So do you think Trump has a chance in the General?
To quote a famous doctor, He’s dead, Jim.
Most non-MAGAs are purged by now, and the cruel and crazy quotient is too high for the GOP to rebuild with its current people. Moreover, Trump has permanently tainted the brand. I don’t think a reanimation is possible.
Absolutely. Right now, I’m counting on him to win.
Not, I hope, as in wanting him to win!
Was gonna change it. I mean expecting. If I had to bet $1000 today, I’d put it on him. Now, that’s a fine bet either way for me: I win, I’m up a grand. I lose, I’m up a president actually want.
Very well. I gave six reasons why I don’t think such an expectation is warranted. Further, Trump already lost to Biden–and that was before he denied the election and, you know, fomented an insurrection. I don’t see any reason why his chances would be better now than in 2020.
I can see arguing that it will be a close run thing, but I can’t see “expecting.”
Donate the grand to the Biden campaign!
It’s OK to write out what you mean. There are no SDMB rules that you must use a potentially unrecognized initialism.
You’re not serious, surely. Or by “candidacy” do you just mean that you think Trump has no chance of winning and she does?
(Emphasis added.)
What do these mean?! j/k
This.
The current Republican office-holders are not just crazy enough to drive off the cliff–it’s their goal! Listen to their words; they don’t want to be a majority party with governing responsibilities. They to want whine and rage about everything, so they can keep grifting their base. It’s much easier for them to not be in power, and letting Trump be their nominee is perfect for that. Remember 2016: their plan was never to win.
It’s this.
I agree with you. I think Trump is the nominee and wins.
Trump motivates the opposition vote, yes, but Biden is being seriously damaged in the younger demographic re Israel. Whether you think they’re right or wrong (not arguing either way, that’s a massive hijack), the chatter among the under-35s is very negative on Biden’s performance, and that will impact turnout. And Biden can’t beat Trump without the same full court turnout as before.
It’ll be close, but Trump will be reelected.
The last sentence is self-contradictory: if you think it will be close thus far from the election, then there is no reason to come down on either side.
I think any Democrat who is making arguments like the above is in the mindset of fearing the worst in order to prepare for such an outcome psychologically, but that doesn’t make for good prognostication.
Citing one issue, such as Israel, as what will do Biden in doesn’t make sense. At lot can change with any one issue before the election.
My argument for Biden’s victory is simple: He beat Trump the last time, and Trump has only done a ton of evil and crazy shit since then that has hurt him. Further, Trump is getting worse by the day. An issue here and a poll there is not enough to overcome this argument, IMO.
They have to get elected though, and even a minority party has a critical mass that it can’t afford to lose. The grift you correctly cite requires the party always to be on the verge of winning–but not quite. Take the House here, take the Senate there, win the presidency now and then while always preferring a divided government.
I think this was the plan until Trump became president. MAGA, however, wants actual authoritarian control over the country. The game has changed. (Of course, when MAGA is not in control, the grift will continue.)
This is the exact reason folks like Mitch McConnel who reeled at the events of January 6th backed off rather quickly. Trump threatened to start a third party and the Republicans were too cowardly to fight him.
Maaaaybe.
I mean yes, obviously, of course they’d love that.
But Marjorie Taylor Greene, as the archetypal example, is clearly having the time of her life. I don’t think she really gives a particular shit about whether or not she gets where she’s going. She’s just enjoying the ride.
The folks doing stuff like Project 2025 aren’t MAGA. They’re entrenched political operatives who are running the same playbook they’ve been running for decades. Consolidate power in the executive branch, kill off social programs, limit the wrong kinds of personal freedoms, make the rich richer.
This is such an important point. Haley is part of this movement, and that’s why she scares me so much.
Next to MAGA, she looks “acceptable” – but in reality, the Republican Party used Trump to further their agenda more than Trump used the Republican Party to further his. Haley would simply be the next logical step in their efforts.
MAGA voters want authoritarian control… as you point out, most of the GOP pols just want to grift. Of course, they would not oppose Dictator Trump. They are mostly just spinless enablers, but a certain number of them are more than that.
Yup, having fun with the crazy.
Right, but they are pretty synergistic with MAGA (not that you said otherwise).
I think that was the 2020 plan, but they’ve moved on. Look at what the “Freedom” Caucus is doing. It’s the perfect minority-party set up. They’re happy to let the rest of the Republican party burn. Their behavior works better when there’s no inconvenient and boring responsibility to run the government.
The rest of us can’t take this for granted, of course. We have to mobilize, not just in blue states, but in every state. Even the red ones. But I don’t think they’re actually trying to take over, but instead are entrenching themselves.