NFL Picks - Week 3

Well, between the board glitch, and my golf day yesterday, we’re off to a late start…crap. Well, lets see if I can continue my success from last week. I climbed about 10 spots in the SDMB pick 'em league after last week, and was 1 game away from winning my Pick 5 pool. Unfortunately someone else was 0 games away, and the cash didn’t roll over. Well, I’ll just have to win the next 2 weeks in a row.

Let the bye weeks begin!

Sunday Games

Carolina at Minnesota 12:00pm (Minnesota by 6)
OK, I’m done busting on Rodney Peete for a little while. Granted they beat two terrible teams, they are still 2-0. Minnesota is 0-2, but not by much. I think Minnesota will win, and I hope they score a ton for the sake of my fantasy team, but I’m not convinced it’s gonna happen. 6 points is alot, and I have a bad feeling Carolina is going to be an enigma all season. They’ll keep games close they shouldn’t, and lull bettors tosleep before layingan egg the next week. The big thing this week is that Carolina hasn’t played a even mediocre quarterback yet. Culpepper is, and he’ll probably have a big day. Carolina won’t be able to focus on the run, and it’ll probably cost them. Minnesota wins and covers.

Cleveland at Tennessee 12:00pm (Tennessee by 4)
Another tricky game. I’d normally pick Tennessee to walk in this on at home, but that Dallas loss concerns me. While Quincy Carter looked better than in week 1, I noticed that most of his big scoring plays were on busted coverages. They had receivers wide open. I could score on the Titans like that. This Couch/Holcomb thing is perplexing too. If Couch comes back, it’ll be a change for the offense, and might screw up the chemistry for that first week back. But then again, it might make it hard for the D to prepare. Davis isn’t going to say who’s starting until gametime I think. The Browns can’t stop the run, which bodes well for big Eddie, if he’s healthy. this could go either way, but I’m taking the Titans to win and cover.

Dallas at Philadelphia 12:00pm (Philadelphia by 9)
I’m going to go on a limb and say that last week was a complete fluke for Dallas. They won’t get anything done this week against that Eagles defense, especially on the road. I don’t think the Eagles will score 40+ again (unless Dallas has alot of turnovers), but they’ll do planty to cover. The Eagle’s have the pressure and coverage to really make life hell for the sporadic Carter. McNabb is McNabb, and counts for at least 17 points on his own. Philly wins and covers.

Indianapolis at Houston 12:00pm (Indianapolis by 12)
Finally, Indy gets the chance to stretch out their legs. Houston is going to get steam-rolled, and the home crowd won’t help them. The good thing for the Texan’s is that their biggest weakness won’t be exploited terribly by the Colts front 4. However, if Dungy is smart (and I think he is) he’ll blitz the middle often, and stop any chance Carr has to settle down and play. All this said, 12 points is alot for a team that hasn’t looked impressive yet this season in any facet of the game. Again, I’m picking the favorite to win and cover, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see this end up something like 27-17 if Manning plays just average or worse.

Kansas City at New England 12:00pm (New England by 9)
New England is bound to struggle eventually this season, the trick is to pick which match up it’s going to be. So far they’ve really dominated teams with a strong power running game. I’m not sure things will change against a slasher like Holmes in that spread offense. I kinda doubt it considering how they handled Marshall in the big dance. Kansas City hasn’t really stopped anyone defensively. All the signs are pointing to this being a NE romp. If it were a double digit spread I’d be a little more nervous, but 9 points at home should be sae. Pats win and cover…its becoming a trend in a hurry.

New Orleans at Chicago 12:00pm (Chicago by 1)
This game is making it tough to be a homer. Alot of signs are pointing to the Bears being in trouble this week, especially witjh all the injuries on the defensive side before a potent offense like this comes into town. However, we’re one of the few defenses with the speed to handle Deuce, Aaron, and Dante. We faced a very similar, yet less polished, team last week and won in a game that shouldn’t have been that close in the end. I’m suprised we’re favored honestly, even hough its at “home”. I can’t tell you right now, that I’m not putting any money anywhere near this game. If the Bears offense comes out early and tries to be aggressive, we’ll win. With our defense beaten up, we’ll need to. But, sadly I don’t have any faith in our OC to realize this, and if he waits until we get down to open it up, we’re screwed. Bears win and cover, but I’ve got all my fingers crossed.

N.Y. Jets at Miami 12:00pm (Miami by 6)
The Jets are a bad team. I said it all last year and they kept finding ways to prove me wrong. For some reason the Jets simply eat up the Dolphins defense. I’m not so sure what’s special about Vinny, but that man-to-man doesn’t phase him. Will the fish make an adjustment? I don’t think that’s their style. How big a factor is Ricky gonna be? I’d say big enough looking at the success the Jets have had against the run. Miami wins, but the spread is a scary 2 field goals. Might as well go with the flow and say they cover too.

Buffalo at Denver 3:05pm (Denver by 9)
Hmm, everyone has already labeled the Broncos as one of the great AFC powerhouses. They have beaten two good teams with good offenses. Now they come in against the Bills and a red-hot Bledsoe. Buffalo probably won’t be able to stop the run, but the Broncos will only slighty slow the Bills passing game. The stats say otherwise, but I think that with two games of film to study, and something magic around Bledsoe this year, he’ll find a way to do what Warner and Garcia couldn’t. I’d take the over, but I think that the Bills will come up just short. The Broncos aren’t the great team they’ve been hyped as, but the Bills aren’t well rounded enough to beat them. Broncos win, Bills cover…can you believe it?

San Diego at Arizona 3:05pm (San Diego by 1½)
Why do I worry about the Cardinals so much? The last few years I’ve had this sickening feeling that every game is the game that Plummer breaks out and screws me. Thomas Jones isn’t that good, Seattle is that bad. I do however want to ask who saw that run in last weeks game where two Cardinal receivers blocked 5 defenders. Boston labeled a DB from the blind side and he crumbled into another Seahawk who was 2 steps behind. Freddie Jones rode a Safety into not one, but two would-be tacklers over about 15 yards. It was very nice. Back to this future match up though, San Diego has been playing really well. That defense seems pumped that they have a solid ball control offense to support them. Seau is going to trample Jones every time he dances behind that line. The scary part however is that the Cards managed to stop Alexander last week, could they do the same to LT? Either way, they’ll lose, and at just 1½ points, they won’t cover.

Green Bay at Detroit 3:15pm (Green Bay by 8)
Well, I’ve taked big about bashing the Packers. Its just so much fun when they lose. Well, the fun’s gonna end this week. While Norris division teams always play each other tough, regardless of record, this matchup is just to lop-sided. There’s something to be said for the game being the inaugural game, call it the Houston Factor. Maybe the Lions and fans come out really pumped, and get up on the Packers early. The tide keeps the game close, and maybe they win or at least cover on emotion. The problem with that theory is that the opponent needs to play along, Quincy Carter and Bryant Westbrook played along. I don’t expect Favre or any other Packers to play along. 8 points is alot in a rivalry game, but the Lions are just so bad. Packers win and cover.

Seattle at N.Y. Giants 3:15pm (N.Y. Giants by 6)
I’d have expected this spread to be higher. The Seahawks have been terrible, and the one strength they were supposed to have has vanished. Shaun Alexander…where are you? He won’t get on track against the NYG defense, and with that Seattle run defense the Giants should control the ball and limit his opportunities. Dilfer managed a nice game last week, and the Giants secondary is pretty weak. But after facing 2 very good passing attacks, Dilfer won’t scare them or find any big holes to exploit. Giants win and cover, and it won’t even be fun.

Washington at San Francisco 3:15pm (San Francisco by 9)
Grudge match, huh? While I think the 49ers are a bunch of Sally’s for being bitter about a preseason game, they will use it to get geared up. And if they are able to get the edge on the 'skins, they’ll run it up. So the 9 points probably aren’t too unlikely. The question is: Will the Redskins get the offense back on track? The Niner’s defense isn’t exactly dominating, but they’ve contained two very solid teams. Their offense has struggled, and the Redskin’s D is supposed to be very talented. Lots of question marks and possible outcomes. Maybe Spurrier found something in the preseason game, and from a scheme standpoin has their number. Perhaps the Redskins defense will step up big, and Owens will continue to get beat like a girl. Perhaps the Redskins are all smoke and mirrors, and Spurrier can’t account for the level of talent on NFL defenses. I really don’t know about this game, and I won’t be betting it. For kicks I’m gonna stick with the trend and go 49ers win and cover at home.

Cincinnati at Atlanta 7:30pm (Atlanta by 7)
Can you believe the Bungles rated high enough to get a primetime appearance? The Bears were better than the Bengals in the 90’s and it took a goddamn 13-3 season to get the bright lights. Well, it serves the league right, the Bengals suck and this game will be turned off by half time in most homes. Vick is good, but he won’t be the guy that wins this game. It’ll be Dunn and Duckett together. Lots of yards on the ground, Vick making plays to convert 3rd downs. Falcons win and cover, but beware of the 7 point spread!

Monday Night Football
St. Louis at Tampa Bay 8:00pm (St. Louis by 1½)
Cue the Hank Williams Jr. A Monday Night rematch of the greatest game I’ve seen in the last 5 years. I watched these teams face off at the ESPN Zone last season on Monday night, and it was frigging intense. However, alot has changed. The Bucs D seems beatable, and the Rams O seems stoppable. I’d probably pick the Bucs if Dungy were still there, but I’m not sure Gruden will be able to do the same thing. Either way, I think the Rams will stop the Bucs offense. However, Warner has been turnover prone, which the Bucs are very good at feasting on. Might go either way, but I’m thinking the Rams, on Monday Night, under the bright lights will find a way to find the magic if only for one game. They win and cover.

I’ll make the OMNI pick later.

I promise you will never see me pick this many favorites to win and cover again. Very very strange week.

Well, I thought that this week wasn’t that tough straight up, but I am having trouble deciding on my Omni picks. And Omni is picking on the Germans in my other world. Ha ha. Okay, it wasn’t funny unless you follow the Dip threads, and probably not even then.

Omni, your hotmail account is filled up. You might want to free some space over there.

Man, it’s quiet in here. Think everyone else is having as hard a time getting a read on this season as I am?

Bandwagon picks. This week’s theme: Someone Please End The Freaking Nightmare Already.

1. Saints Am I the only one getting a little irritated by all the “A win is a win is a win no matter how freakish” horseplop coming from the Bears camp? Look, pulling victory from the jaws of defeat is one thing, but something’s a tad wrong with a division powerhouse that never wins convincingly and is only on top due to an endless supply of lucky, freaky, fluky breaks. I want the Bears to get creamed, dammit. Saints might not be strong enough to pull it off, but a man’s gotta hope. (I’m not even bothered by The Sports Guy invoking the Ewing Rule again re. NO.)

2. Vikings The anti-Bears. If it weren’t for horrible breaks, they’d have no breaks at all. They should have given Randy Moss an incentive clause for shutting the frag up and making plays. And what was the deal with two missed extra points?? If they can’t even beat the as-yet untested Panthers, I wouldn’t be surprised if contraction rumors started. C’mon, just one big early-season win over a foe you should be able to handle. Please.

3. Cardinals Their first big test of the season. They’ve been known to tank horribly in these and blow the entire season. If the Ravens and Patriots could have Super Bowl seasons, they can knock off a 2-0 team and remain on top in the NFC West. C’mon, give the desert faithful a reason to care. Please.

4. Eagles It’s been a while since they had the chance to romp all over their division. A big win over Dallas could spell the beginning of a new America’s Team and give their long-suffering fans something to cheer about…well, stop booing about, at the very least. :slight_smile:

5. Packers Aw, gee, I guess you can’t exasperate possibly the greatest running back ever into early retirement and continue to make no real effort to build a contender and just laugh it off like nothing happened. Packers to win this in a laugher and help validate the Sanders Corollary to the Ewing Rule I mentioned last week.

Bandwagon standings -
Chargers, Saints: 5
49ers, Vikings: 4
Cardinals, Dolphins: 3
Eagles, Patriots: 2
Bills, Packers: 1
Really bunched up, I know. I get the feeling, though that someone’s going to start pulling away after this Sunday.

To win: Broncs, Bucs, Chargers, Colts, Eagles, Falcons, 49ers, Giants, Jets, Pack, Pats, Saints, Titans, Vikes.

Omni: Bills, Eagles, Pats, Pack, Saints.

This may be one of the toughest ATS weeks I’ve ever seen. I’m not even doing my normal “bet 5 games and parlay the 5” this week, instead taking 3 ATS and taking 2 unders.

(Last week I was a whopping -$4.00 thanks to the vig)

This week’s bets: MIN, SD, NE, DEN/BUF under, AZ/SD under.

OMNI Picks - MIN, SD, NE, MIA (bad pick, but…), <flip a coin> IND.

Sunday Games

Carolina at Minnesota 12:00pm (Minnesota by 6)
I’m surprised that Carolinas doing so well too. I see this week as the week the shiny new paint comes off. I however think it’ll be close. Minnesota wins Atlanta covers.

Cleveland at Tennessee 12:00pm (Tennessee by 4)
Ouch, a tough one. If this game were in Cleveland, I’d go with the Browns. I think another close one. I think the Browns cover, and the Titans take the W.

Dallas at Philadelphia 12:00pm (Philadelphia by 9)
Unlike Omni, I think Philly blows Dallas away. Philly wins and covers.

Indianapolis at Houston 12:00pm (Indianapolis by 12)
Big day for Manning, sad day for the folks in Houston. Indy wins and covers.

Kansas City at New England 12:00pm (New England by 9)
I was going to keep picking NE to lose till they did, but not at home. NE wins KC covers.

New Orleans at Chicago 12:00pm (Chicago by 1)
Chi-town needs to play ball control to have anything like a chance to win this game. I don’t think it’ll happen. NO wins and covers.

N.Y. Jets at Miami 12:00pm (Miami by 6)
The Jets have always had Miami’s number. The only thing that keeps me from confidently calling another win for the Jets is that dominating run game of the Phins. Still, I’ll take the Jets in 9-10 of these contests. Jets win.

Buffalo at Denver 3:05pm (Denver by 9)
Who picked this spread? A lot of fools will be out some money. Denver wins the Bills cover. Something like 28-27.

San Diego at Arizona 3:05pm (San Diego by 1½)
Let me answer that question for you Omni; talented receivers (they remind me of the 80’s version of Rice/Taylor) and a quarterback that’s just away from turning the corner. I’m still waiting for them to breakout. Maybe this’ll be it. AZ wins.
Green Bay at Detroit 3:15pm (Green Bay by 8)
I think the spread in this game was a typo; Favre and crew thrash the Lions.

Seattle at N.Y. Giants 3:15pm (N.Y. Giants by 6)
Another typo? Giants win and cover.

Washington at San Francisco 3:15pm (San Francisco by 9)
Sigh. I just don’t know what to make of my Niiners. BTW, I’m late making picks because I was out buying a new Niners ensemble. They had this sale…but I digress. I don’t see the Niners losing two at home. I would bet against that spread though. Niners win, but the Redskins keep it close.

Cincinnati at Atlanta 7:30pm (Atlanta by 7)
I think the odds-makers are dead on here. Atlanta wins and covers.

Monday Night Football
St. Louis at Tampa Bay 8:00pm (St. Louis by 1½)
I’m not feeling it for the Bucs yet. I’ll be playing close attention to this game. I’m leaning towards a huge game for the Rams Let me sleep on it.
Looking back I think I have more that 5 picks against the spread. So I’ll use the ones I’m most sure about as the OMNI:
WASH, KC, JETS, Buffalo and NO.

The only prediction I have is that Pittsburgh’s next opponent is going to run fifty consecutive pass plays and the Steelers are STILL going to play an eight man front to defend the run.

Well, between Friday night at a long happy hour celebrating EDS’s inability to pull the trigger quick enough to buy us up (and now with their stock in the toilet the deal could be dead), Saturday all day at Oktoberfest (much beer, sausage and polka music) and Sunday morning looking at Diplomacy, I didn’t get my picks in here in time. I know that I changed some between Friday’s office pool picks and this morning’s Pick’em league picks. Here’s who I had straight up in the early games:

Saints, Browns, Patriots, Dolphins, Viqueens, Eagles and Colts.

So far the Browns and 'Queens are still down. I don’t mind being wrong about Minnesota and am not surprised by the Browns. I picked that hoping that Holcomb would start or play.

In the afternoon, looks like this:

Bills, Cardinals, Packers, Giants, 49ers and Falcons. The first two are a reach, but not entirely improbable. For Monday night I am taking the Rams, mainly as a superstitious cuss I am afraid to pick my Bucs to win. But it could go either way.

For Omni picks, since I’m stuck to half the games, this should be interesting. Let’s say: Bills, Pack, Giants, Falcons and 49ers.

Damn it. Totally forgot to chck back in and shar emy Omni picks. Here they are, its not looking good for me this week.

OMNI: Green Bay, San Diego, New England, Indianapolis, N.Y. Giants

Shibbs, what were you trying to email me? I cleared up my folders so it should be all good, I hope I haven’t missed any Dip stuff.

Well, 9-3 straight up so far for 83 out of 105 points so far (in the SDMB confidence league). Have the Falcons and the Rams remaining, with a possible total of 96 if I get those two right. Too bad I didn’t make the same picks in my work pool.

For Omni picks, I am only 1-2. What the heck happened to the offenses in the Giants - Seahawks games?

Omni, it was nothing important, just some comment in Dip. I’ll resend if I can.

OK, so did everyone see the Vikings game or the NFL Primetime coverage?

Do you remember back around 4 years ago when everyone was saying how upset all these teams who drafted 1-16 should be? How the Vikes took a gamble and it paid off big time? Does anyone still feel this way anymore? Is there a worse “franchise” player in the game than Randy Moss? Could you believe those plays he refused to make this week, I’m shocked Culpepper didn’t kill him. I hope he sat on him and gave him a Few Good Men style Code Red in the locker room later after the game.

Have I mentioned how sickening it is having him on your fantasy team?

OK, so did everyone see the Vikings game or the NFL Primetime coverage?

Do you remember back around 4 years ago when everyone was saying how upset all these teams who drafted 1-16 should be? How the Vikes took a gamble and it paid off big time? Does anyone still feel this way anymore? Is there a worse “franchise” player in the game than Randy Moss? Could you believe those plays he refused to make this week, I’m shocked Culpepper didn’t kill him. I hope he sat on him and gave him a Few Good Men style Code Red in the locker room later after the game.

Have I mentioned how sickening it is having him on your fantasy team?

Yes, I saw the NFL Primetime coverage.

exactly what plays did he "refuse to make and how exactly would you go about doing that, aside from A) Refusing to run his pass route or B) Refusing to take the field.

Admittedly that attempted one-armed catch thing was appaling, and Culpepper was right to scream at him, but the fact that the Vikings are 0-3 is not all Randy Moss’s fault.

After two 8-8 weeks, I’m 9-3 so far, even up, and the Falcons are looking good. I’m 3-2 in Omni picks this week, which is par for the course.

Well, no loss is entirely one players fault, but when your star consistently misses chances to move the chains, it adds up.

There were at least 4 different catches in that game, 2 of while Berman and TJ commented on, that Moss simply decided weren’t worth trying for. Anything even resembling a catch in traffic he simply gave up on. They lost the Bears game and the Bills games in large part to disappearing acts by Moss when it got tough. He still put up fair numbers, but on 3rd and long, you take the hit and make the catch. He hasn’t done that yet this season that I’ve seen.

Footsteps Moss and Gator-Arms Owens, your NFC Pro Bowl WRs.

Wow, what a week, what a week. First off, major congrats to Omniscient and Stuffy for being so dead-on. (Pending the Monday Night game, but it hardly matters now.)


  • Yet another one of my mindless backhanded comments turning into an eerie omen, i.e., about Randy Moss. Geez, does he just not care anymore or something? I mean, he had a productive day, yeah, but that’s no excuse for giving up interceptions. (If he made even an effort to turn those two interceptions into incompletions, that would’ve been something.) I know the loss isn’t totally his fault, but he’s a star player and needs to be the man out there, dammit.

It looks like he’s ready to take over the “one-man team wrecker” role from Ryan Leaf. It’s going to be a long, long time before I think about getting on the Vikings bandwagon again…if it hasn’t already crashed and burned for good.

  • The awe-inspiring spectacle of the Lions fighting back from 14 points down, then making approximately 30,000,000,000 blunders in the 4th quarter and losing. Truly, no one does it better.

  • Bears…what can I say. After all the bleeps and bloops and twists and bobbles and stumbles and finishes from another planet, they get in a position where all they have to do to win is not blow a 20-0 lead, and they do just that. Back to the drawing board…

  • Go Eagles! I have my first back-to-back pick of the season right here. Total domination from top to bottom.

  • Boy, giving the opposing team posession at the point of the kick on a missed field goal has really killed those boring field goal battles, huh? :rolleyes:

  • I hate to have to ask this, but what the bloody HELL is up with the Cardinals? Today they had a chance to knock off one of the better teams in the league. And then, oops, there’s a bonehead fumble. Oops, punt blocked out the end zone for a safety. Oops, errant pass deep in own territory, returned for touchdown. How many times has this happened? I mean, when the Bengals get hammered, at least it’s understandable, but for the Cards to suffer so many breakdowns in their fundamentals against nearly every serious opponent they face…well, I can definitely see how hard it is to be a fan.

Unless the player is Dwayne Rudd.

Ok, quick check in to make a prediction for tonight. I would love to see the Rams go 0-3, and it would be a huge win for Tampa Bay, so I’m going to call an upset. Tampa by 6.
Oh and Yikes, did I blow that Jets/Miami call or what?

Well, it was a hit and miss week.

I went 2-3 in my OMNI picks. All three of the incorrect ones probably should have gone the other way. I have no idea how both New England and Green Bay blew those 14+ point leads. And I think everyone is baffled by that Giants game, and at the end they should have probably been able to score more than just a field goal. Though suprisingly enough that was probably the worst of my picks.

Straight up I was damn good. Looking at the SDMB confidence league, everyone else was pretty soild too, so I suppose it was one of those weeks. 10-3 all told straight up in my picks. My ATS was a different story. Going into MNF I’m 7-6 ATS, although as said above, at least 3 of those games were kinda fluky, and I take no disappointment from being wrong on the Bears game.

Looks like another winner in my pool this week. Damn it.