Welcome to week 6 folks. Last week wasn’t such a good football week for me, I lost my fantasy game badly and my confidence league was less than stellar. My pick 5 went south (2-3), and the most frustrating part was that two of the ones I got wrong were the early games…games that the losing team scored garbage time TDs to just cover. Had Indy winning by 14, 13½ point spread, then inside of 90 seconds Cincy recovers a onside kick and scores a meaningless TD to make it a 7 point win. Not 5 minutes later the frigging Steelers score a TD and get a 2-pt conversion inside of 2 minutes to make it a 3 point push. That just ruined my day knowing I could have been 4 of 4 in the first round of games and ended up 2-2.
…and then there was the biggie. The Monday Night game. You may recall that one rabid Bear fan you all have a passing acquaintance with had a ticket in the 24th row straddling the 50 yard line. He had amazing seats, and it was in his alma mater’s stadium. So this chap decided to go down to the campus early, stomp around his old haunts and bounce from bar to bar in a extended pregame celebration. Let it also be know that this lad has a seething vocal hatred of the heathen cheeseheads from the North. You can trust that he spent a large portion of the day heckling and trash-talking any clown seen wearing dairy products or green jerseys bearing the number 4 or 66. Unfortunately the festivities became rather gloomy around the start of the 3rd quarter. Lets just say that beyond that my memory is hazy.
A few comments about the Bears. This bye week couldn’t have come at a better time. We’ve got some serious problems. John Shoop needs to go, I don’t know what this guy is thinking. Everyone one can see that this banged up Bear defense can’t do what it did last season, and the logical solution is to gamble and open the offense a little. I guess a little success has made him stubborn, too bad for Bears fans and players. Here’s what they should do. You take the bye week and make wholesale changes, if you’re gonna do it and salvage the season, its now or never. You let guys get healthy, and you work on extending the passing game. The one needed change is Chris Chandler as the QB. Jim Miller isn’t a bad QB, and he was the right QB last season with that conservative system. However he doesn’t have the game to stretch the field. Chandler is great at it, so now’s the time to do it. And you use the bye week to get him up to speed and get the WRs used to working with him. Dez white isn’t getting the job done, but the injury to Terrell makes yanking him useless. However, I think you need to make Robinson the #2 WR if they are going downfield. That’s his forte and Dez tends to struggle that way. You need to bench Robertson at LT, Columbo didn’t exactly look great in the preseason, but I think you have to gamble. You’ve seen what Robertson does, and its not good, even if it means you’ll have two new starters on the left side of the line. Defensively we don’t need to make many changes, just get healthy. Shoop has to understand that he can’t expect them to pitch shutouts every week, so as long as the offense puts up a few points and we can play with the lead once in a while, the defense will be just fine. That’s my evaluation. Its not time to write off the season yet, we’re still in it, and we’ve got alot of talent.
Anyways, on to the rest of the picks. There’s alot of No Line games, but I have a feeling that come tomorrow they’ll get spreads assigned. When they do, I’ll step back in and adjust accordingly.
Sunday Games
Atlanta @ NY Giants 1:00 ET (No Line)
I’m not sure why this game is off, Vick is out according to everything but the official report. In either case I’m pretty sure I’d go with the Giants, and unless this game comes out tomorrow with a huge spread I’d take the Giants to cover against a Vick-less Falcons. The only real question is if Johnson will finish the game or if Kittner will get some playing time, I hope he does because Reeves has been high on him so far. The loss of Shockey and Peterson could be a huge problem for the Giants, but odds are that the Falcons won’t exploit it. The Giants will load up the box and stuff the running game no matter who carries the rock, and the Falcons run defense has been softer than the stats show. Expect a slow ugly game with the Giants winning by 10.
Baltimore @ Indianapolis 1:00 ET (Colts by 6)
Jamal Lewis has found his stride and its turning the Ravens into a completely different team. It takes pressure of Redman, and softens the middle to give Heap chances. The wideouts are still hopeless, but they’ve shown that they don’t need them. Then again, they’ve had two strange primetime wins. In both they got all the breaks and ran up big leads, and in both they almost let the other team back in the game. It wasn’t a fluke that these teams got back in either, and if they’d executed the outcomes might have been different. Ray Lewis is likely out of this game due to that shoulder, but I won’t count on that until I see him in street clothes on Sunday. Now for the Colts, they’ve been less than automatic too. They’ve managed to scramble to 3-1, but in less than convincing fashion considering the talent they have on offense. While the Colts are improved on defense, they are soft on the run, bad news against this team, and they played up to and down to their competition week-to-week (must be a Dungy trademark). Both teams are banged up (who isn’t), but the Ravens are in more critical places. Tricky game, but I think I’m going to take Indy at home to win and cover as long as Ray Lewis is out.
Buffalo @ Houston 1:00 ET (Bills by 7½)
Can you hear Bledsoe’s mouth watering? Can you hear the Bills defense taking a deep relaxing breath? I’m sure its a happy day in Buffalo after the teams they’ve had to cope with so far this season. I suppose that could be a bad thing and they might take Houston for granted, but I don’t plan on betting it. Houston’s strength is their secondary and they might be able to slow the Bills down some, but not nearly enough to keep them in this game. Bledsoe is looking flat out surgical these days and there probably won’t be many TOs. The Bills absolutely must abandon this 46 defense, they don’t have the personnel to make it work. You can see how good its working in Tennessee. Unless you’re the '85 Bears, you probably shouldn’t even try it. If they just play conservative and blitz less often, Bledsoe will outscore the Texans easily. Bills win and cover here.
Carolina @ Dallas 1:00 ET ('Boys by 2½)
People must be expecting Carolina to being its big slide. But lets face it, the Cowboys aren’t exactly a sure thing with Carter at the helm. He could be Kordell Lite. There’s talk that Muhammad will be back in the line up, great news for the Panthers and Rodney Peete (god that feels strange to type). Here’s another thing I can’t believe I’m typing…the Panthers might be the best defense the Cowboys have faced this season so far. Looking at the records and the final scores, I’m not sure I grasp why Campo’s gang would be favored, I’d flip this around and make it 2½ the other way. The Cowboys are banged up on defense, so its not likely they’ll stifle Smith entirely. Don’t discount the fact that Smith is probably hearing DeShaun Foster’s footsteps, could have the same effect as the infamous “contract year”. Panthers win and cover, the Panthers might shot down the Cowboys offense entirely. Take the under.
Detroit @ Minnesota 1:00 ET (Queens by 4½)
Two of the worst teams matching up here. Talent wise its clear the Vikes are the better team, and my fantasy team could use a big day from Moss. I’m not counting on it, but I can’t see any way the Lions defense can match up. Both teams are off bye weeks at very good times. The Lions should really have a chance to try and gel around Harrington, and I think he’ll be successful against the Vikes weak defense, especially if Stewart has a solid day. The bye week will do one of two things for the Vikings, they’ll lose focus and spend too much time apart or they’ll solidify. I’m sure Culpepper wouldn’t mind some of that separation, but Tice really needs to sequester them and make them immerse in work and forget the press and the outside world. Sadly, I don’t see Moss and Culpepper fixing things, but nevertheless Moss could blow up on the field out of spite. Tough game to judge, and I think the winner will have a great chance to turn the season around. Frankly its probably a homefield disadvantage for both teams, if things go poorly for the Vikes offense, the crowd might tear them apart. If for not other reason than optimism for my Fantasy team, I predict the Vikes win but the Lions cover. Take the over for sure.
Green Bay @ New England 1:00 ET (Pats by 4½)
I don’t know. If I were a wise individual this is all I would say about this game. But, I never claimed to be wise. So here goes nothing. Where are the weaknesses. The Pats haven’t been able to stop a strong running attack, especially one with a fast back who can run and catch. Ahman Green is just that guy, and he might really have a big day as long as the Pack doesn’t get too pass happy after their MNF success. As for the Pack, they are really banged up in what was already a very weak defense. They’ll have virtually no pass rush unless KGB can fight through triple teams. However, Brady’s strength is the quick 3 step drop passing game, but the Pack would be most vulnerable to the deep pass. The Pack managed to deal with that short pass game plan very well last week, but they also got alot of guys dinged. Frankly I think the scales are tilted in the Pats favor, and unless there is a huge swing in turnovers they’ll probably out score Brett. Of course this is Favre in cold weather… Still, I’m taking the Pats to win and cover.
Jacksonville @ Tennessee 1:00 ET (Jags by 2)
The big three for the Jags are playing awfully well so far. The defense is starting to gel (evidenced by me grabbing them up in FF) and might turn into a formidable unit, they really gave McNabb and crew nightmares. All signs are pointing to a big Jags win here, so I’m baffled why its only a 2 point spread. The Titans are giving up nearly 32 points a game, and their offense isn;t picking them up. Granted the Titans have been tough as hell at home in their short history, especially on divisional rivals so they might make a game of this. If it were a 7+ point spread maybe there’s a reason to worry, but not this week. I expect the Jags big three to have huge games, and the Titans flounder. Jags win and cover, take the over.
New Orleans @ Washington 1:00 ET (Aints by 1½)
This spread seems a little low, but I suppose people are thinking that Ramsey is the cure to all of the ball coach’s ails. Two problems though, Ramsey was successful against a really weak Titan’s defense, and Steven Davis is likely to not play, and if he does he’ll be less than 100%. Granted the Saints defense isn’t exactly strangling, but they’ll score more than enough to make up for the occasional letdown and Ramsey won’t be able to work them over all game mistake free. On the flipside, the skins defense hasn’t lived up to the hype, especially the linebackers. Thats where the Saints are gonna kill them with Mcallister. Saints win and cover on the road.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati 1:00 ET (Stihlers by 6½)
I know that Cincy is going to leap up and nip a team in the ass this season at least once, and I have a hunch it’ll be a decent team you won’t see coming. Not that this game would be that, cause its a stretch to call Pittsburgh “decent”, however the rivalry factor makes this game a crap shoot. Unfortunately for Cincy, Pittsburgh matches up well against their strength in Dillon and Kitna is a crap shoot. Pittsburgh will probably have continued success with Maddox against Cincy’s pass defense. The fact that its a road game should give people pause after seeing how Cincy hung in against Indy, but that 6½ point spread is tempting. Anyone looking at the final scores of the Bengals’ would probably expect them to struggle to score here, but I’m going to take a stab and say that they score. Pittsburgh will win, but the Bungles find a way to cover. That said, I won’t be betting it.
Cleveland @ Tampa Bay 4:15 ET (No Line)
Another mysterious No Line. Holcomb is out, Couch is in. Unless his concussion is worse than reported, he’ll be in there. Unless I’m forgetting something, that’s the only question mark. I have a feeling that Browns fans should be very worried, just as all confidence is Couch slips (unjustly IMHO) the fan fave gets hurt for a month at least. Talk about bad news. Things haven’t been going the Browns way much this year, and things like that to become constant trends for either good or bad. The upside is that the Browns WRs are really coming into their own it seems, but their defense seems to be coming apart. Tampa however seems to be coming together in its own way, still not scaring anyone offensively, but they are at least putting points on the board consistently. I don’t see any way that Couch can get his game together without a solid running game against the TB defense that is hitting its stride. As long as this isn’t a monster spread, I’m taking the home team to win and cover.
Kansas City @ San Diego 4:15 ET (Chargers by 3)
This game will be great to watch, can’t wait. I really hope we get to see it in my area. These two teams are charging to the top fast and this could be a great week to see who’s the better of the two, and its a divisional game! I think its clear that neither one is a pretender, no matter what the strength of schedule says. Holmes looks flat out awesome and LT is no slouch. If Brees gets the chance to air it out some against the Chiefs defense it could be lots of fun. Really these teams seem pretty even, one great offense and a capable defense and another great defense and a very capable offense. I’m going to give the edge to San Diego because they are at home, have Seau and a defense that might slow down Holmes just enough, and lastly the Chief’s kicker is hurting. Chargers win and cover.
Oakland @ St. Louis 4:15 ET (Raiders by 7)
This is wild, I never thought the Rams would totally roll over. By all rights this should be a much bigger spread. I suppose the bookies and bettors are paranoid that the old Rams could come out of hiding at any time, especially at home against a less than dominating defense. But then again the Raiders are the best team in the league and are firing on all cylinders offensively. There’s no doubt that they’ll score plenty against the Rams weak D, but will Martin find a way to get the ball to the studs once in a while? Maybe, but I doubt it’ll be enough to make this a close shootout. I just can’t see the Rams going 4-12, but you can’t pick em this week. Raiders win and cover.
Miami @ Denver 8:30 ET (Broncos by 3)
The Broncos always seem to get the tough games at home, not sure why that is. Something tells me that the Broncos aren’t that good, and I have a tough time putting my hopes on Jay Fiedler. Then again, I have absolutely no evidence to back those gut feelings up, its just a hunch. However, I’m pretty sure that one of these teams weaknesses will be exposed this week. My bet is that its the Broncos. I think that Griese will fold under the pressure the Miami defense puts on him, he won’t make those perfect decisions you need against Miami’s man-to-man. Also, I think that Miami’s power running game will neutralize the speed Denver’s linebackers possess. I’ve got a feeling defense will dominate this game and it’ll stay close, so a big defensive or special teams play could turn it. Nevertheless, I’ll take the points on the road and go with Miami to upset.
Monday Night Football
San Francisco @ Seattle 9:00 ET (Niners by 3)
This spread seems a little low looking at the records. Its a brand spanking new divisional rivalry, so I don’t suppose it’ll be all that emotional just yet. Alexander seems to explode on Sunday night, we’ll have to see if that trend continues on Monday. The Niners offense hasn’t lit things up like you’d expect them too, but the Seahawks secondary didn’t exactly shut down the Vikings either. Both these teams are something of an enigma. I haven’t had a chance to watch a SF game all the way through so I don’t feel that confident prognosticating them. The niners D has held up well against the run, so I’m tempted to think that Alexander won’t dominate the game. If he’s limited every other facet of the game favors San Fran. So, I’m gonna pick the Niners to win and cover.