Bush is Doomed

Great Debates
1

Bush is doomed because character matters.

Amongst the Plame investigation, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence’s investigation into the lead up to the Iraq invasion, and the latest and greatest, (yet), Chalabi debacle, surely the cats will drown.
Each of these are due to come to a head in the next few, (to several), months.
The first SSCI report on the lead up to the invasion of Iraq that, once-upon-a-time, was due to be released near the Ides of March. It’s scope is limited to just 5 things. The fifth one is the kicker. (It’s always the fifth one.) To wit:[ol]
[li]the quantity and quality of U.S. intelligence on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction programs, ties to terrorist groups, Saddam Hussein’s threat to stability and security in the region, and his repression of his own people;[/li][li]the objectivity, reasonableness, independence, and accuracy of the judgments reached by the Intelligence Community;[/li][li]whether those judgments were properly disseminated to policy makers in the Executive Branch and Congress;[/li][li]whether any influence was brought to bear on anyone to shape their analysis to support policy objectives; and[/li][li]other issues we mutually identify in the course of the Committee’s review."[/li][/ol]

While this one is certainly a report ‘of note’, it’s only the bigger billy goat Grough. Coming next from the SSCI is the report ‘other issues’ the mutually identified. (Technically, the issues were unanimously identified.) Specifically and especially, items numbered C, E, F, and G:
C. whether public statements and reports and testimony regarding Iraq by U.S. Government officials made between the Gulf War period and the commencement of Operation Iraqi Freedom were substantiated by intelligence information;
E. prewar intelligence assessments about postwar Iraq;
F. any intelligence activities relating to Iraq conducted by the Policy Counterterrorism Evaluation Group (PCTEG) and the Office of Special Plans within the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy; and
G. the use by the Intelligence Community of [www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/8010341.htm+“U.S.+still+paying+millions”+“provided+false”+intelligence+“john+hannah”+luti&hl=en]information](http://216.239.39.104/search?q=cache:vVMDrsefG2QJ:[url) provided by the Iraqi National Congress (INC).

When the results of the Plame investigation are made publlc, it will highlight the fact that Amerca’s struggle, the World’s stuggle against the proliferation of WMD, the struggle to keep the world’s most powerful weapons out of the hands of the world’s most dangerous people, was compromised for in a play for political gain.

The SSCI’s investigating the INC’s DoD funded ICP, that was run by an Iranian spy, (a former member of the IRGC). The ICP passed information directly to its primary point of contact in the OSD, (Office of SECDEF), and the OVP. In the OSD was William Luti, who oversaw the OSP, (linked to the PCTEG). In the OVP, it was John Hannah who gave his direct DC phone number to a Pentagon-funded Iranian intelligence operation against the US. The very same John Hannah who’s treading water at the center of the Plame investigation. The poor fuck’s in the middle of two serious breeches of national security. His head’ll go under before any of his bosses’ll. His head may end up functioning as a temporary support for a fellow drowning cat.
Anyway, Doomed I tell ya. DOOMED.
(Notice I didn’t mention any of the various ‘smaller’ investigations involving the VP and his interests, nor any of Perle’s confliicts of interests?)

And if they’re not Doomed, I know a recipe for humble pie made with crow that’s 'bout palatable with enough katchsup.

2

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. None of that is going to matter in the election. What will matter is how well we are doing. If the war/reconstruction is going well, most Americans won’t care about all the other stuff. If it’s going poorly, that’ll just be another nail in the coffin. Right now, I’d say we’re not doing very well. It’s possible things could improve before Nov, but it’s proabably more likely to get worse.

Still, though, no apology about 9/11 yet from Bush or his cabinet… :slight_smile:

3

You make my head spin sometimes, Simon; nevertheless, this is an interesting OP. Why is it in the Pit instead of in Great Debates–are the insults less odious here?

What interests me most about this is the fact that the Republican-controled Senate seems to be heading up these investigations. I can see a few different motives for this:

-Just because a senator is Republican doesn’t mean that she’s beholden to the White House; although Bush inspires a great deal of loyalty, that doesn’t always win out over ethics. Pat Roberts et al may be standing up for what’s right.
-The scandal is rolling across Washington like a tsunami (I only wish John Sununu could be worked in somehow, because Tsunununami is fun to type); politicians may choose to ride ahead of it or be crushed by it. Pat Roberts et al may be choosing to grab the bull by the horns.
-Bush may have played the Senate for fools, and now it’s time for payback.

In any case, it does look like Bush’s legendary ability to inspire party loyalty is faltering. Sure, it’s not gone; far from it. But do we begin to see his Clinton moment, in which prominent members of his own party will be coming out to condemn his actions?

Daniel

4

:smack: This is, perhaps, the stupidest question ever to appear in Great Debates.

Not The Pit, Daniel, you ignorant slut. The stupidest question ever to appear in Great Debates.

Sorry about that!

Daniel

5

Not even close. You can trust me on this.

6

Well, in any case whatever you were gettinng at:

The Bush Admin’s a Threat to US National Security

7

I can appreciate why you’d say this. I agree that if thing in Iraq improve to a point where we look at the state of Iraq as a point of pride that it’d eclipse a lot.
However, I think that the electorate is becoming more aware of the importance of foreign policy. And, I also have serious doubts about Iraq reaching a satisfactory conclusion by Nov.

Well, it’ll be good to shut me up for a while anyway.

8

You put a lot of weight on the SSCI Simon, but don’t forget about the threat posed by the president’s own Independent Commission on Intelligence. They’ve finished building their headquarters, and will hold their first meeting this week at the Crystal City facility.

9

We have 5 1/2 months until the first election (with the Supreme Court casting the final vote sometime later). The idea that revelations in the Spring can be accurate indicators of attiudes that will have been adjusted by new revelations, more spin, greater or lesser TV presence, or a host of other unpredictable events is simply wishful thinking.

Suppose, for example, that Bush really has made a deal with his Saudi friends to keep gas prices high until just before the election? (This is a hypothetical based on various reported rumors and, as such, has no basis in demonstrated fact.) If the price of gas drops precipitously at the end of October and there are enough other news events to keep the aforementioned rumor from being widely heard and accepted by the electorate, Bush will probably win. (Alternatively, if there has been no deal, but Bush is able to persuade the Saudis to increase oil flow in time for the election, he will probably win without the taint of having “engineered” the crisis.)

Another successful al Qaida attack on the U.S. could either cause the electorate to choose to “not change leaders in war time” or else to “throw out the man who cannot keep us safe.” Speculating the results without knowing the actual events is an exercise in futility.

10

Simon, you’re right re: what I was thinking; I’d wondered why you’d posted the other OP in the Pit, and having browsed too many pit threads already today, just assumed this one was in the Pit as well.

Thanks, elucidator–you got my back!

I’m also not convinced that this is going to blow over. One of Bush’s primary selling points in 2000 was that he would restore dignity to the White House; I’m not sure how well his claims of dignity will survive this mess. If the electorate ends up with a poor impression of his character, that’ll be far more lasting than any specific scandal.

Daniel

11

Yah, I think Bush is doomed too. There are too many torpedos in the water. If any one of them hits their target, the whole administration will go down.

Even barring that, I think it’s highly unlikely that Bush can win in the election this fall. Why? He won the last election by the skin of his teeth. The Dems are frothing mad this time around. His approval ratings are well below where historically its been possible for an incumbent to recover. And he’s squandered most of his money advantage and still trails in the polls.

I’ve been telling my friends for weeks that I think there’s a 5% to 10% chance that we’ll actually see a group of breakaway Republicans try to put forward someone other than Bush at the convention. It wouldn’t take much to make him unelectable at this point – “Scooter” Libby indicted for treason in the Plame affair, for example, or a Khobar Towers-scale debacle in Iraq. Remember LBJ in 1968 … .

12

I just noticed. Here’s the fixed link

G. the use by the Intelligence Community of information provided by the Iraqi National Congress (INC).

13

Sadly, I don’t think Bush’s voters really care. Unless you are looking at one of these scandals somehow forcing his entire administration to resign or be forced out (neither is very likely), that is. The best you can hope for is that enough Bush supporters get disillusioned that they just don’t vote.

14

While I wish I could share SimonX’s prediction of Bush’s doomedness, it is important to note that there are still five months before the election – plenty of time for the Republican “dirty tricks” teams to get their shenanagans in motion, such as purging black voters and rigging electronic voting machines.

15

I tell you this: if the Democrats don’t win this time around, they might as well disband.

16

There is virtually no scenario for the same–

the first thing any Iraqi is going to have to do in running for office is talk shit about us.

Remember, talking shit about us,was enough to get newspapers closed down and crowds fired upon, in the “good old days”

Our supply lines are stretched too far, so to speak…
Iraqi oil export pipeline ablaze after blast
Ireland Online, Ireland - 9 hours ago
… The explosion damaged parts of a twin-pipeline running from Iraqi oil fields near the northern city of Kirkuk to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, a Turkish official …
Explosion stops Iraqi oil flow to Turkey - WHNT
…http://www.google.com/url?sa=X&oi=news&start=0&num=1&q=http://212.2.162.45/news/story.asp%3Fj%3D2239095%26p%3Dzz39yyx%26n%3D2239187

17

I’m a gambling man. By definition, gambler’s speculate. I’m speculatin’. I s’spect I’m expectulatin’.
I may have an accurate, mystical, crystal ball. Do I indeed have one? Well, goodness, I’m not really at liberty to answer that question. But even though I can’t exactly deny my alleged posession of an accurate, mystical, crystal ball, I do want to tell you that I foresee an increase in the increasing number of mini-shitstorms swirling around the Bush Admin.

If the Plame affair solidly attaches itself publicly to Libby, I don’t think the Admin can weather it. Maybe they could if every other condition were ‘just so’, but everything else is not ‘just so.’ I don’t think that the ‘few bad apples’ defense’ll work for the VP’s CoS. At least not in an election year

If the SSCI comes to some of the less than flattering conclusions it seems the facts pressure them to reach, it’ll be the whole invasion shitstorm afresh, (opposed to the occupation shitstorm), but the less than flattering accusations’ll be less than flattering conclusions in historical black and white.

And our best beloved Chalabi. Ah, bittersweet. Ah, melancholy. How I’d miss him if he ‘exited the stage’.
I’m not sure what the appropriate charges are for what’s been alleged. It’s espionage of some sort I supppose, (if it’s the result of mendacity), and grave negligence unto dereliction of duty, (if born of incompetence). I don’t think that it’s treason because Iran’s not an enemy exactly. (I’ve not even started to try and find out. If someone knows or’s willing to find out…).
Even if this doesn’t stick to someone ‘senior,’ just for the currently ascertained facts to be made well known, (as they will be when the specific charges are made public), could be instrumental in swaying undecideds.

Iran’d be silly if they did not make many ‘official denials’ that are meant to be read as confirmations. What else could they do when it’s being alleged that they pulled fast one on the US? They bask in the glow of the rumor at least. If I were Iran, I’d count coup I could regardless of the truth of the matter.
There’re human limits on how much shit one can spin. At a certain point it becomes undeniable to even ‘convinced’ observers that the subject of observation’s wholly devoted to damage control. A little bit of damage control is healthy and expected, but in large doses it can be fatal.

Who’ve we got guarding those things anyway?
Oh yeah…

18

Actually, we made a big deal about how we were redeploying forces to guard those very same pipelines back in April. Fancy razamataz about snipers in helicopters with night vision killing people without ever being seen, that kind of stuff. The gist was, the best units we had.

This is the same pipeline that has been out of action or operating at less than half capacity for most of the occupation.

Occupation Watch articles on it

The media has been more than quiet on this subject. This is the main oil pipeline out of Iraq, and this is how we were supposed to be funding rebuilding. Basically, they aren’t able to export a good amount of oil, so it is piling up in storage and plants are operating under peak efficiency. Everything is being rerouted to the south, which isn’t much better, and has to all go through one tiny port, creating a logistical nightmare. The entire scenario is a horrible mess.

So none of this is really surprising.

19

On the other hand, I’m not even sure how these claims survived the first year of his administration!?! So, who knows. But, I hope you are right.

20

As I recall, the first year we were all still trying to comprehend how blandly stupid he is.

Such innocent times…