very well under Saddam, and they will always blame the US for taking away their riches. To them, the US will always be an oppressive regime and nothing will ever change their mind. These will team up with al Qaeda and the like to form an even scary terrorist group.
Until the next military operation at which time Dopers will use this as an example of American Imperialism.
What will Iraq look like a year after the war?
It will look like Israel. Post Saddam Iraq will receive billions of aid for rebuilding and the country will blossom. The Iraqi people are strong, smart and desperate to work, I have all the respect in the world for them. Given the chance, Iraq will be the next super power, imagine if Germany or Japan and the oil resources Iraq does. But it will receive terrorist strikes on a weekly basis.

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?
I could see the next president pulling them after repeated terror attacks.
But most likely forever. The US will pull all troops out of Saudi Arabia and this will be the new US base in the Middle East.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?

My hope is that a strong vibrant Iraq will inspire the countries around them to over throw their oppressors and move towards democracy and capitalism. Eventually leading to a union of Middle Eastern countries. Terrorists will dig in to North African and South East Asian countries and only get stronger but now they will hate Israel, the US, AND Iraq.

What will the world think of the US?

Hatred will only grow. No matter how happy and prosperous the Iraqi people are, the current nay-sayers will use every terror attack as a reason the US should have stayed home. The US will only be more confident of its power and look to clean-house in a few more countries around the world. Oddly, I think this will very closely resemble British or Roman Imperialism, let’s hope our oppressors appreciate us a little more…

What will happen with the Kurds?

No idea.

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Great thread Sam…

Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?
Yes - on the policy I agree entirely. But shit they’ve done a bad job at a PR level - a highshcool newspaper editor could have explained the issues more effectively.

Caveat: The Middle East, circa March 2003, remains a region of feiefdoms, and monarchies, and dictatorships. This is a salutory wake up call for them I suspect - namely, just because you’re a sovereign nation, it doesn’t mean you are permanenty allowed to behave in an uncivilised manner.

How long will the war last?
I’m tipping at least 3 months before Baghdad is “relatively secure”. Somewhat like Kabul in many respects.

Caveat: My greatest fear is that Iraq has cladestinely been importing Arab “freedom fighters” from the surrounding regions for the last 6 months. If so, there could end up being some really awful sniper fests.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?
I truly don’t like to predict that sort of thing. Obviously, in an out and out “head to head” military battle, no one on the planet can even scratch the paint of a US tank before they’ll get obliterated. I suspect that if the Iraqi’s do choose to continue fighting, they’ll employ North Vietnam guerilla tactics designed to wear down the American resolve over time.
Caveat: A successful battle for the “hearts and minds” of the Iraqi people might possibly engender a spirit of “point out the sniper” - it’s hard to say. This particular caveat is really important it seems to me.

How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?
I’d agree with the estimate of being on the lowish side of somewhere between 5,000 and 50,000.

Caveat: The similarites between Iraq and Vietnam are so haunting I can’t help but think… the coalition forces will never know who to trust…

How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?

Best case - less than 200. Worst Case? Upwards of 10,000.

Caveat: This could go sky high if the guerilla situation takes to hiding amongst civilian homes… it could just turn into Somalia - a la Black Hawk Down…

Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?

This is purely determined by how well the USA wins the battle of “hearts and minds”. The very, VERY first thing the US should do is bring in at least a BILLION dollars of modern medical equipment and totally re-stock every hospital in the country.

And then, the USA should embark on a school building program as well. And it should also implement 3 or 4 “totally free speech” newspapers and television stations. Apparently Iraq is rated only 120th or so in terms of “freedom of the press” and this is an important thing.

What will Iraq look like a year after the war?
Best case? Oodles of foreign investment and freedom of speech and a secular government based on the Westminster system. Lots of brand new social infrastructure like schools, universities, and hospitals. (I can’t stress that stuff too highly).

Worst case? So many “residual” Arab freedom fighters are lurking the joint in pure “spoiler roles” that the US and Coalition forces might not ever get the chance to be in the field doing honourable things.

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?
Certainly, I would be suggesting at least 18 months of total military control. And the first thing I’d be doing is TOTALLY banning guns in the country. The only people who should have guns are the Iraqi police, and the coalition forces. The Iraqi Army should TOTALLY be decommissioned during this time. Any person(s) with a gun after a 2 month moratorium will be subject to a legal trial. Gotta minimise those sniper issues pronto.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?

A rise in short-term instability as various terror organizations react. (I’d agree with you there Sam…)

As I’ve said elsewhere, singularly, the true battle is for the hearts and minds of the people. The US really has to look at this as a full on propaganda war - especially AFTER they go into Baghdad. After all, Saddam has had 20 years now of totally media control and manipulation to his advantage. The US has to prove, and pretty quickly too, how well it can get the truth out there, and then, show how a stable, shared representational form of democracy is superior to any other system.

Most importantly, there’s a lot to “undo” in regards to the “brainwashing” that various Imam’s have been up to in the last 30 years as well. I have very little but contempt for those members of Islamic clergy who have hi-jacked that lovely religion and have then cynically abused their positions for political power. Their behaviour has been a blatant form of “colonial conquest” under the camouflage of a “religion” and I can’t stress how highly successful they’ve been. That’s a big generational shift which needs to be implemented.

Still, Iran now has over 65% of it’s population under 25 years of age. And they are highly educated and it’s from THEM that the seeds of change are being forced upon the Iranian powerbrokers. This shows conclusively that it can be done. The US has to build top flight “unbiased” universities - pronto - to achieve the same goal.

5

I think a couple more questions need to be asked:

What will be the effect on the relations betwee the US and European nations, especially those currently opposed to the war?

What will be the effect on the UN?

6

Terrific thread. And I’m wimping out: I lack the expertise to give solid predicitions on this.

Ah, what the heck:
Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?
Sort of. I’m in Pollack’s camp.

How long will the war last?
No idea. Really. Ok, less than 6 months.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?
500-1000. I’m betting on surprises such as a small group of committed Al Qaeda members, a scramble between the US, Turkey and the Kurds to take over certain Northern oil fields or something screwy to boost the total above 500. Let’s hope things don’t totally spin out of control

Will Iraq successfully leak WMDs to terrorists when Saddam’s back is to the wall?
No. This is called, “Wishful thinking”. I really can’t say.

How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?
Beats me.

How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?
Beats me.

Wild-ass prediction (WAP)
Most of the civilian casualties will be caused by Iraqi-Iraqi conflict. (That seemed to be the case in Gulf War I, IIRC, or maybe I’m wrong.)

Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?
Liberators. At first. In some places at least. I predict that the Iraqis will prefer the Americans over the Iraqi exile organization. Ex Pats are usually not that popular. Though there may be a few individual exceptions, of course.

What will Iraq look like a year after the war?
Let’s hope for the best. I’m not even sure it will be one country. I’m not sure that will be a problem. Will Turkish troops be based in Iraq in a year’s time?

Hm. How’s this? While there is some evidence for civil society in Iraq in the 1970s, there is no evidence of any sort of democratic tradition. (Actually, the Kurds are currently a hopeful exception). Hm. Therefore, we can expect fewer than 2 free national elections before 2010.

Iraq will not be rated as “Free” by Human Rights Watch in this decade. (Let’s hope I’m wrong.) They will be rated as “partly free” for part of the 2004-2010 period, though not all of it.

Hm. Iraq will a) have a Federal system,
b) split up
or c) decline into dictatorship rule of some sort.

This means that any strong centralized government will not be democratic. Hey, at least I spelled it out.

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?
Full scale: more than 1 year.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?
Five Years?

Final prediction (99.9% certainty): I will be wrong.

Greetings to the future. May you live WMD-free.

7

Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?
No

How long will the war last?
At least until re-election. If we suceed quickly in Iraq, we will move on to Iran, and any number of countries from there. Sucess will only fuel us to scrutinize our reasons for war less closely as we move on to new horizons and new victories, and we could be at war indefinately.

But I don’t think Iraq will be that easy. People get fierce when faced with occupation by the people they loathe most. I think that we will face guerrilla warfare and it will take well over a year to get things under control. Remember how long Vietnam lasted?

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?
Indefinate war means indefinate casualties. Perhaps more disturbing than war casualties will be the civilians killed in terror attacks spawned by this war and subsequent occupations.

How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?
Lots.

How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?
Surprisingly few at first. But then as guerilla fighting steps up, we’ll pretty much abolish the concept af “civilian” and there will be massive casualties.

Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?
Oppressers. They hate us and we’re taking over their country. I can’t imagine anything more oppressive.

What will Iraq look like a year after the war?
South America- somewhat democratic looking, but still a mess.

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?
We will have a permanent military presence, as well as a long-tern cultural presence (which may not neccesarily be physical occupation) while we make sure that Islamic fundamentalism does not take hold. Under no circumstances will we allow an Islamic government- even a democratically elected one- to take hold.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?
People will be resentful. There will be an anti-American revolution in Saudi Arabia. We will see even more fundamentalism take hold and spread into South Asia and North Africa through grassroots anti-Western movements. Eventually the whole structure will fall apart, like colonialism did, and everyone will be stuck figuring out what to do with the pieces. I picture the Middle East in ten years looking a lot like a somewhat richer and more privatized Africa.

What will be the effect on the relations betwee the US and European nations, especially those currently opposed to the war?
Europe will no longer consider itself the cultural ally of the United State.

What will be the effect on the UN?
The United States will drop out of the UN. It will continue to exist but it will be virtually powerless except in places that the US has no interest.

8

Can I attach a ‘rider’ to the OP?

WHEN will the war start?

I tried starting a thread on this a week ago and it got precisely zero takers.

9

actually, it got 3 takers. and i meant to say ‘may’ I attach…

10

Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?
Yes, basically. Perhaps they ought to have gone to war sooner, assuming the military was ready.

How long will the war last?
Under a week, except for mopping up.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?
“Less than 500” sounds about right.

How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?
I go along with Sam’s 5,000 and 50,000.

How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?
I have no idea. It may be impossible to get agreement on this number. There’s still controversy over how many civilians were killed in Afghanistan.

Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?
Liberators. Reading articles about Iraqis living outside Iraq makes it clear how much Saddam is hated. Many Iraqis also fear the United States. When they see that Saddam is really gone and that the UN is not the monster it’s been portrayed as, they will love us.

What will Iraq look like a year after the war?
This very much depends on the quality of the outside leadership. Also, the meddling of the world community could be a problem. It will be better than it is under Saddam, but I’m not optimistic about a working democracy in the short term.

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?
At least a year or two. OTOH it’s possible that the US will step aside quickly and let the international community provide this leadership.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?
Reduction in terrorism, both short term and long term.

What will be the effect on the relations betwee the US and European nations, especially those currently opposed to the war?
The “American street” will rise up in anger against those European nations that thwarted us, especially France. I think the US will pursue closer agreements with countries that have supported us.

What will be the effect on the UN?
The UN will be regarded as incapable of solving difficult problems. Nobody will expect the UN to solve the problems of nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran, for example.

11

Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?
Yes.

How long will the war last?
1 week - 2 months.

Caveat: “I believe there is a good chance that the regime will collapse at the start of hostilities, and the war will end in a day or two.”- agreed.

I consider that once we have control over all major cities and vital infrastructure, and once we have sufficiently consolidated our positions, then the “war” will be over. There will be tribal conflicts for years to come, as well as random civil protests and a few guerilla extremeist undertakings. Many anti’s will point to that as the “war” never truely being over. If that is your criteria, then the US is still not “liberated” from British rule.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?
Less than 50-500.

Caveat:Onthe 50 side, I would say that a majority of them would be friendly fire casualties. On the 500 side, Saddam will have at least attempted to use WMD on our massed forces and gotten very lucky. The midway 100- 300 non ff and non wmd casualties will be if there is massive urban warfare. I find urban warfare in that scale (non spec-for missions) highly unlikely and a wrose case scenario. And these casualties are strictly non-terrorist related.
How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?
“Somewhere between 5,000 and 50,000, probably on the low side of that.” - I concur.
How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?
500-5000
Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?

Liberators. And yet, occupiers. No true national will ever accept a foriegn military presence, not matter how grateful they are. In the beginning there will be rallies and some guerilla/terrorists attacks on military bases and lone soldiers. From Japan, Saudi Arabia, Germany, S. Korea, Kuwait, to Afghanistan, The US forces will never be completely welcome and accepted as a norm.

What will Iraq look like a year after the war?

I believe that a US installed government would still be very shakey and need to be heavily mmilitarily supported. The Kurds will covet such a position as well as other, not necessarily pro-US political factions that will not have a chance without an attempted coup. The people, on the other hand, will be tremendously better off. Unlike Afghanistan, the US rebuiliding efforts will have something to work with. Their level of education is already superior in the region. Their infrastructure, while neglected and damaged, is suitable to quickly repair and upgrade. And their natural resources are their ticket to a prosperous first generation future.

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?

Indefinately. It would behoove the US to help build a national arny asap. But it would never be in the Interest to abandone military control over the country until the region is stable. I cannot see that happening in this century.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?

I see a complete US military presence in Iraq to be the key stability factor in the US for years to come. Like the beginning of the Cold War era in east Europe, the tension in the area will be significant for a while. But the pro-west factions in the region will have the confidence to rise up and become a major player. Democracy will demonstrably be an overrididng influence in winning even more support for the for the pro west faction. They will become a significant influence on the upcomming generations. The fundamentalists will have an equal contender. And eventually they will become just a cherished culteral by-product until their influence is relegated to American Christian stature.

But that will depend on the military presnce and example of Iraq and possibly Iran’s internal coup. Iraq will not be amajor player in the mid-east except for underground extremists and terrorists. We will either invade or support a coup in Iran almost immediately. the latter is most likely. And within 5 years the rest of the region and world can focus almost entirely on the Israel/Palistinian conflict. I see that settled within the decade.

12

What will be the effect on the relations betwee the US and European nations, especially those currently opposed to the war?

The EU and US will have strained relations. I see the EU pretty much dividing along lines of anti-US and pro-US. France and Germanies influence will be incumbent upon that sepcific power play. The UK will lead the pro-US and the smaller, newer, and future members will flock to that side. SO I see germany and france truely becomeing old Europe. Their resentment will never go away. But that will not change anything from what it has been since WW2.

What will be the effect on the UN?

The UN will toe the line with the US for the immediate future. Some early changes will be made possibly regarding the SC, but eventually thing wil go back to the way it has always been.

13

**

WHEN will the war start?
**

Within next to weeks. No later than 3 weeks.

14

Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?
No.

How long will the war last?
4-6 weeks, though most of this will be as softening up and mopping up periods.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?
No comment on body bag counts, apart for hoping they are low all round

How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?
ibid

How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?
ibid

Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?
Oppressors of Iraq, liberators from Saddam. The view will be that the US has “only” brought to an end one regime and as always further tyrants, who at least will be Arab, some even being benevolent, will rise in his place.

What will Iraq look like a year after the war?
A country under US martial law. Sporadic sniper attacks, but in the short term Iraq will be relatively quiet. After all they have had plenty of practice living under a military government. Lots of intense and increasing internecine jockeying for position from internal religious, ethnic, political and probably border incursions from Iran as the US determines how to define the exit point.

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?
The US will be unable to extract itself before US domestic opinion tires of the occupation and before US style democratic institutions are accepted by the Iraqis. The US will be faced with the option of either providing at least a decade’s longer military support for a US approved governership or partitioning Iraq and leaving with a civil war erupting into the power vacuum.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?
Will be a significant lull after the storm until the bulk of the US forces return.

After one year the various factions will start lobbying for the real prize of power in Iraq after the US exit point.

Maintream Iraq will begin to prosper and the “old Europe” powers will see a revival of their economies through increased trade links to the Middle East. As the Iraqis regain their economic strength they will demand more than equivalent gains in political strength.

Fundamentalist groups will look at the different appraoches taken by the US on Iraq and PRNK and decide it’s much better to have WoMD than be seeking to obtain WoMD and will target Pakistan as the easiest avenue to obtain WoMD production and delivery systems.

15

Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?
No.

How long will the war last?
There’ll be about 10-12 weeks of combined bombardment and ground fighting before absolute military control of the country will be established. There will be sporadic organized resistance for the entire period of US military occupation of the country. The degree to which this resistance will present an effective guerrila warfare situation depends on the degree of external sponsorship and on the unpredictable impact of Western occupying forces on the existing internicine differences.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?
During the initial combat phase (10-12 weeks), perhaps as many as a few hundred. During the uncertain period following establishment of military control and extending into the indefinite future, it could be less than a dozen per month, or hundreds per year.

How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?
Not less than 15,000. Estimates will be widely disparate, with US gov’t estimates high initially but becoming lower than Iraqi estimates immediately after major hostilities have ended.

How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?
In Bagdhad alone, they may exceed 10,000 during the initial combat phase. If we include deaths among refugees caused by disruption of the country’s food, water and medical logistics, we could see civilian deaths as a direct result of the war which number in the six figures.

Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?
It will depend on who and when you ask. Certainly there must be a majority of Iraqis eager for relief from Hussein’s tyranny. Depending on the degree of immediate humanitarian aid delivered, most of these people will probably see the occupying forces as an ultimately liberating force but also as a temporary evil. As the length of American occupation grows, we’ll be seen more and more as oppressors.

What will Iraq look like a year after the war?
Similar to Afghanistan in terms of factionation, but much, much more highly managed in terms of infrastructure and government. There will, however, be a large number of semi-permanent refugee camps, divided along ethnic and religious lines, which will be breeding grounds for terrorism and rebellion.

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?
Until US supremacy over oil concerns is firmly established and a US-friendly regime is also firmly established. Democracy will be a long-term goal of that regime, and free elections will be held just as soon as the people are ready. No, really.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?
Immediately, a large groundswell of anti-Westernism aimed specifically against US and Israel. Probable Islamic unrest/uprisings in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Pakistan. Probable escalation of the current Palestinian intifada.
One year later… impossible to say. Depends on the degree to which US hegemony in the Gulf has been exerted outside of Iraq. It may take several years, no matter what direction the US takes, before relative stability returns to the region.

What will be the effect on the relations betwee the US and European nations, especially those currently opposed to the war?
US-UK: Strong and more or less cooperative.
US-France: Deteriorating in the arena of rhetoric, with continued shared interests leading to disdainful and reluctant cooperation within a NATO context.
US-Germany: Irrevocable economic ties between the two countries preclude any real sea-change.
US-Spain, US-Italy: Temporary and relatively empty gains for these two supporters will not lead to any real changes in their servile relationship to the US.
US-EU: Probable trade war, lasting through the first year or two of the next Presidential term (assuming Bush is not reelected).

What will be the effect on the UN?
Continuation of efforts by the Bush administration to subvert the importance of UN processes will most likely be effective.

16

Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?
Absolutely 100% NOT. If Blix shows us the “smoking gun” or Bush actually shows us the evidence he claims exists, then I change my mind. I have a hard time with “We’ve got inspectors on the ground, we’ve got aerial surveillance, we’ve got satellite photos, and we know the weapons are there but we don’t know where.”

How long will the war last?
3 weeks of bombing, 3 week ground campaign.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?
5000

How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?
50,000

How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?
200,000
Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?

Oppressors. The Islamic fundamentalists will control the streets as always.

What will Iraq look like a year after the war?
One propped up despot after another.

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?
Two years

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?
One year- still more unstable. Still more terrorism.
Ten years- all moderate Arab regimes will fall to the fundamentalist Islam.

What will be the effect on the relations betwee the US and European nations, especially those currently opposed to the war?
UK- Blair government falls. New PM less friendly to US
France- Much more tension as the childish US reponse to the disagreement of a friend increases.
Germany- no real change
Spain and Italy- increase in mutual support with these non-powers.

What will be the effect on the UN?
No real change- probably a few dozen more anti-Israeli resolutions.

17

Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?
No, not their stated policy, but perhaps their actions - I support the invasion of Iraq with UN authorization. While the administration suggests they will go it alone, they continue to seek UN authorization, even as UN support continues to dwindle. So I am fine with their (lack of) action and continued lobbying of the UN, but not the “go it alone” rhetoric.

How long will the war last?
About 45 days.

The tough part will be agreeing on an objective date when it is “over”. I’m using the criteria that Saddam (or any remaining crony in the power structure) are no longer able to muster an organized defense with military structure. I believe the US will control all of Iraq except Baghdad within only a few days. Saddam will consolidate 15,000 Republican Guard troops into Baghdad proper, and progress in controlling the city will be very slow and bloody.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?
5,000 in the 45 day period described above. An average of 200 per month for each month of occupation thereafter, dwindling to less than 10 per month over a period of two years. Less than 10,000 total in the first two years. Most of these deaths will be due to exposure to bio/chem weapons. Casualties will be much higher. At least 500 deaths will be from “friendly fire”.

How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?
8,000 in the 45 day period above. After that, it will be difficult to determine what an Iraqi combatant is (versus a terrorist, or an outsider just stirring up trouble for the US).

How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?
50,000 to 250,000 in the same 45 day period, mostly in Iraq, but including all civilian casualties related directly and indirectly to the invasion of Iraq. These include civilians killed by the actions of SH, including terrorist style attacks outside of Iraq, missle attacks on residential populations in neighboring countries, and “collateral damage”. The majority of the deaths are caused by chem/bio agents released by Saddam, as well as indirectly related to infrastructure damage and environmental disasters.

Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?
Mixed bag. The Shia will see us as liberators, but they will be skeptics at first. The Kurds see a mixed bag, they have already been liberated so to speak, as they have been remarkably successful in the status quo. Uniting Iraq actually threatens their level of independence. The Sunnis will initially see the US as oppressors/invaders and a threat to the sovereignty of Iraq. Due to SH’s control of the media, most Sunnis blame the US for their current predicament, not Saddam.

What will Iraq look like a year after the war?
A cluster-fuck. The US will be trying its best to provide peace-keeping activities, but various factions, all with very different interests, will resist unifying under a coalition democratic government. The closest description will be civil war, but not with organized troops. Guerrilla-style (or terrorist style, take your pick) tactics will be common, and it will be exceptionally difficult to figure out who the good guys are, because all them will come in shades of gray. The US public will grow weary of continuing to sacrifice US soldiers to build democracy in Iraq when there will be little support for such a structure. Fundamentalist muslims will be one of the most powerful competing parties to democracy, the US will be threatened by that eventuality. Interference by the US in the “democratic” process will be frowned upon by the international community.

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?
Until the US public can take no more. Two years, max, in terms of peace-keeping and martial control. At least until the next major event in the region, the US will maintain permanent military installations.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?
Destabilization, and a prima facia resistence to US policy, regardless of the intent or objective, particularly with regards to Israel. The fundamentalists in Saudi Arabia will be agitated, threatening the stability of the government there. The same flames will grow in Iran, but will be balanced by reformist elements, with the end result approaching if not realizing civil war. Turkey will be destabilized, due to the desire of Turkish Kurds to form Kurdistan with their Iraqi brethren, and thousands of Turkist Kurds will be killed in violent resistance. Fundamentalist factions in Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan will all be stregthened, making it near impossible to advance the US’ foreign policy objectives in those areas.

What will be the effect on the relations betwee the US and European nations, especially those currently opposed to the war?
Continued detioriation, with a complete destablization of NATO to boot. Political alliances will begin to form to counter US hegemony, with the EU and Russia strengthening their trading relationships. China will become the wild card.

What will be the effect on the UN?
The end of the UN as we know it. The US will try to fill the role of the moral arbiter of the world, but the world will increasingly consolidate its resistence to the effort.

When will the war start?
March 25, 2003, 1:00pm EDT

18

Perhaps entering my opinions in the public record will keep me honest. Or perhaps not.

Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?

Yes.

How long will the war last?

6 weeks. Or less. One week to pacify the rest of the country, three weeks to soften up Baghdad from outside, two weeks before Saddam is captured, killed, or flees.

It is entirely possible that there will be no fighting, that Iraq will surrender as soon as US troops cross the border or a few hours after air strikes begin. Saddam may hole up and issues orders to fight to the last man, a la Herr Schickelgruber, but it is entirely likely that his palace guardsmen would look for ways to curry favor with the conquering troops by allowing him to commit suicide by shooting himself in the back twenty or thirty times.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?

Less than 300. Most of those will be from accidents, friendly fire, and so forth. From hostile action, probably a few dozen.

How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?

No one will ever know.

How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?

No one will ever know. Estimates will range from the hundreds to the hundreds of thousands, depending on the ideology of the estimator. Some commentators will blame every death that occurs in Iraq from now to the end of the century on the US invasion.

Certainly Saddam may stage some atrocities against his own people and claim it was done by the US. Some “useful fools” will believe him, but no serious people.

My guess would be 5,000.

Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?

Neither. They will be seen as conquerors.

Similar to how Japan saw the US in 1945. Not much resentment. They are used to mistreatment from Saddam, and most are not dumb enough to buy what he says about us wholesale, but they have nothing to compare the party line to. When it is clear that we aren’t going to shoot civilians wholesale, they will try to get back to their lives and keep their heads down.

Stories from those who surrendered in the first Gulf War will stand the US in good stead here.

What will Iraq look like a year after the war?

Starting to rebuild, and fighting between the various ethnic groups will start to break out.

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?

Two years.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?

The US will be blamed for all the problems of the region, a slew of anti-US and anti-Israel resolutions will be introduced in the UN, the Palestinians will increase acts of terror against Israel, the Saudis will continue their policy of paying off terrorists, Egypt will demand an increase in aid to deal with refugees, and Iran will try to position themselves as the heads of Islamic fundamentalism.
In other words, no change.

What will be the effect on the relations between the US and European nations, especially those currently opposed to the war?

Some change in rhetoric, no change in behavior. The French will attempt to curry favor with the Third World and try to grab the oil contracts. Germans will drop the subject shortly after the US victory. China will do what the French do.

What will be the effect on the UN?

Surprisingly little. Lots of talk, no action, as usual. The US pays the bills, and a rapid and overwhelming victory will give the tinpot dictators of the Third World something to think about.

If they are too weak to enforce their own resolutions, they are too weak to organize any anti-US actions either.

When will the war start?

St. Patrick’s Day, 2003.
Regards,
Shodan

19

**
Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?**

Definitely yes. PR sucks and France is enigmatically screwing things up, but the overall objective is sound. Get Saddam.

**
When will the War Start?**

April 7 Midnite Iraqi time is when I predicted when the bombs start dropping on Baghdad. So far my timetable has been pretty accurate.

**
How long will the war last?**

I cant believe these other guys predictions. 2 Weeks??! It’ll take 2 weeks just to bomb everything. I predict a whole year, 10 months minimum. The objective is to get Saddam. We’ll have to find him first. That will be door to door in Baghdad. The Iraqi people wouldve elected a new president by then, but the war will not end till we scrape Saddams DNA from his blown out bunker.

**
How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?**

Barring any surprise succesful suicide counterattacks or the sudden appearance of WMD that Saddam says he doesnt have, US military casualties will be way under 500 dead, under 10,000 wounded. There will be under a dozen Journalists killed or wounded.

**
How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?**

There is an estimated 10,000 totally blindly loyal troops that Saddam can count on; those will be killed. Several thousand others (loyal or not) will be killed in the bombings. I would estimate 35,000 to 45,000 troops killed, 100,000 captured and the rest wouldve surrendered and switched sides. Those dead will include several Iraqi “special forces” dressed up either as Iraqi civilians or coalition forces.

**
How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?**

Civilians killed by US and coalition military = 5,000.
Civilians killed by Iraqi forces = 2,000.
this includes any casualties in Israel by Iraqi scuds.
Civilians killed as reported by Al Jezzera and other pro-Iraqi organizations = 25,000 minimum.
Civilians killed by Israel forces = unknown.

**
Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?**

Liberators… as soon as they are absolutely sure that Saddam and his loyalists are dead and will not come back.

**
What will Iraq look like a year after the war?**

See present day Afghanistan.

**
How long will the U.S. military occupation last?**

US Special Forces will be around until Iraqis can hold an election without shooting the candidates, each other or their families.

Contingent forces will be based in Baghdad (British and US), Northern Iraq (US) and Southern Iraq (Us and British) for about 5 years or until the Iraqi govt is stable enuf to ask them to leave. It would take that long to mop up all remaining Saddam loyalist and affiliated terrorist organizations that have escaped the invasion.

**
What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years? **

Several oil fields will be on fire and it will take about another year or so to put them out and have production back online. Sanctions will be lifted by then and Iraqi oil will be open to the world market at the middle or end of 2005.

Terrorism will still be perpetrated by cell groups all over the middle east. Impossible to accurately predict where and when they will strike next. Al Qaeda will have more Iraqi members now. The new number one terrorist and/or religious figurehead will be Iraqi. OBL will be dead or captured before Bush enters 2004 elections.

In 2004, the Bush administration will parade all the WMD, nuclear parts, chemical weapons, biological labs and stockpiles and terrorists captured in the war as the key cornerstone for his re-election campaign. If the economy still sucks, he may have a very close election again (like that stopped him the last time) He will not lose if he times the ending of the war correctly. He may even call for the US to resign from the UN and form a new International Organization and with proof of Saddams treachary, he can swing that.

After Bush is re-elected, Iran or North Korea will be the next targets. Iran may grudgingly submit to nuclear inspections with 400,000 US troops already in their back yard and having defeated an enemy that fought them to a stalemate decades ago. There will be a war in Korea if North Korea shoots first.

a 10 year prediction is quite impossible for anyything in the Middle East. What is happeneing now was impossible to predict 10 years ago.

20

Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?
No. Perhaps if more nations were willing to support us. As it stands, even the UK is begininng to tell up to go screw.

How long will the war last?
2-3 Weeks bombing.
2 Weeks to Take Baghdad and other major objectves (th end of the “war”, as far as the media is concerned.
6 Months until teh area is finally pacified to any realistic degree.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?
Less than 1,000 in the initial campaign. Moire during the occupation.

How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?
10,000

How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?
Less than 5,000 due to war damage. 20,000 + due to disease, starvation, etc. due to loss of infrastructure resulting from the war.

Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?
At first, they will be grateful for teh ousting of Saddam. But they’ll begin to resent us soon enough.

What will Iraq look like a year after the war?
A low key and largely secret civil war. The Shia and the Kurds will both rise up. Baathist hardliners will hold out long after Saddam has died/surrendered/fled the country and gone underground (all likely, IMHO). Sunni fundamentalist will also be active in the region. And a few assholes will carve out their own fiefdoms just because they can. A US supported puppet will rule little outside of the oil and Baghdad itself.

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?
Ten years, if we’re smart. Iraq has never had a stable democracy. Merely until our puppet (see above) is on his feet and we’ve seized the (unused duing the war, btw) WMD.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?
Resentment and an escalation of hostilities in all sectors. Israel/Palestine and the US/Iraq will become equivalent terms in terroristic rhetoric. There’s a good chance this will spur uprising the Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Iran will be very, very nervous and prepare for hostilities against the US (although they may never attack unless they think we’ll strike).

What will be the effect on the relations betwee the US and European nations, especially those currently opposed to the war?
A rise in resentment, a weakening of bonds, but very little in actual policy change. France will become sceptical of anything the US does as a matter of course. Still, we will remain trading partners and nominal allies.

What will be the effect on the UN?
The UN will become a largely impotent anti-US club. Until and unless the US gives up its Veto in the security council, it cannot and will not do anything of any significance. the nightmare sceneario is that the US leaves, the rest of the West follows, and the UN morphs into an allegiance of third-world nations who only share their resentent of the US in common.

When will the war start?
3/21/03 0100 Baghdad time.

I want to add one other prediction. Saddam will not use WMD. What he has is too well hidden to be brought out against us quickly. if he tries, our case is vindicated. He wouldn’t until he’s already lots too much to use them effectively anyway.

when it’s all over, We will find WMD, ut not enough (or not scary enough) to vindicate the US in the eyes of tyhose opposed to the war (ie missiles, but no nuclear program, or something like that).

Saddam will not give WMD to terrorists. Several may attempt to take them in the cases surrounding and following the war, however.