Just curious, in your opinion are there any 2 people who could form a ticket and run as Independants in 2008 with any chance of winning the Presidency? They can be any 2 people eligible to run, and you can choose which one would run as PotUS and which as VP. They don’t need to be people you’d expect would form a coalition, or indeed have any real interest in being President and you can assume they have a billionaire bankrolling their campaign.
I’m a Guest, and can’t search, so if there’s been a similar thread I’d appreciate a link.
I doubt that any independent/third party candidate could win, or even make a respectable showing. The “two-party system” is so well entrenched in society and in the voters’ minds that it would be difficult to overcome.
For most voters, even if a candidate came along who agreed with them 100% on every major issue they would have problems with “throwing away their vote” because nobody could win without the backing of one of the major parties.
In other words, it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Oprah.
Except she wouldn’t want to give up her power to become a mere president.
Would she really have to give up her power, though?
The best way to demonstrate the unlikeliness of a non-member of the two major parties to win the Presidency is to look at the success of such persons at winning Governorships in this country.
By my count, it has only happened five times since 1970. In these cases, one of two things has always applied, either 1) Members of a party abandon their candidate to support a third-party candidate (this happened in both Alaska and Connecticut in 1990), or 2) Fatigue with both parties results in voter unrest (Maine in 1974 and 1994, and Minnesota in 1998). All of these times, the winning third-party candidate was either already an established politician in a major party or otherwise held some sort of celebrity status. Only once have any of these Governors won re-election, and they have yet to succeed in any major states.
With that in mind, then, I find it highly unlikely.
Jesus and… nope, just Jesus. Nobody else has a shot.
Even he might have some problems defending his policies of loving one’s enemy. It’s not a very popular position these days.
I don’t think anyone could do it. Even the most popular candidates would have trouble raising enough money and support without a party infrastructure helping them out.
Major states like California, for instance?
Even bleaker is the picture of third party representation on the Congressional level. In the same timefram as the governors, we’ve had, what, one independent in the House (Bernie Sanders) and one in the Senate (Jim Jeffords), both from the same state (Vermont), neither of whom is seeking re-election to his current office (Jeffords is retiring and Sanders is running for his Senate seat) and one of whom wasn’t an independent untl he got so fed up with his party that he had to leave.
So yeah, no way will a third party candidate win in 2008 or any other time in the foreseeable future.
Major as in any of the 20 largest states (by population).
Since you’ve brought up independents in Congress, it should be noted that the last pure Independent to serve in either the House or the Senate was Frazier Reams, back in the early 1950’s. There have been several others, but the tendency is for them to either be running with the basically overt backing of one of the parties (such as in Sanders’ case) or at least with the support of a large faction of one of the parties.
It ain’t gonna happen, but I’d say the following might be able to eke out a respectable distant third as an independent:
a) Colin Powell - I don’t think his reputation has been tarnished too badly by his association with the Bush administration.
b) John McCain - I’d vote for him. He’s a republican and tows the party line when necessary, but may be enough of a loose cannon to run as an independent if he couldn’t win the primary.
c) Bill Cosby - Is there anyone on the planet that doesn’t like him? Plus, he’s more political than Oprah and doesn’t mind calling a spade a spade.
hand in the air
Come on, he’s a decent comedian, but that’s it. I ask a little more of my heads of state (or would, if I lived in a country where I had any say in the matter).
<Kang>
Go ahead! Throw away your vote! Bwahahaha!
</Kang>
Don’t blame me - I voted for Kodos.
Put me down in the ain’t gonna happen column.
In 1992 Ross Perot put his considerable personal fortune (no financing problems) into running as an independent candidate. He got 19% of the popular vote. In only one state (Maine) did he even get 30% of the vote.
In 1996 Perot failed to get even 15% in any state.
In 1968 George Wallace won four states, but only gathered 13.5% of the popular vote.
In 1948 the Democratic party splintered into three factions. The liberal and conservative factions combined only won 5% of the popular vote.
You have to go back to 1912 for an independent candidate to be a serious threat. That was Theodore Roosevelt – a former President. And he got only 27% of the popular vote and won only 6 states.
Seriously, I think a Jesus/Oprah ticket might get 25% of the popular vote and win a handful of states.
While it would never actually happen, I think this ticket would make a little noise:
Oprah Winfrey/John Madden.
Seriously. Oprah’s going to rally the women and the African-American vote, and Madden gets the younger voters (because of Madden NFL) and the male voters.
It’s crazy enough that it just might work.
Nobody.Campaign financing makes it impossible.The cost is prohibitive and the system is set up to make it impossible. Perot with all his money could not keep up. We need public financing of elections.Then it would slowly become possible.
What if they were funded by Bill Gates and thus money were no object?
Still have to get onto the ballot so people can vote for you.
And in most states, only the major party candidates are automatically on the ballot. All others have to go thru various procedures, most often gathering signatures (a whole lot of signatures, in some states) and presenting them to the state for verification. The procedures are delibrately difficult, to try to keep only serious candidates on the ballot, making it easier for the voters. (Remember the ballot for the special governor recall election in California, with hundreds of candidates?)
Why not Bill Gates? He could certainly get his message out, he’s extremely bright and articulate. He seems like the sort who could present an opinion with which you disagree without finding him disagreeable. And he wouldn’t owe anybody any favors once he got to Washington.
I think he’d hate it, frankly.
As for the current players I agree that only a currently identified party guy could do it.
Yes, McCain could do it if he’s locked out of the nomination through the primaries.
Curiously, I think Wesley Clark could put up a decent independent candidacy if he were to go that route. I don’t think he’d win but he could make a lot of noise.
Jesus: wrong on crime, wrong on taxes…WRONG FOR AMERICA!