Let’s say that the Republicans rebuke Donald, and he runs but is not nominated in 2024. Somebody else is nominated. He still has a large loyal following and wants to be President again. How likely is it he would run as an independent? It would undoubtedly split the Republicans into two camps. Is he egotistical enough to try a stunt like that even if it is doomed to failure?
IMO only if he feels it will result in them coming to him groveling for mercy. Which they may if the MAGA faction then decides to go scorched earth and just primary out anyone who stuck to supporting the official ticket.
One of Trump’s most longstanding personality traits is his simply epic levels of pettiness. He holds grudges over the smallest of slights for years, decades even. I can’t even imagine how over the top his petty revenge on the GOP for rejecting him would be. He’d gladly burn down the entire country just to stick it to them, if that happened.
IIRC, a lot of states have rules where basically if you run in a primary for a party, you can’t come back and be on the ballot as an independent.
I could totally see him telling all his supporters to stay home though.
As a true independent he doesn’t have much of a chance, but if enough MAGgots take over the Republican Party and make it their own, the old school Republicans still in power will once again bend over backwards to accommodate them just to keep the power they still have.
If the Republicans somehow (by waving a magic wand?) reject Trump, most of his followers would stick with him, and he’d probably get most Republican elected officials to follow as well. Basically it would be the end of the Republicans in the same way that the Whigs disappeared back in the day. It wouldn’t, however, mean a victory for the Democrats. All it would really mean is a change in label from Republican to some other name.
Of course this is de facto what has already happened. All that’s left to be decided is whether or not Trump and the MAGAs keep the name Republican or rebrand themselves as a way of rejecting the Liz Cheneys and Adam Kinzingers of the party.
I guess the question is, what percentage of current Republicans would move over to, and vote for, a Trump MAGA Party versus staying with the old-line Republican Party? I think it would split pretty evenly given the current climate, but that’s just a guess.
Given how Cheney and Kinzinger are the only congressional Republicans opposing Trump, my guess is that it would be more like 95/5 in favor of those joining the Trump party.
ETA. Which is why I think the only way it happens is as a “screw you” tactic to those last few holdouts, as a way to tell them “if you won’t leave, we’ll just kick you out and leave you with the old name.”
Another angle is that if he think candidate status will give him a get-out-of-indictment-free card, it makes more sense to go independent and guarantee that he’ll be a candidate until Election Day 2024 than to vie for the Republican nomination if there’s even a small chance some upstart would steal it away from him.
I don’t think they plan to create a new party. They are taking the Republican Party, name and all.
While many states have “sore loser” laws that prevent state and Congressional candidates who lose a party primary from appearing on the general election ballot, whether and how these restrictions apply to Presidential candidates is much less clear. Obviously, presidential candidates routinely lose a state’s primary and still appear on that state’s general election ballot, since the nomination is national. Just the way these laws are drafted often leaves it ambiguous whether they apply to Presidential candidates – only a handful of states explicitly apply sore loser laws to them.
Still, logistically it would be difficult for Trump to organize an independent campaign for President, especially if he waited until after the Republican primaries were over. Many states’ filing deadlines would have passed, and he’d have to quickly spin up the machinery in the remaining states to meet the signature requirements and other legal hoops he’d need to jump through. Given the track record of his legal team, I wouldn’t put money on him being able to pull it off.
Yes, if he can make money out of it. Keep in mind, it’s always about the grift with him.
^ This.
Let’s say the Murdochs decide to go all-in on DeSantis, and instruct Hannity, Carlson, and Ingraham to trash Donald at every opportunity.
Many Trump fans will be confused and disoriented, but they will eventually fall in line as the GOP wish (i.e. to vote for DeSantis).
And Donald will go nuclear. Nothing will energize him like the chance to “take down” the Murdochs and the pro-DeSantis GOP (which will be most of the actual officials and office-holders by then).
This is a very valid point. Trump might have to resort to telling his followers—reduced in number by this point, but still several million strong—that either they should write in his name and decline to vote for ANY other Republican, or they should skip voting altogether.
Even if he ends up an influence-bereft shut-in at Mar-a-Lago, he will relish having screwed over the Republicans. That will keep him going for quite a while.
Especially as voters elect Electors and not the candidate. Is that a distinction that would hold up in court? I don’t know.
Answer to the Thread title question is near-zero, because he will win the GOP nomination if his health holds.
The question seems to be wishful Democratic thinking.
I don’t think he’d run as an independent. He knows he’d lose. A decent Democratic candidate (always an unknown when it comes to Democrats) can beat a split Republican party. Trump won’t run if he doesn’t think he can win, and all the party appartchiks the Republicans have put into place in various states won’t screw their organizations to help a third-party Trump.
The real answer is based on if running as an independent (given when he makes that decision) can he get on all 51 ballots.
He said pretty much this the other day; that he wants to run and win so he can’t be prosecuted. (In days of old, people ran for office because they thought they could do good for the country.)
There has to be money in it. Yeah, the adoration is something, and frankly, I doubt if he’s worried about jail. But there has to be a way to make boatloads of money for him to seriously consider running as an independent.
Maybe he’ll start a political party and charge hefty recurring dues to belong to it. He doesn’t even have to run. He can perpetually promise to run in the next selection while constantly raising money. Being the gadfly is easier than being president anyway.