NFL Picks - Week 11

In My Humble Opinion
1

OK, I’m gonna try something new here. I’m gonna get the thread going, and give everyone a template of the slate of games and spreads. I’ll fill in my comments as soon as I can, since it tends to take me a couple hours and I ususally don’t do it all in one sitting. As a result the past couple weeks, I’d be working on getting one going, got busy, and left a partially finished one sitting for a couple of days on my desktop. I fear that a few of you might have been waiting to see the thread. I’m hoping that this will give more people a chance to participate one way or another.

Last week was a tough one for me, I did fairly well, but alot of people did quite a bit better. And the Tie really screwed up the confidence league. Luckily however, my Pick 5 pool rolled over. I must say things aren;t going well, I was 2-3 again for the 7th time this season. This doesn’t bode well for my chances at winning the overall. But, if I string together a couple of 5-0 weeks I have a shot. Gonna need your guys’ help. On with it, hopefully I’ll get most of my analyses in today sometime.

Sunday Games

Arizona @ Philadelphia 12:00pm (Philadelphia by 11)

Baltimore @ Miami 12:00pm (Miami by 4½)

Buffalo @ Kansas City 12:00pm (Kansas City by 3½)

Cleveland @ Cincinatti 12:00pm (Cleveland by 3½)

Dallas @ Indianapolis 12:00pm (Indianapolis by 6½)

Green Bay @ Minnesota 12:00pm (Green Bay by 6½)

New Orleans @ Atlanta 12:00pm (Atlanta by 3)

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee 12:00pm (Pittsburgh by 3)

Washington @ N.Y. Giants 12:00pm (N.Y. Giants by 3½)

Carolina @ Tampa Bay 3:05pm (Tampa Bay by 8½)

San Francisco @ San Diego 3:05pm (San Francisco by 2½)

Denver @ Seattle 3:15pm (Denver by 5)

Jacksonville @ Houston 3:15pm (Jacksonville by 6)

N.Y. Jets @ Detroit 3:15pm (N.Y. Jets by 3)

New England @ Oakland 7:30pm (Oakland by 4)

Monday Night Football

Chicago @ St. Louis 8:00pm OFF

2

Thanks for the primer OMNI, I felt bad no getting mine in either, too much going on in the real world. Last time I checked it takes me 3 hours to do these, and that’s when I’m glossing over some of the mediocre contest. I’ve been playing with the idea of doing a sort of play-off countdownstartig this week. You guys let me know what you think. I’ll try to get mine finished tonight.

3

Rollin¡¦, rollin¡¦, rollin¡¦, keep those bandwagons rollin¡¦.

First off, consider the Cardinals bandwagon impounded. Sheesh, why this franchise wasn¡¦t broken up years ago is beyond me. Okay, the Bengals get steamrolled all the time, but at least you expect that. The Cards have the amazing ability to get into the game and collapse like, well, a house of cards at the end…or, even worse, win a big one to get your hopes up, only to instantly revert to stumbling, bumbling ineptitude for the next game. This franchise is a joke. I¡¦d rather root for the Texas Rangers.

Likewise, the Dolphins¡¦ wagon remains firmly parked on account of their turning into a Hurricanes¡¦ early-season nonconference tackling dummy the INSTANT Jay Fiedler went down. It continues to amaze me how overwhelmingly dependent this team continues to be on the quarterback. That¡¦s a sure recipe for failure, especially given the effectiveness of kill-the-QB defenses.

Lessee, what else…Panthers do nothing but choke…Redskins foundering…Jaguars a mystery…Ravens have come and gone…Browns not quite ready…

Shoot, this just gets easier and easier.

This week¡¦s picks:
1. Packers
Yeah, that¡¦s right. I¡¦m now officialy on board the Yankees-esque can¡¦t-miss tanned and loaded world-beating overdog bandwagon. And you couldn¡¦t drag me off with a tow truck.

2. Buccaneers
I¡¦ve been light on them before. I¡¦m absolutely pouring on the love now. Hey, no one paid more dues than them. Besides, can¡¦t let the Saints run away with the divison.

3. Raiders
The whole tuck controversy has been blown horribly out of proportion. C¡¦mon, there¡¦ve been like 500 rule changes to benefit the passing game (since when does the cornerback nudging you off a little entitle you to a massive penalty?), and the quarterback already gets a ton of help; was anyone really surprised that the tuck rule exists? Besides, the Raiders have benefitted more than anybody from the freedom to pass, pass, pass. Well, I do believe in payback, so here¡¦s to the grand old team airing all over the surprise rival Patriots. Besides, watching the immortal Jerry Rice prove an ever-burgeoning pile of critics wrong is always a treat.

4. Bills
I honestly think they have the best chance of anyone of winning the always-insane AFC East. Chiefs are just irrelevant…always are, always will be.

5. Steelers
One, they¡¦ve made a lot of good moves this season and deserve a break. Two, anything so the windbag commentators don¡¦t pee their pants factoring the tie into the Steelers¡¦ playoff hopes.

Was leaning toward Philadelphia, but I¡¦m actually kinda afraid they might lose this one (given Arizona¡¦s history, that¡¦s definitely not an impossibility). I¡¦d like to root for Miami, but now that their one-dimensionalness has been exposed, it¡¦s a lot harder than it used to be, and no way am I risking the possibility of the still-dangerous Ravens defense grinding them up.

(Oh my god, did I actually talk trash this time? The things this thread will do to you… :slight_smile: )

4

Man, DKW, don’t put my beloved Buccos near the top of a list. That’s a surefire recipe for disaster. That and Julius Peppers hopped up on ephedrine going against the lacksadaisacal (sp?) Kenyatta Walker.

Also, what’s with all the weird characters in your post? Are you composing in Word and copy/pasting here? If you do that use Wordpad or Notepad.

And Omni, I’ve missed the last couple of weeks. Thanks for getting the ball rolling again. Was there a big post from Biggirl give her Jets some lovin’ after smacking down the 'Fins and the Chargers? Maybe I’ll do a search…

5

Well, I had a shot at winning my work pool and 42 bucks until the Broncos laid down on me like a cheap rug at Mile High. Am I the only one who thinks that Bill Romanowski should be banned for life? It sure looked like he intentionally rolled Shannon Sharpe’s elbow on that play. What a dirty bastard? And I’m a legacy Raiders fan, fercrissakes! (My folks had season tickets back when they were an AFL team and I was knee high to a grasshopper)

Well, let’s see what we can do with this week:

Sunday Games

Arizona @ Philadelphia 12:00pm (Philadelphia by 11)
Like the Eagles, but I’m way shy about 11 point spreads. I do need Marcel Shipp to hold onto the ball and cross the goal line once or twice this week. Let’s hope he does his best James Mungro imitation. Odds are against it, though, since the Eagles play the NFC tough.
Eagles 27-17

Baltimore @ Miami 12:00pm (Miami by 4½)
Could this be Ray Lucas’ break out week? Maybe. This promises to be an ugly contest, could go either way. But I figure the Dolphins are embarassed and desperate after the last couple of weeks. Who knew Jay Fiedler was so important?
Fish 21-20

Buffalo @ Kansas City 12:00pm (Kansas City by 3½)
KC seems to have run out of steam the last few weeks. I figure Bledsoe, Moulds and Price to go wild against a ho-hum Chiefs secondary.
Bills 30-27

Cleveland @ Cincinatti 12:00pm (Cleveland by 3½)
Why can’t anybody spell Cincinnati? Or do you like to do this just to get my dander up? I’ve got news for you, my head is cleanshaven, hence, no dander!
Browns 38-21

Dallas @ Indianapolis 12:00pm (Indianapolis by 6½)
We picked up James Mungro this week in one of my FFL and then I submitted a lineup and forgot to start him. Not a great idea. But Dallas has a tough run defense, particularly against Fantasy players, so maybe it was a blessing in disguise. That doesn’t mean that the pumpkin-noggined Manning and the elusive Marvin won’t have a field day against their secondary.
Colts 28-21

Green Bay @ Minnesota 12:00pm (Green Bay by 6½)
Vikings suck. Pack may be the best team in the NFC. So why does this six and a half point spread worry me? Because history says to be worried when the Pack play in the Metrodome. Still, I can’t in good conscience call the upset, so let’s at least hedge against the spread. As a side note, does anyone think that Bennett has another 60+ yard TD run in him this week?
Packers 30-27
New Orleans @ Atlanta 12:00pm (Atlanta by 3)
I can’t believe that Atlanta is favored in this one. Yes, the Saints have struggled a bit lately. Yes, the Falcons have found ways to stay in games. Yes, it’s in Atlanta. Did the Falcons take the first one? I think that they may have. And I hope that they grab this one, too. But I wouldn’t bet it that way.
Saints 34-31

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee 12:00pm (Pittsburgh by 3)
I just don’t think this will be close. Spidey sense is tingling, or somesuch nonsense.
Stillers 24-10

Washington @ N.Y. Giants 12:00pm (N.Y. Giants by 3½)
Redskins should lose this one. But who are the Giants going to throw to? Let’s call this the Jacquez Green/Ike Hilliard memorial cup.
Redskins 27-17

Carolina @ Tampa Bay 3:05pm (Tampa Bay by 8½)
No way Tampa should have such a spread here. They barely beat the Panthers a few weeks ago with Fasani at QB for the cats. Bet the farm on Carolina.
Bucs 20-17

San Francisco @ San Diego 3:05pm (San Francisco by 2½)
I smell another upset here. Dissing SD in their own house? Well, I suppose it could happen.
Chargers 24-21

Denver @ Seattle 3:15pm (Denver by 5)
Stupid Broncos. That $42 was in the bank, man! I’m guessing that they’ll recover and make Hasselback look human again.
Broncos 28-20

Jacksonville @ Houston 3:15pm (Jacksonville by 6)
I keep picking the Texans and they keep losing. So I can’t go with them as my golden upset boys anymore. But I’m not feeling terribly confident about the suddenly impotent Jags.
Jags 20-15

N.Y. Jets @ Detroit 3:15pm (N.Y. Jets by 3)
This is exactly the type of game the Jets should win. Seems like the Jets like to win the games they shouldn’t and lose the games they should. But I’ll pick the Jets in honor of Biggirl anyway. Let’s call it the Lazarus pick of the week.
Jets 29-21

New England @ Oakland 7:30pm (Oakland by 4)
Well, if both teams live up to recent standards this should be the doozy that the scheduling geniuses at ESPN had in mind before the season started. Tough one to call. Was that the real Raiders last week at Mile High, or was it a one week aberration and the mediocre team that lost the previous four weeks was the real team? Unfortunately you could say the same about the Pats.
Raiders get revenge, 30-27

Monday Night Football

Chicago @ St. Louis 8:00pm OFF
Bulger’s last hurrah. Read the USA Today article about this kid today, sounds like a really nice guy. But the big issue is whether he’ll have Marshall or Lamar in his backfield. That could be the difference that keeps the blitz packages off the field.
Rams 28-10

6

Arizona @ Philadelphia 12:00pm (Philadelphia by 11) 38

With Boston out, I’m surprised that the line isn’t bigger. I don’t think Philly’s loss to Indianapolis last week is a confidence breaker. McNabb and Co. should move the ball easily against the Cards defense. The Cards with the loss of their star receiver should have difficulty moving the ball. Eagles win, and cover. Philly is capable of generating that line by themselves, and should be looking for a kicking boy in the Cards, so take the over.

Playoff picture: Philly has command of the NFC East; it’s theirs to lose. AZ is tied for second in the NFC West, at present they’d lose the wild card berth by virtue of losing to the Rams. This one’s a wait and see.
Baltimore @ Miami 12:00pm (Miami by 4½) 35

Looks like they’re not going to announce if Lewis is playing till game day. I don’t think it matters in this game. With the exception of when they’re playing the Jets, I’m confident in this Miami team. The Ravens should be able to keep it close though. Take Miami to win, the Raves to cover and over.

Playoff picture: Baltimore is in the horrible NFC North and the Steelers seem to be pulling away, most of the AFC is hovering around .500 so this is way too early to call. Miami likewise is tied for first place with ¾ of their division, again to close to call. I can probably change the team names and repeat this for the rest of the post.

Buffalo @ Kansas City 12:00pm (Kansas City by 3½) 51 ½

Speaking of hovering around .500 we have one above and one below. The Bills need this game to keep up with Miami, KC needs it to start climbing out of the cellar. I always take KC at home and this is no exception. Take KC to win and cover, I’d be betting the under.

Playoff picture. Miami and the Bills are tied for first place, but that don’t mean much in that division, as for the rest, see above.

Cleveland @ Cincinatti 12:00pm (Cleveland by 3½) 41

Cool a quickie, Browns to win and cover.

Playoff picture: Cleveland’s in the aforementioned AFC North, see above. Cincinatti: Snort!!

Dallas @ Indianapolis 12:00pm (Indianapolis by 6½) 41

Indianapolis has to be feeling good after that win against the Eagles. Dallas has been hot and cold, but mostly cold. Should be a cakewalk for Manning and crew, but with Manning nothings a sure thing. Still I’ll take Indy to win and cover.

Playoff picture: Indy is leading their division mostly by virtue of alphabetical placement, and like a majority of the AFC hovering around .500 another wait and see. Dallas barring a miracle of biblical proportions are out of it.

Green Bay @ Minnesota 12:00pm (Green Bay by 6½) 49 ½

Green Bays on a monster rampage in the NFL. The only good thing about this contest is it pits divisional rivals. I’m going to go under on that line because the Vikes may play up to the expectation of the crowd, but Green Bay wins and covers.

Playoff picture: Green Bay is leading the NFC North and the division is theirs to lose, I don’t even see a wildcard berth coming out of that division. Minnesota, barring a miracle of…well you get the idea.
New Orleans @ Atlanta 12:00pm (Atlanta by 3) 51 1/2

Just like the last time these teams played, I’m not touching this one with a 10ft. pole. To avoid looking wishy-washy though I’ll take the Saints this time, just on the revenge factor. I’m going to take the over.

Playoff picture: The Saints and Buccaneers are tied and Atlanta ain’t quite out. A win for Atlanta could change the fates of that division dramatically. In other words; the smart moneys on the Saints, but Atlanta or the Bucs are going to be there.

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee 12:00pm (Pittsburgh by 3) 43 1/2

Put in a rookie QB and he breaks Terry Bradshaw’s record in 4 games go figure. The Steelers are hot, and I’ll stay on this bandwagon a while. Steelers win and cover.

Playoff picture: I mentioned the Steelers earlier, so lets look at Tennessee. Like the AFC North, the AFC South is dominated by .500 teams. I’m starting to suspect that these teams aren’t as mediocre as they seem but that the AFC is unusually strong this season. Again to close to call.

Washington @ N.Y. Giants 12:00pm (N.Y. Giants by 3½) 37

Poor Steve Spurrier, the rest of the league suckered him big time during the pre-season. I can settle the team name dispute; lets call them the Tinkerers. The Giants are looking to win their third straight, and this team shouldn’t be able to stop him. Giants to win and cover, over.

Playoff picture: The Giants are in good position for a wildcard berth, and are not quite out of the divisional race either. Believe it or not you can’t rule out a possible wildcard berth for the Skins either, but I only say that to give their fans some hope.

Carolina @ Tampa Bay 3:05pm (Tampa Bay by 8½) 34

Good another quickie. Tampa Bay wins, but I’ve got a funny feeling that the Panthers cover. This should be an over.
San Francisco @ San Diego 3:05pm (San Francisco by 2½) 42 1/2

This match-up will help establish where the Niners are, and also whether San Diego is as good as there record suggest. The Niners are keeping Streets as the second receiver, a move they should have made last year. San Diego is playing good football, but I’m going to go with my Niners more balanced attack. Niners to win and cover, take the over, there should be a ton of offense in this game.

Playoff picture: The Niners are leading the NFC West but the Rams and Cardinals are not quite out of it though I suspect the Cards will fall out of contention if not this week next week. San Diego is tied with Denver in the Power House AFC West. Only Kansas City is out of that race, and even they could still be playing for a wildcard.

Denver @ Seattle 3:15pm (Denver by 5) 35

This spread should be closer. Shanahan and Holmgren know each others thinking to well for this to be a sure thing, of course there’s that matter of Seattle losing all those games. Denver to win, but I suspect Holmgren will keep Seattle close call it a win by a Figgie.

Playoff picture: Denver is in the AFC West, and is tied for 1st with San Diego. Every game against divisional rivals matters so they need to take this game. Seattle barring a miracle of…never mind.

Jacksonville @ Houston 3:15pm (Jacksonville by 6) 37 ½

Jacksonville has more to play for than Houston and that alone should carry them this game. JAX win Houston covers, under.

Playoff picture: Jacksonville, see previous AFC North teams. Houston, forgedaboudit!

N.Y. Jets @ Detroit 3:15pm (N.Y. Jets by 3) 43

Make no mistake, this should be no cakewalk for the Jets. The Jets have been inconsistent, and with a couple of breaks the Lions could have been at .500. I like this game for an upset. Detroit wins and take the over.

Playoff picture: The Jets aren’t out yet, due to hovering at .500 like most of the AFC. Detroit barring…
New England @ Oakland 7:30pm (Oakland by 4) 47

The rematch of the AFC Championship game. Oakland is looking to redeem themselves for that lost last season, and that’s almost precisely why they’ll lose. The raiders show an astonishing consistency in losing games they must win, and with the added emphasis of the Snow Bowl, this is just such a game. Patriots with the Upset.

Playoff picture: New England after a strong start has started to slip, but don’t rule these guys out yet, like most of the AFC the Patriots are a streak away from looking good. The Raiders are a game behind the leaders in the AFC West, a loss here for the Raiders could put them out of contention, at least from a home-field perspective.
Monday Night Football

Chicago @ St. Louis 8:00pm OFF

There’s a chance that Warner could play this week, but no announcement yet. Faulk is also questionable. My prediction, crappiest Monday Night game this season.

Playoff picture: The Rams are capable of pulling a wildcard out of this race with a couple of “ifs”. The Bears, barring a…like a said a crappy Monday Night.

7

Shibboleth - Yeah, that’s MS Word. Funny, the other computer (which is just about ready to come back sometime this week, thank you CompUSA) doesn’t have this problem. Noted, will try to get in the habit of using Wordpad more often.

And I know you have concerns about jinxing the Bucs (sheesh, is it just me or could a butterfly flapping its wings a thousand miles away jinx this squad?). Barring a total meltdown, though, which seems unlikely, they’re assured of making the playoffs. At worst, the Saints will continue walking on water and they’ll have to settle for #4.

Shibboleth - Since you used two spellings, I had to look that one up. It’s “Cincinnati”, BTW. Everyone might want to write that down for future reference.

Why does this concern you, anyway? Are you a fan? Is it possible to be a fan of the Bengals? (No, seriously, what the hell’s up with those people?)

8

I’ll have you know that it takes a lot of character to be a Bengals fan. We have the best running back in the NFL. We might have the best fullback in the NFL. We have some really good linebackers. We have an above average offensive line.

When you are a Bengals fan, you’ve got to focus on the positive.

Check this though:

We will defeat the Brownies Sunday and dash their feeble hopes for the post-season. Bengals by 7 at home.

9

With the Bucs, it’s not about making the playoffs. Been there, done that. It’s about making it through the playoffs. Not trying to be greedy, just getting tired of being stomped into the turf at Veterans stadium. So homefield advantage, at least for a round or two, is imperative. Just hope they’re not looking past the Panteras to da Packers next week. So your “at worst” above is really not attractive.

About Cincinnati. I didn’t use two spellings, I used the template from Omni. I didn’t correct it or it wouldn’t have made sense what I was moaning about. Not a big fan, but I live here. It’s sort of like seeing your name misspelled all the time. Just grating. And as for Bengals fans, I know many, poor misfortunate things. But as a longtime Bucs fan I can empathise. It’s not nice what they are going through and it’s not their fault. Stoopid mean Mike Brown. In Tampa we had to wait for Culverhouse to die and his estate go into probate so that his family had to sell the team. Hope it doesn’t come to that here. Twelve straight losing seasons. Poor schmoes!

10

I was tempted to start last week’s thread. Since I’m short on analysis and waaaaay long on bullshit I think it’s best to leave it to the professionals. Then it was started so late I didn’t get a chance to post to it. Which would not have bothered me a bit except that I won my office pool with 12 wins and I didn’t get to show off or gloat or anything.

This weeks Short on Analysis, Long on Bullshit Irrational Girlie Picks.

Washington @ Giants
It is possible for the Giants to beat any team. The secret is for them to keep that force field they seem to project onto their goal line at 50%. Do not be afraid of the end zone Giants and you’ve got this one in the bag.

Giants.
Jets @ Detroit
Last week I picked the Jets because for some reason they like to beat the Dolphins at least once a season. This week I picked Detroit because for some reason they like to break my heart.

Lions.
Green Bay @ Minnisota
The Vikes have a way of handling the Packers, don’t they? And this year the phrase “Holy Shit— how could did we lose this game?” has been heard on many a Sunday. Yet ever since I learned that po’boys is Bret’s favorite food, I can’t seem to bet against Green Bay.

Packers.

New Orleans @ Atlanta
How can you bet on a team that can’t win or lose a game?

Saints.
Cleveland @ Cinncinatti
The Bengals could win this one only because we need to fill the weekly “Holy Shit-- how could we lose this game?” quota. But I wouldn’t bet on it. So I didn’t.

Browns.
Dallas @ Indianapolis
The Colts are beat to hell and it looks like a lot of guys will be playing hurt. Oh sure, they beat the Eagles last week, but that was due to the Holy Shit syndrom. Still, my intense dislike for the Cowboys makes me unable to pick them.

Colts.

Buffalo @ Kansas City
As you may have noticed, I’m a big booster for international sports. In light of this I am picking the Canadian team.

Bills.
Baltimore @ Miami
Did you notice that Raven’s mascot has a big “B” branded on it’s skull while the Dolphin’s mascot’s head is protected by a helmet? It’s noticing little things like this that has me 4th in the office pool.

Miami.

Arizona @ Philidelphia
My pool has Phillie by 12 and made this pick an easy one. 4 weeks ago I would have could have picked the Eagles with this spread, but they have not been looking that dominating lately. Oh, they’ll probably win this one, but c’mon-- 12 points?

Cards.

Pittsburg @ Tennessee
What’s with this tie bullshit? Plus, I absolutely cannot stand Bill Cowher’s mouth. Not what comes out of it (although he is a pompous ass) but his actual mouth. He looks like he spits when he talks.

Tennessee.
San Francisco @ San Diego
It’s a Spanish holy war! I dunno. I went with the home team.

49ers.
Carolina @ Tampa Bay
Tampa should win this. Just not by 8.5. And that panther is just sooo cool.

Carolina.
Denver @ Seattle
Poor Shannon. He’s so cute too. He shoulda stayed in the broadcast booth where I could see him.

Seattle.

Jacksonville @ Houston
Damn there’s a lot of games this week.

Houston.

New England @ Oakland
If I keep picking the Pats, they’ll eventually reward my loyalty.
New England.

**Chicago @ St. Louis[/]
I know I said this already but-- Damn there’s a lot of games this week.

Chicago.

11

Good call on the template. I think there are a lot of good bets out there this week, hopefully I’ll pick the right ones.

Sunday Games

Arizona @ Philadelphia 12:00pm (Philadelphia by 11)
Philly’s ticked after last week’s debacle and the Cards are without Boston and Jenkins, leaving them Sanders and McAddley as their starting WRs against one of the best defensive backfields in the league. Give it a couple of weeks and Shipp will be starting in AZ. Philly covers big.

Baltimore @ Miami 12:00pm (Miami by 4½)
Ugh. Who woulda thought Fiedler was so important to my 'phins? At this rate you could make a case for Fiedler as MVP. Seriously, Miami will probably win this game but it wouldn’t surprise me either way. A defensive or special teams score will be the difference. Baltimore covers.

Buffalo @ Kansas City 12:00pm (Kansas City by 3½)
Gah, not touching this one. KC seems to have settled the defensive troubles, but then the offense stops scoring. What’s up with that? I’ll call the upset just for the heck of it.

Cleveland @ Cincinatti 12:00pm (Cleveland by 3½)
Chad Johnson’s guaranteeing a win again, and to be honest, I had circled the Bengals before that. Cincy always plays the Browns tough, and it’s time for them to win a couple of games to screw up their draft position anyway. Cincy wins straight up.

Dallas @ Indianapolis 12:00pm (Indianapolis by 6½)
Two teams that I will no longer bet on this year (along with the Jags), you never know who’s gonna show up. Call it Colts win and cover.

Green Bay @ Minnesota 12:00pm (Green Bay by 6½)
Dome, dome, dome. Man did Detroit screw up when they made their new stadium “enclosed” but not a dome. I’ll stick with the curse of the dome and the curse of #1 on the power poll. Vikings win in a huge performance by Culpepper.

New Orleans @ Atlanta 12:00pm (Atlanta by 3)
ATL’s tie last week was, for all intents an purposes, a win for them when you break down the playoff race. I see a team starting to mature and meld before our eyes. I give it 6 months until Vick takes over Urlacher as the #1 jersey in sales. Falcons win, but push.

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee 12:00pm (Pittsburgh by 3)
I won’t bet this game because the teams know each other too well, but now that PIT has a passing game to go with the rush and the defense, they’re looking like the contenders everyone thought they were. Steelers win and cover.

Washington @ N.Y. Giants 12:00pm (N.Y. Giants by 3½)
No clue. Who are the Redskins starting at the skill positions this week anyway? I’ll take the 1/2 point and say Giants win by three allowing the 'Skins to cover.

Carolina @ Tampa Bay 3:05pm (Tampa Bay by 8½)
The line seems way to high. Carolina’s been keeping games close even in losses. I see a battle of FGs just like last time. Bucs win Panthers cover.

San Francisco @ San Diego 3:05pm (San Francisco by 2½)
I’m officially off of the Charger bandwagon. They handed the game to the Rams last week when they had them on the ropes. If they win, I may jump bck on, but I don’t see it happening. 49ers win and cover.

Denver @ Seattle 3:15pm (Denver by 5)
Another team that’s ticked off and will be beating on a weak opponent. Denver has to do it on the road though, so it won’t be the blowout of the Philly game. Bronco win and cover (barely).

Jacksonville @ Houston 3:15pm (Jacksonville by 6)
See above. I won’t touch a game with the Jags.

N.Y. Jets @ Detroit 3:15pm (N.Y. Jets by 3)
Wisdom says the Jets are on a roll and looking tough. The Lions are better than people think though and will surprise the J-E-T-S. Denver wins straight up.

New England @ Oakland 7:30pm (Oakland by 4)
Probably no snow this time, huh? Oakland’s looking for revenge and will get it, but only by 3. Possibly in OT.

Monday Night Football

Chicago @ St. Louis 8:00pm OFF
Danny Sheridan has the line at 10 and I’ll take the Rams. Now, my opinion on the Warner/Bulger thing - Stay with the hot hand. You started at 0-5 and can’t afford a loss. Warner’s ball was comng off his hand like a duck before the injury, and I don’t see that improving. If Bulger struggles in a game, replace him with Warner and if Warner shines he gets his starting job back. Until then, let Marc keep rolling. Everyone (including Warner) said Bulger was the best QB in practice before he took over anyway.

My bets this week:
BAL, CAR, PHI and BAL/MIA under, CAR/TB under, PHI/AZ over.

12

Not to nit-pick here too much, but calling Maddox a rookie is more than a bit of a stretch.

13

I meant to fix that, my bad.

14

Since we’re talking about Maddox, I thought I’d bring up a little tid-bit I saw in ESPN The Magazine. Cowher brought him in and offered him a two year contract, 1st year at $500k, 2nd at $750k.

Maddox countered with $500k for EACH year…

Smart guy when you think about it. Tough to cut a guy making only $500k. Now he’ll be a free agent and a hot commodity. If they had cut him for cap room (at the higher salary)? Career over.

15

What’s the rookie minimum these days? And what is the minimum for a guy in and out of the league, but with that valuable XFL/Arena experience?

16

Not sure is you’re being sarcastic or not, but, apparently, Arena league experience is quite valuable for QBs. The rookie minimum is meaningless to the discussion. I believe Maddox’s minimum would be $375k.

17

On par with the last few weeks, I made half these predictions Thursday, the other half tonite…

Oh, and I should mention that I’m really drunk tonite. Lets see if you can tell which picks were which.

Sunday Games

Arizona @ Philadelphia 12:00pm (Philadelphia by 11)
I suppose logic dictates that the shoes are dropping on Arizona. Now they have to go chilly Philly and play a good defense, last week’s collapse I believe was a fluke. Oh, and to make it even more interesting, Boston is out. Philly should be able to run against the softened Arizona front, and McNabb is still McNabb. If its Shipp or Jones starting is moot, neither will run overly well against this front 4. Plummer will need to really find some magic to pull out a W. Remember this team has snuck up and bitten Philly when it looked tough before, but they weren’t coming off embarassing losses then. The real question is if they’ll cover or not. When the spread gets up past 11 its always a iffy deal, even when it is the Cardinals. The way I see it, the Cardinals will not score on offense unless they get exceptional field position, and then it’ll probably be field goals. Philly hasn;t been clicking on offense, but they’ll be pissed off and coming out hard this week. Take the Eagles to win and cover, but if they press too much and turn the ball over, then it could be close…but they still win.

Baltimore @ Miami 12:00pm (Miami by 4½)
Things really came apart with the loss of Fiedler, how many of you thought he was that teams MVP? Liars. Jeff Blake has been looking pretty decent in B-more, and that defense isn’t quite as smothering, but still is pretty solid and makes plays. Ed Reed notwithstanding. The Fins are at home, and should be looking to really lay one on the Ravens after the embarrassment last week, but lets face it, they couldn’t move the ball against the Jets D, how are they gonna manage to this week? Miami’s D might make this game look like a baseball score, but I’m gonna take the Ravens to win, and definately to cover.

Buffalo @ Kansas City 12:00pm (Kansas City by 3½)
I have no idea what the Chiefs changed to get that defense playing, they held two damn good offenses in the Raiders and Niners to 10 and 17 points, but this week will be a real test. Frankly, I don’t think they’ll be able to pass it. Bledsoe and his WRs are too nasty to be held down by whats still the last ranked defense. Then again, the Bills D has the same problem with the KC offense. This is a very balanced game, and the Bills are going into a very hostile environment to boot.

Cleveland @ Cincinatti 12:00pm (Cleveland by 3½)
Hmm, Cincy sucks but Cleveland isn’t exactly a jugernaut. However I’m thinking Cleveland manages to pull this one out. They’ve been playing solid ball the last few weeks and even though this is a tough conference rivalry…it’s still the Bungles. Browns win and cover.

Dallas @ Indianapolis 12:00pm (Indianapolis by 6½)
I don’t trust these goddamn Colts. Every time I bet these guys they screw me. Dallas sucks ass, no doubt about it. Their defense seems to be solid, but I can’t see how they are scoring any points. 6½ is a real freindly spread in a seemingly lopsided game like this, which eats at me since I’m tempted to take it. These are the types of choices that drive me nuts, and get me to start hating teams. I must be a sucker, cause I’m taking Indy to win and cover.

Green Bay @ Minnesota 12:00pm (Green Bay by 6½)
I think this game is more dangerous than people will immediately assume. The spread indicates that I think. The Pack is smokin’ right now, and there’s nothing about the Viking defense taht should slow them down, even at home. The Vikes are set up for a QB contraversy. Culpepper should, and probably will start. Who knows how he’ll react to that, either way. The Vikes do have the weapons to hang with the Pack, but they haven’t shown the ability all season and I don’t know why you’d assume they would. Is Moss the kind of guy you expect to rally in the face of adversity? Didn’t think so. To make it all worse, the Pack is actually getting a little healthier. There’s a whole lot of circumstances where the Vikings could pull off the typical NFC Norris upset at home, but I don’t think I’ll bet on it. Pack wins and covers, especially juicy due to that 6½ point spread.

New Orleans @ Atlanta 12:00pm (Atlanta by 3)
The Atlanta offense is putting up some points these days, and its all on Vick, the WRs are average and the running game is feast or famine. The defense hasn’t exactly been very good at getting off the field lately, unless the give up a score. They came back on a decent defense last week and though they won’t admit it, they should be thrilled with the tie. New Orleans however leads the league in offense, and have all kinds of weapons and balance. The defense hasn’t been very good, and it could cost them a game at any time. These teams met just 3 weeks ago, so they’ll have the game plan’s fresh in their mind. If the Saints put together a average defensive effort they’ll win this one. I’m gonna take the points and guess that these to evenly matched teams split the season series. Sains win and cover.

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee 12:00pm (Pittsburgh by 3)
Maddox is on fire, and him and Burress seem to have some serious chemistry. How dumb does Cowher feel after all that effort he put into Kordell? Both offenses have been playing fairly well, and the Steelers D has come around. The Titans are an up and down team, and their defense is always gambling. That leaves the secondary on the hook for alotof big plays, and there’s little doubt that the new look Steelers can take advantage. Tennessee at home is dangerous against anyone, and I can’t say I’d be shocked to see them pull off the upset. The Titans have quietly won 4 straight, but this week are without Wycheck and probably won’t get Kearse back until next week. All that adds up to a Pittsburgh victory. Hate 3 point spreads, but I’ll take them to win and cover anyways.

Washington @ N.Y. Giants 12:00pm (N.Y. Giants by 3½)
These are a pair of ugly teams, neither really suck that bad on paper, but never the less they both are underachieving on a impressive scale. I don’t like the 3½ point spread, but the Giants should have the advantage in this game in every aspect. No use over analyzing it. G’ints win and cover.

Carolina @ Tampa Bay 3:05pm (Tampa Bay by 8½)
Well, looks like we may have caught a break here, the spread is out before the announcement of the Peppers substance suspension. Time will tell if its one of those “oops” types like Jim Miller, or something more devious. My first impression here was that Tampa would win, but that the Panthers D would hunker down as usual and make it tight. I’m thinking that with the repeated 4th quarter let downs and the loss of Peppers, this team will be flat and uninspired on the road. The Bucs are clicking and have seen some of the NFC powers struggle. They know that with New Orleans and Atlanta in their division that they’ll have to keep it rolling. It’d be foolish to think that the Panthers defense, which has been excellent all season, will just roll over, but I’m going to take a chance and guess that Tampa wins and covers.

San Francisco @ San Diego 3:05pm (San Francisco by 2½)
I don’t agree with the fact that the 49ers are favored here. Its a road game against a talented squad. Sure, the Chargers have struggeled as of late, but the 49ers haven’t exactly lit up the league. It won’t be a shootout, but I really expect the Chargers to get up big for this game. Everyone is comparing the Chiefs game to this Chargers match-up as far as LT is concerned. Thats crap, LT will go off. Chargers upset and cover.

Denver @ Seattle 3:15pm (Denver by 5)
Denver by just 5? One week they get all kinds of credit, then they lose one and evenyone abandons the bandwagon. The Raiders passed like crazy to exploit the Broncos D. The 'Hawks don’t have the guns to pull that off. Denver wins big, and covers.

Jacksonville @ Houston 3:15pm (Jacksonville by 6)
The Jags are one of many teams that have given me fits this year. I can’t predict them for shit. They got slapped by the new kids on the block last time they played, and frankly I’d be shocked if it happened again this week. Still, the Houston D is solid enough to keep this game close, especially at home. Jags win, but the Texans cover.

N.Y. Jets @ Detroit 3:15pm (N.Y. Jets by 3)
J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets. I hate this fucking team. I have no good reason for it, I just do. And to make it worse, I always pick them wrong. They are never as good as their record indicates, but they seem to find ways to cover whenever it seems really unlikely. Guess what, Detroit actually matches up really well on these guys. Power running and a evasive QB will make for a solid attack. If the D can stand up against the Jets sporadic offense, they’ll win in an upset at home. Lions win the upset.

New England @ Oakland 7:30pm (Oakland by 4)
Tuck Bowl 2!!! Fucking asshole Raider fans…get over it, you blew the game. Any tme one ref’s call can decide your game, you didn’t deserve to win it. Half the games in the NFL are decided on a close call, most are right…like that big one…and if it comes down to that, you didn’t exert your dominance enough to bitch. Sorry, had to get that off my chest. As to who’s the winner here? I have no damn clue. It won’t snow in Oakland, I assume. The way I see it, the Pats big defect is the Run D. The Raiders weakness on O is the running game lately. Still the Pats managed to find themselves down against the weak-ass Bears. That doesn’t inspire confidence. Both teams are hit-or-miss. I’m going to take the points and take the Pats to cover, and the Raiders to win in a shootout.

Monday Night Football

Chicago @ St. Louis 8:00pm OFF
What are the chances that my Bears can pull off the big upset? They’ll get better if Marshall’s out, but I don’t think we’ll have that info until Sunday. The match-up is all Rams, sadly. I wish Warner were coming back, because I’m telling you right now that the Rams early season struggles were because of Warner…not Martz, Faulk, or the O-line. I don’t know if he was hurting or not, if his thumb was bad, or if he just was in a funk, but whatever it was, he was throwing like Kordell. Bulger has been Warner-like in his accuracy. But, the Bears get no love and Bulger is in and might throw for 500 yards this time if Faulk is out. Take the Rams to win, but if Faulk is out the Bears might just be fiesty enough to make a game of it.

Here’s my drunken OMNI picks.

**Baltimore +4.5
Indianapolis -6.5
New Orleans +3.0
N.Y. Giants -3.5
Denver -5.0
**

I feel so dirty picking Indy, just so you know.

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It’s hard to decide Omni. Do you get aggressive when you’re drunk or do you mellow out?

You shouldn’t hate the Jets. You should pity them.

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I’m gonna guess that the picks you made last night are the ones that contain all the four letter words. :wink:

Peppers has appealed his suspension and will play today, if that affects your prediction.

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Here’s Jon Gruden’s take on this whole deal:

I also saw an interview with one of the Raiders DBs who said that a reason that they were on Brady likes flies was that he overheard the call go in from the Patriots bench while he was on the sideline talking up the side judge. He was complaining that Brady kept moving before the snap, heard the play call, and then went back and told the others what was coming up.