Now I’m going to call another–and I’m fairly confident I will be correct: Trump won’t be the GOP nominee this year.
Sounds crazy, right? Trump currently has these advantages:
He currently has the full support of the RNC.
Based on polling and the two contests he has already won, he seems on track to win the requisite number of delegates to win.
Nikki Haley, while now starting to put mud in Trump’s eye (which at the very least will be helpful to our side in the General), does not seem poised to overtake him.
But… here is my thesis: Trump is going to have the delegates he needs at the convention, but it will be the conventional wisdom by then that he can’t win and will bring total disaster upon the GOP if he is nominated.
The unstoppable force (Trump) is going to meet the unmovable object (GOP fear of total destruction). It’s going to be messy and crazy on an unprecedented level!
It’s not just me. We are starting to see articles on dailykos.com about Trump’s growing problems and a feeling that the momentum is shifting. Here are what I see as the reasons, many of which are in no way my original observations:
Haley and Biden are successfully trolling Trump. He is losing his shit on the daily. Haley in particular, being a woman, really gets under the Orange Skinsuit.
Trump’s anemic wins in Iowa and New Hampshire demonstrate a rising tide of Never Trumpers among independents and Republicans. A wee bit o’ the ol’ flop sweat is starting to creep out of the pores.
Trump’s legal troubles are, at the very least, a massive drain on his energy.
The media is beginning to comment on Trump’s growing number of oral flubs and fuckups, which seem like nothing less than oncoming dementia (confusing Haley and Pelosi multiple times in one speech–WTF?!).
Trump looks like dogshit (even for Trump). His health is failing fast. Death or incapacity by the time of the convention no longer seem like distant possibilities.
Finally, Trump is more unhinged than ever. He has lost all message discipline. Although his biggest cultists will forgive anything, there is a line he can cross that causes the TPTB in the GOP and right-wing billionaires to want to ditch him (e.g., the Koches switching to Haley).
Together, the factors are turning into a big ball of shit that is gaining speed and size as it rolls down Shit Mountain. The acceleration toward doom is palpable.
What do I think is going to happen? It’s hard to predict events arising out of total chaos, but here’s my stab at it:
Haley either wins or comes close to winning South Carolina. The faint L on Trump’s forehead grows darker.
Trump wins Super Tuesday and “clinches” the nomination, but Haley does pretty well herself.
The aforementioned shit ball reaches critical mass. It becomes CV that Trump will definitely lose the General–if he’s even alive by then. The media are hinting at if not openly predicting downballot disaster.
A cabal arises within the GOP to push Trump out by any means. The may promise open civil war in the GOP if Trump is the nominee.
A: Trump does the unthinkable–he bows out of the race and supports Haley (needless to say, Trump is heavily bribed in order to do this).
B: Or Trump is somehow pushed out of the nomination at the convention. IIRC, it is against the rules to nominate anyone with felony indictments. If not, the rules can be changed to something like this.
The GOP is stupid, but it ain’t suicidal. There is a lot of gravy on the train, and they’re not just going to give it up as they did in 2018, 2020, and 2022. The only thing that can save the GOP at this stage is ditching Trump–and they will!
Indeed. He is also the ultimate vote motivator for our side. It will be nuclear winter for the GOP if he is the candidate. That’s why they will ditch him. Haley will still lose, but it won’t be downballot suicide.
Quick nitpick: The Kochs were never for Trump. They’ve always been for Haley.
I long ago said Trump wouldn’t be the nominee, but I got cold feet because his staying power seemed unassailable. I do agree that’s changing now, though it may be too little, too late.
I actually dread a Haley candidacy more than a Trump one so at this point, I’m kind of pulling for Trump.
I don’t think so. Ditching Trump means letting the bull out of the china shop and into your house. If Trump is the nominee, the house probably cedes control of the legislative branch for a cycle, but they can hope that he’ll be tired of this all by 2028. They still have the Supreme Court and they’ll have it for a very long time.
Just losing is no big deal in the long run. It’s normal politics.
A scorned Trump will wage war on the GOP until the day he dies, agd and he can definitely do real damage to the party. I think he could feasibly split the GOP.
These two bullet points go hand in hand. And taken together, they might explain why Haley stays in the race way longer than she might against another opponent.
If there are powerful Republican forces (e.g. the Kochs) that have been watching aghast as Trump steers the party into a ravine … it seems plausible that some would happily prop up Haley’s campaign as a means to demonstrate that Trump can’t/won’t beat Biden in the general. “See … he has less than 2/3 of the registered Republican primary voters! And less than 1/3 of independents! That’ll be game over!”
Exactly, but I think he has enough juice to create an actual schism rather than just playing spoiler. I think a MAGA party, led by a vindictive Trump, could actually win a couple of seats in the house and maybe do some real damage to the GOP’s ground game in deep red territory.
I think it’s win-win for us, since Trump will definitely lose against Biden for all the same reasons that the GOP will not (I speculate) give him the nomination.
This is my take as well. Trump has far too much to lose if he ISN’T the candidate. He has more than enough money and support to run on his own, and declare everyone else traitors. Which will also likely tank everyone Republican down ballot from him. No, the GOP will continue to cave, and figure they’ll play the long game.
The GOP must be rebuilt from the ground up by people who have actually read, understand and care about the Constitution. And following rules. And obeying norms.
Yeah, and this is lose-lose for the GOP. If they keep him, they are going to keep losing. Trump, if he can stand up outside the penitentiary, will definitely run again in 2028.
If Haley were to get the nod, his head would explode. The thing is, however, he won’t have time to get on the ballot in many, if any, states, right? He will at least have a very hard time getting some sort of independent party apparatus up and running.
If the GOP goes with Haley, they can start pretending to be normal again and save some Senate races, etc. I think it is the better of the two choices for them.
