Hey where’s OMNI you promised us picks, and where’s biggirls “irrational girlie” picks. Pepperland girl, Denver’s playing tommorrow.
I’m not going to pick all the games this week, since it’s already two games in and I know that the Colts lost and the Titans hammered the Dolphins (expected). But I’ll still mention a couple and toss out an idea for another thread.
Chargers at Texans
Texans have been perfect so far in openers (remember, Dolphins fans?) The Chargers have got to be down given the QB controversy and how bad they sucked last year. This is where upsets come from, but not this time.
Texans cover and under.
Buccaneers at Skins
The whole city has been waiting for this game since the day the Saviour returned. But Gibbs isn’t that quick out of the gate and the team he inherited doesn’t have the beef he’s used to. I’m going to take my hometown favorite in a minor road uspet.
Bucs and under.
Ravens at the Browns
I’m going with the birds on this one, plus the over.
Favorite Baltimore. 37, 3
I’m starting to see a trend, very conservative spreads this week. The Browns added Garcia and stability at QB, so I see some more productive offense coming out of this team. I’d take the over.
Bengals at Jets
I like the Bengals’ chances to improve a bit more this year, but I think the Jets we’ll confuse Carson Palmer in his debut. I’m assuming that the Chad is fully back and comfortable.
Jets win, Cats cover, under.
Lions at Bears
I’ll take the Lions here, just for fun.
Lions, under.
Hawks at New Orleans.
I don’t buy into the whole Seahawks thing yet. The Saints usually start strong before they go in the tank, but they also seem to play better on the road. I’ll take the chance.
Saints and over.
Cowboys at Vikings
I’m picking the Vikes on sentiment (I really don’t like Parcells) and the fact that the Cowboys have Methuselah at QB.
Vikes straight up, Boys’ defense keeps it tight to beat the spread and under.
One more, with Stuffy’s team:
Let’s take the Niners to beat the Dirty Birds at home.
49ers and over.
That’s already too much thought for me for one day.
Anyway, even if you skipped all the rest, I’m considering starting a “preseason” analysis of the Bucs. Since I’m in the Tampa Bay area they’re who I hear the most about and who I of course care the most about. If I did that would some of you also analyze your teams (strengths, weakenesses, realistic season expectations)?
Count me in.
Indianapolis at New EnglandNE by 3
I’ll stick with the experts on this pick.
Sep. 12 Tennessee
10 a.m. at Miami
Favorite Tennessee. 37, 3
I think the spread is wrong in this instance. Miami is wishy-washy at QB, and loss their great back. I’d take the Titans to beat this spread. Over.
Sep. 12 Oakland
10 a.m. at Pittsburgh
Favorite Pittsburgh. 41, 4
I don’t know what changes Pittsburgh made to get the nod in this game. I’m going to pick the Raiders in this match-up. I think with Jerry Porter getting the nod to start, and with stalwart Rice providing reliable hands, this should be a good offensive game. Last year the Raiders played stupid football, and the coach lost control of the team, I don’t see that happening under Turner (I’m sure a Redskins fan will check into to tell me I’m wrong). Raiders. Over.
Sep. 12 Tampa Bay
10 a.m. at Washington
Favorite Washington. 38, 2
I’d take the Skins to beat the spread. Under.
Sep. 12 Baltimore
10 a.m. at Cleveland
Favorite Baltimore. 37, 3
I’m starting to see a trend, very conservative spreads this week. The Browns added Garcia and stability at QB, so I see some more productive offense coming out of this team. I’d take the over.
Sep. 12 Jacksonville
10 a.m. at Buffalo
Favorite Buffalo. 35, 3
When you know nothing, go with the experts.
Sep. 12 Cincinnati
10 a.m. at New Jer…er…York-Jets
Favorite NY. 42, 4 1/2
Jets, beat the spread, under.
Sep. 12 Detroit
10 a.m. at Chicago
Favorite Chicago. 39 1/2, 3
I’m almost sure Chicago gets the nod because they’re at home.
Sep. 12 Arizona
10 a.m. at St. Louis
Favorite St. Louie (well duh). 46, 10 ½
Sounds bout right to me.
Sep. 12 Seattle
10 a.m. at New Orleans
Favorite Seattle. 45, 2 ½
This should be a great match-up. Part of me wants to see the Saints take this game, if only so the pundits will stop giving Mike Holmgren blowjobs. You’d think he was the second coming of Lombardi; Sheesh! But never bet just cause you don’t like what you hearing. Should be one of Sunday’s best match-ups, you hear that FOX? Hello? Seattle. Over.
Sep. 12 San Diego
10 a.m. at Houston
Favorite Houston. 44, 5
That’s a whole lot of offense they’re predicting. I’d take the Texans to win and cover. Under.
Sep. 12 New Jersey Giants.
1:15 p.m. at Philly
Favorite Philly. 42, 9
Note to NFL fans in NY; build stadiums. I like the numbers here.
Sep. 12 Dallas
1:15 p.m. at Minnesota
Favorite Minnesota. 44, 4 ½
I see a conservative offense coming out of Dallas. Anybody get the straight dope on what happened with Carter? Vikings win and cover, over.
Sep. 12 Atlanta
1:15 p.m. at San Fran.
Favorite Atlanta. 44 ½, 3 ½
Unless you’ve been living under a Rock, or you’re a newbie to the boards, you should already know that I’m a Niners fan. So I’ll pause a moment so you can get your pinch of salt.
Ready? Good. Many teams are looking at their schedule, seeing the Niners and marking down win. That’s going to be a mistake for at least some of them. Rattay is no rookie, and we’ve got talent at all skill positions on offense, furthermore our swarming defense is returning virtually intact, albeit under a new coordinator. I suspect the Niners will use LBs Peterson and Winborn to keep Vick in the pocket and make him pass, which could be an advantage for the Niners, since Vick didn’t get a whole lot of snaps during the overly long preseason. Should be another great Sunday game. I’m taking the Niners in a squeaker.
**Sep. 12 Kansas City
5:35 p.m. at Denver **
Favorite Denver. 48,3
You’ve got to give the schedulers some credit for Sunday. There are some great matchups, especially in the late games; you can count on me switching over to ESPN as soon as the Niners game is over. I’ll take Denver to win and cover.
Sep. 13 Green Bay
6:05 p.m. at Carolina
Favorite Carolina. 43 1/2, 3
Carolina came out of nowhere, but now they’re a know element. I really want Green Bay just out of historical perspective, to take this one but I’ll go with the experts and take Carolina under protest. Over.
[/QUOTE]
I’m good for about a 10,000 word essay on Why Andy Reid Hates Linebackers (or 50 expletives, whichever comes first).
Here’s we go guys, as promised. I’m a little later than expcted since I decided to actually go outside this afternoon and be active (shocking, I know) not to mention the occasional break to watch a great weekend of college ball. Hope a few of you get a chance to read this before tomorrow, and if not still have interest in learning how much of a dipshit I am after the fact…
Before I begin a couple of notes. First, check into the Fantasy Football thread sometime tomorrow for my run down of all the teams including my self-agrandising praise. Shibb, after this I’ll be looking for that thread you mentioned, I always interested in talking about my Bears since it seems I’m the only one, the media seems to have totally forgotten that theres a team in Chicago. Not that I think they should be hyped, just at least mentioned. Teams like Arizona, San Diego and San Fransisco are getting plenty of pub, while we get nuthin. Not a single Bears comment in ESPN.coms Sports Guy’s NFL rundown was the biggest slap in the face. At least make fun of Lovie’s name or the Spaceship by the Lake…
Thursday Night
Indianapolis at New England - NE by 3
Already happened, so I won’t say much. Went pretty much how I expected, though the amount of downs played with no backs by NE scared this Corey Dillon owner to death. Fun game to start the season for sure. Thought it’d be higher scoring, but I expected the Pats to barely win.
Saturday
Tennessee at Miami - Tennessee by 3
Ditto on the already happening, plus it wasn’t on TV, so I can’t say much. Expected the Titans to win bigger, but I’m guessing the Miami D hasn’t taken a step back at all like I thought they might.
Here we go, on to the good stuff.
Sunday
Oakland at Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh by 4
Anyone who’s read my posts before should know I love picking the Steelers to lose. No reason why, but I’ve always disliked them and thought them over-rated. However, I only mention it to illustrate how much I think Oakland is going to suck this year. I think Pittsburgh will walk in this one. I really think that the addition of Duce will solve the ills of the Steeler offense. Not to mention that the loss of Mularkey, who seemed to sometimes cause more harm than good IMHO. I’m expecting a huge day from the Pitt running game and I expect the Raiders to really struggle to move the ball. The entire offense is old and slow, not a combo that succeeds in the NFL often. Double team Porter and they won’t do anything. For the record, I’m seriously on the Rothlisberger bandwagon, wish he was a Bear. The pick, Steelers win and cover easily.
Tampa Bay at Washington - Washington by 2
Don’t put money on this game under any circumstances. Both teams are an enigma to start the season. I think Portis will take a step back this year without the traditional Denver cut-blocking schemes, and I don’t know if Gibbs will show any rust or not. TB is a shell of its former self, and the passing game is practically a non-starter. The D will be middling and the offense will be below average. I’m going to take the Redskins to win here by about a TD to cover, mostly on the back of home field and TBs special teams struggles.
Baltimore at Cleveland - Baltimore by 3
Let me first say that I think Cleveland will actually make some strong headway this year. Losing the QB contraversy and getting stronger stable of RBs should pay off. I also think KW II is a bit over-rated out of the gates, but he will be a very productive TE in this league. Will prbably take him a few weeks for that to happen though. Nonetheless, this is a bad opening match up for them and could retard their development as a team. Baltimores D and running game will dominate the game. Cleveland might get shut out and Garcia will get banged up. Take the under, but take Baltimore to win and cover on the road.
Jacksonville at Buffalo - Buffalo by 3
Don’t quite understand why Buffalo is favored when Jax finsihed so strong, home field I guess. I’m going to take the underdogs here. I think the Jags D will impress and stifle Bledsoe and the running game. I like what Buffalo is doing, solid on both sides of the ball, but I think the Jags are a step ahead in the same plan. Taylor, when healthy as he is at least for week 1, is better than both Henry and McGahee. Leftwich brings more versatility to the offense than does Bledsoe, though both are very mistake prone. The WR’s are about a push IMHO, and I expect Taylor to be the difference maker. Jags win in an upset.
Cincinnati at New York Jets - NY by 4 1/2
This totally baffles me. The Jets are favored, really? Pennington and Co should be OK this year, but no better than OK. Yes Palmer is a rookie, always a dicey situation in week 1, but the Jets D isn’t going to be very impressive, and I don;t expect them to confuse him enough to offset the massive gap in talent. Rudi, CJ, Warrick, and Scheobel are so much better than their conterparts its tough to expect them to not come away with a W. Bengals get it done…yes those words sounded strange to me too.
Detroit at Chicago - Chicago by 3
Another spread, based on the hype, which surpises me. I happen to agree with it this time, but if you listen to all the pundits Detroit should walk here on talent and potential alone. The biggest factor here, IMHO, is Thomas Jones. The guy has simply sparkled in the preseason, and the Bears offensive line can really get after it in the running game when healthy. Last year we were decimated by injuries on the line, at least for now, the O-line is strong. The Lions don’t stop the run either. Grossman won’t dazzle, but he’s not been prone to mistakes so far. Harrington has in a degree. This will be a close game, and I think the Bears will find a way to win at home. I’m going to take the Bears to win, and the Lions ot cover. A slight hedge, but I bet this game is an uncharacteristic shootout and a mistake either way will decide it.
Arizona at St. Louis - St. Louis by 10 ½
I think St. Lou’ is over-rated. I think Denny Green will make good things happen in 'Zona. I think Bulger is not going to be a star. I think Martz out thinks himself. I think Fitzgerald will end up having big numbers. I think Hambrick and Emmitt playing together again is funny and karmic for them both. I think Arizona’s D is pretty thin. I think Faulk is the greatest back to play since Payton. I think he’s done this year. I think Jackson will break out gradually, little by little each week. I think the Rams win and cover in spite of themselves.
Seattle at New Orleans - Seattle by 2 ½
This could be a really great game to watch. I hate to pick it one way or the other. I’ve been on the Seahawks bandwagon since last year, I might have been a year early. However I think Deuce is a frigging stud. I’m expecting a serious shootout here, take the over, and I don’t know which RB is more likely to get to 200 total yards. I wish I’d have seen these teams play a little more to know what the defensive matchups will be like. I bet the WR with the biggest day is the winner. If Horn out plays Jackson, go with the Saints. If Koren breaks out before Donte, take the Hawks. I’m going to take a flier and pick another road team to cover, Seahawks win with a late TD and cover. Call it the Haslett factor.
San Diego at Houston - Houston by 5
Remember what I said about Faulk? LT IS the second coming of Sweetness. I was simply frothing when he entered the draft in hopes he’d slip to the Bears. I knew he’d be simply dominating, to this day I hapily recall having him on every single one of my fantasy teams those first couple seasons before everyone figure out how great he was. I curse Schottenheimer every time I catch them on TV, has there ever been a more overrated coach? I don’t think so. No one takes great players and turns them into a mediocre team better. The Chargers have a knack for starting strong, but the Pamsey[sup]TM[/sup] issue totally screwed that up. Capers will smother the Houston passing game and is smart enough to find a way to contain Sweetness II. DD is going to break out to a huge start this week, leading me to Fantasy victory in the process, and Carr can get the ball to those WRs enough times to make this one a blow out. Texans win and cover.
New York Giants at Philly - Philly by 9
Philly will flop this year. I can’t tell you how much I’ll enjoy it. McNabb and TO practicing TD celebrations? Not exactly Montana and Rice. On the flipside, however, Warner has serious problems. Don’t know what he’s doing, but he wasn’t lying when he said he wasn’t hurt as people thought. The problem with his accuracy wasn’t an injury, it was just the way he throws these days. I’m guessing all the time he spent hurt cost him his grip strength and therefore his ability to hit recievers. He’s healthy now, but it doesn’t appears he’s gotten that accuracy back. I don’t think he ever will either. Eli might play some, and if he does, it’ll be even worse. I’m thinking some serious happy feet. I bet that the Giants D plays just well enough to keep them in this game, but they won’t have enough to win. Eagles win, but the G’ints cover.
Dallas at Minnesota - Minnesota by 4 ½
I’m expecting the Cowboys to take a step back. They did need to end the Quincy Carter experiment, but Vinny is not the answer. Their D is certainly sound,a nd will cause trouble for NFC East teams. However, the Vikings are better than every team inthe NFC East. The injuries to the backfied scares me, and for that reason I won’t be wagering on this, but I expect the Vikes to win and cover. Julius Jones will develop into a very good back based on what I saw in the preseason. I feel bad for Eddie, I really do, but the boy is done. I fully admit to many years of having a serious man-crush on him, and stubbornly drafted him year in and year out. But his straight ahead running style isn’t effective when you’re too slow getting to the line. He might consider shortening hiw pre-snap set to 5 or 6 yards deep instead of his typical 7-9 (which I’ve always thought to be too much for about every back).
Atlanta at San Fran. - Atlanta by 3 ½
I don’t know why more people aren’t predicting a major implosion in SF. Barlow doesn’t figure to be a workhorse IMO, and as much as I like Brandon Llyod (Illini alum, thankyouverymuch) I don’t think Rattay has the chops to turn in a 85+ QB rating. They have holes on D and alot of new players stepping in. Their division is weak enough that they’ll get some Ws, but I don’t see them doing much against quality competition. This week, I’d love to pick the Falcons to roll, but they have almost as many question marks as the niners. I have a major problem with how little time vick has played in the preseason. I wouldn’t mind as much if he hadn’t missed the bulk of his time last season and wasn’t still such a young QB in a brand new system.
Is it wrong of me to call for the complete destruction of the “west Coast” offense? Aside form the fact that no one actually knows what it really is and calls every possession-pass oriented offense “west coast”, how many times has it actually succeeded since the days of Young and Rice? Gimme play-action, misdirection, middle screeens, crossing pattens and flood routes.
Anyways, both teams are pretty thin on D and suspect on O with plenty of upside. Don’t know who’s going to break out this week (maybe more accurately “survive”), but I’m going to go with the Madden logic and take Vick and the Falcons to win and cover.
Sunday Night
Kansas City at Denver - Denver by 3
This doesn’t make any sense to me. Everything says that Denver will struggle this year. Lost the RB without a clear second guy to step up. Lost starting WR and TE, and haven’t found a reliable replacement. Not to mention that they’ve never really been a defensive stalwart. KC however is reloading a team that went 13-3…hmm, I’ll call bullshit here and take the road dog to win going away. Yeah, KC is thin at WR and defense and ae playing in Mile High, but Priest will be Priest and they win by 14. Who knows, maybe Gunther is all that after all.
Monday Night
Green Bay at Carolina - Carolina by 3
This is quite the insult I think, and I think they know it. Yeah, it’s Favre on MNF. We know this. Ahman is pretty good too, but have you noticed how fucking wicked tough this Carolina D is? Are you kidding me, that front 4 compares favorably with any that I’ve seen in a decade. I don’t know that Stephen Davis will be quite as consistent as he was last yea, but the GB run D isn’t the one that’s going to make him look old. Take Carolina every day and twice on Monday to win and cover. I love this one, and I’m putting my money where my mouth is.
Lastly, here’s some additional tidbits.
Survivor pick: Tennessee (And since that game already happened before I was able to get this post out I’ll make a second one, Houston)
Fantasy studs to watch: Preist, Carolina D, Domanick Davis, Thomas Jones, Todd Heap, and Steve Smith.
Lastly, a few of you may remember by annual Pick 5 pool. Pick 5 teams to win against the spread each week to win the pot, a loss or a push and you’re out of the money. Rolls over each week if there’s no winner. Anyways, I’ve decided not to play with the guys I was doing it with in the past since they are kinda dumb is how they manage things. I figure my money is better spent with a online sports book, and I’m going to do that I think with the same premise, except just me versus the odds instead of other people. In that vien, here’s those picks for week 1.
Carolina, Pittsburgh, Washington, Cincy and Baltimore.
I’ll wait til Tuesday to make my predictions for Week One. For some reason, they come out a lot better that way. In fact, they’re so good bookies just won’t take my business!
Not sure how the hell that happened with that first post, I recycled the markup tags and somehow that got stuck up there. Wierd, if a mod is feeling generous and/or bored feel free to delete that sucker.
Not sure why I’m going to try this, I pick football like Liza picks husbands. But the show must go on:
Sunday
Oakland at Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh by 4
The Raiders come out of camp banged up at linebacker and the Steelers are looking to establish Duce and the run, take the Steelers and the points.
Tampa Bay at Washington - Washington by 2
Tough one, Joe Gibs will win his homecoming over the ageing Buc and cover the spread.
Baltimore at Cleveland - Baltimore by 3
Bet with your head, not your hart, that’s why I (almost)never lay cash on my Brownies. Garcia an upgrade, check. Healthy (if paper thin) O-Line, check. Even with Lee Suggs listed as doubtfull the running games imporved. The season is new, all slates are clean, this is the time of year to stick your fingers in your ears and chant la la la when you hear the name Jamal Lewis. Browns
Jacksonville at Buffalo - Buffalo by 3
MaGahee’s been looking forward to today for a long time, even if he is listed as a backup he’ll see some playing time and find the endzone. Bills
Cincinnati at New York Jets - NY by 4 1/2
The kittys pass defence is just what Chad pennington needs to start the season with a little Mo. Jets
Detroit at Chicago - Chicago by 3
The Lions, with thw help of a dinged up Bear D stop the road loseing streak at 24. Lions
Arizona at St. Louis - St. Louis by 10 ½
The Cards have a long way to go to gain respect but the Rams are thin in the secondary. Rams to win but not cover. Cardinals
Seattle at New Orleans - Seattle by 2 ½
Not a clue, Seahawks
San Diego at Houston - Houston by 5
Texas will force Drew Brees to beat them but Drew comes up short. Texans
New York Giants at Philly - Philly by 9
How long will it take before the Giants fans start chanting for Eli?, Eagles
Dallas at Minnesota - Minnesota by 4 ½
Dallas is getting older in all the wrong places and the Vikes wait till late season to beat themselves. Vikeings
Atlanta at San Fran. - Atlanta by 3 ½
Looking for Vick to shine, Falcons
Sunday Night
Kansas City at Denver - Denver by 3
I’m glad this is the night game, it should be fun to watch. Denver traded Offence for defence but KC has enough firepower to make Shanahan wait another week for his 100th career victory. Chiefs
Monday Night
Green Bay at Carolina - Carolina by 3
The Packers dodged a bullet cutting Couch. If that isn’t the dumpest reason to pick a team to win then I’ll just have to keep posting picks for a while. Packers
Real time scoreboard:
Well, now.
I have nothing to add.
Good games with one remaining. I gotta give it to the Steelers who absolutey dominated Oakland through most of that game. Cleveland who had Ravens for lunch. Gibbs and crew for decimating Tampa Bay. I also gotta say that for a minute their I was losing faith in my Niners, they didn’t pull out the win, but it was a damn close thing, coming back from 21-6 to nearly tie it and send it to overtime. Just goes to show, we don’t know what how the dance is going to be until the music plays.
Hal Briston:
“Baltimore over Cleveland
What can Brown do for me? Not a damn thing here. I’ll give it to the Ravens in a shutout.”
AndyPolley:
“You’ll remember Jamal Lewis telling his friends “I’m going to set the single game rushing record today” last year, and then doing it. That was because the Ravens were playing the Browns. Assuming Lewis isn’t arrested, he’ll run riot over the Browns. Baltimore retains possession of the ball for something like 57 minutes & win big.”
Me:
"I expect all of you to eat your crow and like it when the Browns beat the rats in the opener in a stunning upset.
I’ll follow up on this in a few days. "
You can use any condiments of your choosing to make that crow more appetizing.
2004 AFC North Champs.
That crow will never taste good as long as it is made of Ravens.
Go Browns! 
P.S. Deion Who?
I’ll have a nice honey-mustard & a glass of Chimay Cinq Cents with my dish of crow please. Let this game be the first I eat crow with. As the season goes on, I’m sure I’ll get used to the taste. Congrats SenorBeef & Zamboni. Now give my J - E - T - S Jets Jets JETS some love
Congratulations on the win. The Eagles are currently as good as the Chargers. I’m sure that stat will stay the same after the Vikes give them a nice MNF-style pounding.
I’ll take mine with fava beans and a nice Chianti.
Helluva win there. I never saw it coming. I wouldn’t go calling for the division title juuust yet, though.
You just watch. Man, that’s gonna be a great game if this last week was any indicator of both teams’ talents.
So, how 'bout them Redskins?
I’m truly amazed at the difference that Gibbs has made for this team. Consider that little snafu where Brunell tripped over his center’s foot and fumbled the ball right into Barber’s hands for him to trot into the endzone with. That mistake would have killed this team if Spurrier was still in charge. But they came back to win. Gibbs has not only convinced this team that it can win, but that it deserves to.
The games against the Eagles are going to be very interesting this year.
Okay, so smooth lno’s lock of the week wasn’t right. But like I always say, if you’re right 52 percent of the time, you’re wrong 48 percent of the time.
Still, going into tonight’s game, I’m 12-3 in my picks. Let’s hope I don’t drop below 80% all season. And man, I gotta pick up that Detroit defense in my fantasy leagues… four turnovers, blocked kick, touchdown, sack, it’s like Christmas in September. I can’t wait until Minnesota gets to feast on the victory buffet known as the Bears.
“What?! Now you tell me!”
Anyway, that was some sweet picking. If I’m not mistaken, you had the highest pick percentage in the entire 1-On-1 Pool. I know you pissed off Big Daddy with that Bills-Jags pick. Good job!