What percentage of Div 1-A college football players go pro?

[Flipshod]

That's my question.

I can't believe such a simple factoid has been so hard to find. I found out that 1 in 50,000 high school players go pro. I found out there are 118 Division 1-A schools, and that about 500 players a year go pro, but I don't know how many college players there are.

I'm a little worried about a possible decline in my googling prowess.

Someone please help me.

[Martin Hyde]

The only way to find out exactly how many players are on a college roster you have to look at every single individual roster or get lucky and find the exact number.

All division IA schools except the academies are limited to 85 players on their team who receive financial assistance (full or partial scholarships.)

So there are about ~10,000 scholarship players in D 1-A football. I can't even say exactly in this case because any school on probation probably only has like 82-83 kids on scholarship. And plus FAU and FIU the two new D 1-A schools aren't really Division 1-A as of right now and they aren't Division 1-AA they convert to "true" 1-A next season.

On top of the roughly 10,000 scholarship players just about every program has some walk ons, kids playing without scholarship, usually getting little PT but always hoping to prove themselves and become scholarship players.

I'd say 10,000 is a good ballpark number because in general there's only 1-3 schools at any given time on probation and in general it isn't walk-ons that go pro (though it does happen.)

[Martin Hyde]

Of course your original statistic needs to be clarified. If you just know that 500 players a year go to the NFL then it's not saying much.

NFL will recruit players from Division I-AA and some famous players are from I-AA (Steve McNair, Fiedler, for examples.) I'm sure if a good enough prospect came about then a D2 or D3 player would get picked up too (not sure if that's happened, ever, recently, or if any current players are from those schools.)

On top of that players from Canadian colleges can go pro in the NFL. Players from the CFL, and other football leagues can also go to the NFL as well.

I'd say .05% and below is a good estimate.

In reality I'd say 10% of those that actually get signed become everyday players.

[jimmmy]

NCAA says it is 2% or 1 in 50 -- though that is all three Divisions

http://www.ncaa.org/research/prob_of...ompeting2.html

I would add that free agency should properly be added into this calculation -- every year, with almost every team, are 1-2 undrafted Free agents who go on to play a while, sometimes at a high level.

Olympians and Track Stars have been given shots too.

[anson2995]

...and of course ,"going pro" can be defined in different ways. About 1000 new players sign NFL contracts every spring. Of that group, 600-700 are either injured or cut from their teams without ever playing in an NFL game. Of the 300-400 who do make it, roughly a third play in just a handful of games and never return for a second season.

As an editor of sports reference books, I can attest to the remarkable amount of turnover for NFL players. Last year (2003), 1032 new players appeared on NFL rosters... compared to 205 in Major League Baseball (2004 season) and 67 in the NBA (2003-04 season).

So there are more opportunites to play Pro Football than any other sport, but only because the careers are much shorter. Football is unlike any other sport in the frequency of injuries. The median career length for NFL players is three seasons. Less than 20% are still playing at age 30.

[bordelond]

Originally Posted by Martin Hyde

I'm sure if a good enough prospect came about then a D2 or D3 player would get picked up too (not sure if that's happened, ever, recently, or if any current players are from those schools.)

Div II and III, as well as NAIA players, make it onto NFL rosters all the time. They are certainly outnumbered by Div I-A and I-AA guys, but I wouldn't call them rarities.

[Captain Crunchy Crunch]

Originally Posted by jimmmy

NCAA says it is 2% or 1 in 50 -- though that is all three Divisions

http://www.ncaa.org/research/prob_of...ompeting2.html

I would add that free agency should properly be added into this calculation -- every year, with almost every team, are 1-2 undrafted Free agents who go on to play a while, sometimes at a high level.

Olympians and Track Stars have been given shots too.

Wild

For some reason, they use Senior Student-Athletes when computing the percentage: 12,600/250 = 0.0198. 12,600 is the number of Seniors in ALL of NCAA (Div. 1-A, Div. 1-AA, Div. II, and Div. III). Why are they restricting it to Seniors? What about Juniors who get drafted?

Now, there are 117 Div. 1-A schools. The average roster for Div. 1-A schools is ~ 100. 117 * 100 = 11,700. 11,700/250 = 0.021.

So, by a strange coincidence, the change of being drafted by the NFL from a Div. 1-A school is about the same...2%!!

[Captain Crunchy Crunch]

Of course, that final stat doesn't account for Div. 1-AA, Div. II, and Div. III, but the number of players who make it from those divisions is very low.

I'd say the 2% figure still about right if you account for those schools.

[Captain Crunchy Crunch]

And finally, the 2% stat is very misleading. Being drafted is one thing, making the final roster of an NFL team is another thing all together.

The chance of a Div. 1-A player making the final roster cut of an NFL team is probably ~ .5%.

So, stay in school kids!

[livvil21]

A Anson2995

Do yo have any references I can see for your stats? Not to doubt you, I'm doing a paper for my sports ethics class. Thanks.

[Duke]

Originally Posted by anson2995

...and of course ,"going pro" can be defined in different ways. About 1000 new players sign NFL contracts every spring.

Don't forget the CFL, the United Football League, the various indoor leagues...sure, the money's not great for some of those leagues, but it's still going pro in a sense.

[Colibri]

Moved to the Game Room from GQ.

Colibri
General Questions Moderator