Who do you believe will be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?
Trump
DeSantis
Someone else
0voters
Personally, I believe that Trump will run again because it’s just about the only way to vacate any federal charges or convictions that he might have. I 100% believe that he will run even if he’s been charged by the DoJ and convicted by a jury of his peers. If elected, he will then immediately pardon himself, the case will eventually end up in the Supreme Court and I think that they will rule that his pardon power is unlimited for federal crimes.
IOW, we will then have a king instead of a president.
Trump will run and get the nomination assuming he can legally run. Otherwise it will be DeSantis in all probability since he’s the most MAGA. If Trump runs and doesn’t get the nomination, then I think it is possible you could have a Bernie Bros situation where the MAGA stay home by feeling betrayed by the GOP.
There’s no way Trump doesn’t run if he’s able to. He just couldn’t take the humiliation. And based on the available information he’d win again, there are just that many GOP voters who think he’s the best bet for winning and either love him or are willing to hold their nose and vote for him.
I really hope DeSantis runs, and announces before TFG, as a shot across the bow “I’m the one in charge now!”. We all should really be encouraging Ronny-boy to run and to announce ASAP.
What could be better for Democrats across the nation than those two tearing each other down? We have our candidate, so let those two feud-away and take all the headlines. Seeing how stubborn each of them is, it would be hard to see either of them back down from a fight. It would be awesome, popcorn-worthy, must-watch TV!
I don’t think a path to a pardon through the Supreme Court is a given. If he’s convicted of a federal crime, and someone like Pence gets elected, a deal will be struck (Pence will pardon him because that’s what a good Republican does).
I don’t think Trump will run because running for president while under federal indictment is tricky at best, and I don’t think he could handle the humiliation of losing twice. It would destroy him.
I’m guessing DeSantis. Murdoch has no more use for Trump and has already started Fox’s pivot away from Trump. As goes Fox, so goes MAGAland. Tucker might resist until his Russian handlers tell him to get with the program. Hannity has never had an original thought in his head and will do as he’s told, just as he has all along. (Seriously, back in the W administration, you could predict exactly what Hannity would bash Colmes with by checking the GOP press releases for the day.) Ingraham moving away. Murdoch and his business cronies would rather have a competent effective fascist in DeSantis than an idiot fascist like Trump, who can’t be trusted to focus and get shit done.
It depends on what he’s convicted of. The 14th Amendment would certainly prevent it.
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any state, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any state legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any state, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.
The January 6th Committee has been working to show that Trump was directly responsible for insurrection, and if found guilty of such he would no longer be able to serve as POTUS.
So long as Trump isn’t actually in prison he will run. However I think that his influence in the Republican party is on the wane, and will probably continue to decline over the next two years, such that I would put DeSantis as odds on favorite to win the nomination. The big question in my opinion will be whether Trump’s influence will remain significant enough that his inevitable claims that the Republican primary was rigged and stolen will be enough to disrupt the 2024 Republican convention, divide the party and torpedo DeSantis in the general.
Incidentally this is probably the best reason (not saying that it’s a good one) for not convicting and incarcerating Trump due to the mishandling of documents. An incarcerated Trump will back DeSantis wholeheartedly since a DeSantis pardon is the only hope he has.
Sure, but the likelihood is that committee will be gone in a couple of months, before they finish their work.
My guess is that Trump will be the nominee. Trump will definitely run unless his health prohibits him from doing so. He is psychologically incapable of willingly playing second fiddle to someone else, even if that might be to his ultimate benefit.
That is a nice (and very short) list of the specific charges Trump will NOT be charged with, which leaves a shitload of charges Republicans are willing to ignore to elect him.
Well, Cheney won’t be on it after January 3 at any rate. She’ll no longer be a representative. She lost her party’s nomination so she’s not even running for reelection.
I honestly believe that, in his mind, he didn’t lose. He won’t lose the next election either regardless of the vote count. Narcissists have a keen ability to protect themselves from reality.