So it's fucking war then

[Measure_for_Measure]

The real gem was this 2003 Middle East Prediction Thread from GD. A bunch of real nutjobs there, one going by the name of flowbark:

@Measure_for_Measure

Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?
Sort of. I’m in Pollack’s camp.

I thought I was. Pollack later stated that his book The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq was a balanced treatment of the subject and wasn’t really a case for invading Iraq. Alright then. Except that my reading was that it was a balanced case… for invading Iraq. Then again in another thread I spoke of cold feet when I saw GWB thumb his nose at the rest of the world.

How long will the war last?
No idea. Really. Ok, less than 6 months.

Crap. I was wrong.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?
500-1000. I’m betting on surprises such as a small group of committed Al Qaeda members, a scramble between the US, Turkey and the Kurds to take over certain Northern oil fields or something screwy to boost the total above 500. Let’s hope things don’t totally spin out of control.

Crap. I was wrong. Closer to 4500.

Will Iraq successfully leak WMDs to terrorists when Saddam’s back is to the wall?
No. This is called, “Wishful thinking”. I really can’t say.

I seem to recall that nukes were unlikely, but chemical weapons probable. Though these really are 2 different beasts. Oh yeah, there were bio concerns as well.

How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?
Beats me.

Ditto.

How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?
Beats me.

http://icasualties.org/iraq/index.aspx Way over 50,000.

Wild-ass prediction (WAP)
Most of the civilian casualties will be caused by Iraqi-Iraqi conflict. (That seemed to be the case in Gulf War I, IIRC, or maybe I’m wrong.)

That one sounded right.

Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?
Liberators. At first. In some places at least. I predict that the Iraqis will prefer the Americans over the Iraqi exile organization. Ex Pats are usually not that popular. Though there may be a few individual exceptions, of course.

Whatever.

What will Iraq look like a year after the war?
Let’s hope for the best. I’m not even sure it will be one country. I’m not sure that will be a problem. Will Turkish troops be based in Iraq in a year’s time?

Hm. How’s this? While there is some evidence for civil society in Iraq in the 1970s, there is no evidence of any sort of democratic tradition. (Actually, the Kurds are currently a hopeful exception). Hm. Therefore, we can expect fewer than 2 free national elections before 2010.

Iraq will not be rated as “Free” by Human Rights Watch in this decade. (Let’s hope I’m wrong.) They will be rated as “partly free” for part of the 2004-2010 period, though not all of it.

Iraq was rated “Not free” over the entire 2004-2011 era. Some of its numbers improved though: civil liberties got better, then worse. Political rights improved somewhat. I think there were 2 elections.

Hm. Iraq will a) have a Federal system,
b) split up
or c) decline into dictatorship rule of some sort.

This means that any strong centralized government will not be democratic. Hey, at least I spelled it out.

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?
Full scale: more than 1 year.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?
Five Years?

Final prediction (99.9% certainty): I will be wrong.

Greetings to the future. May you live WMD-free.

Thanks.