Well, between the board glitch, and my golf day yesterday, we’re off to a late start…crap. Well, lets see if I can continue my success from last week. I climbed about 10 spots in the SDMB pick 'em league after last week, and was 1 game away from winning my Pick 5 pool. Unfortunately someone else was 0 games away, and the cash didn’t roll over. Well, I’ll just have to win the next 2 weeks in a row.
Let the bye weeks begin!
Sunday Games
Carolina at Minnesota 12:00pm (Minnesota by 6)
OK, I’m done busting on Rodney Peete for a little while. Granted they beat two terrible teams, they are still 2-0. Minnesota is 0-2, but not by much. I think Minnesota will win, and I hope they score a ton for the sake of my fantasy team, but I’m not convinced it’s gonna happen. 6 points is alot, and I have a bad feeling Carolina is going to be an enigma all season. They’ll keep games close they shouldn’t, and lull bettors tosleep before layingan egg the next week. The big thing this week is that Carolina hasn’t played a even mediocre quarterback yet. Culpepper is, and he’ll probably have a big day. Carolina won’t be able to focus on the run, and it’ll probably cost them. Minnesota wins and covers.
Cleveland at Tennessee 12:00pm (Tennessee by 4)
Another tricky game. I’d normally pick Tennessee to walk in this on at home, but that Dallas loss concerns me. While Quincy Carter looked better than in week 1, I noticed that most of his big scoring plays were on busted coverages. They had receivers wide open. I could score on the Titans like that. This Couch/Holcomb thing is perplexing too. If Couch comes back, it’ll be a change for the offense, and might screw up the chemistry for that first week back. But then again, it might make it hard for the D to prepare. Davis isn’t going to say who’s starting until gametime I think. The Browns can’t stop the run, which bodes well for big Eddie, if he’s healthy. this could go either way, but I’m taking the Titans to win and cover.
Dallas at Philadelphia 12:00pm (Philadelphia by 9)
I’m going to go on a limb and say that last week was a complete fluke for Dallas. They won’t get anything done this week against that Eagles defense, especially on the road. I don’t think the Eagles will score 40+ again (unless Dallas has alot of turnovers), but they’ll do planty to cover. The Eagle’s have the pressure and coverage to really make life hell for the sporadic Carter. McNabb is McNabb, and counts for at least 17 points on his own. Philly wins and covers.
Indianapolis at Houston 12:00pm (Indianapolis by 12)
Finally, Indy gets the chance to stretch out their legs. Houston is going to get steam-rolled, and the home crowd won’t help them. The good thing for the Texan’s is that their biggest weakness won’t be exploited terribly by the Colts front 4. However, if Dungy is smart (and I think he is) he’ll blitz the middle often, and stop any chance Carr has to settle down and play. All this said, 12 points is alot for a team that hasn’t looked impressive yet this season in any facet of the game. Again, I’m picking the favorite to win and cover, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see this end up something like 27-17 if Manning plays just average or worse.
Kansas City at New England 12:00pm (New England by 9)
New England is bound to struggle eventually this season, the trick is to pick which match up it’s going to be. So far they’ve really dominated teams with a strong power running game. I’m not sure things will change against a slasher like Holmes in that spread offense. I kinda doubt it considering how they handled Marshall in the big dance. Kansas City hasn’t really stopped anyone defensively. All the signs are pointing to this being a NE romp. If it were a double digit spread I’d be a little more nervous, but 9 points at home should be sae. Pats win and cover…its becoming a trend in a hurry.
New Orleans at Chicago 12:00pm (Chicago by 1)
This game is making it tough to be a homer. Alot of signs are pointing to the Bears being in trouble this week, especially witjh all the injuries on the defensive side before a potent offense like this comes into town. However, we’re one of the few defenses with the speed to handle Deuce, Aaron, and Dante. We faced a very similar, yet less polished, team last week and won in a game that shouldn’t have been that close in the end. I’m suprised we’re favored honestly, even hough its at “home”. I can’t tell you right now, that I’m not putting any money anywhere near this game. If the Bears offense comes out early and tries to be aggressive, we’ll win. With our defense beaten up, we’ll need to. But, sadly I don’t have any faith in our OC to realize this, and if he waits until we get down to open it up, we’re screwed. Bears win and cover, but I’ve got all my fingers crossed.
N.Y. Jets at Miami 12:00pm (Miami by 6)
The Jets are a bad team. I said it all last year and they kept finding ways to prove me wrong. For some reason the Jets simply eat up the Dolphins defense. I’m not so sure what’s special about Vinny, but that man-to-man doesn’t phase him. Will the fish make an adjustment? I don’t think that’s their style. How big a factor is Ricky gonna be? I’d say big enough looking at the success the Jets have had against the run. Miami wins, but the spread is a scary 2 field goals. Might as well go with the flow and say they cover too.
Buffalo at Denver 3:05pm (Denver by 9)
Hmm, everyone has already labeled the Broncos as one of the great AFC powerhouses. They have beaten two good teams with good offenses. Now they come in against the Bills and a red-hot Bledsoe. Buffalo probably won’t be able to stop the run, but the Broncos will only slighty slow the Bills passing game. The stats say otherwise, but I think that with two games of film to study, and something magic around Bledsoe this year, he’ll find a way to do what Warner and Garcia couldn’t. I’d take the over, but I think that the Bills will come up just short. The Broncos aren’t the great team they’ve been hyped as, but the Bills aren’t well rounded enough to beat them. Broncos win, Bills cover…can you believe it?
San Diego at Arizona 3:05pm (San Diego by 1½)
Why do I worry about the Cardinals so much? The last few years I’ve had this sickening feeling that every game is the game that Plummer breaks out and screws me. Thomas Jones isn’t that good, Seattle is that bad. I do however want to ask who saw that run in last weeks game where two Cardinal receivers blocked 5 defenders. Boston labeled a DB from the blind side and he crumbled into another Seahawk who was 2 steps behind. Freddie Jones rode a Safety into not one, but two would-be tacklers over about 15 yards. It was very nice. Back to this future match up though, San Diego has been playing really well. That defense seems pumped that they have a solid ball control offense to support them. Seau is going to trample Jones every time he dances behind that line. The scary part however is that the Cards managed to stop Alexander last week, could they do the same to LT? Either way, they’ll lose, and at just 1½ points, they won’t cover.
Green Bay at Detroit 3:15pm (Green Bay by 8)
Well, I’ve taked big about bashing the Packers. Its just so much fun when they lose. Well, the fun’s gonna end this week. While Norris division teams always play each other tough, regardless of record, this matchup is just to lop-sided. There’s something to be said for the game being the inaugural game, call it the Houston Factor. Maybe the Lions and fans come out really pumped, and get up on the Packers early. The tide keeps the game close, and maybe they win or at least cover on emotion. The problem with that theory is that the opponent needs to play along, Quincy Carter and Bryant Westbrook played along. I don’t expect Favre or any other Packers to play along. 8 points is alot in a rivalry game, but the Lions are just so bad. Packers win and cover.
Seattle at N.Y. Giants 3:15pm (N.Y. Giants by 6)
I’d have expected this spread to be higher. The Seahawks have been terrible, and the one strength they were supposed to have has vanished. Shaun Alexander…where are you? He won’t get on track against the NYG defense, and with that Seattle run defense the Giants should control the ball and limit his opportunities. Dilfer managed a nice game last week, and the Giants secondary is pretty weak. But after facing 2 very good passing attacks, Dilfer won’t scare them or find any big holes to exploit. Giants win and cover, and it won’t even be fun.
Washington at San Francisco 3:15pm (San Francisco by 9)
Grudge match, huh? While I think the 49ers are a bunch of Sally’s for being bitter about a preseason game, they will use it to get geared up. And if they are able to get the edge on the 'skins, they’ll run it up. So the 9 points probably aren’t too unlikely. The question is: Will the Redskins get the offense back on track? The Niner’s defense isn’t exactly dominating, but they’ve contained two very solid teams. Their offense has struggled, and the Redskin’s D is supposed to be very talented. Lots of question marks and possible outcomes. Maybe Spurrier found something in the preseason game, and from a scheme standpoin has their number. Perhaps the Redskins defense will step up big, and Owens will continue to get beat like a girl. Perhaps the Redskins are all smoke and mirrors, and Spurrier can’t account for the level of talent on NFL defenses. I really don’t know about this game, and I won’t be betting it. For kicks I’m gonna stick with the trend and go 49ers win and cover at home.
Cincinnati at Atlanta 7:30pm (Atlanta by 7)
Can you believe the Bungles rated high enough to get a primetime appearance? The Bears were better than the Bengals in the 90’s and it took a goddamn 13-3 season to get the bright lights. Well, it serves the league right, the Bengals suck and this game will be turned off by half time in most homes. Vick is good, but he won’t be the guy that wins this game. It’ll be Dunn and Duckett together. Lots of yards on the ground, Vick making plays to convert 3rd downs. Falcons win and cover, but beware of the 7 point spread!
Monday Night Football
St. Louis at Tampa Bay 8:00pm (St. Louis by 1½)
Cue the Hank Williams Jr. A Monday Night rematch of the greatest game I’ve seen in the last 5 years. I watched these teams face off at the ESPN Zone last season on Monday night, and it was frigging intense. However, alot has changed. The Bucs D seems beatable, and the Rams O seems stoppable. I’d probably pick the Bucs if Dungy were still there, but I’m not sure Gruden will be able to do the same thing. Either way, I think the Rams will stop the Bucs offense. However, Warner has been turnover prone, which the Bucs are very good at feasting on. Might go either way, but I’m thinking the Rams, on Monday Night, under the bright lights will find a way to find the magic if only for one game. They win and cover.
I’ll make the OMNI pick later.
I promise you will never see me pick this many favorites to win and cover again. Very very strange week.
