NFL Picks - Week 4

Well, I’ve decided that I’m not satisfied with the level of participation and smack talk over the last three weeks, so I’m starting the thread earlier. Part of the issue is that I tend to get drunk on Friday and Saturday like any self-respecting 20-something which cuts into most of my online time. I may even start this on Tuesdays in the future. The catch however is that for my Pick 5 pool, i.e. OMNI picks, we must use the Thursday spreads. They usually only shift by a point at most, so I figure its quite all right. I’ll be checking back in Thursday to finalize my picks based on any revised spreads. Hopefully this will give everyone closer to 2 full workdays to blow off while talking football.

Sundays Games

Houston (1-2) AT Philadelphia (2-1) 1:00 p.m. ET (Iggles by 20½!!!)
OK, Philly is going to kill them no doubt about it, but 20½ points on an NFL game?!?! They’ll probably cover, but I’m not going to bet on it. I don’t even know how to cap this game, the Texans don’t match up in any phase of the game. Carr will take alot of hits behind that line, and that’ll probably cause quite a few INTs. McNabb will have no trouble running, but perhaps Houston’s corners can at least slow down those long passes. My fear would be that the Eagles rest their studs when they are up 20, and play conservative. Granted they got burned in that Tennessee game, but this is an expansion team. I’m taking to Eagles to win and cover, but I won’t be the least bit surprised if they hold it to two touchdowns.

Dallas (1-2) AT St. Louis (0-3) 1:00 p.m. ET (No Line)
The Rams are going to win this game. There’s no line because of Faulk’s uncertain condition, but even if he sits, the Rams will win this game. It won’t be a blowout. Warner isn’t the player he was, I don’t know why. I’ve seen two of their games, and its not the lack of touches for Marshall which is causing the problems. Marshall was always big because they would throw on first down and he’d break big gains on 2nd and 3. The passing game would put the defense on their heels and Faulk would break a draw for 35 yards. The core of their problem is Warner. They say his thumb is 100%, and I can see no reason why they’d lie about it. Nevertheless his passes are ugly and way off. Even his completions are poorly thrown. He used to throw the tightest, quickest, most accurate ball. Now he does none of those. Some of his passes weren’t within 5 yards of their target. To be honest, he’s looking more like Quincy Carter in week one, than Kurt Warner. Rams win.

**Carolina (3-0) AT Green Bay (2-1) ** 1:00 p.m. ET (Pack by 7)
Yes, a win is a win. But lets face it, the Panthers are not a good team. The Sports Guy took shit for calling them the worst 2-0 team ever, well guess what. They were, and they continue to be the worst 3-0 team ever. They’ve not played a team which has a win yet. A whopping 0-8 their opponents are, and it’d be 0-9 if Baltimore hadn’t had a bye no matter who they played. But in all fairness, the Packers aren’t a very good 2-1 either. No defense, erratic passing game (as usual) and a dinged up and unreliable running game. However, at Lambeau they’ll quiet the Panthers. It won’t be pretty, the Panthers will make a game of it with their defense and just enough ball control. However Favre will make enough plays to win this one. Tough call on the spread. Packers win, Panthers cover, but I’m not staking anything on it…could be a push.

Chicago (2-1) AT Buffalo (1-2) 1:00 p.m. ET (Bills by 3)
These are the games I hate. My hometown team against my key fantasy player. I think the Bears should be favored here, but not by much. Their defense will make life tough on the Bills, and they should be able to score on the Bills defense without much trouble. Drew is a wild card and could continue putting up big numbers, but I have a feeling the Bears are pulling all the stops and blizting like crazy. Plus they’ll use the running game to keep him off the field. So far they’ve played 3 very mobile QBs, they’ll be really nasty playing a stationary guy like Drew. I hope they don’t hurt him. Bears win and cover.

**New York (1-2) AT Jacksonville (1-1) ** 1:00 p.m. ET (Jags by 3½)
This game seems too obvious. I hate games like this. The Jags have played well, and seem to be clicking on offense. They’ve had a bye week to prepare and the Jets are struggling and banged up, they’re talking about sitting CuMar so he can heal. The game is in Jacksonville and Fred Taylor is actually healthy and should shred that Jets run defense. Before I talk myself out of it I’m gonna pick the Jags to win and cover, it’ll probably be an OMNI pick.

Cleveland (2-1) AT Pittsburgh (0-2) 1:00 p.m. ET (Steelers by 6½)
I can’t believe the Stihlers are nearly a TD fave. Granted they are at home against a division rival, but the Brownies should be 3-0 against a couple good teams. The Steelers are different than what the Browns have seen, but what’s given the Browns trouble has been the big passing game and spread offense. The Steelers certainly don’t have that, and seriously, how different offensively are they than the Bengals? I’m taking the Browns to win the upset and cover, making alot of pundits look real stupid.

**Miami (3-0) AT Kansas City (1-2) ** 1:00 p.m. ET (Fish by 3)
This could be a tough game. The Fish will probably win and cover, but there’s something happening in KC this season. I was dead wrong about Priest Holmes, and I’d say he looks even better this year than last. Miami will probably trump the offense with their D though, and there’s little hope the Chiefs will stop Miami on offense. Big plays could keep KC in it, and that’s probably why its only a 3 point spread. I’m taking the ‘Phins to win and cover, but I won’t be surprised by anything here.

New Orleans (3-0) AT Detroit (0-3) 1:00 p.m. ET (Aints by 7)
Another tricky 7 pt spread. I don’t know what to make of that Detroit-GB game. the Lions can make games of it with big days from Stewart and a strong defensive front, but I can’t imagine them doing against a balanced team like New Orleans. The Saints haven’t exactly dominated anyone yet this year, they’ve won close games that could have gone either way against good teams. It’s a credit to them, but not exactly a signal of dominance. Remember though that this is the Lions. Brooks should have a big day, and Deuce will run wild. Detroit will probably move the ball some, and it won’t be a blow out, but they’ll cover 7. Saints win and cover.

**Tampa Bay (2-1) AT Cincinnati (0-3) ** 4:05 p.m. ET (Bucs by 7)
What are they doing with all these 7 point spreads?!?! Gah!!! I’m not quite sure why this is only 3 points though. TB is the kind of team that has always played to its competition, and Gruden was even guilty of it in Oakland. Doesn’t bode well for the bettors if it happens this week. Everyone knows how bad the Bungles have been, and Dillon is the only weapon. He’s not likely to break out against the likes of Sapp and Brooks, assuming they get healthy. One warning is the banged up offensive front of the Bucs, could give a potentially effective Cincy front opportunities. Bucs win and cover.

New York (2-1) AT Arizona (1-2) 4:05 p.m. ET (G’ints by 3)
OK, so I guess every spread is gonna be 3 or 7. Bastards. One of these weeks there’s gonna be like 3 pushes. I don’t trust the Giants, I’m not sure why, they just make me nervous. This is the kind of game they could lose. The Giants secondary is their main weakness, and Boston is due for a 2 TD game. The Giants haven’t exactly lit it up offensively, and they should be ashamed of that 9-point performance against Seattle. I might get burned on this, but I’m gonna take a stab at the upset. Cards win this one.

**New England (3-0) AT San Diego (3-0) ** 4:15 p.m. ET (Pats by 3)
I really hope this game is televised in Chicago. I think its going to be a great one to watch. I can pull for Branch and LT to have big days, good times. Had the Pats not let the Browns scramble back in the fourth quarter last week, I’d feel alot safer picking them in this game. Don’t know that the home field means much, but I suppose that dirt cut out could benefit the Chargers. The Charges are a weak 3-0 with that light schedule, and Belichick might really baffle a young QB like Brees. Pats win and cover, in a surprisingly low scoring game. Might avoid using it as an Omni pick for fear of a 20-17 final.

**Tennessee (1-2) AT Oakland (2-0) ** 4:15 p.m. ET (Raiders by 6½)
The Titans big weakness is the pass defense, they’ve allowed alot of wide-open receivers, and they seem to be playing a really soft zone scheme. That’s the kind of idea that Brown and Rice and Gannon will get giddy about. I’d guess that Eddie will have his biggest day of the year this week, and if they stand a chance he’ll need to. Ball control is Fishers only hope to stay in this game. In the end though, it won’t matter. The Raiders offense is going to really open it up this week and run away form the Titans, especially after having a bye week to prepare. Raiders win and cover.

Minnesota (0-3) AT Seattle (0-3) 8:30 p.m. ET ('Hawks by 3)
Hmm, this is odd. I’m not sure I’d have made Seattle a fave before the whole Moss debacle. Could this guy be any more of a shitbag? Its funny how I’ve gotten a few trade requests for him in fantasy football. Needless to say I’m investigating all of them. I’ve got to imagine that Moss will be playing this week. Assuming he does, I think the Vikings will get off the snide this week and upset the queerly favored Seahawks. But then I’m reminded of a guy named Alexander who’s lining up against a curiously solid run defense. The Vikings have slowed the Bills and Bears run games, but gave up a shocking number of yards to Lamar Smith…which team will show up this week? In any case, its gonna be another ugly Sunday night game. I’m taking the Vikes to win the upset, but I won’t be bragging if I’m right.

Monday Night Football

Denver (3-0) AT Baltimore (0-2) 9:00 p.m. ET (Broncos by 7½)
Seems like a low spread, I guess folks are really high that Ravens D still. The catch however is that they’ll be playing a team which also has a good D and will kill them on field position. Might be a really big night for Elam. In any case, I don’t see any way the Ravens can keep this game close as long as Greise doesn’t completely melt down. The Broncos will run the ball enough to keep the Ravens D honest and move the chains, and the Ravens are a nice team to be able to change up against. Broncos win and cover.

I’ve been hearing Boston won’t even be close to 100%. I’ve put him on the bench in 2 my leagues. You might want to take that into consideration. Both of these teams can blow up (in a good way or bad) any week of the season.

Did ya’ll know that the last time any team was given a 20 point spread was back in 93’? Go Eagles!

Oh, and out of the last 10 times teams were given 20 or more points they failed to cover something like 70% of the time.

(I read this all in one of our daily newspapers a couple days ago but don’t remember which one so I can’t back up with a cite.)

Omni, are these the current spreads you have listed? Not sure whether you did this offline and cut and paste after the hamsters came back from furlow. Last I’d heard the Bucs were 6.5 point favorites over the Bengals. I was intrigued on your pick on that one. You gave all the reasons that the Bucs might NOT cover, then picked them to win and cover anyway.

The Rams had a 17.5 spread against the Panthers last year. That was pretty damn big.

The odd thing about this Eagles/Texans 20-point spread is that the over/under is only 36…

Let’s see… the Texans beat the Cowboys, 19-10
and the Cowboys beat the Titans, 21-13
and the Titans beat the Eagles, 27-24

Therefore the Texans should beat the Eagles, by a margin of 20. I think that the bookmakers just got the wrong name in the Favorites column. Although Philly is at home, so they should of course take that into consideration for a few points.

Givens: my league has no salary cap and no charge for trades or waiver pickups. Also a 2 WR league.

With my starting QB on a bye, I have Rodney Peete @ GB, or I could possibly pick up Jim Miller @ BUF on waivers. I’m more concerned about this week than the rest of the season. Please advise.

Plexico Burress and Laveranues Coles have been disappointing so far, but not much available on waivers: Andre Davis, Eddie Kennison, David Patten or Todd Pinkston. Please advise.

I know very little about the NFL, so any “joke” recommendations are likely to be taken seriously.

Ok now that my team has a bye, I’ll dish a lil’ trash this week. Fortunately this week doesn’t have a lot of hard to call games like last week. So let’s get started.

Sundays Games

Houston-2) AT Philly (2-1) 1:00 p.m. ET (Iggles by 20½!!!)
No way in hell does Philly make this spread. This is the type of game where overconfidence will kill you. The Eagles won’t lose, nut I suspect Houston will kepp it within 10.

Dallas (1-2) AT St. Louis (0-3) 1:00 p.m. ET (No Line)
I’m not sure what’s up with the Rams either. On a day when Warner becomes the top rated passer in the books, he throws up his worse numbers ever, go figure. If this game were in Dallas I’d be tempted to pick them. Seeing as it’s in St. Louis, I figure the crowd should provide the margin of victory. Rams by a touch.

Carolina (3-0) AT Green Bay (2-1) 1:00 p.m. ET (Pack by 7)
I see the same problem with this Packers team as Omni; no defense. But I’m not going to discount the Panthers because of their opponents. They still have momentum. If it were snowing in Green Bay I might think this game differently, but I’m thinking upset. Carolina by three.

Chicago (2-1) AT Buffalo (1-2) 1:00 p.m. ET (Bills by 3)
I still haven’t seen a televised Chicago game this year. I’m tempted to pick the Bills, just because of the difference in passing schemes the Bills present to the Bears. But I don’t see it; I’m taking Chi-Town by touchdown.

New York (1-2) AT Jax (1-1) 1:00 p.m. ET (Jags by 3½)
The Jets really disappointed my last week. They were absolutely horrible, and you just don’t fix that I a week. JAX win and covers.

Cleveland (2-1) AT Pitts (0-2) 1:00 p.m. ET (Steelers by 6½)
I don’t like the spread, but I like the Steelers in this game. Mr. Girlie-beard won’t want to go 0-3, and the other Kordell should step up in this game. Steelers take the win, the Dogs cover.

Miami (3-0) AT Kansas City (1-2) 1:00 p.m. ET (Dolphins by 3)
If someone’s going to stop that Miami rush attack it’ll be KC. I think I’ll pick this one as another upset. KC by 3.

New Orleans (3-0) AT Detroit (0-3) 1:00 p.m. ET (Saints by 7)
Remember earlier what I was saying about overconfidence; won’t matter a whit in this game. Saints win and cover.

Tampa Bay (2-1) AT Cincinnati (0-3) 4:05 p.m. ET (Bucs by 7)
What only 7? Tampa Bay wins and covers this one in a cake-walk.

New York (2-1) AT Arizona (1-2) 4:05 p.m. ET (Giants by 3)
I see Omni and I are in agreement on this game. AZ upsets.

New England (3-0) AT San Diego (3-0) 4:15 p.m. ET (Pats by 3)
New England gotta lose sometime right? Might as well be this one. Besides, I haven’t called nearly enough upsets. :smiley:

**Tennessee]/b] (1-2) AT Oakland (2-0) 4:15 p.m. ET (Traitors by 6½)
Oakland would’ve been better served having there bye near the end of the season rather than at the start. I’ve watched Rice and Kirby a lot of years in SF, and can say with some confidence that they both tend to turn in sub-par performances after a bye. Additionally a soft zone defense can be very effective against the West Coast offense. The crowd at the Net should be sufficient to cause headaches for the Titans play calling. I’ll go with the Raiders, with the Titans covering.

Minnesota (0-3) AT Seattle (0-3) 8:30 p.m. ET ('Hawks by 3)
One of these days Moss will have that moment of clarity, if he’s lucky he’ll still be in the league then. I predict bad things for the Vikings even if he does play. I’ll go with the odds men on this one.

Monday Night Football

Denver (3-0) AT Baltimore (0-2) 9:00 p.m. ET (Broncos by 7½)
I’d like to agree with Omni on this one but I won’t. Denver is not that good, Griese isn’t that good. Ravens upset.

Looking at my picks, I notice that I’ve picked Carolina the Saints and San Diego to go 4-0, who’d have thought that?

The way this season is going, we might have a clear playoff picture a lot sooner than anticipated.

Lotta noise coming out of the league on a number of subjects (not the least of which being that Moss thing)…should be a barn-burner of a Sunday.

Bandwagon picks:
1. Eagles
Consider me officially sold. This squad not only is winning big, they’re having the time of their lives. Isn’t it great when one of the premiere teams in the league actually has fun winning? Another one of those infamous “insulting” spreads, which of course all but guarantees a big win.

2. Rams
Thinking they had an automatic win in the last Super Bowl was absolutely unforgivable (and had I known about that, I’d have never picked them to cover), but no 2nd-place team deserves to be completely out of it by October. How is it that The Greatest Show On Turf, which could be a juggernaut on both sides of the ball (remember the utter dismantling of the Packers offense in last year’s playoffs?), crumble so quickly? Thankfully, they have a pretty easy team to turn it around against, and here’s hoping they manage to do so.

3. Panthers
I’m a little iffy about this pick, but the “worst 3-0 team” garbage is starting to pick up, and I’m reminded of that Giants season where they mopped the Astroturf with the rest of the NFC, and still all anyone could talk about is worst this, worst that, blah blah blah. Listen, this is a squad that was 1-15 last year…you think anyone in Charlotte has a problem with its worstedness? And who cares about the playoff aspirations of a team that was 1-15 ONE FRIGGIN’ SEASON AGO. Geez, some people…

4. Raiders
Huh. Old this, old that, old, old, old…yeah, just like the Arizona Diamondbacks. Results are what matter, dammit!

5. Buccaneers
Have been overdue for a bustout season for about an era now. If they can’t even beat the 0-3 Bengals, I think it may be time to raise the white flag.

Was leaning toward the Chargers, but I don’t know how good they really are at this point. If they actually knock off the Patriots, count on them being on top of the list next week.

Bandwagon standings -
7 - Eagles
5 - Chargers, Saints
4 - 49ers, Rams, Vikings
3 - Cardinals, Dolphins, Panthers
2 - Patriots, Raiders
1 - Bills, Packers, Buccaneers

My first repeat pick vaults the birds 'o prey to the top, but it’s still very tight. If any of those 3-pointers go on a run, look out.

I can’t help you with the rest of the teams, I get bored when I watch other games. But for Eagles commentary, you can’t get me to shut up.

I don’t think we’re going to make the spread. I’m with Omni that Reid gets up a couple touchdowns and rests all the key players. We had to deactivate two people this week just to have enough defensemen for Christ’s sake. No way we are going into this game and laying it all on the line to trash a expansion team. I say Reid goes up a bit then gets defensive. If we make the spread, it’ll be because the Texans just handed us opportunities to score.

DKW Said:

Don’t believe it, if you don’t want to. But do this; compare Terry Kirby’s numbers near the end of last season with the beginning of the season. Also go look at the film from the last game, on at least three occasions Rice was covered by a Linebacker! Successfully!!! This is an OLD team, it’ll be tellling at the end of the season, when results count.

This is the second week in a row you’ve said that the Giants secondary is their biggest weakness. Are you watching the same team I am? The secondary has been playing absolutely incredible outside of one drive by San Francisco, which had more to do with the stupid prevent defense every freakin team in the league uses at the end of games than it did with the ability of the Giants secondary. The two Wills(Allen and Petersen) are very talented young CBs, and Jason Sehorn is doing a good job as a nickel guy. Omar Stoutmire is crushing anyone that comes near him with the ball. How could this possibly be the weak link of the Giants when their running game is in the crapper? I see the secondary perhaps the second strongest unit on the team, after the defensive line, and just barely ahead of the passing game. Why does this feel like 2 years ago all over again, when the Giants made the freakin Super Bowl and still didn’t get any respect?

As for last week, it was a trap game pure and simple. Crappy opponent a week after a huge upset? Thats just begging for a letdown. When you’re in a situation like that, any victory is a good victory.

This week, I think the Giants are going to crush them. I’m seeing at least 10 points, perhaps more. The defense will shut them down, and Collins will throw for 300 more.

Straight up: Bills, Broncs, Browns, Bucs, Chiefs, Eagles, Giants, Jags, Pack, Pats, Raiders, Rams, Saints, Seahawks.

Omni picks: Browns, Bucs, Chiefs, Pats, Saints.

I’m glad the Redskins have a week off to regroup. The defense is obviously still making the adjustment from Kurt Schottenheimer’s system to Marvin Lewis’ (remember where the defense was last year after 3 games, in the midst of a similar adjustment), but at least they have the personnel to make it work.

On offense, it’s time for Steve Spurrier to put in a call to Joe Gibbs. Gibbs could explain to him why, midway through his first season as head coach, he went from installing Air Coryell, to centering the offense around Riggo.

Given that the 2002 Redskins are much weaker at QB and WR than were the 1981 team (with Theismann and Art Monk), it’s time to hand the ball to Stephen Davis 20+ times a game. It doesn’t matter whether Spurrier likes that or not; that’s what they’ve got the personnel for. Here’s where we find out just how adaptable the Genius from Florida is.

And memo to The Danny: don’t blame this on the players, 'kay? Imagine if Snyder Communications came up with a completely new and different business model, year after year after year. How well would your business have done, Mr. Snyder? And how much time would your employees have spent trying to figure out how to do their jobs in a new way?

Guess what - football players are human too. You got stuck in a bind - you really wanted Spurrier all along, but he only made himself available a season after you sacked Norv. You finally got what you wanted, but it’s going to take some time before the Redskins function smoothly, and that’s the consequence of your series of decisions. Be a man. Take the heat on this one.

OK, here’s my revised official spreads according to Thursday’s Tribune.

Sunday Games
Carolina at Green Bay (12:00pm), Green Bay -7.0
Chicago at Buffalo (12:00pm), Buffalo -3.0
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (12:00pm), Pittsburgh -6.0
Dallas at St. Louis (12:00pm), St. Louis -11.0
Houston at Philadelphia (12:00pm), Philadelphia -20.0
Miami at Kansas City (12:00pm), Miami -3.0
New Orleans at Detroit (12:00pm), New Orleans -7.5
N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville (12:00pm), Jacksonville -3.0
N.Y. Giants at Arizona (3:05pm), N.Y. Giants -3.0
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (3:05pm), Tampa Bay -7.0
New England at San Diego (3:15pm), New England -3.0
Tennessee at Oakland (3:15pm), Oakland -7.0
Minnesota at Seattle (7:30pm), Seattle -3.0

Monday Night Football(s)
Denver at Baltimore (8:00pm), Denver -7.0
Now 10 of 14 games are either 3 or 7 point spreads, what is this crap?!! It sure doesn’t seem like this was ever the trend in past seasons. Its giving me grey hair, between this and Diplomacy I’m gonna be grey and bald by 30.

No big changes in the spreads from Wednesday, basically just dropped all the half points. Most of the spreads that moved, moved in a direction in favor of my picks, so no need to revise it.

The one point is that the Rams-Cowboys game has been given a 11 point spread. Its a tricky one since the Rams might snap out of this funk at any time, but as long as Quincy Warner keeps trowning the ball like he does, I’m not betting on them. Dallas covers he spread, but the Rams win. Won’t be an OMNI pick. I’ll check in later tonite or tomorrow with my final OMNI picks. Its a tough tough week based on those spreads.

dead0man, I’ve been scanning all the big sports sghts and no one is really talking about Boston’s foot. He’s listed as probable, and none of the experts are worried it seems. I’m taking it under consideration, and might avoid using that game as an OMNI pick because of it, but have any of you guys heard the same? Anyone have any links to news articles? Local papers maybe?

Shibbs, I wrote this post mid-day Wednesday, and then the Hamsters craped out in the middle. I ended up saving it to a file and re-posting it later when I saw the board was finally back up. Unfortunately the board has been up and down ever since.

I used the spreads off from Wednesday, they may have moved before I got around to posting the in the 12 hours or so between when I actually got it posted.

As for the Bucs game. Basically when I have a game that I’m not 100% certain on, which is the majority, I’ll take what my first gut reaction is, and then I try and talk myself out of it. That happened here, my gut says the Bucs will win. I came up with a few reasons why they won’t, but in the end I decided to go with my gut anyways. However, if my gut turns out to be wrong I’ll be the first one to boast about predicting it…sorta ;).

Lorenzo, this might be the only week where I might recommend you start Jim Miller. Green Bay is at home, and Rodney Peete is without Mushin Muhammad. Granted GB’s defense is bad, but its not as bad as Buffalo’s. Buffalo has given up alot of points all season, alot of them through the air. Also with Chicago’s defense all banged up against a red hot Bledsoe, the Bears should have toopen up their offense. Carolina wants to shorten games with the running game, and they hope to win games 17-13 and against Green Bay they might be able to. The Bears however are probably going to need to score to win, and against Buffalo’s defense I bet they can.

First, Omni, what’s with this Central Timezone crap? Now for my bad father bitch of the week. For some reason the girl has two soccer games this weekend. It’s bad enough that one of them is at 9 am on a Saturday, somewhere that we’ve never been. But the second one is at 2:15 on Sunday afternoon. Who the hell schedules kids’ sports on Sundays? Much less in the middle of prime football season. And my Bucs are in town! What’s a father to do? Well, I may go to hell for this, but it looks like I’ll just miss the Sunday game. If it were closer to the stadium I could go to the soccer game and then football. But I’ve got to get down there and find a ticket, get some beer, find my seat, etc. Oh well.

Now, on to the picks for the week:

Carolina at Green Bay
I really want to take Carolina in this. But again I have trouble picking against Favre on the lukewarm tundra. Plus Muhammed should miss the game. We’ll see how bad the GB defense is or how resurgent Lamar Smith is in this game.
Pack 24-21

Chicago at Buffalo
After last season, it’s hard to believe that Buffalo is favored against Chicago, even at home. Could be a big mistake but I’m going to go with the bookies on this one.
Bills 35-31

Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Again, I’m fighting against my gut. Yeah, the Steelers have owned this lately but Cleveland has really looked like the better team. Maybe it’ll have a silver lining and Couch will get knocked out so that Cleveland can play their better QB.
Steelers 30-27

Dallas at St. Louis
I don’t actually think the Boys will win, but it would be nice to pick against the Rams again. Here’s hoping that Faulk is back, I need a little (okay) a lot of Fantasy help.
Rams 28-21

Houston at Philadelphia
Never bet a 20 point spread. Houston actually has one of the stingier defenses around. I’m not sure why, maybe it’s just the weak competition. But if the Iggles get a comfortable lead, expect Reid to go to the bench.
Eagles 24-10

Miami at Kansas City
Miami has whipped up on teams this year. Their unstoppable. Their in the Super Bowl. I think that was the same line after the first three games last year. Lions by 28, Colts by 8, Jets by 27. Respectable, for sure, but none of those teams realistically had a chance against them. I think I’ll go for the upset here, KC in a shootout.
Chefs 38-35

New Orleans at Detroit
Saints are looking tough. Lions, not so much. Tough times continue as the Lions are thrown to the Christians.
Saints 35 - 17

N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville
When was the last time we were to week 4 in a season and there were no critical injuries for Jacksonville? All those brave souls that picked up Fred Taylor late are calling themselves geniuses. How long can it last? I say one more week, at least.
Jaguars 24-14

N.Y. Giants at Arizona
I’m still trying to figure out why the Giants only scored 9 points last week. It could be because I started Kerry Collins in Fantasy Football. This week I’ve benched Collins and gone back to my stud, Aaron Brooks. So expect Brooks to slip up against the lowly Lions while Collins goes nuts against the Cardinals. But not to Ike Hilliard, he’s on my other sucky team this season.
Giants 21-20

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati
The Bucs are never big favorites. It’s just not their modus operandi. But the Bengals are that bad. You almost gotta feel for Akili Smith. He seems like a nice guy. What did he do to deserve to get drafted by the Bengals? And his first start is against Monte Kiffin’s defense? They eat well-seasoned QBs for dinner. Newbies they like for an afternoon snack, with BBQ sauce. Only thing going for the Bengals will be Buccaneer overconfidence and a passel of injuries on the Bucs O-line. Bucs win but lower themselves to the level of their opponent. Start Martin this week.
Bucs 18-6

New England at San Diego
I think the Patriots are going to be pissed that they almost lost last week. But they also have to be a little tired. It’s tough to just roll through an NFL season, and Marty Schottenheimer’s been on a roll of late. Still I can’t see Drew Brees doing well against a secondary that’s been giving others fits. And Tomlinson could struggle against this line.
Patriots 24-17

Tennessee at Oakland
You gotta think that Oakland would have preferred the bye later in the year, this year it’s just messed with their momentum. But the Titans looked pathetic late last week. Unless the Raiders implode this week, they should win this going away.
Raiders 28-21

Minnesota at Seattle
Admit it. You’re only watching this game because you want to see who will yell at Moss first, Tice or Culpepper. Seattle has struggled but this is one they should be able to win. Shaun Alexander should have no big problems against this line.
Hawks 21-10
Denver at Baltimore
This one really should be OFF with Griese’s bad ankle. The good news for me is that Shanahan will have to rely on the run. Let’s just hope he gives the rock to Clinton Portis on the majority of the plays.
Broncos 17-3

I’ll check in later with Omni picks and others.

A couple of questions, please:

What is an “omni pick”?

What does it mean to “cap” a game?