Terrific thread. And I’m wimping out: I lack the expertise to give solid predicitions on this.
Ah, what the heck:
Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?
Sort of. I’m in Pollack’s camp.
How long will the war last?
No idea. Really. Ok, less than 6 months.
How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?
500-1000. I’m betting on surprises such as a small group of committed Al Qaeda members, a scramble between the US, Turkey and the Kurds to take over certain Northern oil fields or something screwy to boost the total above 500. Let’s hope things don’t totally spin out of control
Will Iraq successfully leak WMDs to terrorists when Saddam’s back is to the wall?
No. This is called, “Wishful thinking”. I really can’t say.
How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?
Beats me.
How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?
Beats me.
Wild-ass prediction (WAP)
Most of the civilian casualties will be caused by Iraqi-Iraqi conflict. (That seemed to be the case in Gulf War I, IIRC, or maybe I’m wrong.)
Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?
Liberators. At first. In some places at least. I predict that the Iraqis will prefer the Americans over the Iraqi exile organization. Ex Pats are usually not that popular. Though there may be a few individual exceptions, of course.
What will Iraq look like a year after the war?
Let’s hope for the best. I’m not even sure it will be one country. I’m not sure that will be a problem. Will Turkish troops be based in Iraq in a year’s time?
Hm. How’s this? While there is some evidence for civil society in Iraq in the 1970s, there is no evidence of any sort of democratic tradition. (Actually, the Kurds are currently a hopeful exception). Hm. Therefore, we can expect fewer than 2 free national elections before 2010.
Iraq will not be rated as “Free” by Human Rights Watch in this decade. (Let’s hope I’m wrong.) They will be rated as “partly free” for part of the 2004-2010 period, though not all of it.
Hm. Iraq will a) have a Federal system,
b) split up
or c) decline into dictatorship rule of some sort.
This means that any strong centralized government will not be democratic. Hey, at least I spelled it out.
How long will the U.S. military occupation last?
Full scale: more than 1 year.
What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?
Five Years?
Final prediction (99.9% certainty): I will be wrong.
Greetings to the future. May you live WMD-free.