I have two factual questions and several speculative ones. I don’t know in which formum this thread should be, and have chosen GD because I really do want answers, and political threads don’t do well in IMO or MPIMS.
So, if Kerry were hit tonight (Tues, Jul 27) and killed by a flaming toilet seat from the sky (or died for any other reason for that matter), who would be the Democratic nominee. Does the VP candidate presumptive get it, or does it open to the floor? (Factual question # 1). If Kerry died next week, after he and Edwards were nominated, would it then default automatically to the VP candidate? (Factual question # 2).
Speculation: If it did get thrown to the floor, whom would the convention nominate? Who would be the VP nominee? Would the Dems have a better or worse chance of winning the election? Would the Pubs think this was a good thing or a bad (Kerry out, <Your candidate here> in, not the Dems winning!)?
I think there’d be a floor fight between the Dean supporters and those who believe that, rightly or wrongly, Dean is perceived as too radical. I think Edwards would take the nomination, possibly at the cost of giving Dean the VP slot. If Edwards were not locked into Dean as VP, I think he would try to get Bill Clinton as his running mate - unlike Kerry, I don’t think he would fear being overshadowed, as he is quite charismatic himself. I think the Pubs would jump for joy, and then lose big time in November.
If Dean did get the nomination, I think he’d try to get a southern moderate Dem to run with him (possibly Edwards?), but I don’t know if he could overcome the perception that the Republicans so effectively created of his being a wild and irresponsible bleeding heart liberal.
I apologize to the Moderators if this is in the wrong forum; as I said, I didn’t know where to put it.
That would be “forum,” not “formum!” :o How is it you can never see these things in Preview, but they jump out at you as soon as you see it actually out there?
Heh. I’m just thinking about the religious repercussions if a flaming toilet manifested itself in the sky and hit Kerry. Would it have been because he is an evil Papist, or because he didn’t follow Papal doctrine closely enough?
Factual Question#1 : Most state delegates are already free to vote for whoever they want to. I think a few states have restrictions, but for the most part the only reason the delegates vote for the candidate that their state chose is that they beleive in the system and want to continue the will of the people.
#2 I do not know.
Speculative : I’d say that Edwards would be nominated for Pres. He was coming on strong. I’d say that he’d pick Clark for VP to bolster his military credentials (something Kerry didn’t need as much.)
I’d then assume the race would be just as close as Bush/Kerry race would be.
#2 – The Democratic National Committee would meet and nominate someone else for the top spot which could be their VP nominee, or could be anybody else who was willing to take it.
Not a chance. The vice-president is mainly our spare tire, the one who is there to take over the presidency right away should POTUS die, resign, be impeached and removed, or become incapacitated. The office really has no other important functions – the VP is nominally president of the Senate, but usually the president pro tem of the Senate does the presiding. Clinton, having served two full terms, is barred by the 22nd Amendment from ever being president again, so there’s no point in making him VP.
I think it’s far more likely that he’d be disqualified if it’s found out that he’d the product of an international adoption. In retrospect would sure make him seem less stupid for not knowing he wasn’t Irish, but the dems would be in an uproar…
Edwards would probably get the pres nom, with Dean or Lieberman getting the VP bid.
I could easily see the convention giving the nomination to Al Gore with Edwards remaining the vice-presidential candidate. This would be similar to the death of Paul Wellstone and the Democrats nominating Mondale as his replacement. Edwards only won the South Carolina primary and was always suspected of running for vice president this year. There is no way the convention would nominate Dean. Dean only won Vermont.
An interesting choice, although not likely, would be Jimmy Carter.
Most delegates are pledged to a particular candidate for the first ballot, so they’re not entirely free to vote for whom they please. AFAIK all other candidates have released their delegates from their pledges. It’s worth noting that voters in primary states, and caucusgoers in others, are not actually selecting a preferred candidate, but for a slate of delegates pledged to that candidate - just like in the general election, where we actually vote for a slate of electors.
I don’t have DNC rules handy, and they could be changed by vote at the convention anyway, but it would certainly seem that the convention would be thrown open, probably with multiple rounds of ballots, just like in the old smoke-filled-room days when real business was transacted at conventions. They’d probably pick Edwards, I agree.
If it happened after the convention adjourned, no clue.
If it happens after the convention, Edwards will step forward as the presumptive nominee. No one else would have the stones to challenge him. Edwards and his team would then pick a VP candidate.
If it happened today, before the nomination, then the delagates are free to vote for whoever they wish.
People who would NOT be nominated (or chosen as VP):
Bill Clinton (Come on!)
Al Gore. He had his chance, his career is over.
Jimmy Carter. (!!?) What are you people smoking?
Hillary! She’s too divisive. She needs to serve a term or two as Senator before she can even consider a White House race.
Howard Dean. Like Gore. Again, as Patton said, Americans love a winner and they cannot stand a loser. Howard Dean flamed out spectacularly, not because he made his scream speech, but because HE DIDN’T GET ANY VOTES.
Lieberman. Again, his shot at national office is past. People didn’t care for him last time, they didn’t care for him this time, the convention isn’t going to nominate him again.
Gephart. Actually, he has a chance at the VP slot, although he shouldn’t. He’ll never be nominated for president.
If Kerry is taken out, Edwards has already been annointed his successor, it would take a spectacular blunder by Edwards for him to not be nominated. And I can’t see him picking any of the Dem Presidential candidates from this year, a pretty lackluster bunch. He’d probably pick a popular sitting governor for his running mate rather than try to ressurect one of the losers from the presidential campaign.
I think, given the confusion about his heritage, the odds are greater that he would find out that his parents lied to him and adopted him as a baby from a country other than the US than he would be killed by a flying toilet. Do you contend that finding out that one is adopted is less likely than being killed by a flying, flaming, bathroom fixture? Either senario is unlikely, but toilets seem more unlikely IMO, so I proposed a slightly more realistic reason he would lose the presidential nomination. YMMV
BrainGlutton, the text of the 22nd Amendment is as follows:
That precludes someone from being elected twice, or from serving out someone’s term as VP for more than two years and then being elected twice. It does not preclude someone from being elected VP (and then inheriting the presidency) after being elected twice. Apparently the authors of the amendment never considered this to be a possibility.
I was never a huge fan of Bill Clinton myself, but there’s no question that he’s the heaviest hitter extant in the Democratic party today, and almost no question in my mind that if not for the 22nd Amendment, he could run against GW and win handily right now, given the degree of disenchantment with GW among many of his more moderate or libertarian constituents. He would certainly be an asset to the Dem ticket. Given his level of experience, he would certainly also be a highly qualified choice! However, it’s not at all clear that he’d be willing to accept the VP slot - for most people, present admin excepted, being president is very hard work and he likely feels that he’s done his bit.
Carter is practically the poster child (wrongly in my opinion) of the extremely good man not up to the job. He would never be chosen, IMO, and wouldn’t accept if he were.
I think some of you underrate Dean’s popularity among the delegates and his power to stir people up. I don’t think he’d get it - people are still too afraid of his image as a crazy man - but I think it would be close.
After last night’s speech, I suspect there’d be a ‘draft Obama’ movement, for VP, anyway. Edwards/Barack would be an interesting ticket, and a miracle for the Dems - two highly charismatic candidates on a single slate!
The flaming toilet from the sky, btw, was a nod to the cable series Dead Like Me. In the first episode, the central character is killed by a toilet seat dropped from Mir. I used it to suggest a sudden death for random reasons - the questions hold regardless of how Kerry might die.
If the Flaming Commode of Death (hereinafter FLACOD) hit today, the convention’s delegates could elect whoever they please as the presidential candidate.
If it happened on October 1st, or any time after the covention adjourns sine die, the Charter & The Bylaws of the Democratic Party, the Democratic National Committee has the authority to fill “vacancies in the nominations for the office of President and Vice President.”