NFL Picks Week 3

In My Humble Opinion
1

I didn’t see Stuffy start a week 3 picks thread, I hope nobody minds if I go ahead and start one now, see as I have all my picks right here and ready and all…

I’d like to start by going over my week 2 failures…

On the San Fran vs. New Orleans game:

Final score was NO: 30, SF:27 I can’t feel too bad about that one.

On Denver vs. Jacksonville:

Final score was Jax: 7, Den: 6 Okay…I wasn’t really too far off base here either.

But enough of my mild miscalculations…I went 10-6 for week 2. But at least I didn’t proclaim anything idiotic this time. I was very wrong on the Giants, Chiefs, Seahawks & Packers. Seriously, would you have put money on the Bears? But enough of my shortcomings, let’s focus on some positives, eh? How about this nugget?

Final Score was Phi: 27, Min 16 (that’s 43 points kids!) Who’s YOUR Daddy??

Anyway, on to my Week 3 picks….
Sunday 1pm
Atlanta over Arizona

The 10 point spread is huge, and I’m tempted to take it. But my office pool is a simple win/loss thing, so I’ll take the Falcons at home to beat up on the Cards. Besides, the Cardinals don’t have an answer for Alge Crumpler.

Baltimore over Cincinnati

I know Cinci is home. I know the Ravens haven’t looked impressive. To quote Han Solo, “Don’t tell me the odds!” Well, Baltimore is a 2.5 point favorite on the road…okay then, Tell me the odds! Ray “Bad Mother Fucker” Lewis introduces Rudi Johnson & co. to a new world of pain.

Minnesota over Chicago

Okay, if not for a lucky fumble 1mm away from the goal line, and TO getting credit for a TD on a play that clearly wasn’t, the Vikings might have come closer to beating the Eagles on Monday night. Fellow Long Island native Mike Tice is sure to represent ‘Central Islip’ style and take out his anger on Da’ Bears. Bears did a good thing last week (I picked Green Bay too) but playing an angry Vikings team on the turf at Minnesota will be too much for them.

Giants over Cleveland

Guess what? Giants players are unhappy with their roles in Kernel Coughlin’s offense. Today’s ninny’s are Ron “maybe a yard” Dayne and Jeremy “Lets have a threesome” Shockey. Coach Coughlin should fine any player $500 for whining. That being said, they should beat up on the Browns & profess how much they buy into Coughlin’s system, until the next time the don’t feel like it.

Houston over Kansas City

Am I saying the Chiefs are going to go 0-3? Yep. A hobbled Priest. Diaper wearing back-ups. Whining? Did I bust on the Giants about whining??? Any player on this defense should shut the hell up when asked if they needed off-season help. I’m pickin’ on KC this week…they drive Dick Vermeil to tears. Ooooh a Vermeil crying joke…how utterly original. Whatever. Domanick Davis holds onto the ball & has a good day. Down goes the Cheifs. Super Bowl indeed.

Tennessee over Jacksonville

The Mighty Titans shouldn’t have much trouble at home over Jacksonville, who lady luck has shined on 2 weeks in a row.

St. Louis over New Orleans

If I was really feeling it, I’d make this an upset special. But New Orleans still has got to put it together. They did a nice job rallying against the Niners last week, but the Rams did a nice job of getting Marshall Faulk back into the game. If Faulk is close to being his old self, and the St. Louis wideouts take advantage of it, the Rams might just have themselves a good year. Rams win it close (against the spread, which was 7 last time I checked)

Detroit over Philadelphia

That’s right. Read it again. The Lions went on the road & beat the Bears, who in turn went on the road & beat the Packers. The Lions cut the Texans’ offensive production in half from week 1 to week 2. The Eagles come off of a lucky win over Minnesota, on a short week, travel to Detroit. This is the week, Eagles haters, when you get to say, “See??? I’ve been saying this all along!!!” Lions win & TO yells at someone.

Pittsburgh over Miami

I’m just going to keep going against Miami because it pleases me to do so. Ben Roethlisberger will have some tough moments, but he’ll start forcing us all to learn how to spell his name soon enough.

Sunday 4:15
Denver over San Diego

Is Denver really getting 10 points? Well, Q Griffin shall continue to prove that you can put anybody behind a line well schooled in cheating, and you’ll get a thousand yards outta him. Seriously, Quentin has looked very good & San Diego’s defense will be chasing him all day. Look for LaDainian “I refuse to call him L.T.” Tomlinson to keep it close. (Taken against a spread of 10 points)

Indianapolis over Green Bay

Look for the Pack to be rude hosts in week 4, but they get beat in Indy this week.

Seattle over San Francisco

The Seahawks are getting 11 at home here. I don’t know about that spread, but I am banking on a win from them. Ken Dorsey continues his on the job training. Seattle wins today, but San Fran looks forward to enjoying the last laugh. Someday…

Sunday Night 8:30
Tampa Bay over Oakland

I think Tampa Bay gets on track here. Gruden should continue to confound his former team, and Al Davis slams his fist on a desk in frustration somewhere.

Monday Night
Dallas over Washington

I’ll take Dallas in a low scoring affair on Monday night. The first crisis of the new Joe Gibbs era starts here with a 2-game losing streak to divisional foes.

That’s all folks…have a great weekend.

AndyPolley’s season picks 22-10 (.687) Dishes of crow eaten: 1 Apologies for idiotic picks: 1

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Feel free to start it anytime, I merely picked up the torch myself, I don’t even remember who started the tradition. I was thinking Omnicient. Anyway, I’ve been busy with yet another custody thing with my boys mother, my Mom coming to town, my sisters wedding, etc…so I’ve been tied up. I’ll be back with my picks tonight or tommorrow morning.

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Well, my Week 2 misses have been encapsulatedhere, so lets get right to the week ahead.

The theme this week is injuries. Several of my picks might have gone the other way if I never read the injury wire. Legs and ankles seem to be a-crackin’ all over the league.

Atlanta over Arizona
One of the two “Lock of the Week” picks out there. A real no-brainer.

Baltimore over Cincinnati
Gotta love divisional games. Here we have one team overperforming and one team underperforming. However, this week under beats over.

Minnesota over Chicago
For both these teams, Week 2 was all about luck. Good for one, bad for the other. But, since we can never see who’ll be getting the breaks ahead of time, I gotta go with the clearly superior team here.

Giants over Cleveland
Holy crap, my Big Blue are going to start 2-1! That’s at least one, if not two games better than I thought they would’ve two months ago. This should pose no problem for them. The Browns are already beaten, battered and broken. Want to know who had the same passer rating that Jeff Garcia did last week? You and I both did. Big fat zero rating. Combine that with the Giants continuing to concentrate on creating turnovers, and this is going to be a steamrolling*.

Kansas City over Houston
I have no reason to make this pick. Holmes is out, KC can’t stop the run, yadda yadda yadda. I know, I know…but each week brings upsets. Wow…can you imagine a year ago calling the Chiefs over the Texans an “upset”?

Jacksonville over Tennessee
The Jags’ are rolling, and it’ll take more than the performances we’ve seen from the Titans to stop them.

St. Louis over New Orleans
A toughie. The Rams are in a downward spiral, and the Saints have “big things” written all over them this year. Still, I think Bulger will manage to eek out a very close win here.

Detroit over Philadelphia
Eff the Eagles. Eff them up their stupid, overrated asses. Lions roll, Eagles fail, McNabb keeps hitting receivers’ shoes, T.O. starts whining, and the collapse begins. Hal celebrates.

Miami over Pittsburgh
I see good things in the future for Roethlisberger, but they don’t begin just yet. The 'Fins got great D right now, and I just can’t imagine a world in which Miami starts out 0-3.

Denver over San Diego

Ahhh, crap…I gotta leave. To be continued…

*of course, I said the same thing last year as I sat up in section 335 watching the Giants get crushed by a third-string Falcons QB.

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The Ravens in Cincinatti would normally be a gimmie (Ravens, of coarse), if it
wasn’t for the Week 1 disaster in Cleveland. You know, the game where the Browns, who have virtually no offence, put 20 on the board while holding the Raven’s to 3 points. With Todd Heap out this week, the Raven’s No.1 receiver, the workload on offence will be on Jamal’s shoulders. An inexperienced QB in Boller, along with zero targets for him, suddenly make Cincinatti’s already-above-average offence look that much better. I mean, Rudi Johnson fills Dillon’s shoes just fine, and throw in Pro-Bowler Chad Johnson with Heisman Trophy winner QB Carson Palmer…it’s an easy decision. Factor in the homecrowd, and you have yourself a sure victory for the Bengals.

LUCKY WIN? Did you watch that game? Goal-line stands was the name of the game. The Eagles defence solid. Were you referring to the “TD” catch by T.O.? Sure, that wasn’t a touchdown, but the Eagles still outplayed the Vikings. Philly played more physical, spread the ball around, and actually had some sort of running game. Philly has also been known, in recent years especially, as one of the best road teams in the league. Last year, for instance, they went an astounding 7 - 1 on the road. Also, with Charles Rogers out for the season, and virtually no running game, the Lions will struggle to put up points. Who is going to stop T.O. from Detroit’s secondary? Pro-Bowler Dre Bly is doubtful for Sunday, so that leaves…um…oh yes! Fernando Bryant, the next best thing! He is 5ft 10inches, and a jaw-dropping 175 lbs! Pit him against 6-3, 226 lb Terrell Owens, and I think you can do the math.

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Well SuperMOnk, I’m really not that sure of anything in this league. The Predictions of AndyPolley are for entertainment purposes only. If you gain some entertainment value out of calling me an idiot (I call myself an idiot all the time) then I am pleased :wink: I am a sports photographer by trade, not a handicapper.

(I will let my .687 success rate speak for itself, though)

*However…*This needs to be addressed

I’d never get caught writing that particular sentance fragment. You have watched the Bengals in the past dozen or so years, right? There is no such thing as a ‘sure victory’ for the Bengals. If you want to pick them, it’s wise to use cautious optimisim.

That would be more appropriate :smiley:

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Good thing I checked, I was just getting ready to start my own thread. I’ll just paste it in here instead. Enjoy.

Getting in a late start here, missed last week due to a trip to Vegas which I’m sure you all understand. I do however have to tell you how disappointed I am in myself. All week I’d been getting giddy about hiting the Sports Book and soaking up NFL action with some cash on the line for some crazy bets. Things went awry sometime around 6 AM Saturday night. It involved a strip club and some girls and lots of booze. One thing led to another and we ended up missing the start of the games. Didn’t stagger back to the hotel until about 11:30 the next morning. Soon I realized that we had to check out of our room and that games started at 10 AM in the West…boo. Anyways, my skills have been subpar so far this season…very subpar. I laid some cash online on my pick 5 last week and it ended badly, I think I went 1-4 or 2-3, I’ll check later.

Sunday, Sept. 26
Arizona at Atlanta, 1 p.m. (Atlanta -10)
Here we go. This is the one game out there that I think is a pretty solid lock. I think the Cards will score some, and the as-of-yet effective Falcon D is a little overrated. That said, it looks like the work Mora Jr. did in SF wasn’t a fluke. Arizona will not contain Vick at home. Not at all. Nor will they contain Dunn, Price might actually break out for a big play or two for a change. Larry Fitz could have a nice day though too. I’m taking the Falcons to win and cover, Final score: Falcons 35 - Cardinals 17

Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1 p.m. (Baltimore -3)
I’m just not sold on Baltimore, can’t say why. Boller wll really miss Heap this week I think, and that might be just enough of an edge to get Cincy over the edge. I’m nto going to stake money on the Bungals just yet, but they’ve got an awful lot of talent. I’m not sure what’s been keeping Rudi from breaking out more, I guess I shouldn’t make bold predictions without watching the team play more complete games. Carson at home is a pretty decent play I think, though the Ravens blitz schemes could be pretty confusing. If he’s aclimated to the speed of the league at all, he could be OK. This is a pretty weak feeling, but I’m going to take the upset here. Final Score: Bengals 20 - Ravens 15

Chicago at Minnesota, 1 p.m. (Minnesota -9)
Thats just like the Bears. Get a Big W, and lose 3 players to injury in the process. One step forward, two steps back. Traditionally we’ve always played the Vikings really tough though. The Pack has had our number for the better part of a decade, but we’ve made a habit of playing spoiler for the Vikes. I think this will be a closer game than the spread indicates. Moss and Culpepper will be able to move the ball with such a banged up secondary, but they won’t be able to run the ball against us with that banged up core. Making them one dimentional and getting tight around the goalline will keep it close. Thomas Jones will have another huge game this week too. We’ll see what Grossman’s got in this big road test. High scoring affair for a change. Final Score: Vikings 30 - Bears 27

Cleveland at N.Y. Giants, 1 p.m. (NYG -3)
I’m surpised the G’ints are favored here. They needed 7 turnovers to outlast the Redskins and they didn’t look good in week one at all. Cleveland’s D has been extremely tough, and their speed at WR hits right at the weakness of the Giants D. That said, the Giants are good enough on offense to stay with anyone if they limit the mistakes. Unfortunately for them they have a rookie QB and a guy named Warner, neither of which has a propensity for playing mistake free ball. Thats enough for me, I’m taking the Road dog here. Final Score: Browns 26 - Giants 24

Houston at Kansas City, 1 p.m. (KC -8½)
These teams have disappointed alot of people. Can’t say I’m all that surprised with the Chiefs struggling though. Priest has always been a guy that gets sprains and pulls, so he wasn’t expected to play all 16 and that WR core is pathetic! You can marginalize the WR position and still be a very good team…up to a point. Houston however is a big shock to me. They’ve been real bad on defense, which was a strength last year. The games the won were games where they were able to stifle the opponents running game. As much pub as the young skill positions players get, they weren’t the ones that dictated the game. I didn’t think they’d be 12-4, but I thought they’d be a tough out every week and that they’d be a long ways from the doormat again. Go figure. Who’s going to turn it around his week? I say neither. The Chiefs will win at home, but neither team plays all that well. Lots and lots of running and lots and lots of pathetic arm tackles all the way around. Final Score: Chiefs 31 - Texans 24

Jacksonville at Tennessee, 1 p.m. (Tennessee -6)
There’s going to be some sore people after this one. These teams hit hard, and I love it. Tennessee is my adopted favorite team, so I’m always a little biased towards them. It usually gets me into trouble at the sports book. Chris Brown look like the real deal, I’m a little pissed I didn’t pull the trigger on him in my drafts. I had him pegged as a 3rd RB in the 4th round in every league, but he never fell to me and I was stuck settling for my second choice Julius Jones…we see how that panned out. The Jags were my sleeper defense and I got them in almost every league. So far it’s working out wonderfully. Should be a interesting matchup, and I think that the Jags are going to win it. McNair is finally dinged up which probably just makes him more dangerous. So it could come down to which QB has a better day in the air. McNair has the pedigree and the supporting cast to outshine Leftwich and he will. But, the Jags will make a game of it. Final Score: Titans 17 - Jags 16

New Orleans at St. Louis, 1 p.m. (St. Louis -7)
I’m thinking you can say that Deuce is worth about 8 points then. I think the Saints are favored by about 4 if this were a neutral site game with him in the lineup. Take him away and play it in the Jonesy, here you are. The Saints are probably the only team that’ll make the Rams offense look good. For some reason this defense doesn’t make many plays, and Bulger and company tend to give plenty of opportunities for it. Brooks isn’t good enough to win games on his own, he’ll shine in one quarter and fail in the next. That will be his undoing here. If Stecker plays well it’ll be a decent game, if not a blow out. I’m going to go with the latter. Final Score: Rams 27 - Saints 16

Philadelphia at Detroit, 1 p.m. (Philly -4)
I guess the bookies think that the Lions are for real. Sorry folks, they ain’t. They are better, but the Eagles are probably the top three in the league. And they are only a 4 point fave? Come on. You’re going to see Harrington running around, and a Silver and Blue D that just gets shredded. The Bears offense moved the ball at will, minus a few mistakes they win that game going away. Final Score: Eagles 30 - Lions 13

Pittsburgh at Miami, 1 p.m. (Miami -1)
Wow, I guess no one is sold on Rothlisberger. I am, call me crazy. And even more importantly, the Miami offense is abysmal. No shock there, but the Pittsburgh D is tough enough to really shut them down. I don;t care how good the Miami D is at home, they shouldn’t be favored here. I’ll take Duce, Plax, Hines and Ben to win this puppy in the Hurricane. I guess the $8.6 mil the Fins are getting will have to soothe their humiliation. Final Score: Steelers 20 - Fins 6

San Diego at Denver, 4:05 p.m. (Denver -10)
This ones a little out of line, these divisional games are tough and I could see the Chargers making a game of it. Its basically LT vs Q, and I’ll take LT in that one. I know the Broncos actually have a defense and are playing at home, but 10 points is alot to give in a rivalry game. The real deal breaker for me is going to be the performance of Plummer. He’s the proverbial roller coaster, and you don’t know which week will be an up or a down. With this secondary of the Chargers it’ll probably be up. High scoring affair though, should be fun to watch. Final Score: Broncos 34 - Chargers 23 I actually went back and forth between 23 and 25 about three times, so you could say I’m not very confident here.

Green Bay at Indianapolis, 4:15 p.m. (Indy -5½)
There’s nothing worse that a push in football betting, so I don’t understand why people hate half points so much. If you hate half points, you probably should be gambling on football. They tend to make it tough to bet on, which is the point, and that usually means the bookies have a pretty good idea of what to expect. I think they are pretty close here. Both teams will have alot of success on the ground. Thats going to be key, and I think the Edge injury is moot. Rhodes isn’t a huge downgrade from Edge, though he’s a little weaker as a receiving threat out of the backfield. Either way, Green Bay can’t handle this many weapons and they play things too straight up on D to confuse or pressure Peyton. Favre will play hard, but he’ll come up short. Final Score: Colts 27 - Packers 21

San Francisco at Seattle, 4:15 p.m. (Seattle -10½)
Seattle has been everything we thought they’d be in the preseason. Looks like the Alexander injury is a thing of the past, and Hasselbeck isn;t giving anyone much reason to fret. Hasn’t been great, but he’s done enough. The real problem is that Jackson and Robinson need to step up on every snap, but San Fran isn;t strong enough up front to expose that. They are good, but not great. If the WRs for Seattle play to their ability they win going away. If they drop balls and take plays off, then the Seahawks will settle for a 6 point W. Final Score: Seahawk 28 - 49ers 14

Tampa Bay at Oakland, 8:30 p.m. (Oakland -3)
Oakland in Primetime…Gruden Bowl…Yawn…This game is gonna be a real stinker. No drama, and some ugly football. Old versus older. Oakland shedded some gray at least, so I’ll go with them. Final Score: Raiders 17 - Bucs 9

Monday, Sept. 27
Dallas at Washington, 9 p.m. (Washington -2)
Do I really need to make the *Back to the Future * and I Love the 80s jokes? Aside from that, this is going to be a clash of styles, not necessarily by design. I’m sure neither coach wants to be one-dimensional but they are nonetheless. Dallas will throw 50 times, and Washington should run it 40 times. I’m guessing that the Redskins will have more success than the 'Boys, and I think that the Cowboys D might have slipped a little bit after seeing the display the last couple weeks. The loss of Arrington will hurt the Redskins alot and thats the one thing that makes me hesitate to pick them to win easily. Nonetheless, Defense wins over offense usually, and the Redskins #1 D vs the Cowboys #1 O tells the story. Final Score: Redskins 20 - Cowboys 17

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Week one 9-7, week two 8-8, I’ve been picking way too many upsets, and green Bay just killed me last week. This week I get back last years performance.
Sunday, Sept. 26
Arizona at Atlanta, 1 p.m. (Atlanta -10)

I’m going with Atlanta in this game mainly because Arizona just doesn’t have the D to contain Vick. Atlants by 10.

Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1 p.m. (Baltimore -3)

I’m taking the Ravens, but only because I’m still not taking Dillon and the Bengals seriously yet. That’s gonna bite me I the ass one day, but not Sunday. Ravens by 3.

Chicago at Minnesota, 1 p.m. (Minnesota -9)

I’ll be the first to admit that the Bears have pleasantly stunned me this year. That game they played at Green Bay was the stuff of legend, who’d a thunk the Bears could punch Green Bay in the face like that. End of pat on the head. No way does the Vikes lose to the Eagles and Bears in succesive weeks, not gonna happen, no way, no how. Vikes by 12.

Cleveland at N.Y. Giants, 1 p.m. (NYG -3)

I too was surprised to see the Giants favored in this game. Tikki must not be leading the league in fumbles yet. But that’s my read on the game, who’s gonna make the most mistakes, and history says the Giants. Browns by 3.

Houston at Kansas City, 1 p.m. (KC -8½)

See what Omni said.

Jacksonville at Tennessee, 1 p.m. (Tennessee -6)

Unlike some here I’ve never liked the Jags. Steve McNair and the Titans play a superior brand of football than almost anyone in the AFC, so I’m picking them to do just what the odds makers are saying with a win by 6.

New Orleans at St. Louis, 1 p.m. (St. Louis -7)

After watching the Saints Niners game last week, I can say three things with certainty. 1. The Saints fans are right to be diappointed in this team. 2. They have talent, they can play football, they’ve got experience. 3. They show none of it consitently. Where the hell is the leadership on this team. Me thnks new coaching is in order. St. Louis is going to win this one if only because the Saints will beat themselves.

Philadelphia at Detroit, 1 p.m. (Philly -4)

See what OMNI said.

Pittsburgh at Miami, 1 p.m. (Miami -1)
If I had to pick the last team to win a game Miami would be a the top of that list. That probably says it all. Pittsburgh by a bunch.

San Diego at Denver, 4:05 p.m. (Denver -10)

I liked OMNIs analysis of this game. I’m still going to disagree and take the Broncoes in a cake walk.

Green Bay at Indianapolis, 4:15 p.m. (Indy -5½)

Gotta go with the crowd here. Green Bay is a shell of the team it was five years ago. The receivers are midiocre, which limits the Favre factor. You folks know what this means right? Now that I’ve picked Indy, Manning will throw a thousand interceptions because, let’s face it he must hate me or something. Indy by 10.

San Francisco at Seattle, 4:15 p.m. (Seattle -10½)

I’m getting more and more impressed with the Niners coaching staff. They pulled the D-Line off the street, and we get a good performance and sacks, SACKS!!!, from a guy on the unemployment line a week before. The LB core is still tops in the league. Dorsey has incredible poise, the guy has taken what 10 sacks in two weeks, gets up and finds open receivers. I say all of that to say this. No way does Seattle pull off that 10 pont spread, they’ll probably win but just like weeks one and two, this’ll go down to the last series or so. Seatlle by 6 or less, probably less.

Tampa Bay at Oakland, 8:30 p.m. (Oakland -3)

I’m gonna disagree with you on this game. I’m taking the bucs, for petty reasons, but hey sometimes petty is all the motivation you need. Here’s how I see it. Get a great coach everybody in Oaktown gets fired up about, Al gets rid of him. Got a player who has been the face of the Raiders for two decades, and not let him play his last season in Oakland. Get a back who provided 1500 or more yards of offense, a passing and rushing threat, get rid of him too. All three of these guys are in Tampa Bay. Look for Gruden to pull an inspired game plan making liberal use of Gardner and Brown. I’m watching this game! Tampa by 10.

Monday, Sept. 27
Dallas at Washington, 9 p.m. (Washington -2)

Can we stop giving Gibbs and Parcells on air blowjobs yet? Great coaches make come backs, we get it. Dallas in a squeeker.

8

Oh no! Rudi Johnson would be a little upset if he knew people still think Dillon plays for the Bengals!

9

:o See that just goes to show you how messed up my CBS programming is :smiley: