Well, Shibbs hasn’t gotten the thread going yet this week. It’s Thursday, the day my spreads are official for my pick 5 pool, and the day that Inside the NFL premieres for the week, and ESPN.com publishes its matchups. So, from this day forth all SDMB related football smack begins on Thursdays!
I’d also like to mention that Shibbs and I are matched up in the SDMB equivalent of the Bay of Pigs game this weekend. Both 0-1 to start the season with a mere 1 point total point difference from last and dead last. In honor of this, we’ll be heckling and making some wager this week.
So here we are with it, and having gotten my week 1 rustiness out, I expect to be 100%. Also, last week I was doing this X-Factor thing, partly as a CYA, but it got to be a bit much on every game. I’ll drop it for the most part going forward, unless anyone was especially interested in that.
PS - The games this week are frigging brutal…so many tough match ups. Going .500 straight up would even be tough this week.
Sunday’s Games
Chicago at Atlanta 12:00pm (Birds by 3)
I have one thing to say, the next person I hear say that Michael Vick is the black Jesus, gets punched. Michael Jordan is god, but Vick is no Jesus. Its one game against a shitty (yes, SHITTY!) defense. If he tries to scramble every down, and has those happy feet this week against the Bears he’ll get hurt, badly. Remember his initiation last season? Well, I promise you he does. This game won’t be this close, and there are lots of reasons, any one of which would tilt the scale. First, Buchannon is out, Robinson will break out. Second, we’ve got Chandler this year. Can you say wicked scouting report? I’m also thinking its a good thing that Daniels is out. Its never good losing a starter, but Alex Brown is going to have to fill in, and against a guy like Vick his speed could be more effective than Daniels. Oh, and how the fuck are the Bears a dog?!?!!? Bears win and cover.
Cincinnati at Cleveland 12:00pm (Brownies by 4½)
Can you believe the number of people who thought the Bungles were a sleeper? This game should be a bigger spread than that. Might be a big day for Dillon, after how Holmes blew up, but he’s a different style back. Much more straight ahead, and I’m guessing the Browns will handle him. Couch is coming back, which I think is a good thing…but its tough to be sure after last week. Oh, and I hope no one feels bad for Rudd, the guy was an asshole in Minnesota and has always been guilty of shit like this. Couldn’t happen to a more appropriate guy. Browns defense has a much better day so they win and cover.
Detroit at Carolina 12:00pm (Carolina by 3) [sub]insert jaw dropping[/sub]
Wow, the Panthers are actually favored. I think people are giving them too much credit for beating the Ravens. That TD they scored was a bit of a fluke I’d say, a nice play no doubt and their D is solid, but it wasn’t the type of TO you’d expect against 95% of QBs in the league. If it had been a DB jumping a route and taking one back, I’d be more impressed. Last year the Lions were better than the Panthers, and they still are…very slightly. Peppers is the real deal. Stewart’s expected to start. But I keep looking back at Rodney Peete…wow, can’t ever be favored that way. Lions upset, and cover, but its nothing to celebrate about.
Green Bay at New Orleans 12:00pm (&%@!Packers by 2)
I’m not sure what to make of this game. The Pack is solid on offense, and soft on defense. GB can get after the passer, but they won’t be able to stop McAllister. I read the Saints the same way, and think Green will have a nice day. What it seems to come down to, is Favre vs. Brooks. Remember Brooks was the backup, and Favre is playing at his psuedo-home town. He’ll be playing to impress some folks, and he’s the type of guy who would step up big time. Green Bay wins and covers in a relatively dull even game something like 27-20.
Jacksonville at Kansas City 12:00pm (Kansas City by 4)
This game baffles me. I didn’t get to see much from the Indy-Jax game, so I can’t read Jax very well. Taylor wasn’t a huge factor statistically. I’m pretty sure neither team will stop the other. Jax should be more potent on offense than the Browns, but the game is in KC where the Chiefs used to be dominant. Wonder if they’ll capture that again this year. Another close high scoring game, KC eeks out the win, Jags cover…just 'cause.
Miami at Indianapolis 12:00pm (Indy by 2½)
Miami struggles in Indy, always have. Can’t gather too much frm that Lions game last week, and I’m not sure if the Indy defense is improved or not, since the Jags O might just be that good again. Don’t like the fact that Pollard is out since the Miami coverage is so tough, Manning will need all his targets. I don’t really have a clue, but I think it’ll be close. Indy won’t stop Ricky, but Fielder has a knack for following great games with bad ones. I’m taking the Dolphins to win in the upset…but I wouldn’t bet gerbil shit on it.
New England at N.Y. Jets 12:00pm (N.Y. Jets by 2)
Here’s one game I feel confident on, very confident. The Pats will do what they did to the Steelers, embarass them. I can’t believe they are underdogs. Granted they should only be a couple point faves on the road, but this is insulting. CuMar is probably out, or at least hobbled. The Jets don’t stop the run well, and the Pats will be set up to run. You won’t see 25 straight passes, but it’ll be in the back of the Jets mind. Pats win and cover in a balanced attack.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore 12:00pm (Tampa Bay by 3½)
The Ravens suck, seriously. But their defense might be just good enough to hold this game to 3 points and screw the bettors. I don’t know if the Bucs will be able to run at all here, and they’ll have to play the field position game all day. But they’ll wn that battle. Gramatica will have a huge fantasy day. Bucs win and cover, might end up 15-6, no touchdowns.
Tennessee at Dallas 12:00pm (Tennessee by 3)
OK, the oddsmaker is drunk. He must not have seen the way Quincy Carter threw the ball last week…and its very important you use the word “throw” and not “pass”, “pass” implies some type of aim and a clear intent to get it to another teammate. This game is going to be a blood bath, and Emmitt might get farther away from the record after this game[sub]fingers crossed[/sub]. Start Eddie George this week if you have him, he’ll get a pair of TDs. Titans win and cover.
Arizona at Seattle 3:05pm (Seattle by 3½)
I think Seattle will struggle in this game. Dilfer will probably be back, but he will be out of sync without any practice in a few weeks. The 'Hawks fate rides on Alexander, and the Cardinals are the type of team he could explode against. I’m going to take a flier here and pick the Cardinals though. Too much turmoil in Seattle, and I like seeing ex-Packer Holmgren squirm. No way the Seahawks can cover Boston, but Plummer needs to have a better game than last week. I think he will. Cards upset.
N.Y. Giants at St. Louis 3:05pm (St. Louis by 12½)
The Rams are gonna be pissed, sure. But 12½ points (ESPN is calling it 13 even)? I think they had this spread about 6 different times last year and blew it every time I played it. The Rams offense is good, but I think the word is out on how to solve them. And losing Az Hakim is hurting them more than I could have ever guessed. Was Manning that good, or did Wilkins just fall apart? The Rams win, since their D is good enough to stop the Giants, but will they cover…I doubt it. Big TEs tend to hurt the Rams, and Shockey might have a career day[sub]insert sarcastic wink[/sub]. The Rams will win in unimpressive fashion, Giants cover.
Buffalo at Minnesota 3:05pm (Minnesota by 5)
Wow, the oddsmakers must have turned off the TV halfway through the Bears-Vikes game. Bears are dogs against a rookie QB and the Vikes favored against a team that scored 31 against a good defense? Makes no sense. Granted I’d be alot happier if it was in Buffalo, but I still think he’ll eat up the Vikes D. Hell Jim Miller did it, Bledsoe’s gonna have a huge day. Buffalo needs to outscore Moss, which might be hard this week (yay, my fantasy team), but I think they will. Buffalo wins and covers.
Denver at San Francisco 3:15pm (San Francisco by 3½)
Denver confuses me. They gave me fits all last year, and I expect nothing to change as long as this silly Griese saga is played up. I didn’t realize how fast and athletic their linebackers were, and they have a pretty nice secondary. Won’t get much push up front, and I think SF will be able to run enough to keep the passing game open. Owens is rarely quiet two weeks in a row, and you can bet that he’s been in Mariucci and Garcia’s ear all week. I’m going to take San Fran to win, and the Broncos to cover. Its a tight margin, but I figure what the hell.
Houston at San Diego 3:15pm (San Diego by 12½)
This week we find out if the Texans were that good or the Cowboys were that bad. I’m pretty sure its the latter, and the odds makers agree with me. 12½ is always alot of points to wager against, but I think Tomlinson will be unstoppable, especially at home. I figure the Texans celebrated a litle too much, and won’t have quite the urgency or the home crowd to fire them up like last week. Caper’s defense won’t be anything new to Schottenhiemer. Chargers win and cover, let the playoff talk start, just like last season.
Oakland at Pittsburgh 8:30pm (Pittsburgh by 4)
Kordelled!!! Seriously Kordelled, the Steelers were. Get used to it Pittsburgh fans. Bettis has lost a step, but luckily for him the Raiders are real tough up front. But they are better than last year, and it won’t be enough to carry the Steelers. Can’t believe the Raiders are dogs in primetime. If Brady was able to disect the Steelers secondary, what do you think Brown, Rice and Gannon will do, especially with the Steelers missing some starters? Feel pretty confident is taking the Raiders to upset here. They probably aren’t Super Bowl bound, but they are still top 5 in the AFC and they match up against the Steelers pretty well.
Monday Night Football
Philadelphia at Washington 8:00pm (Philadelphia by 3)
I really want to take the Redskins in this one, I just have a good feeling about Spurrier. However, Spurrier has had a tendency to let down under the bright lights in college. Thats all in the past, of course, but worth mentioning. Then I remember that the Eagles are not the Cardinals…birds as the both may be. The Iggles are overrated and not Super Bowl bound, but they are quite good. The plusses for the Redskins are the LBs, they match up well against McNabb and his feet shouldn’t help him too much. But that Eagles secondary could really snipe against a overconfident Matthews…maybe we’ll see Wuerffel next week. If Stephen Davis has another nice game, the Redskins will win. If Matthews throws INTs they’ll lose, simple as that. I’m going with the gut, and taking the 'Skins to win, but I’m not staking anything on it.
Well, there you all have it. Its late, and I’m not going to make my OMNI picks just yet. Lets get some extra smack talking in here this week, huh.
Go Bears!!!
[sup]Haven’t really proof read this, so apoligies in advance for any broken thoughts or typos[/sup]
