The Middle East Prediction Thread

Great Debates
21

Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?

Yes, right up until the latest attempt to get a second UNSC resolution. We had 1441, and that was enough. By trying to get explicit consent to go to war, we instead will get explicit opposition to the war. Bad gamble, though in the long run, the point will be moot.

How long will the war last?

3 weeks, tops, until Saddam is officially deposed as ruler of Iraq. And additional week until firm military rule is established.

There’s also about a 50% chance that the war will be over in a day or two, as all the Iraqi soldiers try to surrender. Heck, they’re already trying to surrender.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?

Killed by Iraqis? Less than 100. Killed be other means? Maybe a couple dozen.

If WMDs are successfully used against US troops (which I doubt), then casualties will number in the low thousands.

How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?

If they mostly surrender, casualties will number in the low hundreds. If they put up a realistic fight, 10,000 - 20,000.

How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?

Less than 2,000, unless Saddam uses WMDs against his people. In that case, 10,000 - 20,000. I predict this will not happen, though.

What will Iraq look like a year after the war?

The military government will be chugging away at creating the foundations for an Iraqi government. People will be receiving food, medicine and clothing. There will be hunger in some areas as infrastructure is restores, and those opposed to war will complain. Loudly. The number of civilian deaths in the first year will be far less than the number that would have died under Saddam’s rule. This fact will be conveniently ignored by opponents of the war.

There will be occasional terrorist attacks committed against US troops, mostly by al Qaeda. Additional US casualties as a result will number in the dozens.

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?

Random unexpected events will complicate the insertion of a democratic Iraqi government, and it will take us a little longer than we expected until we withdraw out interim government - about 2.5 - 3 years. After that, we will maintain a military presence for the foreseeable future, to protect Iraq from outside forces, as we currently do in Saudi Arabia.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?

In the short term, there will be a moderate increase in terrorist activities, accompanied by loud cries of “I told you so!” In the long term, civil unrest will increase in Iran. The current dictatorship will fall within 3 years. Within 5 years, Iraq will look much like Turkey does today. Within 7 years, Iran will look the same. At that time, Saudi Arabia will look much like Iran does today, with regards to civil unrest.

Terrorism will fall sharply during this period. States that currently sponsor terrorism in the region will fall all over themselves to help us in our War on Terror. Al Qaeda will be effectively disbanded within a decade.

For the next few years, Israel will see little change in terrorism patterns. After 5 years, terrorist attacks on them will begin to abate. In 10 years, terrorism in Israel will decline to the point where serious talks can be made regarding a Palestinian homeland. Israel will be reluctant, but will be threatened by the UN (whom they will ignore), and nudged by the US (whom they will not). In 15 years, terrorism in Israel and New Palestine will be an occasional occurence, but far from the horrifying ordeal it is today.

Bush will receive credit for none of this.

What will be the effect on the relations between the US and European nations, especially those currently opposed to the war?

Largely unchanged, except for France. France will no longer be considered an ally, except in the most tenuous sense. Regardless of how well things go in the ME, the EU will regard the war on Iraq as an affront to humanity. A few legal groups will attempt to charge Tony Blair with war crimes, but these will go nowhere. France will gradually become the de facto leader of the EU, and as such our relationship with the EU as a whole will be strained. Much bickering about trade and such, as well as much rudeness from both sides of the Atlantic. Aside from this, there won’t be much change in the way we do business.

What will be the effect on the UN?

It will lumber on as it has for the past two decades, taking itself much more seriously than it deserves. US opinion of the UN will decline, EU opinion of the UN will increase. The US will continue to be the backbone of the organization, such as it is. It will commonly be referred to in the US as “The League of United Nations”.

When will the war start?

Within a week.
Jeff

22

**Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq? **

No.

How long will the war last?

At least three to five months to get to Baghdad, as problems with aircraft turnaround time (especially with MH-6 Littlebird helicopters, which are essential for fighting in the cities), JDAM inaccuracy in hot and windy weather, and less-than-perfect cooperation with the Kurds in the north requires our overstressed air forces to provide both ground support and infrastructural impedance at the same time. A further six to nine weeks will be required to quell all resistence in Baghdad and Mosul. Significant guerilla forces will conduct raids and terrorist attacks against occupying forces for years to come.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?

Twenty to forty thousand during the active combat phase, nearly all of them in larger towns and cities. 90% of those casualties will be combat injuries and physical ailments, seven percent will be psychological, three percent will be deaths.

How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?

Ten to twenty thousand. The number will be difficult to determine because many of them will attempt to melt into the civilian population in large city centers.

How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?

Well more than a quarter-million, but conditions (and censorship) will prevent an accurate count. Most of the deaths will be due to privation: disease, lack of water, and starvation in city centers where Iraqi solders prevent civilians from fleeing. Political executions by the Iraqis will number in the thousands. Deaths and injuries due to collateral damage will be necessarily high–at least ten to twenty thousand.

Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?

Only in the northeast and southeast will the Americans be viewed as liberators. The Sunni portion of the population in the north-west will be militant and rebellious for years to come.

What will Iraq look like a year after the war?

Iraq will be carved into three, perhaps five or more pieces: a Kurdish northeast, a Shiite southeast, an American-controlled center and northwest, and quite possibly large swaths of territory bordering Syria and Iran being lopped off by ininvited military excursions into those areas, particularly the oilfields along the southern Iranian border. American attempts to control the central and southern areas as one semi-autonomous entity will fail utterly.

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?

One election cycle longer than the American people can stand it. Perhaps twelve years, probably less, but not less than six years.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?

Immediate reaction will be subdued. One year later, weapons of mass destruction will be used in northern Israel by Syrian and Iranian backed terrorists based in Lebanon. Ten years later, most middle eastern nations will be governed by left-leaning military dictatorships. Insurgent forces will proliferate throughout the region, and American interests worldwide will be under constant threat of attack. One of the most active of those forces will be that of the Kurds, who will be fighting for independence rather than the limited autonomy granted by the United States.

What will be the effect on the relations between the US and European nations, especially those currently opposed to the war?

Relations between the US and France, Germany, and Russia will take years to repair. France and Germany will come around once those nations get the nod to come in and repair and modernize the oil facilities and telecommunications infrastructure of the country, and they benefit from a payoff of cheap oil. Russia, which does not want a flood of cheap oil flowing from Iraq, will align itself with other national factions.

What will be the effect on the UN?

The UN will attempt to assert its jurisdiction over Iraq, and the ever widening gap between the US and the rest of the world will continue to stretch wider.

When will the war start?

If it doesn’t start by April 5, it will be delayed until October. My current guess is 2:30 am local time on the morning of March 29.

23

Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?
Yes

How long will the war last?
Less than one month.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?
200-750. This is assuming Sadaam doesn’t use weapons of mass destruction on our soldiers or civilians. In that case, 1,000-100,000 (Of course depending on severity. 100k seems very unlikely but possible).
How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?
Probably 5,000-100,000. Of course depending on how eager they are to fight. There many people in the Iraqi army, if they’re willing to fight to the death we could get some high numbers. I find this unlikely and would say about 10,000.
How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?
1,000-20,000. Of course, I don’t know the US’s military strategy. There’ll be mistakes, of course. A few towns leveled by accident. I’m going to say about 5,000.

Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?
Liberators.
What will Iraq look like a year after the war?
I’m going to say drastically improved. I don’t think it will last, though (It’ll be better than Afghanistan).

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?
Until they can get things settled. No more than 3 years.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?
Muslim countries would probably be happier in the long run without Iraq. But authoritarian regimes will be pissing their pants. This could increase terrorist attacks temporarily. I see little change directly from this war- it could be signs of things to come though.

24

Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq?

Yes.

How long will the war last?

I think there is a small but not insignificant possibility that Saddam, his family and Tariq Aziz will be shot within 30 minutes of the commencement of hostilities.

In any case, the Iraqi army will surrender en masse. A few Republican Guard members may put up a short fight in Baghdad but I doubt that will last long.

There is even a small possibility that the Iraqi army will turn and side with the US in liberating Baghdad. If this happens then I think the US will stay out of the way and let the Iraqis sort out Saddam themselves. Once the Republican Guard find themselves fighting the Iraqi army AND the Iraqi people AND the Americans and British, they may find their best course of action is to go with the flow.

I envisage a Romania-style revolution where a certain amount of fighting needs to be done in order to get rid of the small hardcore of people who were close to the regime and think they will be executed if caught.

How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war?

Between 50 and 500 depending on whether any chemical weapons get used.

How many Iraqi combatants will be killed?

Between 1000 and 5000. There is a chance that there will be one or two renegade army units that decide to fight. Also if the Iraqis use chemical weapons then the US will have to respond with overwhelming force.

Plus don’t forget the al Qaida bunch in the mountains of Northern Iraq. These will be heavily bombed right from day 1. I expect them to be terminated with extreme prejudice. Fighting against these may cause the most US casualties.

How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq?

2000 - 10 000. However a lot of these will be killed by other Iraqis. Saddam has a lot of spies and these spies have been responsible for many of the disappearances and imprisonments (by informing on people). Many of these spies will be killed in revenge killings.

Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people?

Liberators. Although if they outstay their welcome, that will change.

What will Iraq look like a year after the war?

The economy will be improving rapidly and there will be a large number of newspapers and radio stations. All of the newspapers will be critical of the US (but this is good, this is how it should be).

How long will the U.S. military occupation last?

I think the US should get the hell out as quick as possible (in less than a year). They should put in place either a UN administration or an Iraqi civil government.

However, I fear that the Americans will be too intoxicated by the idea of establishing a military presence in another arab country so they will stay there indefinately. This is a big mistake because the Iraqi army are more than capable of keeping order, they don’t need the Americans and having the US there will inflame passions and help the terrorists.

What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years?

Could go either way:

  • it could lead to the spread of democracy as the other nations in the area watch the Iraqi economy go through the roof. It could also lead to the resolution of the Israel conflict within 10-20 years

  • or, it could make the other countries in the area become more intransigent if they feel they need to resist American hegemony in the region (witness Iran trying to accelerate it’s nuclear program)

Since I’m an eternal optimist, I’m gonna go with the first option.

25

Ok, here are my hopes.

I hope the military invasion will save lives over a seven year interval, on balance, compared with a sanctions regime.

I hope that chemical and bio-weapons kill fewer than 800 people during hostilities.

I hope that the Iraqi population enjoys a return to normalcy. I hope they inhabit a country with less than 20% unemployment, economic growth and the beginnings of rule of law and civil society.

I hope that they achieve a country that is as “partly free” as Romania, freer than Saudi Arabia and freer than Cambodia. Nonetheless, even an Iranian level of (non)freedom would be a vast improvement over existing levels of freedom.

26

Is it time to review this thread yet?

27

Almost.

Does anyone know estimates of Iraqi civilian casualties?

Regards,
Shodan

28

U.S. Has No Plans to Count Civilian Casualties

29

“Congress supports compensating innocent Iraqis”

We should do this.

30

This site:
http://www.iraqbodycount.net/

claims to be tracking them. I make no claims as to the validity of their assessment.

31

Thanks, Duck Duck Goose and msmith537.

I said in my first post to this thread that we would never know. Maybe I was right.

Darn interesting thread nonetheless.

Regards,
Shodan

32

This may be a bit on the over-analysis end of things but:

Given what we know about coercion in the Iraqi army, does it make complete sense to disrcriminate between civilian and military deaths? I don’t have a good answer, but it’s something I’ve been thinking about lately. I’m not too thrilled whenever I hear someone in our military speak with any amount of gleefullness about the number of Iraqi military killed. Death shoul never be a cause for celebration.

33

Well, yeah, I think it makes sense, because I think there needs to be a record somewhere of “people who died while they were serving in the Iraqi Army” and “people who died while they were standing in the street outside the market”.

It’s important, for posterity.

And in wars past, there were people serving in other armies who were also coerced, and posterity makes no distinction between “volunteers who died” and “draftees who died”. If you’re in the Army, wearing the uniform and carrying the gun, that makes you an official Army statistic, period.

34

Duck:

Of course you are correct that we should keep track seperately. I was thinking more of whether or not looking only at civilian deaths is a measure of the Iraqi sentiment. We shouldn’t be fooled into thinking that the families of Iraqi military casualties will think any better of the US than families of civilian casualties.

And again, I’d like to see at least a more somber tone by our military and officials when discussing any deaths in this war.

35

I’ve compiled a handy table of results for the people who had the guts to put hard numbers to their predictions.

Let’s go through the first few questions:

How Long will the War last? (Major hostilities ended at 27 days - sporadic fighting continues)

Supported War
2 weeks - 1 month
3 days
3 months
< 6 months
< 1 week
1 week-2 months
6 weeks
10 months min
3 weeks
< 1 month

Opposed War
A month
Until Re-election
4-6 weeks
10-12 weeks
6 weeks
45 days
7 months
7 months

All in all, pretty accurate predictions. The anti-war side thought the war would be slighly longer on average, but not by that much except for a couple of outliers. So it looks like our difference of opinion wasn’t really based on how long the war would take.

Casualties - Coalition (total KIA so far: 156)

Supported War
<500
50
<500
50-500
<300
<500
124
200-750
50-500

Opposed War
1000
A few hundred
5000
5000
<1000
20,000-40,000

Here’s a pretty big difference. The pro-war side clearly expected either a cakewalk or a very lopsided battle. The anti-war guys were WAY off, with a couple of exceptions.

Casualties - Iraq military (Number so far: ???)

Supported War
5000
1000
5000
200-10,000
5000
5000
35,000-45,000
10,000-20,000
5,000-100,000
1000-5000

Opposed War
5000
Lots
>15,000
50,000
8,000
10,000
10,000-20,000

This is interesting - both sides predicted high casualties for the Iraqi military. Obviously, the pro-war guys were willing to accept big casualties in the Iraqi military. It’s not clear how much the anti-war side based their decision on this. I suspect both sides predicted high casualties in the Iraqi military because of the last Gulf War’s example.

Casualties - civilian (So far: Somewhere < 2000)

Supported War
2000
500-5000
5000
7000
<2000
2000-10000
Opposed War
20000
Massive
10,000 in Baghdad, six figures overall
200,000
50,000-250,000
25,000
250,000
5,000

Here’s a bit split - clearly, the anti-war folks thought we were heading into a massive humanitarian nightmare, with huge civilian casualties. The pro-war side was very accurate in predicting, but the important point is that people who supported the war were still willing to accept several thousand innocent civilian deaths.

Will Coalition be seen as Liberators or Oppressors?

Supported War
L
L
L
L
Conquerers
L
L
Opposed War
L
O
L becoming O
O
O, with some exceptions
L becoming O
O, except in North and East

Another big split, and one that’s too early to call in terms of who’s right, except for those anti-war folks who said the coalition would be immediately seen as oppressors. But two said that they’d be seen as liberators at first, but would turn to oppressors as time goes on. The jury’s still out on that. But importantly, all of the pro-war people thought the Iraqis would greet the coalition as liberators. Looks like we never had any Machiavellian bastards who wanted to oppress the Iraqis for their oil.

That’s it so far for the questions that we’re getting close to having answers to - the rest of the questions have to do with results a year or more down the road. Hopefully, we’ll revisit this thread again over time.

Discuss!

36

It looks like the major distinction so far, and the major surprise for both pro and anti positions, is the -thankfully- reduced number of casualties. I think most of us who expected higher losses also expected a more effective defense by the Republican Guard of major cities, with a resultant “street-to-street” fighting/protracted seige/massive bombing campaign strategy by the Coalition. Obviously, this didn’t materialize, but the unanswered question (so far) is why not?

I don’t want to hijack this thread into speculation of recent history (instead of near future), but I wonder if anyone else suspects that those “secret negotiations” with high ranking members of the R.G. that Rumsfeld kept mentioning early on (and then suddenly stopped talking about) were just wildly successful? If true, this would put the lie to the doubts we anti’s had regarding the Bush administration’s understanding of [some] internal Iraqi realities, but it would also tend to support our point that much more could’ve been accomplished relatively peacefully through deals and diplomacy before resorting to invasion.

Any thoughts?

37

Thank you for that analysis, Sam Stone .

38

Well, this is certainly timely, FWIW.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_16-4-2003_pg4_17

And there’s this.
http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,6298200%5E25777,00.html

39

I don’t think negotiating surrender terms with Republican Guard leaders has any real analog to negotiating with, say, members of the Security Council.

The RG were essentially at gunpoint – coalition forces were massed at the Iraqi border at the time of RG negotiations. Obviously, the U.S. couldn’t have used direct militarily threats as leverage against France and Russia.

40

I would also be interested in the thoughts of the board (both from pro- and anti-war types) on what the effect will be on the UN.

North Korea seems to have noticed what happened - will the UN be willing to get involved in getting them to disarm? China and South Korea at least are going to be involved in the talks.

Does this mean that Bush’s actions have made it easier for the UN to work, or less easy?

Regards,
Shodan