NFL Predictions Week 1

In My Humble Opinion
1

Hey everbody it’s that time again. The NFL opens it’s season tonight. Welcome back everybody who made these threads great last year, and I’d love to see some of those who waited till the last few games last year to jump in earlier this year. Before I get started a couple of minor rants. First New York is not New Jersey, it’s close but they’re really two different places. See here’s a map. If the team was playing in Vermont, Rhode Island or Conneticut would you call them NY? Of course not, they’re really close yes, but still not NY.

Next, again refer to the map. The NFC West has Seattle (WA), San Francisco (CA), Arizona (conveniently in AZ) and the St. Louis. St. Louis. St. Freakin Louis!!! If this was 1824, I could accept calling St. Louis ‘west’, of course this discussion would be moot, since I’d probably be in someone’s field picking cotton or something, but I digress. There are 1723, 1750 and 1200 miles respectively between St. Louis and the rest of the conference. What the hell? Reallign the realignment.

Lastly why or why do we keep having half point spreads. An after point is 1 point, a safety is two points as is going back into the endzone after a touch, a field goal three points and a touch 6. Is any body noticing anything missing. Nary a half point to be found. It’s a communist plot I tells ya!

Anyway on to football. Not as much analysis as it’s the beginning of the season.

Sep. 9 Indianapolis
6:05 p.m. at New England
Favorite NE. 45, 3

I’ll stick with the experts on this pick.

Sep. 12 Tennessee
10 a.m. at Miami

Favorite Tennessee. 37, 3

I think the spread is wrong in this instance. Miami is wishy-washy at QB, and loss their great back. I’d take the Titans to beat this spread. Over.

Sep. 12 Oakland
10 a.m. at Pittsburgh

Favorite Pittsburgh. 41, 4

I don’t know what changes Pittsburgh made to get the nod in this game. I’m going to pick the Raiders in this match-up. I think with Jerry Porter getting the nod to start, and with stalwart Rice providing reliable hands, this should be a good offensive game. Last year the Raiders played stupid football, and the coach lost control of the team, I don’t see that happening under Turner (I’m sure a Redskins fan will check into to tell me I’m wrong). Raiders. Over.

Sep. 12 Tampa Bay
10 a.m. at Washington

Favorite Washington. 38, 2

I’d take the Skins to beat the spread. Under.

Sep. 12 Baltimore
10 a.m. at Cleveland

Favorite Baltimore. 37, 3

I’m starting to see a trend, very conservative spreads this week. The Browns added Garcia and stability at QB, so I see some more productive offense coming out of this team. I’d take the over.

Sep. 12 Jacksonville
10 a.m. at Buffalo

Favorite Buffalo. 35, 3

When you know nothing, go with the experts.

Sep. 12 Cincinnati
10 a.m. at New Jer…er…York-Jets

Favorite NY. 42, 4 1/2

Jets, beat the spread, under.

Sep. 12 Detroit
10 a.m. at Chicago

Favorite Chicago. 39 1/2, 3

I’m almost sure Chicago gets the nod because they’re at home.

Sep. 12 Arizona
10 a.m. at St. Louis

Favorite St. Louie (well duh). 46, 10 ½

Sounds bout right to me.

Sep. 12 Seattle
10 a.m. at New Orleans

Favorite Seattle. 45, 2 ½

This should be a great match-up. Part of me wants to see the Saints take this game, if only so the pundits will stop giving Mike Holmgren blowjobs. You’d think he was the second coming of Lombardi; Sheesh! But never bet just cause you don’t like what you hearing. Should be one of Sunday’s best match-ups, you hear that FOX? Hello? Seattle. Over.

Sep. 12 San Diego
10 a.m. at Houston

Favorite Houston. 44, 5

That’s a whole lot of offense they’re predicting. I’d take the Texans to win and cover. Under.

Sep. 12 New Jersey Giants.
1:15 p.m. at Philly

Favorite Philly. 42, 9

Note to NFL fans in NY; build stadiums. I like the numbers here.

Sep. 12 Dallas
1:15 p.m. at Minnesota
Favorite Minnesota. 44, 4 ½

I see a conservative offense coming out of Dallas. Anybody get the straight dope on what happened with Carter? Vikings win and cover, over.

Sep. 12 Atlanta
1:15 p.m. at San Fran.

Favorite Atlanta. 44 ½, 3 ½

Unless you’ve been living under a Rock, or you’re a newbie to the boards, you should already know that I’m a Niners fan. So I’ll pause a moment so you can get your pinch of salt.

Ready? Good. Many teams are looking at their schedule, seeing the Niners and marking down win. That’s going to be a mistake for at least some of them. Rattay is no rookie, and we’ve got talent at all skill positions on offense, furthermore our swarming defense is returning virtually intact, albeit under a new coordinator. I suspect the Niners will use LBs Peterson and Winborn to keep Vick in the pocket and make him pass, which could be an advantage for the Niners, since Vick didn’t get a whole lot of snaps during the overly long preseason. Should be another great Sunday game. I’m taking the Niners in a squeaker.

**Sep. 12 Kansas City
5:35 p.m. at Denver **

Favorite Denver. 48,3

You’ve got to give the schedulers some credit for Sunday. There are some great matchups, especially in the late games; you can count on me switching over to ESPN as soon as the Niners game is over. I’ll take Denver to win and cover.

Sep. 13 Green Bay
6:05 p.m. at Carolina

Favorite Carolina. 43 1/2, 3

Carolina came out of nowhere, but now they’re a know element. I really want Green Bay just out of historical perspective, to take this one but I’ll go with the experts and take Carolina under protest. Over.

2

Stuffy – what exactly do you mean by “go with the experts”. The “experts” have set a line and neither picked the favorite or the dog.

What do you mean in the STL game, “sounds about right to me”. Are you picking STL to cover the 10.5 or do you thik the line is too tight to play?

against those lines . . .

IND +3
MIA +3
OAK +4
WASH -2
BUFF -3
CIN +4.5
DET +3
ZONA +10.5
SEA -2.5
HOU -5
PHI -9
MINN -4.5
SF +3.5
KC +3
CAR -3

Just in the interest of full disclosure, I would never advocate playing every game on a weekend. I rarely play more than 6, so some of those I’m really on the fence about.

I haven’t really gotten into the teams yet this year. I’m doing fantasy for the first time and have been putting a lot more energy into that.

Still, I’d say my favorite games here would be
DET +3
HOU -5
CAR -3
Maybe KC but its such a square pick, I have a hard time jumping on it.

SF gettign points at home is enticing. They haven’t proved that they stink and atlanta hasn’t proved that they’re good, but it sure looks that way for both.

Traditionally going against the SB winner early in the season is good, indicating a play on INDY. Also, with the new guidleines, I don’t think you’ll be seeing NE manhandle the receivers like they did in the playoffs last year. However, with Corey Dillon, NE has really beefed up their running game. No Play in the rec.

By the way, I’M FUCKING PSYCHED TO WATCH SOME FOOTBALL. NE is my team. Even though I like the ravens a lot.

3

We here in the NFC East will take St. Louis if you’ll take Dallas.

And now for my picks:

Indianapolis over New England
Tennesee over Miami
Pittsburgh over Oakland (BTW, Norv Turner still sucks as head coach and will be fired within two years)
Washington over Tampa Bay
Baltimore over Cleveland
Jacksonville over Buffalo
Cincinatti over New York Jets
Detroit over Chicago
St. Louis over Arizona
Seattle over New Orleans
Houston over San Diego
Philadelphia over New York Football Giants
Atlanta over San Francisco
Kansas City over Denver
Green Bay over Carolina

For the record, I make these picks based on absolutely nothing.

4

Since I’m not playing in any pick-'em leagues this year, I’ll join in the fun here.

Indianapolis over New England

New England always seems to start slow, fooling everyone else until later in the year. Manning needs a confidence builder for his team.

Tennessee over Miami

Miami’s season went up in smoke. They’re going to struggle; if their defense doesn’t step up it will be a long season.

Pittsburgh over Oakland

Duce Staley is the big difference. Plus, the revenge factor for the game 2 years ago.

Washington over Tampa Bay

Washington looks good through the preseason. If Brunell gets back to his old Jax form he’ll do well.

Baltimore over Cleveland

Ballmer starts slowly too, but Cleveland has too many question marks to call them for this game.

Buffalo over Jacksonville

This is a big mystery to me too. Depends on who actually shows up to play.

New York Jets over Cincinnatti

Cincy may be rebuilding, but the Jets have some connections…

Detroit over Chicago

Gotta go with Detroit, because I haven’t seen da Bears yet.

St. Louis over Arizona

Arizona may be a team to watch, but not yet

Seattle over New Orleans

This will be a close shootout.

San Diego over Houston

The Texans just aren’t clicking, and SD has the offensive edge

Philadelphia over New York Giants

McNabb to Owens until they’re stopped.

San Francisco over Atlanta

Vick can’t carry the team if his line doesn’t block sometime…

Kansas City over Denver

The Priest will be holding services in the end zone, as often as possible

Green Bay over Carolina

Only if Favre can avoid the rush. Carolina’s defense looks good.
If I were you, I’d bet against my predictions.

:wink:

5

That’s two people straight who omitted the Dallas-MN game. I, on the other hand, have no qualms about predicting a Vikings win.

In no particular order,
New England over Indy
Jax over Buf
Det over Chi
Bal over Cle (smooth lno’s lock of the week)
Hou over SD
Ten over Mia
Sea over NO
NYJ over Cin
Pit over Oak
Stl over Ari
Was over TB
Min over Dal
Phi over NYG
Atl over SF
KC over Den
Car over GB

If I get at least 10 of these right, then I’ll keep picking next week and actually offer reasons. Otherwise, I’ll withdraw and let smarter people project games.

6

The Atlanta Braves were in the West in the NL from, I think, 1969 until 1994, when MLB went to a Divisional alignment. Check some time and see how far it is from San Francisco to Atlanta latitudinally, LA to Atlanta the same way, and Pittsburgh to Atlanta across (not down) the map.

7

Why yes, Mr. Williams Jr., I am so fricking ready!

And now, the picks 'o Hal, every one of them a golden, immutable, lead-pipe lock:

Tonight:
New England over Indianapolis
If the “no-chuck” rule had been enforced in January, we would have seen a much different Super Bowl. However, it’s not going to matter this time around. There haven’t been any significant changes to either team, and there won’t be any changes in the result of this AFC Championship rematch. I like the Colts, so I wish I were wrong, but I’m not.

Saturday:
Tennessee over Miami
Yes, in case you haven’t heard, the game has been rescheduled for Saturday. The NFL powers that be have dictated that my beloved Dolphins should get their gridiron beating in before Ivan comes to town to make life even more miserable. Certain…ahem…“personnel changes” made this a hard time to be a Fish fan. Losing david Boston doesn’t help, either.

Sunday:
Jacksonville over Buffalo
Watch for the Jags to have a significantly better year.

Chicago over Detroit
The Lion’s road losing streak stands at, what, 24 games now? Nothing changing this week.

Baltimore over Cleveland
What can Brown do for me? Not a damn thing here. I’ll give it to the Ravens in a shutout.

Houston over San Diego
Repeat after me: Tomlinson is just one man! Yes, he’s arguable the best back in the league. He’ll probably make his 2,000 yards. But the team itself is simply not capable of putting together more than five wins this season, tops. Fun fact: Number of opening day games lost by the Texans? Zero.

Seattle over New Orleans
Seahawks are making it deep into the playoffs this year. Here’s their first step, in what’ll be a squash match.

N.Y. Jets over Cincinnati
One of the closest games this week. Jets will pull out a 3-point squeeker, possibly in OT.

Oakland over Pittsburgh
Look for more of a '02 Raider team than an '03 this year. Gannon knows that Collins is breathing down his neck, and will really step up his game.

St. Louis over Arizona
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that fully half the players in my suicide pool picked the Rams this week.

Washington over Tampa Bay
I hate 'em, but the 'Skins will take the NFC East this year. Bastards.

Minnesota over Dallas
Sorry, but the Tuna was a fluke last year. Look for “How 'bout them Cowboys?” to become a expression meaning “Hey, look at the losers”.

N.Y. Giants over Philadelphia
Ahhh, here’s where I cash in. It seems like very few “experts” can see desperation and an impending implosion even while staring it right in the face. While my Giants will only be pulling out an 8-8 year, that’s still better than the 6-10 season facing football’s most overrated team.

Atlanta over San Francisco
Speaking of implosions, how’s your cap numbers doing, San Fran? Ye-ouch, this is one amazingly mismanaged team. Still, they do have that number one pick to look forward to next April.

Denver over Kansas City
Watch the all-offense express run through this one. This could possibly pull up football’s first 4-digit total score.

Monday:
Carolina over Green Bay
Get your back-up prepped, Packers. Farve ain’t making through another season. The Panthers proved themselves last year, and they’ve only made improvements.

Note: All arrogance and wild predictions should be taken very lightly. Except for the Eagles. They will suck ass this year.

8

Oh Hell yeah–I am ready!
NFL week 1 Here goes nothing…

Thursday night
Indy over New England

I can see the Pats having a monster season, but I can’t see the Colts giving up this game. First of all, the officials will certainly be throwing flags if Belicheck’s defenders get too feisty (is there anyone the new emphasis on the rules will help more than Marvin Harrison?) Secondly, Manning & co. have something to prove after last year’s debacle. I know New England has owned the Colts in the past. I know the weather looks bad (Brand-new Gillette Stadium has high-tech drainage systems!) But I think Payton Manning puts up tonight, and rabid New Englanders shut up…at least for a week.

Saturday 1pm
Tennessee over Miami

This game was just moved up to Saturday to accommodate the threat of hurricane Ivan. Maybe the Devil Rays are paying attention. After losing their 2 biggest offensive weapons, Miami is a mess & the Titans are tough tough tough! Is anyone else sick of hearing how tough Steve McNair is? Tough or not, McNair is great, the Dolphins are not.

Sunday 1pm
Baltimore over Cleveland

You’ll remember Jamal Lewis telling his friends “I’m going to set the single game rushing record today” last year, and then doing it. That was because the Ravens were playing the Browns. Assuming Lewis isn’t arrested, he’ll run riot over the Browns. Baltimore retains possession of the ball for something like 57 minutes & win big.

St. Louis over Arizona

Wow, I took all road teams so far, but not here. The Cardinals will have to show me they can win on the road before I pick them. St. Louis is on the way down, but my 8-year-old Godson’s PAL team can stop the Cardinals offense.

NY Jets over Cincinnati

In Chad I trust. Well, not just Chad, but Donnie Henderson’s defensive schemes make it exciting to watch NY play D again. I even heard a rumor that he taught them how to tackle the guy with the ball. Carson Palmer may be great someday, & I’m a Rudi Johnson fan, but they don’t get it done here.

Detroit Over Chicago

I remember watching the hapless Joey Harrington throw 4 TDs against the Cardinals on opening day last season. Maybe he’s great in season openers? Ever since they re-modeled Solider Field, Da Bears have no home field advantage. When your stadium is that ugly, it can’t be an advantage.

Buffalo over Jacksonville

It’s still pretty cold up there in Buffalo, and I’m not going on much more than that. The Jags look pretty good this year, but this is the type of game they lose. Provided Coach Del Rio keeps battle-axes out of the locker room, the season will get better from here.

Pittsburgh over Oakland

But how long till the rookie takes the reigns at QB for the Steelers? How much longer will it take Kerry Collins to take them for the Raiders? I think a big Pittsburgh defender (Kendrell Bell, perhaps?) hits Rich Gannon really hard and Kerry takes over in week 2. Oakland has got to be better than they were last year, right? Anyway, give it to the home team with a nice looking stadium. I wonder if John Kerry is a Steelers fan? I know if my rich wife had a football stadium named after her, I’d root for them.

Washington over Tampa Bay

The magic of Gibbs Racing returns to the Skins…So does a pretty good running back. A Protected QB? A power run-first offense? My Giant fan friends will be longing for the days of Redskins who head-butt walls to celebrate. They’ll also be rooting for Chris Simms to take over the QB job in Tampa. That won’t happen anytime soon, but Giants fans should get used to disappointment this year. Ummm….where was I? ‘Skins win. Big. Get excited Washington fans, it’s been a long time since you’ve been able to.

Houston over San Deigo

I won’t be surprised if Houston turns out to be that surprise team that comes out of nowhere. Actually, if I’m not surprised, then they really can’t be considered a surprise team, at least not to me. Nobody beats the Texans on opening day…really! The Chargers won’t start. Who wants to see the Chargers can go 0-16? I think we’ll be discussing the possibility a few weeks from now.

Seattle over New Orleans

Hasselbeck=NFL MVP candidate. You heard it here first. Also, watch the Seahawk’s secondary make the Saints look silly.

Sunday 4:15 pm
Atlanta over San Francisco

What makes me think the Falcons can walk in to San Fran & beat the Niners? Well, nothing really…it’s a hunch. Sorry Stuffy. The 49ers don’t have an answer for Atlanta’s super-star…the incomparable Alge Crumpler! That being said, I’m a huge Julian Peterson fan (my fantasy league uses individual defensive players & I’m expecting big things out of him) but I think they’ll fall prey to Vick’s running around. Vick will be the best player in football until he hurts himself (pick a week 4? 5?) but until then, he’ll be jonesin’ for this one.

Minnesota over Dallas

But I’ll still root for Vinny from Elmont.

Philadelphia over Giants

9 points? Be honest, you wouldn’t pick this game with 20 points, would you? The Eagles look stacked & the Giants…don’t. Kurt Warner leaves this one seeing stars. I wish the best for the G-Men, but this season is going to be tough. Bright spots for Big Blue would be the return of Shockey & the debut of Carlos Emmons, stolen from these very Eagles. If you look really closely, you might see something positive from the Giants this game. But a blind man can see the Eagles have got it going on. That being said, I’d like to state for the record that I’m not that impressed with the Jevon Kearse signing. Even if he sacks Warner 4 times.

Denver over Kansas City

But I’m probably wrong…this could go either way. It’ll be a great game to watch, but I’ll go with the home team (no ugly stadium=home field advantage, see how it works?) I’m betting that Mr. Bailey lives up to his “Shut Down Corner” title & makes things difficult for the passing game. The Broncs will stack it against Priest & squeak away with a win

Monday Night
Green Bay over Carolina

Not that I’m disrespecting last year’s Super Bowl teams…but I learned a lesson last year, Favre can do anything on Monday night, no matter what. That includes leading his team to a victory over the NFC Champions. The Pack will murderize them, leaving Green Bay fans to lament that fateful 4th & 28 from last year’s playoff game. I’ll take the over on that one as well.

My office pool doesn’t use point spreads, but I’ll try to pay more attention to the lines next time. Sorry to rip on Blue, Hal. Some of my best friends are Giants fans. Happy Football, everybody.
Disclaimer: My opinons & predictions & trashing of any teams are for entertainmant purposes only, and they usually don’t work well for that either.

9

Not to steal thunder from this thread, but I figure some of you might be interested in posting here and playing in the SDMB pick 'em and survival leagues I set up.

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=5250629

Those leagues shouldn’t take away from this thread - it’s still cool to post explanations and such - it would just make it easier to track how accurate everyone was, crown a winner at the end of the year, etc.

10

Oops! That’s what I get for cutting and pasting from the previous reply.

I’m going to go with a Dallas surprise. The Tuna can make the right game moves.

11

I expect all of you to eat your crow and like it when the Browns beat the rats in the opener in a stunning upset.

I’ll follow up on this in a few days. :slight_smile:

12

And I’ll be serving up crow for those picking Atlanta. Vick is great but he’s one man against eleven. Cooking options are yours to choose. :smiley:

13

So, you’ve got no problem betting me a grand they won’t go 8-8, right? I’m giving you a whole two games.

14

Um…

go Chargers?

15

Well, ya see, while I would have no problem at all relieving you of a cool grand, my loving wife and I don’t see eye-to-eye on this matter. So, lucky you, you get to keep your cash.

Cop-out?? What cop-out??

16

Man…that was a great game. Not the result I was looking for, but a hell of a game to watch. I am psyched for this season.

Season picks so far: 0-1. That’s a .000 percentage on the year. Ugh

17

What Andy said. Seems we all picked the Thursday night game wrong.

18

I love this tradition, I’ll be back tomorrow mid-day with my run down, and maybe, if I’m really into it I’ll jump over to the Fantasy Football thread for a run down there too. I hope some of you will pop in for my asinine commentary and predictions. I’m going to miss bashing Kordell every week though…damn, if I ever was dead on about something from the outset this was it.

Great job getting her started.

19

My kingdom for a Gazoo sighting…

20

Speak for yourself…I’m sporting a sweet, sweet 1.000 percentage. :smiley: