NFL predictions week 4

In My Humble Opinion
1

Week 1, 9-7, week 2 8-8, week 3 9-5, I’m kind of wondering what my totals would be if I simply flipped a coin. In consideration, I’m going to make a flip a coin pick per week. I’m not going to let my dismal performance to date prevent me from entertaining you folks. On to the games…

Sunday

New York @ Green Bay
Favorite: Green Bay, 7, 44

I haven’t been able to make heads or tails of this Green Bay team. Since their home I’m giving this one to Green Bay but they won’t be receiving anymore of my confidence points based on the perceived weakness of their opponents. Lets say the Giants will beat the spread, I’d go with the under.
Philly @ Chicago
Favorite: Philly, 9, 40

Prediction, someone is going to surprise Philly big time this season. Prediction it won’t be Chicago. I’d take Philly by a country mile.

Washington @ Cleveland
Favorite: Washington, 3, 35

This is my flip a coin pick of the week. I like what I’ve seen out of both teams. Cleveland though losing last week, showed the ability to pile on some offense. Washington also is much improved under Gibbs. Coin flip says Washington.

New England shuffling off to Buffalo
Favorite New England, 5 ½, 35

And back to New England with a win. Pats beat the spread.

Oakland @ Houston
Favorite: Oakland, 2 ½, 42

I’m going against the odds on this game; I think Oakland is due for a let down. They performed brilliantly against the Bucs last week, but the Raiders are not that good yet, much improved over last year though. Houston upset and take the over.
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
Favorite Indy, 4, 42

Hell Indy is capable of getting that 42 by themselves. The key to stopping Indy is an aggressive defense capable of harrying Manning. I don’t see the Jaguars pulling that off for an entire game. Indy wins and covers.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Favorite Pittsburgh, 4, 39

Pittsburgh should win this one on the basis of home field advantage alone. But just to give a valid reason, Cincinnati has been up and down on the offensive side of the ball. Pittsburgh wins and cover, I’d take the under.

Atlanta @ Carolina
Favorite Carolina 3 ½, 39

As much as I like Vick and the Falcons in this game, I just can’t see them going into Carolina and coming away with a win. Carolina wins, but the Falcons will make it competitive. Say a 3 point win.
New Orleans @ Arizona
Favorite New Orleans 3 ½, 40

I almost picked Arizona to win this one but they haven’t done their usual thing of showing up in big games. I’m still not sure what to make of New Orleans either; the team seems leaderless and uninspired. Still they playing the Cardinals who I think may have scored in three games what your typical team does in one. Saints win and cover.

New Jersey Jets @ Miami
Favorite Jets 6, 37

You know that was such fun to type, lets call the game Jets 37, Miami 6. Unless Arizona appears on Miami’s schedule I won’t be picking them. I don’t think they’ll go winless, but I won’t be surprised if they do either. Fun fact Miami has scored even fewer points than the Cardinals.

Denver @ Tampa Bay
Favorite Denver, 3, 35

Tampa Bay just can’t buy any luck. They get mauled in Oakland and now face the Broncos. Should be fun watching Gruden doing Chucky impressions. Other than that nothing recommends this game. Denver wins and covers.

Tennessee @ San Diego
Favorite Tennessee, 3, 41

Smart money takes the Titans. They’re clearly the more complete team. Titans win and cover.

St. Louis @ San Francisco
Favorite St. Louis, 3 ½, 44

I had to think really hard on whether I’m making this pick as a Niners fan or as an intellectual exercise. I’m taking the Niners to win this game, not merely because I think they’re do, but primarily because of that shellacking they took last week. No team with any pride wants to be embarrassed that way. The Rams will be paying for the Seahawks victory. Niners win, over.
Monday Night
Kansas City @ Baltimore
Favorite Baltimore, 5 ½, 41 ½

This would have been my flip a coin pick if I hadn’t used it on the Browns/Giants. That said, I’m going to go against the grain again and take Kansas City.

2

In Hal Briston’s pool, I’ve got 32 correct picks so far out of 44, or about 73% accuracy.

This week, I’m picking 11 road teams to win – it makes me a little nervous, but I think only Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore will win at home.

Then I look at matchups like NE-BUF, NYJ-MIA, PHI-CHI and I tell myself that maybe this is the week for road teams…

3

I think Big Blue has a legitimate shot to win outright. The Packers seemingly have pass defense issues, and Warner has been solid. I’m looking for a breakout game for ole’ Kurt. And the Colts defense is orders of magnitude worse than the Giants. What, exactly, is the perceived weakness of the Giants? I’m curious. I don’t hear anything negative about the G-Men on ESPN, they moved up several spots in most power rankings, and all 3 sets of game announcers covering the 3 Jints games so far have gushed about the solid play of the offensive line.

Wait, ignore all that. Big Blue only wins when expected to lose. So, um, yeah, they suck, the Packers will crush 'em.

Huh? Giants/Browns was last week, and if you needed to flip a coin for that one, I’m stunned you are above .500 in picks.

4

If the blankety-blank Browns had won as I expected, I’d be at 75% rather than 73% accuracy. Damn Jints.

5

I wasn’t thinking about the Giants in particular when I made that comment. Only that in the last few years if the Packers were playing a quality team, I’d pick Green Bay. Now even if Green Bay has a relatively weak opponent, im really going to have a hard time picking them.

Oops, meant to write Washington there :smack: Gee taking this a little personally aint yah? I never said the Giants suck. Why I’m sure I must have picked the Giants to win at least once last year, probably, I think, maybe. :smiley:

6

Oh, gotcha. I didn’t understand before, but now I do. Traditionally, the Giants play both up (yay!) and down (doh!) to the level of their competition, so I’m well aware of that kind of tendency.

hehheh, fair enough. My comment on the Giants/Browns last week wasn’t implying that the Giants are such a better team, but rather that the Browns lost so many starters that the 49ers’ scout team could have beaten them.

7

I think it would be interesting to track predictions from week to week, but I have a hell of a time finding this thread each week. So, I was thinking, Stuffy, that perhaps when you start this thread each week that you would post a link to the immediately previous week’s thread? As long as you did it every week, you would only have to post the one link. I could backtrack along the links from there if I wanted. ?

8

Hey Omni, Hal, duffer where are you guys? Oh and anyone else too.

9

Good ideal [b[divemaster** let me try and find them.

10

Done.

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

11

I’ll consider myself an anyone else :wink: But my picks were left at home, where my computer is under repair. I’m at work, clockwatching. I’ll get em’ up by tommorrow.

Since I don’t have my complete list of picks handy, but I still want to play, I’ll give my insane upset special of the week.

San Diego over Tennessee

Last week I took Detroit over Philly, much to my regret, but I feel a little better about this one. I’ll discuss further with the rest of my picks.

12

Thanks! You’re good people.

13

Ok…ok…here I am. And here we go:

Sunday

NY Giants @ Green Bay

What’s this? My beloved Giants starting out 2-1?? Who’d-a thunk it? Oh…wait, that’s right…they started out 2-1 last year too.

No matter, though. With the exception of Week 1, last year was ugly even in wins. This year is looking much, much sweeter for Big Blue. They’re leading the league in takeaways, and Favre’s habit of tossing up prayers when under pressure should translate into even more pick-offs.

It won’t be an easy win, but the Giants’ll take this one on their road to “Surprise Playoff Team of the Year”.
Philly @ Chicago

Prediction: Philly will collapse this year, going on a long (6+ game) losing streak. Prediction: It won’t begin with Chicago. No Green Bay surprise here. Philly in a walk.
Washington @ Cleveland

I wonder if the pre-game coach’s conversation will deal with coping with getting pantsed by the Giants?. Well, both are performing terribly, but the 'Skins less so. Should be an easy Washington win.
New England at Buffalo

The Pats got schooled here last year, 31-zip, IIRC. But no, not gonna see a repeat of that one. New England will walk through this and set their sight’s on next week’s potential record-setting game against (appropriately enough) Miami.
Oakland @ Houston

The '04 Raiders are much closer to the '02 Raiders rather than the '03 Raiders. Loosing Gannon will wind up being the best thing that could’ve happened to them all year. Look for the D-line to get to Carr early and often, but possibly not often enough. Oakland in a squeeker.
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Ok…I gotta go to a meeting in 5 minutes, so I gotta step this up. :slight_smile:

I may be off base here, but I think the Jags will contain Manning. Jacksonville by 4.
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

Steelers in a low-scoring shutout or near-shutout.
Atlanta @ Carolina

Vick has a monster game, leading the Falcons to cream the Panthers.
New Orleans @ Arizona

Saints in a 4th quarter comeback win.
NY Jets @ Miami

Fricking sell-out Dolphin “fans” are unloading their tickets by the truckload, and they’re being bought up by N.Y. fans who retired to Florida. Consequently, Pro Player Stadium will be filled with green and white. As much as I hate them, I gotta give this one to the J-E-T-S.
Denver @ Tampa Bay

Geez, could the Bucs look any worse? Denver in a walk.
Tennessee @ San Diego

Tomlinson has his breakout game, running past the Titans like never before. Chargers eek one out…
St. Louis @ San Francisco
Favorite: St. Louis, 3 ½, 44

In pre-season, I called the Niners as having two, maybe three wins this year. They’ll luck out and pick up one of them here.
Monday Night

Kansas City @ Baltimore

ABC execs must be crying, having to air this dog. The Chiefs are nothing short of pathetic this year. The Ravens are gonna destroy 'em.

14

Hey, where’s SuperM0nk? He had such an excellent prediction last week:

I wanna know what’s going to happen this week!

:smiley: :smiley:

15

Hey c’mon, the guy can’t even spell Cincinnati. What’d ya expect. My picks the first week sucked so bad and the Bucs have played even worse, so I’m reduced to: whoever everyone else says is going to win will win. Ravens in a walk.

16

I’m BUMPING this to see if we get anymore prognosticators.

17

Ignoring my ignorance and picking anyway, but just against the spread for laziness sakes…

Sunday

New York @ Green Bay
Favorite: Green Bay, 7, 44

Giants
Philly @ Chicago
Favorite: Philly, 9, 40

Philly

Washington @ Cleveland
Favorite: Washington, 3, 35

Cleveland no, wait, Washington if Portis isn’t hurt or something

New England shuffling off to Buffalo
Favorite New England, 5 ½, 35

Patriots

Oakland @ Houston
Favorite: Oakland, 2 ½, 42

Houston

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
Favorite Indy, 4, 42

Jags in the upset.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Favorite Pittsburgh, 4, 39

I seem to recall the Bengals playing well against Pittsburgh lately. I’m probably wrong.

Atlanta @ Carolina
Favorite Carolina 3 ½, 39

Let’s say the Falcons, just because Carolina has been floundering.

New Orleans @ Arizona
Favorite New Orleans 3 ½, 40

Saints

New Jersey Jets @ Miami
Favorite Jets 6, 37

J-E-T-S

Denver @ Tampa Bay
Favorite Denver, 3, 35

The Shanahans in a walk.

Tennessee @ San Diego
Favorite Tennessee, 3, 41

McNair’s hurt, but not dead, which always works out well for the Titans.

St. Louis @ San Francisco
Favorite St. Louis, 3 ½, 44

Rams
Monday Night
Kansas City @ Baltimore
Favorite Baltimore, 5 ½, 41 ½

J. Lewis in a plea bargain.

18

Well, I may have only gone 7-6 this week (so far), but I must say one thing:

***WOOHOO! The Giants beat the Packers at Lambeau!! 3-1, baby!! :smiley: ** *

19

Summing up how I did…

Giants 1-0

Philly 2-0

Cleveland no, wait, Washington if Portis isn’t hurt or something
2-1 (shoulda gone with my first instinct)

Patriots 3-1

Houston 4-1

Jags in the upset. 4-2

I seem to recall the Bengals playing well against Pittsburgh lately. I’m probably wrong.
4-3 (I was right about being wrong :slight_smile: )

Let’s say the Falcons, just because Carolina has been floundering. 5-3

Saints 5-4

J-E-T-S 6-4

The Shanahans in a walk. Push

McNair’s hurt, but not dead, which always works out well for the Titans.

McNair didn’t play, which screwed my theory 6-5

Rams 7-5

Okay, 7-5 against the spread with a game to go. Not brilliant, but at least not miserable.